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kick em upstairs

a 4-2 road trip with two series wins despite a) no pujols, and b) a one-man starting rotation? impressive. we all know what rolen's been doing, and we all saw what chris duncan did yesterday. who else has been picking up slack?

  • encarnacion: batting .405 (17 for 42) with 10 rbi since albert went down.
  • the catchers: molina and bennett are batting a combined .333 (11 for 33) since the injury, and molina has hit 2 homers (his 1st pair of the year).
  • taguchi: hitting only .265, but -- batting primarily 2d -- has acquired patience and drawn 6 walks, giving him a .375 obp since the injury. he's scored 9 runs in that span, 2d on the team.
  • luna: was hitting before, still hitting now; .303 avg in the last 10 games.
  • edmonds: rediscovered a semblance of his power stroke; 4 xbh in 10 games, after only 2 xbh in the preceding month.
a little love for juan'cion, please? i don't like him any more than you do -- guess i have this prejudice against players with sub-.300 obps -- but here at the outset of the pujols crisis he has elevated his game very admirably. if you're at the game tonight, a little applause would be in order when he steps into the box for his 1st at-bat. . . . after he pops out to 2b you can still boo him if you want to.

all the numbers above, by the way, courtesy pinto's day-by-day database.

there's a great read at wsj.com this morning. sam walker, the author of Fantasyland, sat in with the cardinals' selection team during the amateur draft last week and recorded some amusing impressions. sounds like these guys -- scouts and front-office types alike -- have a lot of "fan" in 'em, and may rely more heavily on intuition and gut appeal than they'd like to let on. here's walker's description of what scout kobe perez had to say after the cards followed his recommendation and chose adam ottavino in the 1st round:

The first time he saw the kid pitch, Mr. Perez told us, it was during an exhibition between Northeastern and the Boston Red Sox. When it was his turn, Mr. Ottavino showed no signs of intimidation. He pitched right at the major-league hitters, striking out the first two and breaking the third guy's bat. At this, Mr. Perez smiles. "I fell in love with the guy right there."
not a long read, but a very nice short sketch of the card decision-makers at work. and play.

since we're talking about prospects, this would be the time to report on jaime garcia, the left-handed starter who's having a breakout spring in low-a ball. he threw a 7-inning "complete game" yesterday in the 2d game of a doubleheader -- 6 hits, a run, no walks and 5 ks, picked up a 2-1 victory. he's now 5-4 on the year with a 2.90 era and an 80-18 strikeout-walk ratio. should the cards start ottavino at quad cities -- and low-a ball is where the cards started their last 1st-round college hurler, chris lambert -- they can easily clear a slot for him by promoting garcia to high-a ball.

this is the time of year for such decisions. the new draftees are getting ready to go -- rookie leagues and short-season a leagues start play in less than a week -- and the 1st-half races in higher classifications are winding down. who else may be on the move? let's just stay with the pitchers.

at least one palm beach pitcher appears ready to advance -- blake hawksworth. he has now thrown more than 200 innings at various levels of a ball; his arm's healthy again, and he is among the league leaders in wins (T-4th), era (8th), and whip (10th). he has nothing more to gain at that level; time to move him up and see how he does against tougher competition. a second possible candidate to move up from palm beach is eric haberer, 3d rounder from two years ago. he got off to a slow start this spring but has come on strong -- 3 walks, 21 ks, and a 1.29 era in his last three starts, including eight strong innings yesterday in what became a marathon win for palm beach. he has now made 30 starts in high a ball and gone 12-11 with a 3.69 era and 1.35 whip in 176 innings. peripherals are only so-so -- about 9.0 hits per 9, 5.6 k/9, a k/w ratio just below 2:1. is he ready to face double a hitters? it's a judgment call, but two or three more good starts would solidify his case.

to clear space at double a for one or both of those pitchers, the organization's first option might be to release rich rundles, a spaceholder signed in the off-season as a minor-league free agent. as a second option, they could consider promoting a starter to memphis. chris lambert and mike parisi both need more time at double a, but stu pomeranz might be ready to climb up a rung. he has now spent a full season at double a -- moved up in the middle of 2005 -- and has logged 31 starts and 177 innings at that level. the overall numbers aren't good, because he got pounded last year, but he has shown marked improvement this season; he is 14th in the texas league in both era and whip, 2d in wins, 7th in innings pitched; he does pitch in a pronounced hitter's park, which distorts his numbers somewhat. he probably needs to get off to a good start in the 2d half before he earns a promotion.

if they move him up, challenge him, then who gets bumped from the triple a rotation? well, there's one guy (cough) who could get the call to st louis, freeing up a slot . . . . failing that, the organization could get rid of john webb, another spaceholder who signed as a minor-league f.a. and is stinking it up with a 4.77 era and 1.61 whip.

so this could happen in two movements: first, hawksworth to springfield and garcia to palm beach as soon as the 1st-half races end (that happens this weekend, i think), with ottavino starting out at quad cities once he signs. second, whenever reyes gets the call to st louis, then pomeranz replaces him at memphis and haberer advances to springfield.

we all good wi that? hah. come back in a week, it'll all look different. . . .

if you just can't get enough of this farm-system talk, head over to danup's for a look at the palm beach hitters. . . . . .

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I hope they advance some of the pitching like you
suggest.  Got to keep developing pitchers!  I haven't dug deeply into the hitters stats but there have to be some that can move up as well.  I would imagine that with the signings from the draft as you suggested some will move up to make room.  

BTW has the Spivey experiment ended yet?  And when can we get rid of Timo?  I hurt just knowing he is on our major league roster.

by azruavatar on Jun 16, 2006 9:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Seems like AAA
is full of nothing other than Reyes.  I know that typically a lot of good prospects jump directly from AA to the bigs, but doesn't it seem like the Cards AAA is particularly thin?  Maybe I'm missing something.  I'm thinking of other organizations that have their top prospects at AAA.  I guess this is just an indication of how thin the Cardinals system is.  If that is the case though, I don't see why some of these guys don't get moved up a bit faster.  
OC Cards Fan

by OCCardsFan on Jun 16, 2006 11:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

to triple
there are a number of position players now who will be ready for, and time in, AAA next season. it all moves in waves, right now there's no hitters of note in memphis (except for Spivey, ha). Travis Hanson is a classic young guy ready for AAA, although he's not doing so hot this season.

by VanRam on Jun 16, 2006 11:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

and it's too soon
to give up on hanson. he hit .167 in april but .291 in may; perhaps he just needed some time to adjust. he may yet prove to be a decent bench player or platoon guy at 2b. john nelson (ss) also had a strong may after a terrible opening month -- he hit .280ish in may with 8 home runs. but his strikeout rate is awful, and he never walks . . . .

there's also michel hernandez at triple A, who is currently on the dl but has played well this year; prob'y should be the backup in st louis.

by lboros on Jun 16, 2006 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Michel Hernandez
He's better than Bennett, sure, but his offense had been in a nosedive leading up to going on the DL.

FWIW, he has a Molina-esque gun -- you don't run much on him.

by whopperman on Jun 16, 2006 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LaRussa's Comments
"What you pledge to the team when you come into spring training is - starting with the opening-day roster - to the end of the season you (have) the best 25 (players)," La Russa said when asked about Reyes. "At the same time, you're always evaluating your best 25. If at some point we evaluate that he's one of the best five starters, then he's going to be here. It's a good question because it's something we evaluate - don't know if it's daily - but it's frequently."

Note to TLR:

Please, Please evaluate. Soon.

Check out his numbers in Triple A -- 62 Ks, eight walks, 65 innings.

by Schnake on Jun 16, 2006 12:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps reading too much into this
Do you think this quote is meant to light fires under our poorly performing rotation? Essentially saying that if they don't improve their pitching, Reyes will take their spot?

Or is it simply him keeping his options open and dancing around the question, not committing one way or the other?

by bgh on Jun 16, 2006 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

starting 5
last three starts:

Mark Mulder (1-1) 14.2 IP, 15 ER, 7 BB, 10 K = 9.20 ERA
Jason Marquis (2-0) 18.0 IP, 8 ER, 12 BB, 9 K = 4.00 ERA
Chris Carpenter (2-1) 18.0 IP, 9 ER, 8 BB, 26 K = 4.50 ERA
Jeff Suppan (0-0) 16.0 IP, 11 ER, 9 BB, 8 K = 6.19 ERA
Sydney Ponson (0-2) 14.2 IP, 13 ER, 6 BB, 7 K = 7.98 ERA

These are not very good numbers for 15 starts. Isn't 5-4 an really, really good record considering their combined ERA is 6.16?

by Schnake on Jun 16, 2006 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Carpenter has more Ks
than Marquis, Suppan and Ponson put toghether.

In fact, Carpenter had more Ks in that Pittsburg game than our other 4 starters had in thier last 3 starts!

-sigh- I wish I didn't love Ks, now I'm a little depressed.

by Schnake on Jun 16, 2006 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do not let your heart be troubled
The reason this is true, is because Carp is the only strike out pitcher we have right now. The other guys stuff is designed for contact, specifically ground ball pitchers. Even when these guys are on, they aren't going to get you a lot of K's. Besides I'd sacrifice some of Carpenter's K's for a lower ERA. K's are overrated, they eat up pitch counts.
Never since the days of shoeless Joe Jackson have I ever seen such a great shoeless athlete...

by robdouth on Jun 16, 2006 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ks are overrated
They're also fascist.

by 26thMan on Jun 16, 2006 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only way you lower
an ERA is not to let runners on base.Aviod hits you lessen the amount of runners who can score.So k's pitcher is really important because if you pitch to contact and no one's out you need a K here and there to keep said era low.To avoid blown up innings and to keep pitch count down.You think Izzy likes making 25 pitches in one inning well thats what happens when you pitch to cintact you put yourself in position for the defense to faulter unless you have an all-star at every postion even then hits get through.We need 1 more k' pitcher to compliment Carp the same way we neeeded 1 for Morris back in 00,01,02.

by sportsmanspark78 on Jun 16, 2006 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

K/BB and K's like that are different.
I get you're point, but it always made sense before when we had gold glovers on the left side of the infield and were the top fielding team every year. Yeah a K guy is great, but pitching to contact and getting that huge double play ball is also solid. I understand that without the K's there is more pressure on the defense, but what the hell are they out there with their mitts for? If you feel like you have to get a K because you're afraid to put pressure on your defense, you're in serious shit.
Never since the days of shoeless Joe Jackson have I ever seen such a great shoeless athlete...

by robdouth on Jun 16, 2006 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

k/bb
the low k totals would be acceptable if they had better k/bb ratios.  marquis, soup, and ponson are near the bottom of the league in k/bb ratio.  marquis actually has more walks than strikeouts.  you cant survive like that even if you are a pitch to contact type.

i dont know that i would say strikeouts eat up pitch counts.  for some pitchers that specifically intend on striking out people that is true (many young pitchers), but guys like carp always seem to have manageable pitch counts at the end of the day.

by dmb60614 on Jun 16, 2006 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'm with you on k/bb
but it's very hard to have a good k/bb unless you k a reasonably number of guys. by "reasonable," i mean at least 5 to 6 per 9 innings. if you only strike out 4.5 men per 9 --- and supps marquis and ponson are all at or below that standard --- that means you have to have extremely low walk rates (2.0 walks per 9 or lower) to post a decent k/bb. in most seasons, there are only 3 or 4 starting pitchers who walk as few as 2.0 men per 9.

by lboros on Jun 16, 2006 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Contact
Pitching to contact is a joke.  The reason that pitch counts for carpenter are reasonable is that someone who has the stuff to create a lot of "swings and misses" also has the ability to create a lot of "swings and not hit the ball square".  Both of these typically equal lots of outs.

by BigJawnMize on Jun 16, 2006 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think
Greg Maddux would disagree with you. Granted all the love goes to guys like Clemens, Schilling, Pedro, Randy Johnson, and Santana, but not everyone has that kind of stuff. Pitching to contact may be a joke compared to those guys, but even they can't keep the K's coming their entire career. Look at the dropoff in Johnson's game, and it's taking him awhile to learn to keep the ball down since he can't blow people away. Once you lose some giddy-up on the ball, you have to be a spot-hitter and a nibbler. But as they said with the K/BB ratio, it's hard to keep it looking good if you don't K many guys. But look at Brandon Webb. respectable K totals, but a total pitch to contact guy who is a front runner for Cy Young right now. If you pitch to contact effectively it's much harder to hit than a K guy. Yeah the K guy will make you whiff, but his mistakes get hit hard, and if he starts to lose velocity at the end of the game, he's gonna get rocked. A guy like Webb can go late in the game and keep hitting those spots at the bottom of the zone and make it a game of grounders. I actually prefer building a decent defense around a guy like B-Webb than having to hope for a K guy to bring his A game everyday.
Never since the days of shoeless Joe Jackson have I ever seen such a great shoeless athlete...

by robdouth on Jun 16, 2006 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Though,
the dropoff in Randy Johnson's game happened when he was 43, so it's not like pitching for strikeouts really hurt his longevity. Even guys like Maddux had above-average strikeout rates, and in addition Maddux had ridiculous walk and home run rates in his prime.

by DanUpBaby on Jun 16, 2006 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes, maddux
is commonly cited in this regard, but he ranks 13th on the all-time strikeout list . . . he finished in the top 5 in his league in strikeouts 6 times, and in his prime he used to fan 7 men per 9 innings. was top 10 in the nl in strikeouts per 9 on three occasions.

not really a pitch-to-contact pitcher.

by lboros on Jun 16, 2006 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe he would disagree...
...but Maddux is not a data point in your favor.  He's pretty much struck out 5-6 per 9 innings most of his career.  He may not throw that hard, but he's always struck people out -- usually 170-200 a year up until the last 4 or so.

by whopperman on Jun 16, 2006 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Suppan as a prom date
Thought that would get your attention!

Comparing each of the rotation members to a prom date:

Suppan is Aunt Janice, always available, still fairly young and pretty, and fairly cool. But you feel weird every time you're around her and you're guaranteed not to get any play. A fun date, but no chance at anything significant.

Ponson is Phyllis, a big girl who is the top of the scrap heap. She might be fun to hang around with, but you hope that no one sees you with her.

Mulder is Angela Hayes from "American Beauty" (played by Mena Suvari). She looks really good and fits the role in your fantasies rather nicely, but in the end, she's just a big tease.

Reyes is Sophie, the new girl with the Lisa Loeb cat glasses. A little weird, but tons of fun and somebody you could spend a long time with.

Marquis is bi-polar Betty. A pretty girl that would be the envy of your friends, but you have no idea which personality will show up on the big night.

Carpenter is, of course, the sure thing, the pick of the litter. Intelligent, witty, gorgeous, experienced: everybody lusts after her, but she is yours for the night.

by Solanus on Jun 16, 2006 12:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ha
Classic post. Dead on. Very funny.

I hate VH1 and Reality TV but I admit, I like the No. 1 single show with Lisa Loeb. What American male ISN'T in love with her??

Those idiots on that show keep screwing it up. She's cute, real, original, witty, and down to earth for a celeb. And the glasses are great.

Ok, maybe its just me.

to give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.

by beanocook on Jun 16, 2006 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i was always a sucker
for the jason marquis type, always ended up disappointed . . . . ended up marrying reyes.

hey -- i think you've just gotten to the root of my opinions about the cardinal pitchers

by lboros on Jun 16, 2006 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey...
I married Reyes, too!

by 26thMan on Jun 16, 2006 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're not the only one
And is that show still going?  I haven't seen it on in a while.

As for me, my attention is often stolen by the Carpenter types and the occasional Mulder, but deep down I know I'm just waiting for the right Reyes to come along.

These posts would sound really odd taken out of context btw.

by john vb on Jun 16, 2006 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no doubt
i think you all might be a little gay really.It's funny though.

by sportsmanspark78 on Jun 16, 2006 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Loeb
I saw that show and was amazed at how hot she looked. I don't remember ever thinking that when I used to see her videos...

Of course, I also kind of have a thing for Martha Stewart...please don't ask me to explain it, because I can't...

It's not a good thing...

Greetings Pagans! Don't forget your goat leggings!

by iron duke75 on Jun 16, 2006 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No worries, Duke
Martha looks pretty good for an old broad, IMO.

by 26thMan on Jun 16, 2006 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I always thought Martha Stewart
was fairly attractive when she was younger, but she didn't age well.

by rob is back on Jun 16, 2006 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thank God
it isn't just me.

I thought I was alone in the world on that one.

;-)

Greetings Pagans! Don't forget your goat leggings!

by iron duke75 on Jun 16, 2006 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's the cooking and cleaning thing
She may not have aged well but I'm sure her souffle kicks every other 20 something woman's ass.

by azruavatar on Jun 16, 2006 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just waiting for
someone to ask me, "So, you've been having fantasies about Mark Mulder in a cheerleader outfit, hmm?"

by Solanus on Jun 16, 2006 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everything I ever needed to know
about baseball, I learned in high school.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 16, 2006 1:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I always lusted after
the Carpenter and Reyes types, but usually ended up with Ponsons...

by cardsrul on Jun 16, 2006 1:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

unofficial hombre update
From Bernie on his P-D forum:

The team is taking a no-talk approach, because they don't want to raise expectations or say something that will cause criticism of them later.

But ...

Albert is doing very well. Feeling great. All indications are that he's ahead of schedule. I am told it's quite possible he'll go with the team on the next road trip -- though that doesn't mean he'll play. But going on the trip means he'd be doing some baseball activity.... and that's a positive sign.

The timetable of 4 to 6 weeks?

Much closer to 4 weeks than 6.

--B

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Jun 16, 2006 3:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sounds good...
But I say wait until El Hombre thinks he's ready to go and then add a week. The last thing we need is him re-injuring himself or having reduced power for the rest of the year.

by mikedallas23 on Jun 16, 2006 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Update from Bernie...
I arrived at Busch about 3:20...
Pujols has been on the field for 30 minutes.
Taking ground balls at first base, working with Chris Duncan on footwork around the bag.

Pujols is making some light throws. He's also having no problems stretching (low) and extending to receive throws.

Thought you'd want to know.

Obviously The Mang is making progress.

The buzz.... possible return next week.

--B

by cardsrul on Jun 16, 2006 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The (cough) one guy...
...starts in Memphis tonight.  I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch again.  Jose Bautista will have the privilege of facing the awe-inspiring Memphis lineup.

And as someone who goes to a ton of games in Memphis, let me assure you that the team is indeed as bad as it looks.  No hitters of note other than Daubach -- Gall isn't even hitting.  They did pick up Derek Wathan, which is helping some, but they're just awful overall.

They are hitting .239 as a team, in the PCL -- next-worst is .251.  They have a 675 team OPS, next-worst is 701.  They've scored 20 runs less than the next-worst offense, they're the only team in the league with less than a hundred doubles.

Spivey looks like he's trying to get himself cut.  There's ZERO effort from him out there.  I've always said I don't care if a guy has a big ego, if he earns the ego.  He has the ego, but he's hitting 159/333/234, and I can assure you that it's not bad luck.

The pitching is getting better, but it still doesn't look like it's pitchers that will help in St. Louis -- Travis Smith and Chris Narveson have looked reasonably good since joining the team, and Tankersley has given them a chance to win lately.  But this has to be one of the worst-hitting teams in recent memory in the PCL.

All that said, I agree with your list of moves, lboros.  Keep up the good work with your blog, it's a daily read for me.

by whopperman on Jun 16, 2006 3:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks whopperman
for reading, and for weighing in. since you see these guys a lot, what are your impressions of travis hanson? i realize he's very unlikely to become an everyday player for the cards, but does he look like somebody who could eventually stick as a backup? what about michel hernandez, the catcher --- think he could back up molina adequately?

i also am curious to hear your opinions of relievers josh kinney and andy cavazos, who both look promising numbers-wise . . . .

by lboros on Jun 16, 2006 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hanson
Right now, I don't really see it with Hanson.  He makes too many errors -- he made a BAD one that cost two runs Monday night...completely whiffed on a throw from center that went right over the bag at third (on a bases loaded sac fly).  He's not hitting that well.

I haven't really been able to watch Cavazos or Kinney a ton this year.  Kinney has a fairly deceptive delivery and hides the ball pretty well.

Haven't noticed much on Cavazos, but I'll try to watch him closer.  I'm not always at an angle to get a good look at the pitchers, and the "radar gun" is little more than a random number generator this year, so I have no idea how hard either of them throw...I've seen 90 once all year, from Edinson Volquez last night.

Hernandez couldn't be too much worse than Bennett, but I don't know that he'd be much of an improvement.  I'm not sold on his hitting being more than a fluke, though he does have a very, very good arm.

by whopperman on Jun 16, 2006 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

PPE
Has anyone noticed that in the PPE, we're scoring half a run MORE per the sidebar?

by STLEdge on Jun 16, 2006 4:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That 's with black holes at
LF and C with limited power from everywhere except Rolen. Imagine what we could score if a) Jim Edmonds continues his recent successes b) Yadi decides he can continue to hit above .250 c) Juan learns to walk and d) Pujols comes back.

That isn't mentioning something like an obvious upgrade in LF like Wilson.  Hell, leaving JRod out there would be an upgrade despite is sometimes subpar defense.  The pieces are there for this to be a good offensive team and the more I think about it, the addition of some power ala Craig Wilson would really help as well.  The pitching on the other hand...well, maybe Pujols learned to throw a knuckle-curve while on the DL.

by azruavatar on Jun 16, 2006 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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