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Around SBN: 2012 Africa Cup Of Nations Final

it just gets strainer and strainer . . . .

pujols, shmujols. who needs the bum?

we whip la russa a lot of sh*t at this site, and sometimes he even deserves it. so let's give him his due for flashing taguchi the green light in two risky base-stealing situations yesterday. first one came in the bottom of the 1st -- gooch on first (walk), rolen batting, cards trailing 1-0, and la russa sends the runner. love the call. in anxious times (whether on a ballfield or otherwise), just taking action -- any action -- can have a settling effect. i think the 1st-inning steal helped do that; it put the team in an action-taking frame of mind right from the start, dumped 'em immediately into the flow of the ballgame -- and maybe eased the constipation that had frozen them (or their pitcher, anyway) in the belabored, 32-pitch top of the 1st.

the other steal also came with the cards trailing, now 5-3 in the 5th inning. same situation -- gucci on 1st (single), rolen batting. this time the throw got away, and taguchi scampered to 3d, later scored on a single. in both cases, the steal came at the front of a 3-run inning. i don't want to oversell this -- stolen bases do not cause subsequent hits -- but i also don't want the subtext to get overlooked. those were a couple of fearless moves. i think it emboldened the cardinals to see someone leading the charge; it set a good tone, and the players all fed off it. that's strong leadership. attaboy, tony.

as for the decision to play edmonds . . . . . well, no doubt jimmy's unexpected appearance on the lineup card also stiffened a few spines -- maybe more so than the 2 steals. but two nights ago he was so infirm that he couldn't even pinch-hit in a 14-inning game that emptied the bench -- and now all of a sudden he's well enough to hit cleanup and play all 9 innings? i mean, they didn't even sub him out after taking a 9-5 lead in the 6th inning.  . . . doesn't add up. after reading miklasz's postgame quote dump, i came away with the sense that la russa acted here out of fear, not courage. before albert's injury, tony had been doing the prudent and responsible thing -- keeping edmonds out of action, preparing to put him on the DL in hopes of getting him well for the 2d half. but then, suddenly bereft of middle-order hitters and worried about where his offense was going to come from, la russa took a chance and asked -- or at the very least, allowed -- edmonds to play. and for what -- to avoid a sweep? edmonds played a brilliant game, but at what cost down the road? all parties claim there is zero risk of making this injury worse by playing on it, but i don't know if i'm buying that. and even if it's true, the memory of rolen screaming in pain with each swing last summer is still pretty fresh; i can't believe that taxing an injured 35-year-old body in june is going to pay dividends in september/october. if disabling edmonds was the right thing to do as of friday, then it's still the right thing to do today, pujols injury or no.

see bernie's column for more in this vein -- and to learn, among other things, what a Lazarus taxon is.

the handling of edmonds does not give me comfort vis-vis albert. he will no doubt demand to come back before he's ready -- that's his nature -- so it'll be up to the team to keep him out of action until it's truly safe for him to play again, with minimal risk of re-aggravating the injury. but suppose it's early july and the cards are feeling heat from the astros, or they've fallen a few games behind the reds, and albert says "get me out there dammit, i'm fine, i gotta help the team" . . . . will the cards impose the discipline necessary to avoid a foolish risk? or will anxiety cloud la russa's judgment, as it may have done here?

consider what happened when woody williams sustained this injury in 2002 -- not a pretty story. he popped the oblique in his 1st start of the season and sat for five weeks; came back may 15, at a time when the cardinals were desperate for rotation stability -- they stood 13th in the league in era and were 4.5 games out of first place, playing .500 ball -- and pitched well for 11 starts. but he reinjured the oblique during his july 6 start and had to sit again, this time for seven weeks. returned on august 29, with the cards clinging to a 2.5-game lead, but still wasn't sound; he made five more starts but had to come out of a game on september 20 and missed the 1st round of the playoffs. still sore, he took the mound for the 2d game of the nlcs, throwing 6 courageous innings in a loss to jason schmidt. the upshot -- he came back too soon, and as a result the injury bedeviled him all season; williams needed a full off-season of rest to shake it. he came back hale in 2003 and had a career year, with highs in wins and innings pitched.

did the cardinals rush him back too soon and increase the odds of a recurrence? who knows; it's a difficult injury under the best of circumstances, and it can get reaggravated even if every precaution is taken. maybe an extra week or two of rest in may 2002 wouldn't have made a difference for woody williams. either way, his story exemplifies why extreme patience is in order -- and it's going to be up to the team's leaders to enforce it.

as they didn't do in the edmonds case.

p-d has an update on albert's condition.

here's some gossip from a reliable source: the cards are among the most earnest suitors of florida's dontrelle willis, jostling with the diamondbacks for the marlins' attention. if they should eventually make a formal trade offer, it'd likely be a three-way transaction, with the cards trading a veteran somewhere for some prospects and flipping them, along with reyes or wainwright or somebody, for dontrelle.

oh, and since i mentioned jason schmidt a couple paragraphs ago -- i'm also hearing the cards are starting to scout him . . . . . . .

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drooling at the thought of acquiring Willis
seriously, my heart is all a twitter - if we can get him without losing BOTH Waiwright and Reyes - hot damn that would be nice.

I hope Jimmy was really ok enough to play...but either way it was dang good to see him hitting with a little authority.

by azruavatar on Jun 5, 2006 9:03 AM EDT reply actions  

it'd be a coup
but i should prob'y issue the caveat here that it's a longshot. my understanding is that the cards are very interested, but the marlins are playing hard-to-get. finding the right formula to acquire him won't be easy, and if they get close other teams may try to swoop in at the last minute . . .

by lboros on Jun 5, 2006 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

is it safe to assume
that in such a deal, the starter we'd be losing would be Mulder? I just can't see any team offering up the prospects it'd take for WJ to use to spin for D-Train unless the starter was Mulder. I'd be a heckuva lot more excited if WJ somehow got it done while keeping Mulder.
That's a Winner!

by WarningTrackPower on Jun 5, 2006 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Would you rather have Mulder or Willis?
The difference between Mulder and Willis is very significant here imo and we're likely going to lose Mulder after this season anyway. I have a bigger problem losing Reyes or Wainwright personally and I'm not sure that I'd like any deal that they're included.

by rob is back on Jun 5, 2006 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

agreed
Rob, I agree that I'd rather have Willis than Mulder and I don't want to deal Reyes or Wainwright bc we'll need them both for next year and possibly right now. My point was simply that we've been talking about how we need 3 pitchers for the playoffs and need to add one to go with Carp/Mulder. So is it worth our time to deal  Mulder and prospects to go from Carp/Mulder to Carp/Willis? I'm just saying I'd much rather - in a perfect world - see us deal Suppan and prospects and then have Carp/Mulder/Willis.
That's a Winner!

by WarningTrackPower on Jun 5, 2006 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we could do it
that might be okay with me, but who's going to trade away a playoff-caliber pitcher for Suppan or Marquis and prospects?

Besides, why not get something out of Mulder before we lose him to FA? I pretty much view Mulder as a rental player and I'm not sure that he's worth the money that we're paying to rent him. I'd rather put that money too good use where it's needed elsewhere, if we could sign a playoff-caliber pitcher to replace him.

by rob is back on Jun 5, 2006 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I kinda assumed it was a long shot
and I know it would take an immense amount but trading both Wainwright and Reyes is untenable financially in my mind.  That means we would very shortly have to sign three FA next year and Willis would be getting into big bucks soon.  I'm willing to trade it all for him if we can just keep one of the two (Wainwright or Reyes).  I think he would make this a playoff team in my mind.  A power bat to the lineup would be great and would improve my opinion of our playoff chances but D-Train and Carpenter is a classic 1-2 playoff punch that could put us over the top.

by azruavatar on Jun 5, 2006 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Edmonds
I've gone back and forth on the Edmonds thing so many times my head is spinning. Somewhere along the line someone pointed out a very striking TLR comment: He indicated that he hadn't been aware that Edmonds was able to swing without pain. I draw two conclusions:
  1. We've got some exceptionally poor lines of communication here.
  2. It's possible LaRussa changed his mind about Edmonds in part because he got new information about his condition. Note also that he had a very long meeting with all the medical staff.

I hope I'm right and you're wrong for a change, lboros.

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jun 5, 2006 9:23 AM EDT reply actions  

I hope
you're right too. I don't know how Jed looked on TV closeups, but at the game he looked great--not at all like Rolen struggling in pain last year. Between innings Jed was smiling and laughing and joking around--didn't look to be in any pain or discomfort. Let's hope that's a good omen, cuz the news on Albert is certainly a bit more disconcerting today than yesterday.

by rockin redbird on Jun 5, 2006 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

me too
i hope you're right, DCG. he did look fine yesterday, and the team seems convinced they're not taking a big risk.

but i'm not buying the line about la russa being unaware of edmonds' ability to swing a bat. forgive me, but i think that's a lie fabricated to provide cover for this decision. i simply don't believe that the team didn't ask jimmy daily, "how are you today; can you pinch-hit if we need you?" 3 Nights in August provides sev'l examples of la russa telling a white lie from time to time to provide cover for one reason or another; i think that's what happened here.

think back to friday night for a second. it's a tight game, the lead's going back and forth, and la russa's hampered by a short bench. edmonds is a veteran; he has seniority. if he is able to swing a bat, he goes up to la russa and tells him, "tony, i'm good to go if you need a PH." or la russa asks edmonds in the dugout --- "can you take an at-bat? can you run the bases?"

edmonds knew the team was planning to put him on the DL, and he must have thought that was the right thing to do because he apparently didn't raise any major objections. or, if he did raise objections, the team thought it prudent to overrule them.

what bothers me about this is that they didn't change their policy re edmonds because of a change in jimmy's condition; they changed it because albert got hurt.

by lboros on Jun 5, 2006 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

One factor?
Could one factor in this decision be the difference between playing CF vs. playing 1B, which is far less demanding physically than CF, especially for Jimmy, who plays it all-out, with little regard for his physical well-being?

I believe it was reported that Edmonds was in pain while running, but could swing the bat. There is far less running at 1B and generally less strenuous throwing situations than in CF.

This could actually be the ideal situation. Edmonds playing 1B, where the defensive demands physically are significantly less. This allows the Cards to have his bat in the lineup and is the best conceivable replacement for Pujols in terms of comparable production. Now, rather than a tweener 1B/OF type to help as a crutch for the Pujols-less offense, we can sit back and see how desperate the need truly is.

by bgh on Jun 5, 2006 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

another possibility
as of friday they were still probably trying to keep the option open to retroactively DL Edmonds, bring someone up from AAA, but still be able to bring Edmonds back quickly, thanks to the retro move.  Once AP got hurt, they couldn't be so cute with the roster anymore.
8/13/79- Lou Brock 3000 hits

by lb3000 on Jun 5, 2006 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's right
I'm sure that's right.  The thought was that he wasn't going to be able to play center field for another week or so, and DL'ing him retroactively would allow them to get him back in 9 or 10 days rather than the 15 they'd have to wait if he pinch hit Friday night.

Once 1B became available, everything changed because it's the running and such that is really a problem for his injury.

I'm surprised to see everyone comparing Edmonds' return to Rolen last year without any medical analysis.  I know that the party line from the Cardinals is exactly the same, and I'm worried too, but I'd like to hear what a trained professional has to say on the issue - is Edmond's injury really an injury that cannot get worse?  The Cardinals say it is, and we are doubtful - but isn't this the kind of things that reporters are supposed to dig up?  How hard would it be for Bernie to talk to someone independent of the team to get a medical analysis based on the information available?

by STLEdge on Jun 5, 2006 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

these are all really valid points
but i keep coming back to the decision not to use edmonds in friday's marathon. if it were only a matter of limiting his running, they still could have used him to pinch-hit that night (when they were desperately short of players) and then, if he reached base, lifted him for a pinch-runner (suppan or ponson, to preserve the limited bench depth). but it was deemed unwise at that time for edmonds even to walk up to the plate and take an AB.

now we're told that he's well enough to play 1st because it doesn't require as much running as playing the outfield . . . but it still requires a hell of a lot more running than pinch-hitting, no? where's the consistency in their position?

i think they simply decided to accept risks w/ jimmy that they were unwilling to accept before albert's injury. that doesn't necessarily mean edmonds' abdomen is going to fall to pieces -- and we all certainly hope not.

by lboros on Jun 5, 2006 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it boils down
to who's more important for the team. The fact that they put Albert on the DL the day after he was hurt flies in the face of the team's practice of "let's wait and see". I still expect JEd to end up on the DL eventually, maybe after Carp comes off. I could be wrong, though; it's happened before...

by cardsrul on Jun 5, 2006 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Edmonds
Given that the team eliminated the opportunity of a retro-DL move, I would be incredulous if they DL'd Edmonds now.

by MDredbird on Jun 5, 2006 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

tlr
I don't think that there is a consistency in their position.  I think their decision is attributable to tony, who should be lauded (as you indicate in today's post) for his aggressiveness yesterday, but similarly puzzled me on the aforementioned friday's game for not running (for instance after timo was on 1st after the hbp).  

They made a rational decision to start him at first yesterday.  It's arguably the fielding position that requires the least amount of regular athletic exertion (read 'running').  Consequently, before el hombre's injury, they had nowhere to play jed and were hoping that he'd heal enough to play the outfield.  I'm not sure that he could play the outfield today if needed, but the hole at 1st was a natural placement.  Perhaps with similar restrictions as el hombre had in left when his elbow was injured?  I think that they decided to accept a lower risk with jimmy that they didn't have a choice to accept before albert's injury.

I believe the best answer to your question is tony, tony, tony.  I'm not so convinced about significant risk to jimmy by ph on Friday as much as tony saw it as just one game.  I haven't looked at it, but maybe jimmy didn't match up with the cubbies relievers on friday.  Maybe tony forgot he was there.  Maybe tony thought he had already used him.  Maybe, as you suggest, he was concerned about injuring him further.  I agree with you and don't buy that tony didn't know.  they didn't communicate?  ha.  Tony is inconsistent enough in his decision making that I'm just not sure that we can come to the conclusion that you do.  It's a possibility, but one of many.

Additionally, it seems to me that jimmy as a ph has sucked on the few occasions that he's been used in that role.  Maybe he looked at history, maybe he looked at stats, maybe he looked at neither.  With the good decsions tlr made on sunday, he alternately made some poor ones like pulling johnson after 2 straight k's for a handedness matchup with blooper that history showed favored barrett.  It's conceivable that he also made a poor decision on friday.

by sdesserman on Jun 5, 2006 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

My impression of Edmonds coming back early
is that it was a gamble on TLR's part. It may have just been one game, but it was a pretty big game in that it was the first one without Pujols and no one was quite sure what to expect. On a lesser note, it also helped avoid a sweep by the Cubs in Busch III. So while it was a gamble, I think it might have been well-calculated and sensical in that it probably helped the team psyche.

Also, I know this won't do much for the rest of you, but I have a good feeling about it (unlike with Rolen last year.) I don't buy that Edmonds can't worsen the injury, but I'm inclined to believe that it's unlikely that he would; especially while playing first base.

Finally, should anything happen to Edmonds, it would be devastating, but not as devastating as if it were Pujols or Rolen. I say this because Edmonds is nearly 36 and his time is limited anyway, so an injury that affected his future isn't as big of a deal as it would be for a younger player. This may not be fair to Edmonds, but he apparently agreed to it because he thought he would be okay. This wouldn't be enough with Pujols, imo, but with an aging centerfielder, who's offensive production has been quickly dropping and is most well known for his defense, I think I can understand the decision to play him early.

by rob is back on Jun 5, 2006 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Using Edmonds
The difference between using Edmonds Friday and Sunday may not have been additional medical information, but I doubt that it was a reckless risk. The level of risk was not zero, but (from the medical information now current) it was acceptable, to show (as did Taguchi's SB) that the team will be playing hard every game, and expecting to win.  

Friday, running out of players, using him as a pinch hitter when it was considered unwise for him to run, would have potentially used up a pinchrunner if he walked or singled.

In short, I think TLR earned his money yesterday. (Less sure about Friday, but I'm not here to talk about the past....)

by madridbend on Jun 5, 2006 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Question concerning Reyes and Wainwright
Sometime recently I believe that TLR mentioned that Wainwright would be in the rotation next year. Am I being naive to think that his comment meant that Wainwright wouldn't be traded?

And what about Reyes? Has there been any such comment(s) on his status for next year?

by rob is back on Jun 5, 2006 9:24 AM EDT reply actions  

At the games this weekend
I went to Saturday's and Sunday's games, my first time to see the Cards in the new place (Nice pad! but i won't waste time repeating what others have said).

I must say that as much as I follow my team on this site, it's easy to get wrapped up in all of the potentially disasterous events of the season. The in depth analysis is why i love the site, but there's so much crap about Juan and Jason that I'd sort of forgotten what it's like to watch these players play in person.

Saturday's loss was tough, made worse by Albert's loss, but Sunday's game was more fun than I can describe. The weather was perfect and the bats were hot, even without my hero wearing #5. Juan went on a tear in the games I saw, hitting double after double. Sure, Jason was sketchy, but the platoon of players Tony threw at future Hall of Famer Maddux was perfect and I couldn't have had more fun.

Anywho, the season IS looking a bit shaky these days, but I've got to say that seeing some games in person went a long way to help me remember why I love this game to begin with.  There's my two cents. Now keep up the good work lboros and all you readers.

by effin fisk on Jun 5, 2006 10:20 AM EDT reply actions  

Cards Will Be Fine
Your team survived missing Rolen last year, the Pujols injury is just a bump in the road.  That was an important win yesterday, it limited my Cubs to picking up only a game in the standings instead of three for the series and it gave your the team confidence that it can win without your all-world player.

I hope Albert returns soon, he's fun to watch.  Here's hoping you can stay healthy the rest of the way.    

A Cubs fan just visiting

by brianp88 on Jun 5, 2006 10:30 AM EDT reply actions  

thanks brian
appreciate your comments.

by lboros on Jun 5, 2006 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Willis
If we were to trade for one on Florida's two biggest stars wouldn't make since for us to trade for Cabrera instead? I Willis is old and will be a FA sooner than Cabrera. If we were to trade for Dontrell we would have to fork up more money that it would take to sign Mulder and just as soon. We can not afford to trade either Reyes or Wainwright for a player we are only going to keep for a season and a half...

by BigMac545 on Jun 5, 2006 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

and I would rather see us sign Willis
than Mulder to a long term deal.  I like Mulder but I like Willis a helluva alot more despite is problems this year.

by azruavatar on Jun 5, 2006 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

well
you meet with his agent and get an agreement in place.  If you don't, you tell Florida the trade is off.  

by sdrone on Jun 5, 2006 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

We want a pitcher
Miggy would be an amazing addition to the team, but what in the world would we do for pitching next year? Or for the rest of this year if Carp is hurt again? Bullpen games are nice once in a while, but they're not going to hold up come playoff time, and we've got a lot of free agents to worry about.

by effin fisk on Jun 5, 2006 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I second the motion on TLR's aggressiveness
It was great so see.    I'd like to see Eck run a bit more; since he doesn't, that's why I don't mind seeing Luna hitting 2nd - the problem?  Luna never runs!  Heh.

I like the aggressiveness.  My guess is that we'll see more of it.

by sdrone on Jun 5, 2006 10:47 AM EDT reply actions  

running
Luna doesn't run because he's hitting in front of Pujols.
Cardinals Jayhawks all the way.

by birdland on Jun 5, 2006 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Willis is in his 3rd
This is going to be Willis 3rd year of ML service so he has 2 more years of Arbitration.

What sucks is that we can't even trade any of our starters right now because they all have such low trade value. They are all slumping bad. We just got hope that the other teams do their trades like they vote for HOF and Cy Young. By their number of wins. Then Marquis is #1.

Oh just think they got Hanley Ramirez for Beckett. What do we have to offer any where close to that?

The stealing yesterday was great. Taguchi got an amazing jump in the first. I also was at the game. It was a nice cool day.

by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 12:23 PM EDT reply actions  

update from Miklasz
Bernie had Paletta on his radio show this a.m. Per his forum:
  • Pujols most likely out 4 weeks ... worst case six weeks.
  • No MRI yet for Puhols today; will know more later.
  • Cardinals medical staff will be "very conservative" in getting AP back.
  • Risk to Pujols is pain will subside, and he will think he's ready to play, but that isn't always the case. The pain level is only one indicator; if it goes away it doesn't mean the oblique is healed.
  • Edmonds cleared because sports-hernia specialist does not believe Edmonds can do more damage to himself by playing.
  • Sports hernia specialist has said all along that Edmonds can swing bat.
  • Running is the biggest obstacle and risk; Edmonds knows he has to be under control and cant push it.
  • Edmonds cannot play the OF.
  • Edmonds likely would have gone on DL if Pujols hadnt gotten hurt.
  • They will take it day by day... if Edmonds is hurting, they will shut him down. they will review every day and talk to him every day and be cautiious with him.
  • Carpenter is all set. 100 percent.
I know i have missed some things; those who heard the interview can fill in some of the blanks.

Thanks for your interest.

This is why you need to listen to the show!

We also had Ken Rosenthal on -- and he thinks Cardinals might make a run at Carl Crawford...

--B

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jun 5, 2006 12:27 PM EDT reply actions  

If anyone can find a PCI AM Tuner
I have been trying hard to find an AM tuner for my computer so bad. So I can start recording some of these conversations and run them back.

I would also stream the game online. Friday night I watched the game on someones cell phone that they were streaming from home. It was cool as hell. If you guys would be interested in something like that I can provide more detailed instructions.

by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Griffin RadioShark
AM/FM tuner, connects through USB.

by Quietude on Jun 5, 2006 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks
Thanks it is harder than you think to find one.

by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have an ISA radio card
You can buy an ISA to PCI bridge adapter that would probably let you use an ISA card. Another option would be to buy a fancy video card that has a FM tuner on it. I believe Hauppauge makes one and I don't think that they're the only one who does.

by rob is back on Jun 5, 2006 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I own an FM tuner card
I own a card that has FM tuner on it but I want AM.

I would like to be able to stream 550 to my phone. I already know how to stream TV games to my phone.

by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

alternate solution
why don't you just get a regular AM radio that has a headphone jack on it and if you know you always listen to AM 550, just leave it set on that and always have it going into your line in?

There is the not being able to change radio stations remotely but it would do what you want well enough and it would be cheap.  Single headphone jack to headphone jack cable and an am radio with headphone jack. probably only $20-25.

by dontEATnachos on Jun 5, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ahh...I wasn't paying attention again.
I missed the AM part.

How are you streaming the games to your cell phone? During the last World Cup, I streamed some games to a friend in Germany who had to pay for them over there, but I haven't messed with streaming video since and know nothing of streaming to cell phones.

Also, would it be possible to pick up the feed online?

by rob is back on Jun 5, 2006 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cell Phone Streaming
I'd imagine he'd just call his home phone with his cell phone and using the modem in his PC it would respond with the audio from the broadcast.

by dontEATnachos on Jun 5, 2006 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also
Or I suppose he could have a cell phone with EVDO or another 3g connection and stream audio that way, but it would be able to do streaming with Windows Mobile or something.

by dontEATnachos on Jun 5, 2006 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

carl crawford's list of comparable players
from baseball-reference:
#1 claudell washington
#2 whitey lockman
#3 terry puhl
#4 ROBERTO CLEMENTE ??

also, rickey henderson's at #8

from baseball prospectus:
#1 willie davis
#2 darin erstad
#3 willie wilson
#4 carlos beltran
#5 johnny damon

11 is ray lankford
13 is corey patterson
14 is garry templeton

PECOTA projects him as a pretty consistent high-average, low on-base, low power, high speed type of player --- 4 to 5 wins above replacement level. a good not great player.

he's a good value --- under contract through '08 on favorable terms

by lboros on Jun 5, 2006 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Crawford
Carl Crawford would be great but Im not sure he is the type of player that we need at this point. Crawford is a leadoff hitter... thou he does have some pop I dont think Crawford is the kind of guy that you want in the middle of your lineup. I could see Crawford hitting 3rd with Pujols on the DL but after he comes back where would you hit him? Hitting him 5 or 6 is far too long in the order to use his speed to the fullest. So that means the only other spot is to hit him second... which would produce a line up like this

Eck
Crawford
Pujols
Rolen
Edmonds
Encarnicion
Yadi
Miles/Luna

This is certainly a better lineup than what we have now but I think we would all agree that J-Rod and Luna have done a nice job in the 2 hole so far this year. What we need is someone who can hit 5th or 6th that has some pop. Crawford isnt that guy.

by BigMac545 on Jun 5, 2006 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Crawford
I LOVE Carl Crawford, but I also agree that he may not be the kind of player that the Cardinals really need right now. Sure, I'd gladly take him, but I'd be much more excited about adding more of a power bat. (Miguel Cabrera!)
That's a Winner!

by WarningTrackPower on Jun 5, 2006 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Last year...
didn't we disect the use of a position player in the 9th hole and the pitcher in the 8th hole?   Does it make sense to play a guy like Eckstein in the 9th hole, Crawford at one, Luna at two and so on?  

I think BP did an analysis and found that this arrangement can be extremely effective.  

Also, I see no problem with Carl in the two hole if the purpose is put guys in scoring position for Albert.  Between them, Eckstein and Carl can create havoc for an opposing pitcher: Eckstein by taking a lot of pitches and Crawford by stealing or at least threatening to steal second.  I would mess myself if I had to deal with Crawford at first, trying to stretch a lead off and Albert at the dish.  I don't know if can be measured statistically but I'm sure that it would create more mistakes that Albert can capitalize on.  

by Brock20 on Jun 5, 2006 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you put Crawford in front of Pujols
Fantasy owners would be pissed.  He would no longer be stealing bases.  I wouldn't care, though.  I love his game.

by Schnake on Jun 5, 2006 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Crawford/Eckstein
If we got Crawford, I think you have to bat the guy in the leadoff spot. His biggest asset is his speed and batting him behind Eckstein (who doesnt run) and in front of Pujols would give him virtually zero chances to run. Crawford would have to leadoff so he could run with Eckstein batting 2nd. Eckstein would be a great hit and run guy and is capable of bunting a guy over or even advancing Crawford to 3rd after he doubles or steals 2nd. Problem with all that is that TLR likes power from the 2-spot..not exactly something Eckstein brings to the table.
That's a Winner!

by WarningTrackPower on Jun 5, 2006 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have to say,
Bernie's column today is one of my all-time favorites from him.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 5, 2006 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

couple of notes
here are a couple of notes from espn.com regarding the absence of pujols:

"Jim Edmonds, playing first base in place of Pujols, was 3-for-3 with a pair of RBI in the "Cardinals' 9-6 win over the Cubs. St. Louis first basemen other than Pujols are 6-for-15 with five RBI this season."

"Pujols has missed only 23 games since his big league debut in 2001, with the Cardinals posting a higher winning percentage in those games (.609, 14-9) than they did in the games he played (.594, 501-342). Over that span (2001-06), only three NL players have appeared in more games than Pujols (843): Bobby Abreu (852), Juan Pierre (849) and Shawn Green (846)."

The St. Louis Cardinals: No Curses, No Excuses, Just Wins

by amettrick on Jun 5, 2006 12:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Willis
Isn't anyone worried about the mediocre year Willis is having this year?  His ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB are all worse than they've ever been in his career.  I think there's a chance major leaguers have gotten used to his quirky delivery and are seeing the ball better than they used to.  I don't know how excited I am about Dontrelle.

by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 12:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Truthfully
I will take my Chance with a young Willis. It is actually a good thing I think to see his numbers so bad. It lowers his trade value. Too bad Mulder is trying to do the same thing.

by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

i'm nervous...
i like willis but i'm a little afraid of him pulling a mulder if we trade for him.  to be fair, his poor era this year is almost entirely due to three consecutive piss poor starts.  he's allowed three earned runs or less in 8 of 12 starts.  he'd be a pretty nice upgrade over anyone not named carpenter.

by dmb60614 on Jun 5, 2006 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

PECOTA
people talk a lot about pecota here.  from context, it seems to be a projection of a players stats.  is that correct?

by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 1:30 PM EDT reply actions  

PECOTA
Yes, it is a projection system developed by Baseball Prospectus. Here is a bit explaining part of it:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?context=6&category=true

---------
Comparable Players are the backbone of a player's PECOTA. Only the twenty best comparables are listed here, but as many as 100 players may be used in the generation of his forecast if they are sufficiently comparable.

For Hitters:

PECOTA compares each hitter against a database of roughly 20,000 major league batter seasons since World War II. In addition, it also draws upon a database of roughly 10,000 translated minor league seasons (1998-2005) for hitters who spent most of their previous season in the minor leagues. (When minor league comparables are used, they appear in ALL CAPS). PECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a hitter's comparability:

  1. Production metrics--in particular, batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, groundball:flyball ratio and a modified version of the Bill James speed score.
  2. Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances.
  3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height and weight.
  4. Fielding Position. PECOTA doesn't require that a comparable hitter play the same defensive position; it is a factor that is evaluated along with many others, and assigned a relatively substantial weight. Consideration is also given to the 'similarity' between two positions; for example, a shortstop will be compared to a second baseman before he is compared to a left fielder. (See additional discussion).
For Pitchers:

PECOTA compares each pitcher against a database of roughly 15,000 major league pitcher seasons since World War II, and 10,000 minor league pitcher seasons from 1998-2005. Pitchers are compared only against others of the same age. PECOTA considers three broad categories of attributes in determining comparability:

  1. Production metrics such as strikeout rates, walk rates, isolated power and batting average against, and groundball:flyball ratio.
  2. Usage metrics such as career length, total batters faced, and percentage of innings pitched in starting/relief.
  3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height, and weight.
In most cases, the database is large enough to provide a meaningfully large set of appropriate comparables. When it isn't, the program is designed to 'cheat' by expanding its tolerance for dissimilar players until a reasonable sample size is reached. In the case of very old or very young players, there may not be a significant number of pitchers who appeared in the major leagues at all at that age, and so the results of their forecast may be unreliable.
-------------

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

PECOTA
is a system owned by Baseball Prospectus. They use trends, age, and all kinds of other factors to predict performance.

by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry, mikedallas
your explanation was Albert Pujols to my Chris Duncan.

by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Draft Tomorrow
I dunno if anyone has been paying attention but the Amature draft is tomorrow. John Sickels has us selection two HS OFs (Chris Parmelee and Jason Place) with our first round and Sup First round picks. The one guy I would like us to take (Thou he would have to fall a lot) is 3rd baseman Matt Antonelli from Wake Forest. I go to Wake and have seen Matt play. He hit .333 this year and has life time average over .320. He hit 11 HRs this year in 219 ABs and stole 15 bases in 19 attempts. He also plays a good thrid base (despite what the ESPN guy says). Most mocks have him going in the early 20's so it would take a minor mircle for him to slip all the way down to 30. But who know what can happen

by BigMac545 on Jun 5, 2006 1:33 PM EDT reply actions  

OT....
not for nuthin', but does anyone know what happened to Fungoes site? It looks like someone hijacked the url...

by cardsrul on Jun 5, 2006 1:49 PM EDT reply actions  

duncan
any chance that duncan gets a call up to audition for big league scouts?

by slonim on Jun 5, 2006 3:07 PM EDT reply actions  

already got the call
he was in uniform yesterday.
The St. Louis Cardinals: No Curses, No Excuses, Just Wins

by amettrick on Jun 5, 2006 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah i know
i meant:  was he called up so that other teams can get a look at him facing big league pitching, i.e. is he going to be included in some kind of trade...?

by slonim on Jun 5, 2006 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I, too, don't understand the edmonds situation
I understand that he can't make it any worse by playing 1B.  But it won't get any better either.  So is the plan to stick him at 1B until Pujols comes back, then put Jimmy on the DL so his groin will heal so he can then go back to playing CF?  Maybe that's the better play than putting him on the DL now as well but he can't hardly move around on the bases at all.  It seems like just running the bases increases the possibility that we lose him for a long time.  Shouldn't we just bite the bullet and DL him now also for 15 days and bring him back in CF?  If Albert's out for 4 weeks, then we're losing Jimmy in CF for 6!  At least!

by chuckb on Jun 5, 2006 3:44 PM EDT reply actions  

No one has said
it won't get better, that I know of.

by sdrone on Jun 5, 2006 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

how could it get better
with him playing every day, even at 1B?  If he hits, he'll be running the bases.  Is it realistic to think it will heal with him playing every day?  I'm certainly no doctor and could be wrong but it doesn't make sense to me to think that it might heal with him playing every day.

by chuckb on Jun 5, 2006 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Running
I think there's a difference between patrolling the outfield and running from base to base.  I seem to remember someone saying that it was bursts of speed that aggravated Edmond's injury; I don't think Edmonds is going to be stealing any bases or beating out many infield ground balls, but I bet Edmonds at cruising speed is still faster than Molina.

by STLEdge on Jun 5, 2006 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wait a minute ...
wouldn't the basepaths be the MOST likely place you'd need "bursts of speed"?  It seems to me that baserunning calls for a lot more types of movements--multiple cuts, sprints, turns, slides, etc. than running in a more or less straight line to catch a fly.  Baserunning seems like a far more unpredictable activity to me.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 5, 2006 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not really
He's not gonna steal, or do a hit and run.   He can jog base to base on singles.  If he doesn't wanna take 3rd from 1st or home from 2nd on a single, he doesn't have to.  

You can eliminate a lot of the burst type movement from baserunning if you need to and still get the job done.   In the outfield, you really can't do that and still be effective.

by sdrone on Jun 5, 2006 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think that it's less bursts of speed,
and more a matter of predicability.  You can predict pretty well what you need to do on the basepaths and eliminate risks.

It's more difficult to predict how to respond to the path of a batted ball, whether or not to dive, cut the ball off, or lay up.  Given jed's generally all-out, give-up-my-body, reckless style of playing cf, I'm more comfortable with him running the bases and doing so conservatively.

by sdesserman on Jun 5, 2006 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

MU vs Pepperdine
MU vs Pepperdine

1-0 MU in bottom of 3rd. Elimination game for both teams

by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 4:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Edmonds' return
I think the decisions to not use JE on Friday night, yet use him Sunday, are based on a combination of plausible factors:
   1) The medical advice, if I read between the lines correctly, was probably that he would likely aggravate his injury playing the outfield as he plays it, but that he could hit safely if he ran the bases under orders re acceleration, sliding, etc.  After Albert was hurt, the Drs probably advised that playing 1B was safe, with the same limitations.  I suspect that safe outfield play was deemed a week or more away.
   2)  Given the limitations the plan was to DL him retroactively, and his non-use Friday hinged on preserving that option.  I was surprised that they delayed the DL and left the bench so short, especially in light of the unavailability of Spezio.
    3)  All this changed after Albert's injury and the (probable) medical advice that 1B was ok.

The danger I see in his playing relates to his ability to control his instincts and obey the limitations. We all worried that AP couldn't do that with his elbow, and he proved us wrong.  But I doubt that Edmonds, or most people, is as disciplined as Albert.

I hasten to add that I am no expert in Sports Medicine, so everything in this post is speculative.  But if it is close, then the events as transpired make some sense.

by oldbirdwatcher on Jun 5, 2006 6:12 PM EDT reply actions  

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