winds some, win some

by lboros on Jul 20, 2006 8:58 AM EDT in News Comment 158 comments

my friends at Baseball Analysts invited me to do another guest piece, following up on a study i did last year about first-pitch swinging. the upshot: hack first, ask questions later. head on over there and take a look.

re last night at busch: that did not look like fun at the ol' ballyard. one of my earliest memories is of just such a storm; i was 3, water was pouring into the basement, and my grandfather very stubbornly refused to leave the kitchen table -- exactly like paul newman in mr and mrs bridge. i'll resist the temptation to apply the deluge metaphor to the first two games of the series; too many people still without power to trifle about it.

carpenter's really starting to get into a groove. he's 5-1 in his last 8 starts, allowing just 50 baserunners in 57 innings over that span; he has more strikeouts (52) than baserunners allowed. he has crept up to 4th place in sports illustrated's cy young predictor, one place behind -- ready for this? -- jason isringhausen. to the predictor, i guess, 26 saves are 26 saves; doesn't matter how much angst some of'm produce in the hometown fans. here are isringhausen's era's by month: 6.00, 0.77, 5.25, 0.90. . . . . must be bumming cigarettes off marquis or something. he's no cy young, but i'll still take the guy. his walk rate has finally started to flatten out -- just 3 in 10 innings pitched this month. the league is hitting only .203 off him this season.

as long as carp and izzy are handy come october, the cardinals will have a fighting chance in every series.

jim edmonds has now hit as many homers in his last 54 at-bats as he did in the preceding 206; i just can't get over it. clearly the injury(ies) -- shoulder, abdomen, whatever -- has healed, and he he has resumed taking full rips after slap-hitting for about two months. edmonds' strikeout rates tell the tale. as a cardinal he has whiffed in 30 percent of his at-bats while compiling an isolated power of .262. swing hard, strike out a lot, hit a lot of home runs -- it's a formula. here are jim's strikeout rates and his isolated power, month by month, for 2006:

	k/ab	iso
april	.320	.214
may	.157	.058
june	.197	.164
july	.278	.542

in may and june he became a different player -- put the ball in play more often but with a lot less authority. the fact that he's striking out a ton again is a cause for rejoicing. he may yet get to 30 home runs . . . . that $10m option st louis holds on him for 2007 looks a lot more appealing today than it did three weeks ago.

as long as we're discussing resurgent outfield bats, cory haerther homered again for springfield last night. he has bashed four this week, nearly equaling his total (5) for the first 14 weeks of the year. his batting line by month sorta mirrors edmonds':

	avg	obp	slg
april	.284	.326	.506
may	.214	.309	.386
june	.190	.190	.254
july	.328	.386	.594

thanks to sackmann's new and improved Minor League Splits Database for that data.

no p.m. post for me today; i'll be in a classroom helping young editors-to-be sharpen their scythes and shivs and other professional instruments. baseball news often breaks when i'm called away from the laptop, so don't be at all surprised if the cardinals announce a trade this afternoon . . . . .

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call-in number for scores

Anyone out there know of a good number one can call to get scores? I'm going to be computer-less for a week.

On Edmonds, I've long been struck by how he seems to have months-long hot and cold streaks. I'd love to see an analysis comparing, say, his month-by-month variations to the league average.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jul 20, 2006 9:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

scores #

I use this toll free service to give me the scores: 1-800-555-8355

Everything is voice automated, so you'll have to say "Sports" to get to the sports section, then "Baseball" to enter baseball section, then "Cardinals" for Cardinals scores.

by 5STL27 on Jul 20, 2006 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you have a Yahoo account

not a pay account, just an email acount, you can have scores sent to an email address like your cell phone or pager. Just poke around son sports.yahoo.com to subscribe.

by sdrone on Jul 20, 2006 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, guys

With the up and down way things are going, I'm almost tempted to put myself incomunicado.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jul 20, 2006 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Storm was very serious....

I got a call from my mom about 8:30 and there were trees down everywhere. Plate glass windows were blown out of homes. She said that it came up suddenly and the pressure just dropped and this huge wind roared in and started tearing the place apart. Three out of four bridges crossing the river were closed because of accidents, apparently the wind just picked up tractor trailers and threw them around like toys.

She was scared because my dad was at work and wasn't answering his cell phone, which he answers ALL THE TIME. Her cell phone was going dead so she was calling from the car, parked in the garage because she has a car charger. My dad got through to my brother, who lives a few blocks from them, so he went over and told my mom he was ok and made sure nothing was wrong with the house. It took my Dad twice as long to get from St. Louis to Madison County because city streets were covered with down power lines, trees, and glass. Thank god, everyone is accounted for and all my families houses NOTHING happened to, even though about a 1/3rd of the homes in the area have some damage, from shingles blown off to trees in people's living room.

450,000 people still without power as of this morning and it supposed to be a typically hot, hot St. Louis summer day. If you have elderly loved ones, get them to a cooling center.

If you are familar with St. Louis and want some accounts of the damage and stories, stltoday.com on the main page has some accounts and pictures.

Puts things in persepective.

by Brock20 on Jul 20, 2006 9:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Living far, far away

but able to watch the FSN telecast, I knew the weather was dangerously bad when Joe Buck talked about seeing "green skies." Living in Northeast Arkansas, (another pathway along Tornado Alley) "green skies" has long been my personal signal to head for the bathtub, and pull the movable mattress over the heads of myself and my family. (I live in the Delta section of town... there are no basements here because you hit water about two feet down. The bathroom is the safest place in the house in the event of high winds/tornadoes.)

With over 40,000 people at the ballpark, I was amazed to learn that only 30 were treated for injuries, and only five were hospitalized! Tarps and concession stands and be repaired and replaced... people can't.

And then they got the ballgame in without incident! Praise the Deity of your choice that the weather wasn't any worse!

From the guy in the Glenn Hall replica sweater,

by The Ol Goaler on Jul 20, 2006 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Deadpin

http://www.deadspin.com/sports/baseball/boy-this-busch-stadium-place-is-great-188658.php

Here's an eyewitness report from Deadspin's resident Cardinal fan, Will.

by jroman on Jul 20, 2006 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I watched

KMOV's coverage online this morning, and they had video from a fan's cellphone. Jeez, what a clusterf*ck that musta been.

by cardsrul on Jul 20, 2006 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just learned...

My cousins were at the game last night. My cousin-in-law had to go pick them up because Metrolink went down.

by Brock20 on Jul 20, 2006 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was at the game...

we basically hung out on the concourse below the leftfield section. So I couldn't see much besides outside the stadium. Wind was kicking up a lot of dirt from the construction site at old busch. Got hit with it coming off the Metro. Pretty gross. It was raining and the hard wind was blowing stuff around (vending carts and stuff), but I was never too scared. The first row of the blechers was flooded and I think some other lower areas. Home plate was a mess b/c the tarp was blown off of it. Great game afterwards though.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 20, 2006 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stadium trouble?

I heard that last night there was some flooding in the stadium. I have no idea where, or of the specifics. I work across from the stadium, and it looks like they are doing some work to the green section right behind home plate. Does anyone know anything about this?

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's some great pics

at Foxsports and video at kmov.com.

by cardsrul on Jul 20, 2006 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Carpenter's pitch count

If i'm not mistaken Carpenter had a pitch count under 80 pitches last night. I understand that he was probably taken out because of the rain delay messing up his normal routine.

My question: Where is a website I can go and look up the amount of pitches thrown by a pitcher in a game?

by 5STL27 on Jul 20, 2006 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

just go to mlb.com

and pull up carpenter's stat page; click on "game log" and it will show you his pitch count (and the # of strikes) for every appearance

by lboros on Jul 20, 2006 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks

for some reason I usually avoid going to MLB.com, but i'm glad they have this much detailed stats. thanks again.

by 5STL27 on Jul 20, 2006 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Izzy wins the Cy Young...

Then Encarnacion is my National League MVP.

by dspeer on Jul 20, 2006 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and . . .

Miguel Cabrera wins a gold glove.

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and...

TLR is coach of the year.

by effin fisk on Jul 20, 2006 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they were looking for antonyms...

If LaRussa gets this team past the first round of the playoffs, he may have a shot.

LaRussa has his warts, but it amazes me how much grief a Hall of Fame manager takes. You'll be wishing he was still here when he's gone...

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jul 20, 2006 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

tongue-in-cheek

i usually like TLR. usually. just havin' some fun. Figured it would get a response.

by effin fisk on Jul 20, 2006 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TLR should be arrested...

jailed, and butt-raped for what he did to a young Matt Morris and Alan Benes. Just completely destroyed Benes arm. Morris was never the same after shoulder surgery. People forget how electric these two looked during the 96 season.

If you think I just don't like TLR/Dunc, I think Dusty Baker should be executed for the problems Wood and Prior have had.

I think Benes should sue TLR for all the lost salary he would have recieved if he never was injured.

by BigJawnMize on Jul 20, 2006 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

How exactly was it TLR's fault that Morris and Benes got hurt?

Also, can you name a franchise that HASN'T had a young pitcher have arm trouble. Im waiting for this reply.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Jul 20, 2006 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, please back up these outlandish comments

Even with regard to Prior and Wood, many observers have said that their problems stem either from luck or violent throwing motions. I have a hard time blaming Dusty.

I feel the same way about Benes/Morris. What could/should Tony have done differently?

OC Cards Fan

by OCCardsFan on Jul 20, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't it seem

that so far this year LaRussa has been quite conservative with young Reyes? How is that consistent with your charges?

The Cardinal Curmudgeon

by lawman3842 on Jul 20, 2006 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Morris...

He had a great season in 2001 (22 wins, 3.16 ERA). and a good season in 2002 (17 wins, 3,42 ERA).

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 20, 2006 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we don't need

butt-raping comments on here. could you please tone it down

TLR did blow it with benes, and he started down the same road with ankiel until scott boras barked. but he learned from the mistake. he has been very careful w pitch counts the last 5 years or so

by lboros on Jul 21, 2006 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Matt Morris

Wasn't on the 96 team.

Cheers, Alex Fritz

by Alxfritz on Jul 21, 2006 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1-2 Punch

After about 2 hours of watching the most intense wind I've ever seen tear apart my street, I was very happy with the way the Cards played last night. Carpenter IS on a roll, and it looks like having him on the mound gives the entire team a boost. It was great to see the team with a spring in their step, instead of being deflated because their pitcher gave up 5 runs in 3 innings.

All season, I wanted the Cards to pick up an "impact bat," because I thought that was their biggest need. While I still think they need a big bat, I don't think they will find one without having to give away their future (a.k.a. 1/2 of next year's rotation in Reyes and Wainwright). Besides, I really like Duncan in the 2 spot, especially since he's learning not to swing at every pitch he sees. With more playing time, I think he can develop into a solid left fielder.

I really think the Cardinals need to focus their attention on finding another dominating starter. I've heard people talk about how the Cardinals of 04 and 05 were built for the regular season, as opposed to the playoffs, and I kind of dismissed that until now. If you can throw Carpenter, another dominating starter, Reyes, (insert pitcher . . . Mulder?), and then Carpenter, I'd like our chances in that series. In a 7 game set, throwing two dominating starters two times a piece gives us the 4 wins we need -- Nevermind that our other starters give up more HRs than the batting practice coaches.

What does everyone think?

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Trades...

Honestly, I'd prefer to stick with what we have. It's been great to be a fan of a team which always seems to either make it to the playoffs or at least have a chance. After so many years of it though, it's no wonder our minor league system is depleted. If your team is always in the hunt, then you'll always be interested in making a deal for an "impact" player for the playoffs. Those deals are typically made using the up-and-coming talent. Since it appears we'll really need those minor league prospects next year and in to the future (with large contracts for Pujols, Rolen and Carpenter), I'd prefer with stay put unless someone wants a Bud Smith clone for trade. I suppose I have this mentality because I've fallen from the ranks of those which believe we have a shot in October, but we should give serious thought to holding on to prospects for once.

by jomfa on Jul 20, 2006 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But what about...

Hillenbrand?

Could he become the type of player the Cardinals could "fix"? Or is he a position-player Marquis?

I'm guessing he might not want to move from 1B to LF...

by dspeer on Jul 20, 2006 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He fades badly in the second half every year

and he's a DH...not even a 1b

by azruavatar on Jul 20, 2006 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just shea no

an interesting take on hillenbrand written by jerry crasnik on espn:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=2525120&CMP =ILC-INHEAD

it's protected by insider, so let me just say that crasnik compares hillenbrand's personality to jeff kent's. he says that hillenbrand repeatedly complained when left out of the lineup, even against starters against whom he struggled mightily. crasnik also links a message left in the toronto clubhouse to him. the message said, "Play for yourselves. Play for your paycheck. The ship is sinking."

clearly, these antics would not fly in TLR's clubhouse.

by sjoshi on Jul 20, 2006 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bernie

tends to agree with you.

In my opinion, it's all about the pitching. Every NL club has weaknesses... the Reds' and Braves' bullpens are terrible, the Padres lack offense (even moreso than the Cards,) the Giants are old, (and have to deal with whatever Barry distractions crop up between now and the end of the year,) Houston doesn't score runs despite having the #3 payroll in baseball, and the Mets are relying on a fragile Pedro Martinez and an aging Tom Glavine at the top of their rotation. (Does Steve Traschel scare anybody as the #3 starter?)

What the Cardinals need most, IMO, is a starting pitcher who can succeed in the playoffs. Carp starts Game One... but wha' hoppens after that? I'm also of the opinion that there isn't a starting pitcher of that caliber on the market. Heck, the Yanks are giving Sidney Ponson yet another shot to stay in the majors!

Good Marquis could be that #2 guy... but who knows how often Good Marquis shows up, and how often Bad Marquis gets hammered? I think whoever pitches the best among Mulder (when he returns,) Soup, and Weaver will get that #2 start. I'd start Reyes #3... but will Tony get Rick Ankiel flashbacks when the playoffs start?

As far as the Cards' chances in the post-season... anybody can win the World Series if they get hot at the right time. As a matter of fact, that's been the case for at least the last three seasons. The Cubs were going to the Series... and then the Marlins got hot. The Red Sox were even closer to elimination than the Marlins... and then got hot. The White Sox got hot at the start of the playoffs, and stayed hot all the way through.

A large part of the allure of hockey's Stanley Cup playoffs are their unpredictability. It's a bit of a wrench for long-time baseball fans to realize that the 162-game season, where teams are thoroughly tested, doesn't mean much once the playoffs start.

Get there, and get hot... that's how one wins the World Series.

From the guy in the Glenn Hall replica sweater,

by The Ol Goaler on Jul 20, 2006 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

braves

added wickman to their bullpen today.

by Toddius396 on Jul 20, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

I don't think Duncan will ever be a solid everyday player. I think he'll be a solid bench player. Not many guys "develop" into guys who can take walks. Duncan is not a guy who walks, and you can't get away with striking out 100 times and walking 5 in the big leagues. It's a tough league. His power deserves a roster spot, but he's not an everyday player on a first place team.

by Toddius396 on Jul 20, 2006 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

in the high minors Duncan showed an ability to take walks -- in 2004 in double A, he drew 64 walks against 387 abs and 94 strikeouts -- with an on-base percentage of .393. Last year at triple A Memphis, he drew 63 walks against 431 abs and 104 Ks, with an OBP of .358. Both seasons his OBP was about 95-100 points higher than his batting average. So the guy has shown some plate discipline -- the question is whether he can keep it up against major league pitching. You can certainly be skeptical about that -- but you can't say that Lil' Dunc is "not a guy who walks."

by DCRedbird on Jul 20, 2006 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Walks / Ks

I disagree about Duncan. Since being in the majors, he has improved his discipline, and has undeniable power. Adam Dunn consistently strikes out well over 100 times a year (including 195 times in 04), but is considered a solid every day player because of his power.

I don't think Duncan is that much of a liability. Besides, playing time will only make him better. I'd rather not give up on the guy after he's only had 87 lifetime major league at bats.

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also . . .

I'd much rather see 24 year old Duncan getting the lion's share of at bats instead of 37 year old Taguchi. Duncan, if he continues to improve, can really help out next year's club. (and this year's club too)

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He may be

an everyday player eventually. I just wish somebody could convince him to stop chewing that crap when he's at the plate. That's distracting & awful!

by ArachNerd on Jul 20, 2006 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fo sho

by effin fisk on Jul 20, 2006 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're all wet

Duncan is a player. Looks to me he CAN be an everyday player, despite TLR not playing him against lefties. At the very least, he's of the caliber that could be a regular left-handed hitting platoon outfielder--preferably in LF with JuanE, if we have to live with JuanE for two more years. That would leave room for an Edmonds move to RF and new, young CF. Or, keeping Jimmy in CF and upgrading RF in the offseason. Whatever. I think Duncan is more than a bench player that is Taguchi and J-Rod.

Baily

by Baily on Jul 20, 2006 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"despite TLR?"

Maybe Duncan should earn some at bats vs. lefties. I don't know his minor league numbers, but so far he hasn't done all that well in the majors this year:

.133 AVG; .133 OBP, .200 SLG, 33% K rate

So far, he's earned his at bats agains righties though (and getting them).

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jul 20, 2006 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I feel for any young lefty-hitting

Cardinal who does not instantly hit LHPs like a batting champion. How a LaRussa player is ever supposed to improve his abilities against lefties in zero ABs is a mystery to me.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 20, 2006 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when

The righthanded hitting option has great numbers against lefties why would you bat a lefty there?

Again, its about giving your team the best chance to win isnt it?

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Jul 20, 2006 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Generally a good rule, but subject

to the specific players you're using, don't you think? Imagine a young lefty hitter with power who struggles against LHPs but slugs .500-plus against righties. If he can improve against lefties with practice, maybe he'll slug .450 or better against them eventually. If the alternative is So Taguchi, who doesn't slug .400 against lefties and will struggle to turn in anything more than a .700 OPS against them either (and who ain't EVER gonna get better than he is right now), damn right I'm going to give the young lefty a chance to improve. If he doesn't improve, you've learned something important and you go back to a platoon. Now, if it's Eduardo Perez, who rakes against lefties, instead of Gooch, the equation is different.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 20, 2006 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jason Schmidt

by azruavatar on Jul 20, 2006 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

I like the way you think. I also think we can dig out Dontrelle . . . he'd be fun to have.

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The headline writes itself

"The D-Train's next stop: St. Louis Union Station"

by Valatan on Jul 20, 2006 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the other hand

In a way, we just picked up a bat. Edmonds.

by sdrone on Jul 20, 2006 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MAN I like Edmonds swing

Seeing him jack one always brings a smile to my face. I gotta get an Edmonds jersey this year.

by sdrone on Jul 20, 2006 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anyone own a batting practice

jersey? I'm considering a road jersey, but the batting practice jerseys are red and would be good to wear to the Cubs game.

by sdrone on Jul 20, 2006 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

jersey

I have a rolen BP jersey, it's awesome. I live 5 minutes from Wrigley so that's exactly why I bought it. They stand out much more than the grey or white!

by jschryver138 on Jul 20, 2006 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just figured out that that

counts as a custom jersey, so it costs more. Didn't know the batting practice jersey didn't have names on 'em.

by sdrone on Jul 20, 2006 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

J-Ed

I'm glad I'm not the only who thinks that Jimmy striking out more is a good thing.

His swinging strike swing is his home run swing. When he connects on a high fastball, look out. He mashed that ball last night!

-Kevin
http://player2bnamedl8r.mlblogs.com/

"I'm the player to be named later." - Crash Davis (Kevin Costner)

by player2bnamedl8r on Jul 20, 2006 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Edmonds

I really think we need to look at his option as a $7 million given the $3 million buy out. I think he is worth that much. Who are you going to get as a free agent for less? Anybody interested in a full season of the Skip Schumaker experiment.

With regard to the pitching, I say do nothing. None of the impact pitchers are available. If we were going to get somebody, I wonder if the Cards have anything to give to the ChiSox to get Buehrle? Kenny Williams has acted like they would give up a starter for a bat. I don't see us matching up well though as they are looking for a center fielder. Enc + prospects for Buehrle anyone?

I know, it will never happen, but might as well dream big.

OC Cards Fan

by OCCardsFan on Jul 20, 2006 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Have to do it now

while Buehrle is going through his horrible stretch.

by Valatan on Jul 20, 2006 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Sox want

a great bullpen guy and a good minor league starting pitcher prospect.

by sdrone on Jul 20, 2006 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright/Hawksworth?

by Valatan on Jul 20, 2006 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if

Buehrle weren't from St. Louis would we be in love with his as we are?

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Jul 20, 2006 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not in love with anyone

except for potentially availible starters that can get outs.

by Valatan on Jul 20, 2006 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't trade

Wainwright for Buehrle straight up....he just isn't right and with the cost factors involved....

by stanchar on Jul 20, 2006 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt if...

Jocketty or anyone else in major league baseball share that view. You'd have to do Wainright for Buehrle straight up in a heartbeat. Saying that, he reminds me a lot of Mulder. I wouldn't give up the Mulder package (or something similar).

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jul 20, 2006 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Definitely

Buehrle is the real deal, and I'd be interested even if he were from Houston:

Career Totals 94W 60L ERA 3.71
Many 16+ win seasons - for some White Sox teams not nearly as good as last year/ this year.

by madridbend on Jul 20, 2006 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Compare those stats to Mulder's career stats....

...how do they match up?

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 20, 2006 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now compare them to Wainright...

How do those stack up? You can even use his minor league numbers. I'm not saying we mortgage the farm for him, because he's not an ace. But if all they are wanting for him is Wainright, I'd say "More please".

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jul 20, 2006 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where as Wainwright has been pretty steady this...

...year and Burhle looks like he fits right in with the current 3-5 staff we've got.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 20, 2006 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wainright...

So, you think Wainright is going to be a number 1 or number 2? If everything breaks right he MIGHT be a number 2. Buehrle HAS been a solid number 2 starter in the past and could almost be counted as a number 1 in some seasons. Granted, he hasn't pitched well this season, but he's actually pitched better than everyone we have but Carpenter/Reyes.

Granted, Wainright has been good out of the bullpen, but there is quite a leap to starter...

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jul 21, 2006 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

impact pitchers

zito, schmidt, escobar...I consider those guys "impact" pitchers.

by Toddius396 on Jul 20, 2006 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MMmmmmmm....

The crow sandwich I'm eating right now (re:Edmonds regaining his swing) sho tastes fine. Thanks Jimmy! I'll be glad to chow crow anytime you prove me wrong. Keep those homers flying!

by rockin redbird on Jul 20, 2006 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

read this on mlb trade rumors

A Reds message board rumor has Ian Kinsler going to Cincy and Todd Coffey heading to Texas, among some other components. I don't know if this has any credence to it, just throwing it out there. Doesn't seem logical to me

ok he even says doesnt seem logical, but inst Kinsler one of Texas's up and coming guys? If they are willing to dumo talent maybe Cards could get MYoung for miles, or Tex for miles and dip and dots..hey its the ice cream of the future

by punchinjudy on Jul 20, 2006 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dont know much about him

but what about G mota? http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060719&content_id=1564634&vkey=trade200 6&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

by punchinjudy on Jul 20, 2006 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

his

era is terrible, but a move to the Nl coulod help...

by punchinjudy on Jul 20, 2006 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If winning the WS is the goal,

shouldn't we steer clear of pitchers who can't get AL hitters out?

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 20, 2006 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shea Hillenbrand

seems to me that his turning up in San Diego makes a lot of sense. They just released Castilla and have been shopping the market a bit looking for a 3B.

by stanchar on Jul 20, 2006 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Carp definitely is looking good...

I think it's a two-man race with Webb for Cy.

by guayzimi on Jul 20, 2006 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Really?

A two man race not including Brad Penny?

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok...

maybe a three-man race with Penny now that I look at the numbers again. I saw he had given up as many hits as innings pitched, but hes got the good record.

There's a bunch of guys just a notch below Webb-Carp-Penny. Oswalt-Arroyo-Schmidt have 6-7 losses, Zambrano too many walks, Smoltz-Glavine-Capuano-Martinez have eras in the mid-threes.

All that seperates Penny and Webb is .75 in era. Obviously that can narrow quickly.

by guayzimi on Jul 20, 2006 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

izzy for cy young

Is just silly. I think the cy predictor is weighted too heavily towards saves; changing the formula to something like (2.5*sv - 5*BlownSV) would help at least a little bit.

by SleepyCA on Jul 20, 2006 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

the formula needs some work with regard to relievers... Another way to do it would be if the local newspaper questions whether there should be a change of closers, you're automatically disqualified.

by guayzimi on Jul 20, 2006 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jake Westbrook

Just throwing another name on the pile. He is another LaDunc speciality with a g/f ratio of 3.13 (5th best).

by Just Rope Ball on Jul 20, 2006 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

there's one and only one

pitcher that would make a diff'nce and might be affordable: dontrelle. schmidt's a free agent in two months, so you can't give up reyes or wainwright for him. but dontrelle is under team control through 2008, and he's already pretty reasonably priced at ~$4m a year. you'd have him for two more seasons at fair prices --- for that, you could afford to give up a young cheap pitcher or two.

he's the only one who could make this team truly dangerous come october, and who also makes sense for the organization.

by lboros on Jul 20, 2006 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

the thing is he seems shakier right now than Zito or Schmidt. Is Dontrelle good enough?

by guayzimi on Jul 20, 2006 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that's the gamble here

Personally, I'd do Reyes & a few others for Dontrelle if he was available, primarily for the reasons lboros mentioned (i.e. he's cheap for a few years, not a 2 month rental).

Would we be selling the farm? Sure, but as others have mentioned, the organization is (somewhat) "deep" at A and AA, which (hopefully) will translate to being somewhat deep at AAA in 2-3 yrs or so. Dontrelle for 2-yrs cheap is worth that gamble to me.

If you can pull that off, they could hypothetically go after Schmidt in the offseason and buck up for him and all of a sudden you have a top 3 of Carp, Dontrelle & Schmidt. They really ought to chase Schmidt, since they were willing to give Burnett $10M/yr. Without losing any other significant parts of this team, you have to figure that we're a playoff contender, even if the #4 & #5 spots had to be filled via Weaver/Ponson type moves.

At the end of the day, that kind of pitching in the postseason would be pretty damn dangerous. I'd give up young Reyes et al for that in a heartbeat. You'd have to imagine that the team would be reasonably set for a few years with that as well. At the end of the day, though, Dontrelle probably isn't available.

My $0.02, feel free to comment!

by jschryver138 on Jul 20, 2006 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand the sentiment of wanting

to build for the future as well as augmenting today but I think the organization is at a crossroads. We really don't have the prospects to sustain internal growth and we have not shown good propensity in FA signings. We have the opportunity now with a core of Pujols, Rolen and an aging Edmonds to get a second dominant pitcher and win NOW.

I wish we could sustain long term dominance (we'll always be competitive with Pujols) but all we've been doing is staying above water in a mediocre NL. Schmidt is the better pitcher this year over Dontrelle. If you have to give up Reyes to get him - do it. You just noted that DTrain's pitch count the last two years = dangerous territory. Schmidt has shown that he is back in force this year. If you can get him and sign him to a extension great, but I think Schmidt is the better answer to win this year. And I think that we need to win soon or the window of opportunity will close.

I'm a little confused by your (seemingly) about face on Dontrelle. He's good and he can be dominant but he's not pitching like an ace this year - 3.94 ERA and 1.4 WHIP - those aren't ace type numbers. They're good and they've been improving but he doesn't seem to have the zip he had the last few years. I don't think he is the 2 in the 1-2 punch we are looking for this year.

by azruavatar on Jul 20, 2006 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

its not often you have a 1-2-3 punch of players like pujols - rolen - carp. I wouldn't mind selling the farm for a legit chance at the WS this year or next year.

by PGeorge on Jul 20, 2006 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dontrelle vs. Schmidt

I think lboros was saying Dontrelle is the only pitcher who makes an impact now AND is affordable / fits into the organization b/c of his contract. I think your point is well taken that Schmidt is pitching better right now, but Dontrelle fits better b/c of his contract.

I also disagree with you to some extent about throwing away the future to win today. I know that right now the Cards have a great opportunity to win with their core players. But this year's team has too much to fix to make it a WS winner. I'm definitely not saying Jocketty should sit on his hands, but I don't like the idea of just betting the farm simply because we don't "have the prospects to sustain internal growth." Betting the farm by trading prospects is what put the Cards farm system in such a mess.

A previous post pointed out that any team can win the World Series if they get hot, which is true. While I don't like the Cards' chances this year, I'd rather see them save and develop the young talent as well as re-tool the rotation and outfield next year instead of giving away young talent to try and plug the holes in this year's team. Our core will still be there next year.

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Word

I agree...I could never understand getting rid of the future for a two-month player. Sure, you may want to win now, but is it really worth waiting another 20+ years to win another.

I, too, am in the same school that whoever is hot wins the WS. The past couple of years have shown that. I do think that the Cardinals have the chance to get hot and win, but they will definitely need some help (and not in the form of another platoon player like Dellucci).

by BigdJC on Jul 20, 2006 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

people give too much credit to prospects / rookies (like wainwright and reyes) Im not saying they won't turn out good, but its Highly unlikely either of these two ever turn out to be All-star caliber pitchers. thats why I'd be willing to trade them away for a proven All-star caliber pitcher, such as Schmidt.

basically Im tired of Jocketty/LaRussa/Duncan only bringing in cheap "project pitchers" I'll admit it worked out great for Carp, but for every Carpenter, there's been a Suppan, Woody Williams, Ponson, Marquis, and now Weaver. none of whom I'd want starting a playoff game.

by PGeorge on Jul 20, 2006 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You forget

Woody was our money man for a few years. That trade for him was a great move for the Cardinals. You knew every time Woody was on the hill the Cards had a chance to win just like we feel when Carp goes out there now.

Lonedawg I see the ball, I hit the ball.

by Lonedawg on Jul 20, 2006 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hold on

The Suppan who has won 16 games in both 2004 and 2005, who outpitched and beat Roger Clemens in Game 7 of the 2004 NLCS to propel us into the World Series?

The Woody Williams who went 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA down the stretch in 2001 and beat The Big Unit in the NLDS Game 2? Who went 45-22 for the Cardinals?

Marquis has been bad this year, but he pitched over 200 innings in both 2004 and 2005 and had an ERA of 3.71 and 4.13, which is rather good for a back of the rotation guy.

Suppan and Marquis have had bad years this year, but they were integral parts of 100- and 105-win ballclubs and good, relatively cheap No. 4/5 pieces.

As for Weaver, he has pitched one game. Let us reserve our judgment.

Ponson is/was attrocious.

by bgh on Jul 20, 2006 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here Here

Well said.

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Suppan

I've never held Jeff Suppan in high regard, even with NLCS 2004 game 7. I wouldn't say he outpitched Roger Clemens, just that he kept us in the game long enough. Clemens made one bad pitch to Rolen that sealed the game for us, but the rest of the night he was basically lights out.

In Albert we trust.

by Mr Redbird on Jul 20, 2006 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2004 NLCS Game 7 Lines

Suppan
6 IP/3 H/2 R/1 ER/2 BB/6 SO

Clemens
6 IP/6 H/4 R/4 ER/0 BB/2 SO

I would say that he outpitched Clemens.

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B10210SLN2004.htm

by bgh on Jul 20, 2006 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, OK

I kind of retract that statement, but only with the following disclaimer. Hits + Walks, Suppan had 5, Rocket had 6. Also, Jim Edmonds made a spectacular catch (probably one of his top 3 of all times) off of someone (I can't remember who, but my gut says Beltran becaues he was crushing everything that series) that completely changed the course of the game. Let's just say Suppan didn't overwhelm the Rocket.

In Albert we trust.

by Mr Redbird on Jul 20, 2006 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was Ausmus

who hit that ball actually.

Amazing catch...I still get chills when I watch it...

"I grew up in Oklahoma, and once you start runnin' out there there ain't nothin' to stop you" - Johnny Leonard Roosevelt "Pepper" Martin

by iron duke75 on Jul 20, 2006 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I completely

agree in that all of those guys you mentioned did well as, like you said, back of the rotation guys.

but back of the rotation guys are pitchers you want starting in the playoffs.

as for suppan outpitching clemens, thats 1 game. I still don't want him starting any playoff games. and clemens was going against the stacked cards lineup, whereas suppan was pitching against a Much weaker astros lineup.

by PGeorge on Jul 20, 2006 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they were weaker...

but not so much weaker that Suppan suddenly became an ace. He really had his good stuff that night, and it was aagainst a very strong lineup. Ours was stronger, yes, but it was stronger than everyone's in 2004.

Don't forget that the red hot Carlos Beltran was playing that night, as well as a healthy Jeff Bagwell. That was a potent lineup.

The Cardinal Curmudgeon

by lawman3842 on Jul 20, 2006 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand the point

about dominant pitching being the key to winning the WS (hence the debate over Schmidt vs. Willis), but I believe that championship teams have to hit well too. And I just can't imagine a lineup that is going to feature these guys throughout the playoffs ...

Miles
Taguchi
Encarnacion
Molina

... has a prayer in hell of winning the series. It would take once-in-a-lifetime luck to overcome that. And we also know that at least 1 of our MV3 will mysteriously stop hitting. Too many outs.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 20, 2006 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Id guess

there have been far worse hitting teams to win the world series than this years cardinals team. I dont remember that well, but how were teams like the Marlins, D-Backs, Angels, even Whitesox hitting-wise. Im guessing they were close to this year's cardinals team.

by PGeorge on Jul 20, 2006 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

far worse is probably overstating. but worse maybe.

by PGeorge on Jul 20, 2006 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The '02 Angels

are a counterexample to the pitching argument, not to the hitting one. They won on the strenght of a high powered offense and a stellar bullpen, not starting pitching.

by Valatan on Jul 20, 2006 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I figured

I get at least 1 of those teams backwards. but I still say the Cards offense isnt bad enough to keep them out of the world series, its other problems.

by PGeorge on Jul 20, 2006 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitting

I know we have to hit, but we had the best lineup in baseball in 04, and look where that got us: to the WS where we were promptly beaten by GREAT pitching. (Schilling's red sock still pisses me off, even though that was impressive).

I'm also tired of people lumping Juan Encarnacion in with the "weak hitters." He's not an '04 Edmonds, but who is, anyway? I think we got exactly what we paid for in Juan, (if you look at his career stats) and I wish people would stop expecting him to have a stellar season.

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Red Sox'

outstanding offense in '04 had a little to do with that as well.

Juan Encarnacion is fine during the regular season ... he will neither win us a playoff spot nor lose us one. But, he will be chewed up and spit out by top-caliber starting pitchers in the playoffs. In that context, he might as well be Aaron Miles.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 20, 2006 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True . . .

The Red Sox offense had something to do with us losing, but I don't think there is any argument that we had a better lineup than the Sox that year. My point was that our killer lineup didn't win us the WS because of the Red Sox pitching.

I'm not so sure that Juan = Aaron Miles in the playoffs. Either way, however, if high quality pitching can shut down hitters in the playoffs, isn't that all the more reason we need "top-caliber starting pitchers?"

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again, I think it all goes back

to being hot. The Red Sox came off a game 7 win when they were down 3 games to none. I don't think anyone could have beat the Red Sox after coming off that high.

by BigdJC on Jul 20, 2006 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because teams that win 4 games

in a row never lose again? It was surely an emotional high for them but all this "team of destiny" or "unbeatable" stuff is crap. They beat us because they absolutely dominated our hitters and scored some runs off our pitchers.

They were beatable. Every team, every game is beatable by anyone. The odds may not be great but it can happen. The best you can do is try and stack the odds in your favor. This is why baseball is so great.

Note to Walt: Acquire Jason Schmidt

by azruavatar on Jul 20, 2006 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why would Jason Schmidt be available?

I've thought all along that the rumor of him going to Chicago was BS. I just don't see how a team that's still in the division race can give up their best pitcher. Not possible.

by ryanisforever on Jul 20, 2006 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you offer them an ML ready arm

plus a youg outfielder...maybe Duncan...plus a AA pitcher and pick up his contract - Sabean might go for that. Then you go grab Dellucci to fill the Duncan hole. Viola! It would take a bit to shake Schmidt loose, almost certainly Reyes, but it'd be worth it.

by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2006 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right, that does

demonstrate the importance of the top pitchers. I'm saying even that is not enough with an offense that has so many easy outs. Or to put it another way, why I think we have too many holes to fill to really be a WS threat in '06.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 20, 2006 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll respectfully disagree

I think Schmidt would make the Cards VERY dangerous in October. If he isn't willing to sign a new deal at the time of the trade, then maybe the trade value is slightly less.

I'm in the camp that feels Schmidt is a better pitcher now than Willis is. Willis has had some good years (odd numbered years) and some tough years (even numbered years). I think making a run for a championship now means going after Schmidt.

Willis is the better option long-term, but Schmidt is this year's best option.

by BozCardsFanSF on Jul 20, 2006 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Id go after westbrook

if you could get him cheap...I live IN Wa and Schmidt has hinted at signing with SEattle

by punchinjudy on Jul 20, 2006 1:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he'll follow the $$$$

by azruavatar on Jul 20, 2006 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Braves picked up Wickman

For their 20th rated prospect. Pretty cheap and should immediately help their bullpen.

OC Cards Fan

by OCCardsFan on Jul 20, 2006 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wickman

Isn't his ERA 4-something?

by bgh on Jul 20, 2006 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they need

a closer, been struggling with that all year

by punchinjudy on Jul 20, 2006 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wickman

isn't the answer. plunging k rate, gb rate.

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 20, 2006 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Folks

The Cardinals have too many holes. Selling the farm for one player when they need MANY players is not the way to go. They need bullpen help, they need a starter and I'm holding judgement on left field. And they certainly need a right fielder. Juan'cion can't be your fourth best hitter.

They are too far away from winning the World Series to go selling the farm for one player. That would be so Steve Phillips.

by ryanisforever on Jul 20, 2006 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Too many holes????????

Not at 1st, SS, 3rd, RF, CF. The only positions that can be considered holes are LF, C, and 2b. But even if you count those, Duncan could fill the LF void, Molina is a defensive force, and 2b isn't THAT bad if Luna starts. But between the MV3 and Eck w/ JuanEnc putting up decent numbers the offense is good to go. The MV3 cover a lot of sins offensively.

Pitching - our bullpen is good. They aren't iron clad but they are solid. Wainwright and Looper are good from the right side (looper has looked considerably better in recent weeks). Izzy is still a good closer. Hancock, Kinney, Thompson et al can fill in the other innings. Tyler Johnson and Flores are both effective LOOGYs but their ratios are awful because they've been exposed to righties over the year.

Our Starting rotation has one ace a good rookie and some guys filling in the back. But all you need in the playoffs is 2 Aces. That's IT. Good offense + 2 Aces is about the best you can do to ready yourself for the playoffs.

Sort answer - this team is one ace away from being scary good in the playoffs. JASON SCHMIDT

by azruavatar on Jul 20, 2006 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If only he wasn't a Cub...

Zambrano is dealing today, folks. He's k'd 10 astros in 7 shutout innings and allowed only three baserunners - two walks and only one hit.

The Reds also lost when their newly acquired bullpen help imploded in extras, giving up 2 in the 10th to lose the game to the Mets 4-2.

The Cards just picked up some ground without even playing.

The Cardinal Curmudgeon

by lawman3842 on Jul 20, 2006 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Zambone again threw

more than 120 pitches today. How long till his arm explodes ala Prior and Wood? Baker rides his prize horses till they drop year after year. Having said that, a big thanx to the boys in blue for driving the Stros a bit farther down in the standings. Much to my Cubfan buddies' dismay, the few games they've actually won lately have done little but help the Birds ;-)

by rockin redbird on Jul 20, 2006 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Am I the only one

who thinks that we should do everything we can to keep Reyes and Wainwright? These are two guys who are probably good enough to be our #2 and #3 guys right now, unless Marquis doesn't have a bad start the rest of the year. I'd take either one of them right now over Suppan or Weaver, and unless Mulder comes back in 2000-2004 form, him too. Even with the positives this team has I just don't see them advancing to the World Series this year, much less win the darn thing. We need upgrades in LF, RF, 2B, and SP. Reyes and Wainwright need to keep on getting more and more experience.

In Albert we trust.

by Mr Redbird on Jul 20, 2006 4:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You are not the only one.

I'm not driving the bandwagon, but I'm sitting pretty damn near the front.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 20, 2006 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I just shudder when I hear people talk about trading one of them for Dave Dellucci or some other average player that will get trashed by the fans once they figure out he's not the "impact bat" eveyone is so hyped up about. (i.e. Juan Encarnacion)

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same here.

We'd be foolish to trade them for most of the names getting tossed around. I'd only consider it for someone who will make an impact this year and beyond, and where we wouldn't also be paying a huge chunk of salary. The Deluccis of the world are no more than a small upgrade over what we have now. It would be dumb to trade Reyes/Wainwright for a marginal upgrade.

8/13/79- Lou Brock 3000 hits

by lb3000 on Jul 20, 2006 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one is talking about trading those two for

delucci. The attraction of the DD is that he can be had more cheaply than Reyes/Wainwright

by Valatan on Jul 20, 2006 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pollite?

Hey everyone.. I've been browsing this site for awhile now and thought I'd chime in. I live in the chicago area (student at Northern Illinois) and as you may know, Cliff Pollite of the Sox was designated for assignment a few days ago. When I heard this, I thought he may be a good fit for the Cards. It doesnt look like he will be traded, but what do you guys think about the Cards picking him up once he is released?

I know he's having a bad year but I think what he did last year proves that he's capable. He sure beats the hell out of Kinney, Flores, etc right now.

(take it easy on me, I'm new lol)

by stltrav09 on Jul 20, 2006 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Cards

let Pollitte go in the Rolen trade, IIRC, so I doubt they'd want him back. But then, I've been wrong before...

by cardsrul on Jul 20, 2006 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously

if you're reading this you have electricity. I hear they are calling in the guard in St. Louis because so many people have lost power. That must have been a heck of a storm that blew through there. I hope your city makes a recovery and keeps it's cool. Take care.

A Cubs fan just visiting

by brianp88 on Jul 20, 2006 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No Kidding?

I live in STL, and watched the storm last night. Luckily, I have power, but have heard that 500,000 people are without power.

I've never seen stronger wind . . .

by Ray Lankford on Jul 20, 2006 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, brianp88

Being a Cards fan in Chicago, I really feel for everyone down in St. Louis. And I think we all appreciate your genuine concern. In the case of this matter, sports rivalries be damned!

by Solanus on Jul 20, 2006 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

read this

on the stltoday forums, and if i were a betting man I'd say hoax...

Colby Rasmus, Reyes, and two others for Willis? (according to colby's dad guess someone knows him)

anyway im sure its bogus thought it was humorus...Im not on reyes and AW's bandwagon but i agree to sell the farm for one guy wouldnt be smart...however i think some were surprised to see bud smith go, or kerry robinson..those two worked out fine...

IMO i'd deal reyes before AW Aw has shwon more to me, but i know reyes has potential..i also know that the Reyes fan club and TLR conspiracy guys will be all over this

by punchinjudy on Jul 20, 2006 6:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

fransisco liriano

i have not heard anything regarding the lights out pitcher from minnesota: liriano. if you haven't checked him out, do so now! this guy is only 22 and has an era under 2, and has 115 strike outs.

~Fox~

by pujols5 on Jul 20, 2006 6:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Liriano

Anyone who follows baseball knows about Liriano :)

That's beer, that's Budweiser.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jul 20, 2006 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually from what I hear on the scout

board that IS his dad. I don't like it one bit but Colby's dad did say that. One heck of a rumor with some bite to it, and BernieM did allude to this very trade this morning in the post dispatch. So it may very well have some legs.

"[new] read this
on the stltoday forums, and if i were a betting man I'd say hoax...

Colby Rasmus, Reyes, and two others for Willis? (according to colby's dad guess someone knows him)

IMO i'd deal reyes before AW Aw has shwon more to me, but i know reyes has potential..i also know that the Reyes fan club and TLR conspiracy guys will be all over this

by punchinjudy on Thu Jul 20, 2006 at 05:22:41 PM EST
[ Reply to This ]"

by TexasCard on Jul 20, 2006 7:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bernie sez...

... FLA wants Reyes, Rasmus and Duncan -- and that's not all. Probably one more... possibly their pick of the Cardinals' system.

- B

That's a lot.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jul 20, 2006 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That sounds WAAAAY too similar

to the Mulder trade. ML ready young pitcher, minor league bat, and two other names for a consistently good starter who has had some seasons of brilliance....

(I like Willis, I really do, but I also liked Mulder).

by SirVLCIV on Jul 20, 2006 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't like this deal at all

Rasmus, Reyes, Duncan, AND, as Bernie said in the forum, "possibly their pick of the Cardinals system"? I think Willis is a great pitcher and all, but giving away four of the Cards' top 10 prospects seems like Walt is setting himself up to get burned even worse than he did with the Mulder deal. Besides, the Cards lack of overall talent in the minors is common knowledge, so should they really mortgage the future this badly just to get one player in return?

Luck O' The Redbirds

by stlnd on Jul 20, 2006 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i just can't get my

head around the fact that his dad knows he MIGHT be traded. A minor league player doesn't usually know until the last minute I thought..

I don't think I like this, but I can't say I hate the idea completely. (reasons stated on my blog- shameless plug) But i does reek of Mulder for Haren part 2.

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 20, 2006 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's way too much....

...the Cardinals in essence are giving up 2/3rds of their potential 2009 outfield and 1/5th of their potential 2009 rotation for 1 player. No bueno.

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 20, 2006 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely not

I would not make this deal. I think Dontrelle Willis would be a good addition to this ballclub, but with that funky windup and his IP being as high as it is getting, I'm concerned that he may flame out and be a one-hit (or 3-or-4-year, as it were) wonder. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm skeptical.

In Albert we trust.

by Mr Redbird on Jul 20, 2006 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Willis Seems closer to Marky Mark than I thought..

Especially after factoring for the AL. Comparing Willis over the past three years to the pre-trade mulder is pretty interesting.

D-Train 2003-2005:

46 W/27 L; 3.27 ERA; 1.25 WHIP; 6.8 K/9; 2.59 K/BB; .7 HR/9

Marky-Mark: 2002-2004:
51 W/24 L; 3.72 ERA; 1.23 WHIP; 6.2 K/9; 2.40 K/BB; .9 HR/9

The lower HR rate could be explained by that massive FLA stadium, though willis seemed to have slightly better control over the same span--I'm a little unclear on how the AL affects peripherals (I know the general rule is to subtract half a point of ERA).

Also, Dontrelle's best year was last year, while Mulder's best year was 2002. Mulder was 27 at the time of the trade, Willis is 24 now. Willis is the better pitcher in this comparison, but not by a ton by any means. Also, we're not factoring Willis' offense, which is worth a few extra runs.

But I would also say that a big difference here is that Dontrelle is a charismatic young player known for positive off-the field contributions--I've seen talk about the need for a clubhouse motivator, and I think he might be as good a candidate as any of the availible guys out there, especially of the impact guys out there. Rasmus/Reyes might be a little much, but Willis is a good fit and wouldn't be a rental, and would help the team now, not in 3 years when Edmonds is retired and Rolen is starting to get older, and Carpenters' contract is up.

And really, with our current lineup, and a playoff rotation featuring Carpenter, Willis, and whichever of our question marks comes out on top. This leaves us with Wainwright, who could be moved to the rotation.

In reality, I don't see much point in building for tomorrow--this team is going to need a major overhaul in the near future. A playoff team doesn't need five starters, and it doesn't need 8 stellar offensive players--it needs enough dominating players to get them over the top in a 3-2 game. Willis + Carp + Pujols + Rolen + Edmonds and the random contributions from our role players might be enough to do it.

by Valatan on Jul 20, 2006 8:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

also

mulder also pitched in a big stadium in oakland, it may even be bigger than dolphins stadium where the marlins play. willis is also 5-2 in his last 10 starts

here are his stats for the season

W-L ERA K Walks WHIP
6-7 3.94 86 44 1.42

bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Jul 20, 2006 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good points, V

Pretty much my take as well. It takes these kind of moves to put a team in a position to win in october. And if (big IF, I know) Mulder comes back healed and able to pitch in some semblance of his '02-'04 self, Carp + Willis + Mulder would be a killer trio for playoffs. A trade of this size for Willis is certainly a gamble, but I'm for it.

by rockin redbird on Jul 20, 2006 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you on the win now part

but no way is Willis worth that. I don't care if he has arbitration eligible years left...he's NOT pitching well this year. This would not be a win now acquisition. It would be avain attempt to win now and pick up an arm that can still be of service for a few years and that's not what we need. We need a bonafide ACE and Willis does not look like one as of late. That WHIP is what scares me the most.

by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2006 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Surely we could shake Jason Schmidt

loose for less than Reyes, Rasmus, Duncan and another B prospect. Probably same package minus Rasmus...maybe...that's what I think at least...

by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2006 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's also a free agent

after this season and would leave for sure, so no way for that package

bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Jul 21, 2006 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I just don't trade Reyes for a 2 month rental. He's a cheap ML ready pitcher with flashes of brilliance (White Sox game) and we have him for several years. 320k or whatever the minimum is: you trade him for a free-agent to be, you lose that.

by SirVLCIV on Jul 21, 2006 6:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

that Willis isn't worth the package that's being rumored, but to say he's not pitching well is a bit harsh in my opinion. He struggled to start the season to be sure, but according to the day-by-day database since June 1 he's got a 2.93 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 2.42 K/BB, 1.06 HR/9 and about a 1.34 WHIP. Reyes has a higher K/9 and better WHIP, but gives up more than twice as many HR/9 and has a lower K/BB ratio. I'm not saying I like the deal at all, but Willis does represent a nice upgrade over any of our pitchers not named Carpenter and if you remove either Reyes or Rasmus out of the deal, then I'm all for it.

Luck O' The Redbirds

by stlnd on Jul 21, 2006 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

every forecaster

worth his salt, from BP to Shandler have been forecasting doom on Dontrelle to get injured. his k's per 9 have dropped 1.2 per from last season, and his ERA is back up around 4.

BP's comparibles to Willis-Mark Buehrle, Steve Avery and Jim Abbott. 2 of those three lefties flamed out in a hurry.

If we make the deal, here's hoping he's Buehrle. If not, well...

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 21, 2006 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but

looking at the Day by Day Database, Willis seems to be rebounding...in his last 6, his k's per 9 are a healthy 7.3 and he's sporting an ERA 3.02 since 6/15/06...Sample size, I know.

I'm torn. Willis showed he has Cy Young stuff. When Carp and Willis are on their game, that's just a sick 1-2 punch. Willis has nearly 5 seasons under his belt, and he's the same age as Reyes. Reyes has yet to throw over 150 innings at the minor league level...

it's certainly a big gamble.

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Jul 21, 2006 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's certainly a big gamble.

As is doing nothing

by Valatan on Jul 21, 2006 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just read in the Minneapolis online paper

that we might be interested in Kyle Lohse. We brought in weaver with a 6+ ERA, and now we may be interested in a 7+ ERA guy? sheesh.

In Albert we trust.

by Mr Redbird on Jul 20, 2006 9:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it's all

a prelude to the big acquisition of Odalis Perez.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jul 20, 2006 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL!

Considering how thoroughly APu owns the guy, I'm betting Perez is pulling for that too.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 20, 2006 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

disconcerting minor-league stat of the night

In the Quad Cities game tonight, after four innings, Bryan Anderson has allowed three passed balls. Trey Hearne has also thrown a wild pitch.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jul 20, 2006 9:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

First pitch swing

Sorry if this has been covered. Sometime in the mid-90s, I think '94, SI did a really nice piece on the percentages of swinging at the first good pitch vs. going deeper into the count. Confirmed what I thought and you just 'splained. And gave me a great piece of copy to show to my manager, who was always saying "Take 'til you see a strike". I never understood that mentality. Great article, LB.

by Pokey Joe on Jul 20, 2006 9:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs