Yadier Molina

by bgh on Jun 27, 2006 3:15 PM EDT

I believe that we've touched on this in past general threads, but just how good is Yadi's defense and does it justify his playing while putting up absolutely awful offensive production?

I've noticed that he is not superior at blocking balls in the dirt. I'm ignorant to his "handling of the staff" and don't recall having seen any pieces lauding him or slamming him in this area. He does have an absolute cannon, but, in this day and age, just how important is that? (If this were the days of turf and Whitey, it'd be more valuable.)

His June production has picked up, but his last week has been on par with his first two months (.190 BA/.227 OBP/.286 SLG). Here is the breakdown by month...

April:

.152 BA/.160 OBP/ .190 SLG

May:

.206 BA/ .315 OBP/ .270 SLG

June:

.297 BA/ .338 OBP/ .469 SLG

Total (MLB Rank in Parentheses):

.214 BA (29)/ .266 OBP (29)/ .301 SLG (30)

It is not unrealistic to assume that his numbers will peak in June and July and then fall off as the wears and tears of a long season take their toll on his offense--a common thing with catchers.

I'm someone who thought that we would see an uptick in Yadier Molina's offensive statistics this season, but have been proven dramatically wrong. Should we expect the April/May Yadier or the June Yadier? The 2005 Yadier (.252 BA (T-16th)/ .295 OBP (26th)/ .358 SLG (22nd))?

I know that we've shifted towards a more critical analysis of the squad, but I'm interested to know what you all expect from Yadier and what you think is acceptable.

Also, keep in mind, he is one of our few homegrown and cheap players.

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As long as

he's playing defense like he has, I'll accept anything over .200.

by cardsrul on Jun 27, 2006 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

Im not saying

playing molina right now is a bad idea, because 1) we don't have better option and 2) he's finally starting to come around hitting.

but as molina's season numbers stand now, he has hurt the cardinals this season, a lot. his defense, while good, doesn't nearly make up for the giant hole he has created in the lineup this season.

basically, molina needs to keep up his improved offense, because if he regresses to where he was at the beginning of the season, he hurts the team.

by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 27, 2006 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not possible to make up for a 550 OPS

with good defense. Sorry I just don't by it.

I get really tired of the axiom of handling of the staff too. These pitchers are veterans and they know their stuff. I'm hard pressed to believe that Yadi so expertly calls for specific pitches or says specific things that it makes a discernible difference compared to another catcher.

We already have what amounts to one offensive black hole with the pitcher now you add in Yadi and we essentially have 2 given outs every time through the lineup. I'm not saying Yadi needs to bat .300 but the bottom of our lineup is so impotent that we have to most of our scoring done by the 3-5 hitters...maybe six with Enc heating up.

Having said that...I don't think you can remove Yadi from the lineup financially. But they need to take the money saved there and make 1-7 more potent. If the 8th man is only gonna hit .200 you really can't afford any low OPS spots in the lineup outside of that one. But I don't think good defense makes up for offense that bad.

by azruavatar on Jun 27, 2006 4:19 PM EDT reply actions

well we said

basically the same thing at the same time. but to add to your comment about handling the staff, in Baseball Prospectus's book they did an extensive study and concluded that the supposed best catchers at handling pitching staffs (ie. mike matheny, jason varitek I think) don't improve the pitchers performance at all. its simply a myth. so you're right in saying him calling the game so expertly as people like to say does not effect the game.

by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Jun 27, 2006 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

handling the staff?

Is this the staff that has posted a double digit ERA of late? That's what we call handling the staff?

by effin fisk on Jun 27, 2006 5:06 PM EDT reply actions

Handling the Staff

It wouldn't matter if Crash Davis were calling the pitches for Mulder and/or Marquis. I agree with BP that this type of "intangible" is way overrated unless you are the Marlins and have five rookies with no idea of how to execute a scouting report. Then again, even my brother's high school team has spray charts and hot/cold zone graphs of the players they play against that their program starts on their opponents in 9th grade. My point: pitching to a hitter's weaknesses with scouting reports at your disposal is not difficult if 16, 17 and 18 year-olds do it.

by bgh on Jun 27, 2006 5:33 PM EDT reply actions

Molina is going to win a Gold Glove...

..if not this year, next.

As for his .190 average last week, how many of the hits he did have were 2-out RBI hits? I believe someone else on here showed that while Yadi isn't hitting for high averages, when it counts, he is putting the ball in play.

Look at El Hombre since his return. He's hitting in the .400 range, but has only 1 homerun and few RBIs and at crucial points in the last two games left atleast 2 batters on base.

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 27, 2006 5:49 PM EDT reply actions

Starting/Finishing Rallies

Overall line with ROB:

84 AB/.321 BA/.345 OBP/.357 SLG/24 RBI

Overall line with RISP:

49 AB/.286 BA/.345 OBP/.327 SLG/20 RBI

Overall line with RISP & 2 outs:

28 AB/.321 BA/.345 OBP/.357 SLG/12 RBI

He does a good job of finishing rallies by driving in runs when the opportunity presents itself, but how many times has he started a rally and given the pitcher to have a productive out?

Not very many:

None On:

122 AB/.139 BA/.198 OBP/.230 SLG/.428 OPS

A very, very stark comparison.

Jeter and Abreu won Gold Gloves last season, which shows how much merit defensively the award requires.

by bgh on Jun 27, 2006 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions

If Yadi

had hitting ability, why would he only use it when it counted? He's not very good and lucky, and although I think he's better than he's shown this year he's not going to be any more than an average player over the course of his career unless he can get his OBP around .320.

by DanUpBaby on Jun 27, 2006 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Value Over Replacement Player

The discrepency is far too large for it to be anything but chance.

Baseball Prospectus lists his VORP at -12.5.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=57280

VORP Definition:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=VORP

by bgh on Jun 27, 2006 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Yadi is better than his numbers

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7007&position=C
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=7007&position=C&page=7&type=full

BABIP of .223? That is insanely low, especially since he is a line drive hitter who rarely strikes out. He's just having horrible luck this year.

by SleepyCA on Jun 27, 2006 7:15 PM EDT reply actions

no he's insanely slow...

he's not going to leg anything out for a basehit where other players will get those every now and then. And here's a scary thought - he's only going to get slower as he gets older...

BABIP is a very interesting number but if you are just hitting a bunch of soft grounders then yes you are going to have a lower BABIP and it isn't bad luck. Yadi isn't exactly smacking the ball with authority only to have it find its way to a glove.

I'm not trying to sit on a high horse - I predicted .265+ AVG with 15 homer power. I was completely off base and I admit that. But I'm not going to try and defend his absolutely wretched offense this season with things like bad luck/good defense/handling of the staff. There should not be someone hitting below .225 in a major league lineup on a regular basis (unless your a pitcher of course)

by azruavatar on Jun 28, 2006 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions

no

Actually from the stats it looks like his problem is that he is popping the ball up a lot more this year- especially infield popups- that is a pretty bad thing.

As far as speed goes, he's been slow for his whole career, yet his first two years his BABIP was .300 and .256. This year it is 30+ points below the lowest of those. He's only 24; he should be improving still, not falling off.

by SleepyCA on Jun 28, 2006 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions

you're right pop-ups are a porblem

but again that isn't bad luck that means he's getting under balls rather than hitting line drives. And he may "improve" but his speed has nothing to do with age and everything to do with conditioning...he's just not that fast. Maybe it's a mechanical problem with his swing but this is not a case of bad luck despite the BABIP drop.

by azruavatar on Jun 28, 2006 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Yadi's offense

If I thought that Yadi wouldn't improve offensively, then I'd agree. But I think we have a diamond in the rough with Molina and when his batting average improves, we'll be glad that we stuck with him.

I think it's fair to say that he doesn't deserve to be an everyday starter until he improves his BA, but who takes his place? Bennett is much better than last year's backup catcher, Diaz, but I'll stick with Molina. I don't know enough about our other options in the minors, so I can't really compare them to Molina.

Some good arguments have been made in this thread, but I still don't think the numbers tell the whole story. Besides, his batting average has continually risen since the start of May and so it seems like we're complaining about a problem that's not much of a problem anymore.

by rob is back on Jun 27, 2006 9:41 PM EDT reply actions

yadi has stunk

but what's the alternative?

by lboros on Jun 28, 2006 12:32 PM EDT reply actions

that's the problem

there really isn't one short of seeing what Hernandez from AAA could do.

by azruavatar on Jun 28, 2006 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

There is no alternative currently

I was just wondering how long we wait for him to live up to his meager projections and what you all thought constituted enough offensive production to maintain him as the starter.

by bgh on Jun 28, 2006 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Bad Luck

There was an article in the Wall Street Journal a few days ago on luck. The article listed Yadi as one of the 3 unluckiest players in baseball this year. With average luck, his average when the article was published would have been .287. A small part of this discrepency between his real average and projected average is his slow speed. But that is only a small portion. The rest is indeed luck. Hitting the ball hard right at someone. That kind of thing. It is no coincidence that his average has risen over the last month - he is starting to get some of those breaks that were going against him all the time.

That said, I do think that Yadi is popping up too many pitches and not hitting with as much power as he is capable of. From watching his at bats, I see pitch selection as his biggest problem. Swings at too many pitches off the plate - usually right after taking a strike over the plate. I see him as very high potential as a hitter if he can just learn to see pitches better. Though some hitters never learn how to do that.

by locolawyer on Jun 29, 2006 8:06 PM EDT reply actions

I just don't by the luck thing in this case

Yadi is hitting .212 with little power. I just don't think that luck accounts for a 75 point difference in your avg. If someone said Yeadi should really be hitting .250, ok maybe then I can buy that but .287 - not for a second.

I think we attribute too much to luck without taking into account variables like it takes Yadi twice as long as the normal player to get to first. Not only that but where is the power??? Homeruns don't have bad luck and he hasn't been getting those.

I like Yadi and I think that he could be a major league hitter. But I'm not convinced of it. It is possible that he's just not hitting well...why does it have to be bad luck?

by azruavatar on Jun 30, 2006 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions

yadi's batted ball data

check out this page:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7007&position=C

in a sample of 100 balls in play off yadi's bat, we would expect 21 line drives, 43 grounders, 21 outfield flyballs, and 15 popups.

hardball times had a piece a year or two back that calculated league-wide batting avgs on certain type of batted balls --- it was something like .110 on outfield flies, virtually .000 on infield popups, .250 on grounders, and about .700 on line drives. since molina is so slow, he may lose 20 or 30 points on grounders --- let's call it .220 in his instance.

so in a 100 ball-in-play sample, he should get 0 hits on popups, 3 hits on outfield flies, 14 hits on line drives, and 10 hits on grounders -- 27 for 100, or .270.

but remember, that's not his overall batting avg; that's only when he puts it in play. when he strikes out, his avg is .000. factor in his whiffs (7.5 pct of his at-bats) and his "expected" average comes out to roughly .250. . . . just as azruavatar guessed.

but .250 from yadi, with his defense and at his salary, is ok by me.

by lboros on Jun 30, 2006 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions

If yadi could hit .250

with double-digit HRs and his defense, I'd be completely satisfied.

by azruavatar on Jun 30, 2006 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Why doesn't that sum correctly for me?

.270 - .075 = .195?

by rob is back on Jun 30, 2006 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

it's not a sum

it's a weighted average, or something.

in 100 at-bats, yadi will put the ball in play 92.5 times, and strike out 7.5 times.

of the 92.5 times he puts it in play, he'll get 25 hits, which gives us the .270 batting average we arrived at above.

and he'll get 0 hits for the 7.5 times he strikes out.

25 hits when ball in play +
0 hits when striking out =

25 hits in 100 total at-bats

or a .250 overall batting average

by lboros on Jun 30, 2006 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I got it now

I see you explained it in your first post and I just missed it.

Thanks!

by rob is back on Jun 30, 2006 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

It doesn't "have" to be luck

But that is what a detailed analysis shows. The WSJ article included a detailed analysis of exactly where each ball was hit, and what type of ball was hit - line drive, weak popup, etc. The conclusion was that Yadi should be hitting .286 (not .287, as indicated in my previous post). The article noted that the methodology did not take into account speed, but that would only account for a small difference in the numbers. Overall, the methodology was much more complex than just looking at percentages of fly balls, line drives, and ground balls and estimating a batting average from that.

The article was quite interesting. It noted that major league teams are now using this luck data to determine whether or not a player is really worth that trade among other things...

Oh, and a minor correction, the article states Yadi would be batting .286, not .287. For those who have a WSJ subscription, the article can be found here (or by searching , the article is called "Baseball Confronts the Luck Factor"): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115109391791589205
-search.html?KEYWORDS=luck+baseball&COLLECTION=
wsjie/6month#CX

Some interesting highlights that are in the online version that were not in the print version:

Yadi is the unluckiest hitter in baseball.
J-Rod is the 4th luckiest hitter, and his average would be .249 with average luck
Pujols is actually the MLB's 5th unluckiest hitter, and his average would be .362 with average luck.

Note: Bonds shows up second in bad luck, but the article says his stats are skewed because of the dramatic shifts that teams use against him - he's not really that unlucky.

by locolawyer on Jun 30, 2006 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

thanks for the links loco

their analysis is much more detailed than mine, but --- no offense to the WSJ, which i hold in high esteem --- i still trust my conclusion more than theirs. yadi ain't no .286 hitter.

if he is, his true ability should start rising to the surface --- ie, his luck will turn (as law of avgs says it should) and he'll hit .285 or thereabouts in the 2d half of this year.

i don't think he can do it. but i'll be fine with it if he proves me wrong

by lboros on Jun 30, 2006 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

No problem

My thoughts are that Yadi is a .265 to .270 hitter. His slow speed accounts for the rest of the difference from .286. I still believe that he has much room for improvement if his pitch selection improves. It seems that he is getting better (and luckier) as the season goes along - just like last year. I haven't looked at it in any real depth, but I would guess that his pitch selection steadily improves as the season goes along.

What do you think about Pujols being the 5th unluckiest hitter? I was just thinking the other day that despite the accolades, Pujols is actually having an off year average-wise. Of course, his power numbers are up, but it's not like Pujols is swinging for the fences more. Is anyone thinking that Pujols has possibly raised his power numbers without sacrificing any of his batting average, but that luck has simply kept his average down so far? If this is true, then Pujols may be on the verge of having a monster second half. Just some thoughts...

by locolawyer on Jun 30, 2006 3:08 PM EDT reply actions

again, i dunno

albert's flyball percentage is wayyyy up --- he's at 49 pct fly balls, up from his normal level of about 37 pct. his previous high in flyball rate was 41 pct.

as long as you're hitting those fly balls out of the park --- and more than 1/4 of albert's fly balls leave the yard, also a ridiculously high number --- it won't hurt you. but if his oblique has weakened him even a tad, he might be better served to stroke line drives than hit fly balls for a while.

i do think his batting average will go up, because he's at a historic low right now --- 7 points below his previous career worst. he may well hit .350ish in the 2d half.

by lboros on Jun 30, 2006 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions