Torii and Alfonso

by Titus Pullo on Jun 1, 2006 6:35 AM EDT Comment 25 comments

I noticed that Torii Hunter is beating Soriano in the straw poll on this blog. It left me scratching my head. Let's look at the facts:

Torii Hunter
2006 Season
AVG .269 | HR 9 | RBI 34 | OBP .330 | SLG .447

Career
AVG .267 OBP .321 SLG .458 HR 142
Salary
10.75 mil

Alfonso Soriano
2006 Season
AVG .297 | HR 19 | RBI 38 | OBP .347 | SLG .603

Career
AVG .281 OBP .322 SLG .507 HR 181
Salary
$10 mil

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but there is no respect, none, zip, nada, with which Soriano is not demonstrably superior to Hunter. Hunter even costs more and produces less.

Oh, and just to beat this dead horse:

Stolen bases
Hunter: 4 Soriano: 12

So what's the deal? Is the Hunter preference due to lingering resentment against Soriano for his tantrum about being moved to the outfield? Lingering resentment for wearing the pin stripes?

Other than Miguel Cabrera, I dont' see many players who are clearly better than Soriano. And Soriano is more likely to actually be traded than Cabrera and a lot of other players discussed on this site.

Just my two cents.

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I agree but the caveat to some of those

career figures is the Houston Ballpark which is a severe hitters park. Alfonso seems to be having a real heyday in RFK though so who knows...

Hunter's D is probably the only thing he adds and that should have some weight but I agree with your overall point that Soriano is probably the superior player.

by azruavatar on Jun 1, 2006 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought Arlington and typed Houston

sometimes I'm slightly brain damaged

by azruavatar on Jun 3, 2006 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano is clearly

a level (or two) above Hunter as a power hitter. And as someone who was a Soriano skeptic, but who watches the Nationals everyday, I have to agree that, for all his faults, Soriano is an impact player both as a hitter and on the bases. Hunter would make the Cardinals slightly better. Soriano would make them a lot better.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 1, 2006 8:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

defense

my guess is the people who are voting for hunter are thinking about his D. i haven't seen any stats, but it could be the case that hunter's superior glove offsets soriano's superior bat.

by lboros on Jun 1, 2006 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

OK, what does your

gut tell you? Mine tells me Soriano's bat in the 5 or 6 slot is going to give opponents a hell of a lot more heartburn than knowing there's a good glove in CF.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 1, 2006 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

torii's d

while i am a little hesitant on soriano's defense, what about that freak injury last year to hunter's leg? i think he broke he shin, and that will slow you down alot. his defense may not be as good as we all think. back in march when we were discussing soriano, i absolutely did not want any of him near our club, but now he has proven me wrong. he is hitting very well in a pitcher's park, and is getting on base at a relatively decent clip. i'd think that if he doesn't take as much over abreu, i'd maybe pull the trigger on the deal.

Albert Pujols is god with a lowercase "g". Let's go Redbirds, World Series '06 here we come!

by stlsportsfan on Jun 1, 2006 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

soriano vrs hunter

I doubt it will, but if it came down to a choice between just these two, I'd take Soriano.

The defensive value difference between them is probably large (maybe huge), but....

If, as seems likely, teams start to walk Pujols more frequently, we could really use a productive bat in the 5 spot. That spot is going to see a lot of great RBI chances with Rolen and Pujols on base all the time. I'm personally not ready to give up on JuanE yet but his approach at the plate in key spots is nauseating.

Plus, I think Soriano's speed would be really handy around that spot of the order, when you start to want to manufacture runs again.

One other thing is that if Edmonds comes back at any time before the season, what use would Hunter be to us? I guess the answer is still "Some" but most of his value relative to our other options would be his great defense, and we'd have to play him out of position.

by isaac on Jun 1, 2006 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Edmonds is part of the reason I chose Hunter

He's obviously not the best choice for his offense, but he's not exactly bad offensively either. What I like about Hunter is his potential to take over for Edmonds next season should Edmonds' option not get picked up. One problem with this idea is that Hunter is in the last year of his deal, like Edmonds, and his option for 2007 is $2 million more than Edmonds, but that may be irrelevant if Edmonds is unable to return healthy enough to be of any real worth to the team. Hunter is also younger than Edmonds, so that's in his favor too.

Still his option for 2007 is $12 million and I believe that's based on one good year, which he's never been able to duplicate since and that brings up a possible key to this deal. Hunter has supposedly wanted out of Minnesota for some time so he can play on a winning team. I think there may be a possibility that Hunter would want to play for the Cardinals enough that he'd give them a discount, which could be worth a lot beyond 2007. Another reason that I think he may want to play in St. Louis is because he grew up in Arkansas, which means there's a decent chance that he grew up a Cardinals fan.

Anyway, I'm just speculating here and I'm probably "way off base", but I'd prefer that we find someone who can fill Edmond's shoes adequately in CF when he departs and there don't seem to be that many choice centerfielders out there.

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

two problems here

like you stated, Hunter hasn't duplicated a great season, and why do we keep talking about Soriano batting 5th. Does anyone actually believe that with Soriano's speed and OBP, that he wouldn't be batting 2nd if he were wearing a Cards uniform? 5th? are you joking? Why not put a speedy guy with pop in front of Pujols because then not only does Soriano see GREAT pitching as the pitcher wets himself thinking about Pujols, but the possibility of having men on in scoring position for Pujols is much greater. I know with Soriano's propensity to hit doubles and steal bases, Pujols could see a lot of walks, but how is that any different from now, and if Soriano is batting after Rolen, then many people will still walk Pujols with 1 or 2 outs and hope for the double play with Rolen. They aren't going to be able to avoid Soriano if he's batting second, but if Rolen or Soriano were leading off an inning and Soriano is in the 5th spot, he's walked to get to other guys, even with his speed on the bases, thus we could see a lot of situations where Pujols is walked, Rolen would get the pitcher out of an inning (would happen sometimes, although I know Rolen can deliver also) and Soriano leading off the next inning only to be walked and stranded on third as the bottom of the order leaves him there.

Never since the days of shoeless Joe Jackson have I ever seen such a great shoeless athlete...

by robdouth on Jun 1, 2006 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I completely agree with you on Soriano

I wouldn't want him batting anywhere else but 2nd, because he has a low GIDP and a low BA w/ RISP, but a decent BA with the bases empty and leading off. He's ideal for the two-hole imo.

As for Hunter, it's not like his numbers would be an embarrassment to the team, but I wouldn't even consider him except that he could nicely fill a crucial role for the future in CF. It also wouldn't surprise me a bit if his numbers improved as a Cardinal, if he were happy playing for St. Louis.

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lineup fun

These batting order discussions can be a little silly, especially when the player in question is not likely to ever be on your team. But I can't resist, and since this is all for fun anyway:

Speed is a big part of his game. Batting second drastically reduces the value of that asset. Batting 5th maximizes it.

Imagine this happening 20 times in three months:
Soriano singles, steals seconds, opposing manager thinks for approximately 1 nanosecond before holding up four fingers. Plus theres the times getting thrown out, taking away RBI chances. If you're on first base when Albert is up, you are already in scoring position. That's why I personally never really want to see Eckstein attempt a straight steal again. Or almost never.

If you believe, as I do,that much of the value of base stealing is the pressure it puts on the defense, Soriano should bat 5th. From the 2 spot, pitchers will practically beg him to steal, and Soriano on second lets them off the hook. You've just decreased the pressure on the opposition. From the 5th spot in the lineup, he'll have fewer chances to steal but almost all of them will increase the pressure on the other team, because you're now in the mostly singles-hitting section of the lineup where an extra base makes the largest difference.

The Cardinals have had a real top-heavy lineup for a long time now. Soriano in the 5 spot could increase the fear factor of both parts. He could do lots of damage (remember all those RBI's from Rolen 2 years ago?) and also make the bottom of the order a little more tricky.

Now, where should we bat Abreau? :)

by isaac on Jun 1, 2006 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

First off, I'd have to put Abreu 2nd with his incredible OBP and his power to bring in Eck and Miles before Pujols even sees a chance.

I agree with you that speed places great pressure on defense, but I'm still not convinced that Soriano would be better suited batting 5th. I think you're right that 5th would be a better use of his speed, but if I'm a pitcher, I'm not so sure that I want to be thinking about a speedster on base while facing Pujols: I would want anything distracting me from striking out Pujols or making me nervous while facing Pujols. Even more important, his speed would probably be more valueable in close games where he might get himself into scoring position for Pujols and Rolen.

The other reason I don't like him in the 5th slot is because his RISP BA isn't that great (.250 this year and that's right around his lifetime average.) I suppose that's not too important in the 5-hole, but I believe that Lboro's was saying just the other day that JuanE has had more at-bats with runners in scoring position then anyone else on the team and he's batted 5th more than anywhere else.

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is the positional thinking on this?

Are we replacing a CF or acquiring a power hitting LF (another need)?

If we want an outfield bat, obvious Soriano is the better choice. If Juan/So/Bigbie/et al prove to be adequate defensively in CF, this is probably the route to go. If they don't, then what do you do?

Wouldn't a trade that involved our shipping out Juanny Encarnacion for a power OF bat be wonderfully ideal? Something like a Marquis/Encarnacion package for a power bat and a lefty for the 'pen. I know it will never happen but a man can dream...

by bgh on Jun 1, 2006 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My view on positional thinking

is that we'd be filling two holes with Hunter by upgrading our batting lineup now and by having a proven replacement for Edmonds later, which may be sooner if his diagnosis is bad. Taguchi's 37 years old, so he probably won't be around too much longer, and while I think JuanE is better in RF than many give him credit for being, I do not like the idea of him in CF. I haven't seen enough of Bigbie or Soriano, this year, to make an assessment and so I won't comment on them.

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jimmy E is not easily replaced

good point, it may not be feasible to replace Edmonds with another superior centerfielder. I know that CF is important and the defense can make or break a few games, but the offensive production has to outweigh any advantages at Center from Hunter. Defense hasn't been the problem with this team, hitting has (with the exception of Ex, Albert, and Rolen)

Never since the days of shoeless Joe Jackson have I ever seen such a great shoeless athlete...

by robdouth on Jun 1, 2006 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why not...

why would soriano be forced to play the outfield in st louis?

soriano could play second base, use spiezo/j-rod/luna in left, taguchi/encarnacion/schumacher in CF, and bigbie/luna/encarnacion in RF, whatever the matchups dictate...

i would like to see luna/rodriguez/bigbie get more playing time and see what they can do before trading for anyone, tho..

by 2ndprize on Jun 1, 2006 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

it would be a mistake to put soriano at 2b for the cards because Duncan stresses groundball pitching so much (though a lot of our pitchers arent doing that as well this year I think), so having a solid infield is important. and I haven't looked at the stats, but Im pretty sure soriano has been the worst 2b in the league the past few years.

by PGeorge on Jun 1, 2006 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Knowing Tony,

I have a feeling the guy would be rotated in and out of 2b over the course of the season if he were acquired.

by Valatan on Jun 6, 2006 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DEFENSE

Torii Hunter does not have the offensive ability of Sorino, period. But he is arguably the best centerfielder in baseball, right up there with Andruw and Jimmy. His batting is adequate, even very good, but let's remember that the Cardinals probably wouldn't have even gotten the chance to get run over by the Red Sox had Edmonds not made the sensational catch to rob Ausmus in game 7 of the NLCS that year. Defense. In the postseason it's all about productive at bats. See Yankees, New York, 1996-2000. Before they became the free-agent video game team, they were a team that was not an offensive juggernaut, they wond with great pitching and guys who played fundamental ball and performed when it counted a la Scott Brosious. So while we're all stat-crazy around here, let's remember the importance of having good baseball players (beyond the boxscore), above all else.

by mdarshan on Jun 1, 2006 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

At the same time though

you could argue that the Cardinals wouldn't have gone to the WS if Edmonds hadn't been good enough to hit a walk-off homerun in game 6 of that NLCS just as well. But I'm with you, because I consider defense -- especially in the playoffs -- to be more important then some seem to think it is and CF isn't somewhere I want to skimp on defense.

If all that great offensive power, that we supposedly had in 2004, had shown up for the playoffs, I think we'd probably had won. I mean if we can't win a WS with Renteria, Walker, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, and Sanders filling the first six spots of the batting order, then there must be something else wrong. Pitching was obviously the biggest part of that something else and I'd hate to think how we'd have fared if we didn't have a very good defense behind our pitchers.

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It may sound like

a cheap rationalization, but it's what I really think: By the time the '04 Red Sox got to the WS, there wasn't a team on the planet that could have beaten them. Our Birds at their best would have made a series of it, but no way that Sox team was going to lose after what they did to the Yankoffs that year.

The only thing about it that really upsets me is the WAY we lost, not that we did.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 1, 2006 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually I agree with you

I don't really know why I wrote that other than to express that I think we would have played much better if our bats had shown up. I still think the Cardinals were the better team, but like you said, the Red Sox had all the momentum and I considered them the second best team behind the Cardinals all along (although I began to wonder if that didn't belong to the Astros after their miraculous end of the season performance. In fact, I'm not so sure that the Astros weren't the best team in '04, despite losing to us in game 7 of the NCLS in St. Louis.)

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I won't go so far

as to agree about the '04 Astros, but we've had two karma-shattering WS in a row now ... 2 teams destroying decades-old demons, and unfortunately a couple of good NL Central teams ended up being the fall guys. Hopefully the WS this year will lack such cosmic significance.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 2, 2006 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Be careful what you wish for.....

I got to watch Soriano here in DFW the last few years. Some observations:

Known as a great clubhouse guy
Hits for power, though not necessarily in the clutch
Can steal a base

On the other hand......

Adamant about not leaving 2b for the outfield
Never walks
Shaky D at 2b, let alone LF
Free swinging ways will drive TLR crazy, just like he did Buck
Benefited from hitting in the Ballpark in Arlington, though his numbers in Wash are just as good

Count me as neutral on a deal for Sori. The bat would look good in the lineup, but his clutch hitting is in question. The glove is shaky anyway you cut it. The tipping point may be that his teammates loved him here. He'd sure bring a scary bat to 2nd or 5th in the lineup for the Cardinals. Just prepare to be disappointed from time to time.

by stltxfan on Jun 3, 2006 9:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The "scary bat"

outweighs a hell of a lot of other things as far as I'm concerned. And re disappointment, well, I was disappointed that Rolen let that ball get by him last night and disappointed that Pujols struck out 3 times. It's the daily disappointment of JuanE that we have to overcome.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jun 3, 2006 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs