it just gets strainer and strainer . . . .
pujols, shmujols. who needs the bum?
we whip la russa a lot of sh*t at this site, and sometimes he even deserves it. so let's give him his due for flashing taguchi the green light in two risky base-stealing situations yesterday. first one came in the bottom of the 1st -- gooch on first (walk), rolen batting, cards trailing 1-0, and la russa sends the runner. love the call. in anxious times (whether on a ballfield or otherwise), just taking action -- any action -- can have a settling effect. i think the 1st-inning steal helped do that; it put the team in an action-taking frame of mind right from the start, dumped 'em immediately into the flow of the ballgame -- and maybe eased the constipation that had frozen them (or their pitcher, anyway) in the belabored, 32-pitch top of the 1st.
the other steal also came with the cards trailing, now 5-3 in the 5th inning. same situation -- gucci on 1st (single), rolen batting. this time the throw got away, and taguchi scampered to 3d, later scored on a single. in both cases, the steal came at the front of a 3-run inning. i don't want to oversell this -- stolen bases do not cause subsequent hits -- but i also don't want the subtext to get overlooked. those were a couple of fearless moves. i think it emboldened the cardinals to see someone leading the charge; it set a good tone, and the players all fed off it. that's strong leadership. attaboy, tony.
as for the decision to play edmonds . . . . . well, no doubt jimmy's unexpected appearance on the lineup card also stiffened a few spines -- maybe more so than the 2 steals. but two nights ago he was so infirm that he couldn't even pinch-hit in a 14-inning game that emptied the bench -- and now all of a sudden he's well enough to hit cleanup and play all 9 innings? i mean, they didn't even sub him out after taking a 9-5 lead in the 6th inning. . . . doesn't add up. after reading miklasz's postgame quote dump, i came away with the sense that la russa acted here out of fear, not courage. before albert's injury, tony had been doing the prudent and responsible thing -- keeping edmonds out of action, preparing to put him on the DL in hopes of getting him well for the 2d half. but then, suddenly bereft of middle-order hitters and worried about where his offense was going to come from, la russa took a chance and asked -- or at the very least, allowed -- edmonds to play. and for what -- to avoid a sweep? edmonds played a brilliant game, but at what cost down the road? all parties claim there is zero risk of making this injury worse by playing on it, but i don't know if i'm buying that. and even if it's true, the memory of rolen screaming in pain with each swing last summer is still pretty fresh; i can't believe that taxing an injured 35-year-old body in june is going to pay dividends in september/october. if disabling edmonds was the right thing to do as of friday, then it's still the right thing to do today, pujols injury or no.
see bernie's column for more in this vein -- and to learn, among other things, what a Lazarus taxon is.
the handling of edmonds does not give me comfort vis-vis albert. he will no doubt demand to come back before he's ready -- that's his nature -- so it'll be up to the team to keep him out of action until it's truly safe for him to play again, with minimal risk of re-aggravating the injury. but suppose it's early july and the cards are feeling heat from the astros, or they've fallen a few games behind the reds, and albert says "get me out there dammit, i'm fine, i gotta help the team" . . . . will the cards impose the discipline necessary to avoid a foolish risk? or will anxiety cloud la russa's judgment, as it may have done here?
consider what happened when woody williams sustained this injury in 2002 -- not a pretty story. he popped the oblique in his 1st start of the season and sat for five weeks; came back may 15, at a time when the cardinals were desperate for rotation stability -- they stood 13th in the league in era and were 4.5 games out of first place, playing .500 ball -- and pitched well for 11 starts. but he reinjured the oblique during his july 6 start and had to sit again, this time for seven weeks. returned on august 29, with the cards clinging to a 2.5-game lead, but still wasn't sound; he made five more starts but had to come out of a game on september 20 and missed the 1st round of the playoffs. still sore, he took the mound for the 2d game of the nlcs, throwing 6 courageous innings in a loss to jason schmidt. the upshot -- he came back too soon, and as a result the injury bedeviled him all season; williams needed a full off-season of rest to shake it. he came back hale in 2003 and had a career year, with highs in wins and innings pitched.
did the cardinals rush him back too soon and increase the odds of a recurrence? who knows; it's a difficult injury under the best of circumstances, and it can get reaggravated even if every precaution is taken. maybe an extra week or two of rest in may 2002 wouldn't have made a difference for woody williams. either way, his story exemplifies why extreme patience is in order -- and it's going to be up to the team's leaders to enforce it.
as they didn't do in the edmonds case.
p-d has an update on albert's condition.
here's some gossip from a reliable source: the cards are among the most earnest suitors of florida's dontrelle willis, jostling with the diamondbacks for the marlins' attention. if they should eventually make a formal trade offer, it'd likely be a three-way transaction, with the cards trading a veteran somewhere for some prospects and flipping them, along with reyes or wainwright or somebody, for dontrelle.
oh, and since i mentioned jason schmidt a couple paragraphs ago -- i'm also hearing the cards are starting to scout him . . . . . . .
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Comments
drooling at the thought of acquiring Willis
I hope Jimmy was really ok enough to play...but either way it was dang good to see him hitting with a little authority.
it'd be a coup
is it safe to assume
by WarningTrackPower on Jun 5, 2006 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Would you rather have Mulder or Willis?
agreed
by WarningTrackPower on Jun 5, 2006 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
If we could do it
Besides, why not get something out of Mulder before we lose him to FA? I pretty much view Mulder as a rental player and I'm not sure that he's worth the money that we're paying to rent him. I'd rather put that money too good use where it's needed elsewhere, if we could sign a playoff-caliber pitcher to replace him.
I kinda assumed it was a long shot
Edmonds
1. We've got some exceptionally poor lines of communication here.
2. It's possible LaRussa changed his mind about Edmonds in part because he got new information about his condition. Note also that he had a very long meeting with all the medical staff.
I hope I'm right and you're wrong for a change, lboros.
I hope
by rockin redbird on Jun 5, 2006 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
me too
but i'm not buying the line about la russa being unaware of edmonds' ability to swing a bat. forgive me, but i think that's a lie fabricated to provide cover for this decision. i simply don't believe that the team didn't ask jimmy daily, "how are you today; can you pinch-hit if we need you?" 3 Nights in August provides sev'l examples of la russa telling a white lie from time to time to provide cover for one reason or another; i think that's what happened here.
think back to friday night for a second. it's a tight game, the lead's going back and forth, and la russa's hampered by a short bench. edmonds is a veteran; he has seniority. if he is able to swing a bat, he goes up to la russa and tells him, "tony, i'm good to go if you need a PH." or la russa asks edmonds in the dugout --- "can you take an at-bat? can you run the bases?"
edmonds knew the team was planning to put him on the DL, and he must have thought that was the right thing to do because he apparently didn't raise any major objections. or, if he did raise objections, the team thought it prudent to overrule them.
what bothers me about this is that they didn't change their policy re edmonds because of a change in jimmy's condition; they changed it because albert got hurt.
One factor?
I believe it was reported that Edmonds was in pain while running, but could swing the bat. There is far less running at 1B and generally less strenuous throwing situations than in CF.
This could actually be the ideal situation. Edmonds playing 1B, where the defensive demands physically are significantly less. This allows the Cards to have his bat in the lineup and is the best conceivable replacement for Pujols in terms of comparable production. Now, rather than a tweener 1B/OF type to help as a crutch for the Pujols-less offense, we can sit back and see how desperate the need truly is.
another possibility
That's right
Once 1B became available, everything changed because it's the running and such that is really a problem for his injury.
I'm surprised to see everyone comparing Edmonds' return to Rolen last year without any medical analysis. I know that the party line from the Cardinals is exactly the same, and I'm worried too, but I'd like to hear what a trained professional has to say on the issue - is Edmond's injury really an injury that cannot get worse? The Cardinals say it is, and we are doubtful - but isn't this the kind of things that reporters are supposed to dig up? How hard would it be for Bernie to talk to someone independent of the team to get a medical analysis based on the information available?
these are all really valid points
now we're told that he's well enough to play 1st because it doesn't require as much running as playing the outfield . . . but it still requires a hell of a lot more running than pinch-hitting, no? where's the consistency in their position?
i think they simply decided to accept risks w/ jimmy that they were unwilling to accept before albert's injury. that doesn't necessarily mean edmonds' abdomen is going to fall to pieces -- and we all certainly hope not.
I think it boils down
Edmonds
by MDredbird on Jun 5, 2006 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
tlr
They made a rational decision to start him at first yesterday. It's arguably the fielding position that requires the least amount of regular athletic exertion (read 'running'). Consequently, before el hombre's injury, they had nowhere to play jed and were hoping that he'd heal enough to play the outfield. I'm not sure that he could play the outfield today if needed, but the hole at 1st was a natural placement. Perhaps with similar restrictions as el hombre had in left when his elbow was injured? I think that they decided to accept a lower risk with jimmy that they didn't have a choice to accept before albert's injury.
I believe the best answer to your question is tony, tony, tony. I'm not so convinced about significant risk to jimmy by ph on Friday as much as tony saw it as just one game. I haven't looked at it, but maybe jimmy didn't match up with the cubbies relievers on friday. Maybe tony forgot he was there. Maybe tony thought he had already used him. Maybe, as you suggest, he was concerned about injuring him further. I agree with you and don't buy that tony didn't know. they didn't communicate? ha. Tony is inconsistent enough in his decision making that I'm just not sure that we can come to the conclusion that you do. It's a possibility, but one of many.
Additionally, it seems to me that jimmy as a ph has sucked on the few occasions that he's been used in that role. Maybe he looked at history, maybe he looked at stats, maybe he looked at neither. With the good decsions tlr made on sunday, he alternately made some poor ones like pulling johnson after 2 straight k's for a handedness matchup with blooper that history showed favored barrett. It's conceivable that he also made a poor decision on friday.
My impression of Edmonds coming back early
Also, I know this won't do much for the rest of you, but I have a good feeling about it (unlike with Rolen last year.) I don't buy that Edmonds can't worsen the injury, but I'm inclined to believe that it's unlikely that he would; especially while playing first base.
Finally, should anything happen to Edmonds, it would be devastating, but not as devastating as if it were Pujols or Rolen. I say this because Edmonds is nearly 36 and his time is limited anyway, so an injury that affected his future isn't as big of a deal as it would be for a younger player. This may not be fair to Edmonds, but he apparently agreed to it because he thought he would be okay. This wouldn't be enough with Pujols, imo, but with an aging centerfielder, who's offensive production has been quickly dropping and is most well known for his defense, I think I can understand the decision to play him early.
Using Edmonds
Friday, running out of players, using him as a pinch hitter when it was considered unwise for him to run, would have potentially used up a pinchrunner if he walked or singled.
In short, I think TLR earned his money yesterday. (Less sure about Friday, but I'm not here to talk about the past....)
Question concerning Reyes and Wainwright
And what about Reyes? Has there been any such comment(s) on his status for next year?
At the games this weekend
I must say that as much as I follow my team on this site, it's easy to get wrapped up in all of the potentially disasterous events of the season. The in depth analysis is why i love the site, but there's so much crap about Juan and Jason that I'd sort of forgotten what it's like to watch these players play in person.
Saturday's loss was tough, made worse by Albert's loss, but Sunday's game was more fun than I can describe. The weather was perfect and the bats were hot, even without my hero wearing #5. Juan went on a tear in the games I saw, hitting double after double. Sure, Jason was sketchy, but the platoon of players Tony threw at future Hall of Famer Maddux was perfect and I couldn't have had more fun.
Anywho, the season IS looking a bit shaky these days, but I've got to say that seeing some games in person went a long way to help me remember why I love this game to begin with. There's my two cents. Now keep up the good work lboros and all you readers.
Cards Will Be Fine
I hope Albert returns soon, he's fun to watch. Here's hoping you can stay healthy the rest of the way.
by brianp88 on Jun 5, 2006 10:30 AM EDT reply actions
Willis
We can sign him to an extention
and I would rather see us sign Willis
We want a pitcher
I second the motion on TLR's aggressiveness
I like the aggressiveness. My guess is that we'll see more of it.
Willis is in his 3rd
What sucks is that we can't even trade any of our starters right now because they all have such low trade value. They are all slumping bad. We just got hope that the other teams do their trades like they vote for HOF and Cy Young. By their number of wins. Then Marquis is #1.
Oh just think they got Hanley Ramirez for Beckett. What do we have to offer any where close to that?
The stealing yesterday was great. Taguchi got an amazing jump in the first. I also was at the game. It was a nice cool day.
update from Miklasz
- Pujols most likely out 4 weeks ... worst case six weeks.
- No MRI yet for Puhols today; will know more later.
- Cardinals medical staff will be "very conservative" in getting AP back.
- Risk to Pujols is pain will subside, and he will think he's ready to play, but that isn't always the case. The pain level is only one indicator; if it goes away it doesn't mean the oblique is healed.
- Edmonds cleared because sports-hernia specialist does not believe Edmonds can do more damage to himself by playing.
- Sports hernia specialist has said all along that Edmonds can swing bat.
- Running is the biggest obstacle and risk; Edmonds knows he has to be under control and cant push it.
- Edmonds cannot play the OF.
- Edmonds likely would have gone on DL if Pujols hadnt gotten hurt.
- They will take it day by day... if Edmonds is hurting, they will shut him down. they will review every day and talk to him every day and be cautiious with him.
- Carpenter is all set. 100 percent.
Thanks for your interest.
This is why you need to listen to the show!
We also had Ken Rosenthal on -- and he thinks Cardinals might make a run at Carl Crawford...
--B
If anyone can find a PCI AM Tuner
I would also stream the game online. Friday night I watched the game on someones cell phone that they were streaming from home. It was cool as hell. If you guys would be interested in something like that I can provide more detailed instructions.
by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Griffin RadioShark
by Quietude on Jun 5, 2006 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I have an ISA radio card
I own an FM tuner card
I would like to be able to stream 550 to my phone. I already know how to stream TV games to my phone.
by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
alternate solution
There is the not being able to change radio stations remotely but it would do what you want well enough and it would be cheap. Single headphone jack to headphone jack cable and an am radio with headphone jack. probably only $20-25.
by dontEATnachos on Jun 5, 2006 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahh...I wasn't paying attention again.
How are you streaming the games to your cell phone? During the last World Cup, I streamed some games to a friend in Germany who had to pay for them over there, but I haven't messed with streaming video since and know nothing of streaming to cell phones.
Also, would it be possible to pick up the feed online?
Cell Phone Streaming
by dontEATnachos on Jun 5, 2006 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
by dontEATnachos on Jun 5, 2006 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
carl crawford's list of comparable players
#1 claudell washington
#2 whitey lockman
#3 terry puhl
#4 ROBERTO CLEMENTE ??
also, rickey henderson's at #8
from baseball prospectus:
#1 willie davis
#2 darin erstad
#3 willie wilson
#4 carlos beltran
#5 johnny damon
11 is ray lankford
13 is corey patterson
14 is garry templeton
PECOTA projects him as a pretty consistent high-average, low on-base, low power, high speed type of player --- 4 to 5 wins above replacement level. a good not great player.
he's a good value --- under contract through '08 on favorable terms
Crawford
Eck
Crawford
Pujols
Rolen
Edmonds
Encarnicion
Yadi
Miles/Luna
This is certainly a better lineup than what we have now but I think we would all agree that J-Rod and Luna have done a nice job in the 2 hole so far this year. What we need is someone who can hit 5th or 6th that has some pop. Crawford isnt that guy.
Crawford
by WarningTrackPower on Jun 5, 2006 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Last year...
I think BP did an analysis and found that this arrangement can be extremely effective.
Also, I see no problem with Carl in the two hole if the purpose is put guys in scoring position for Albert. Between them, Eckstein and Carl can create havoc for an opposing pitcher: Eckstein by taking a lot of pitches and Crawford by stealing or at least threatening to steal second. I would mess myself if I had to deal with Crawford at first, trying to stretch a lead off and Albert at the dish. I don't know if can be measured statistically but I'm sure that it would create more mistakes that Albert can capitalize on.
If you put Crawford in front of Pujols
Crawford/Eckstein
by WarningTrackPower on Jun 5, 2006 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to say,
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 5, 2006 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
couple of notes
"Jim Edmonds, playing first base in place of Pujols, was 3-for-3 with a pair of RBI in the "Cardinals' 9-6 win over the Cubs. St. Louis first basemen other than Pujols are 6-for-15 with five RBI this season."
"Pujols has missed only 23 games since his big league debut in 2001, with the Cardinals posting a higher winning percentage in those games (.609, 14-9) than they did in the games he played (.594, 501-342). Over that span (2001-06), only three NL players have appeared in more games than Pujols (843): Bobby Abreu (852), Juan Pierre (849) and Shawn Green (846)."
Willis
by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 12:56 PM EDT reply actions
Truthfully
by DimitroffVodka on Jun 5, 2006 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm nervous...
PECOTA
by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 1:30 PM EDT reply actions
PECOTA
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?context=6&category=true
---------
Comparable Players are the backbone of a player's PECOTA. Only the twenty best comparables are listed here, but as many as 100 players may be used in the generation of his forecast if they are sufficiently comparable.
For Hitters:
PECOTA compares each hitter against a database of roughly 20,000 major league batter seasons since World War II. In addition, it also draws upon a database of roughly 10,000 translated minor league seasons (1998-2005) for hitters who spent most of their previous season in the minor leagues. (When minor league comparables are used, they appear in ALL CAPS). PECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a hitter's comparability:
- Production metrics--in particular, batting average, isolated power, unintentional walk rate, strikeout rate, groundball:flyball ratio and a modified version of the Bill James speed score.
- Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances.
- Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height and weight.
- Fielding Position. PECOTA doesn't require that a comparable hitter play the same defensive position; it is a factor that is evaluated along with many others, and assigned a relatively substantial weight. Consideration is also given to the 'similarity' between two positions; for example, a shortstop will be compared to a second baseman before he is compared to a left fielder. (See additional discussion).
PECOTA compares each pitcher against a database of roughly 15,000 major league pitcher seasons since World War II, and 10,000 minor league pitcher seasons from 1998-2005. Pitchers are compared only against others of the same age. PECOTA considers three broad categories of attributes in determining comparability:
- Production metrics such as strikeout rates, walk rates, isolated power and batting average against, and groundball:flyball ratio.
- Usage metrics such as career length, total batters faced, and percentage of innings pitched in starting/relief.
- Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height, and weight.
-------------
by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
PECOTA
by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, mikedallas
by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Draft Tomorrow
espn article
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=ballparks/newbuschstadium
by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 5, 2006 1:40 PM EDT reply actions
OT....
duncan
by slonim on Jun 5, 2006 3:07 PM EDT reply actions
already got the call
yeah i know
by slonim on Jun 5, 2006 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I, too, don't understand the edmonds situation
No one has said
how could it get better
Running
Wait a minute ...
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 5, 2006 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really
You can eliminate a lot of the burst type movement from baserunning if you need to and still get the job done. In the outfield, you really can't do that and still be effective.
I think that it's less bursts of speed,
It's more difficult to predict how to respond to the path of a batted ball, whether or not to dive, cut the ball off, or lay up. Given jed's generally all-out, give-up-my-body, reckless style of playing cf, I'm more comfortable with him running the bases and doing so conservatively.
Game is
Edmonds' return
1) The medical advice, if I read between the lines correctly, was probably that he would likely aggravate his injury playing the outfield as he plays it, but that he could hit safely if he ran the bases under orders re acceleration, sliding, etc. After Albert was hurt, the Drs probably advised that playing 1B was safe, with the same limitations. I suspect that safe outfield play was deemed a week or more away.
2) Given the limitations the plan was to DL him retroactively, and his non-use Friday hinged on preserving that option. I was surprised that they delayed the DL and left the bench so short, especially in light of the unavailability of Spezio.
3) All this changed after Albert's injury and the (probable) medical advice that 1B was ok.
The danger I see in his playing relates to his ability to control his instincts and obey the limitations. We all worried that AP couldn't do that with his elbow, and he proved us wrong. But I doubt that Edmonds, or most people, is as disciplined as Albert.
I hasten to add that I am no expert in Sports Medicine, so everything in this post is speculative. But if it is close, then the events as transpired make some sense.



















