Should Molina bat 5th?

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 12:45 AM EDT Comment 8 comments

This may sound crazy, but give me a chance first and then let me know how crazy it is.

I'm not as critical of JuanE as many of you, but as the 5th batter with JEd out, JuanE's batting average with RISP is alarming to me. Take a look for yourself:

Bases Empty .265 in 98 AB
Runners On .230 in 57 AB
RISP .196 in 51 AB
RISP w/2 Outs .190 in 21 AB
Bases Loaded .167 in 6 AB

Now these numbers are well below his career averages (his career RISP is .263 and a surprising .337 with the bases loaded), so they should be expected to rise. In fact, his numbers for last year were quite impressive:

Bases Empty .240
Runners On .332
RISP .331
RISP w/2 Outs .333
Bases Loaded .500

But the other day there was talk about Molina's surprising batting average with RISP:

Bases Empty .095 in 84 AB
Runners On .296 in 54 AB
RISP .303 in 33 AB
RISP w/2 Outs .316 in 19 AB
Bases Loaded .500 in 4 AB

Now I don't know what JuanE's isolated numbers are for only the period since he's been hitting better and that might change my mind. But I can't help wondering if we might be better off by having Molina and JuanE trade places -- atleast until we begin seeing significant improvement in JuanE's numbers -- because JuanE seems to be leaving too many men on base (is there a place to find player LOB or LOB AVG for the season?) Using today's lineup as a starting point, here's what I propose:

Eckstein
Rodriguez or Spiezio
Pujols
Rolen
Molina
Taguchi, Bigbie, Luna or Spiezio
Encarnacion
Miles
SP

Switching the batters in the 5th and 6th position might make even more sense, considering Taguchi's reliability with the bases loaded and his better average with the bases empty.

So what do you guys think? Like I said, I might change my mind if JuanE's RISP has greatly improved since he's been hitting better (he left 6 on base today and 0 RBI's for what it's worth), but I sort of like the idea until that happens. If nothing else, looking up this information reminded me of one of the reasons WJ was probably excited about JuanE (i.e. last year's impressive averages with men on base) and that gives me something to look forward to in the future.

Update: After thinking about this some more, I realized that Luna's RISP is .391 and Spiezio's is .370, so it would probably be better to drop Molina to 6th and bat Speizio, Luna or Taguchi 5th.

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i like it.

funny, i was thinking the exact same thing today, while observing JuanE's work or lack of, at the plate; frustrating. With Molina's 7 doubles that always seem to come when needed, and his .303 RISP batting average to JuanE's .193, switching um' up only makes sense.

~Fox~

by pujols5 on Jun 1, 2006 1:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oh ya,

was anyone else pissed off when Juan got struck out LOOKING with the bases loaded?

~Fox~

by pujols5 on Jun 1, 2006 1:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hell yes

while i am trying to be positive about Juan Enc., he is just not helping things. i did see the game last night and he was hitting the hell out of the ball. his HR was a line-drive off of the Party Porch. He also had a strong liner to center that would be a double if it wasn't hit right at them. at least he is showing signs of life...

Albert Pujols is god with a lowercase "g". Let's go Redbirds, World Series '06 here we come!

by stlsportsfan on Jun 1, 2006 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's my adjusted lineup

Eckstein
Rodriguez
Pujols
Rolen
Spiezio, Luna, Taguchi
Molina
Encarnacion
Miles
SP

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 1:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I see your point but

I am pretty firmly in the camp, as are most people I have read who have studied optimal lineups, that the best order as far as producing runs is one in which the players are ordered in decending OBP. Therefore, Molina and his incredibly low OBP of .234 should stay the heck away from 5th in the order. That being said, Encarnacion's OBP isnt much better. I'd actually bat Luna or Miles 5th. You could make an argument from needing power at 5 but no one in our lineup outside of Pujols really has any legitimate power anyway. Also, as I'm sure has been said, BA w/ RISP is not a repeatable ability. Molina's will likely not stay that high for the rest of the season.

by jojo5492 on Jun 1, 2006 1:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

Well, I don't know enough about stats to know which are repeatable and which are not, so I'll have to take your word on it. However, I do think that some players are just better in clutch situations (e.g. Renteria) than others and I tend to think of Molina that way, despite his disturbingly low BA. I just looked up Molina's RISP for last year and guess what? It was .330, so .303 isn't unusual for him in his short career.

Like you, I have a high appreciation for OBP, but it still has to be taken in context with other stats. I like Miles where he is because he has a good OBP, and therefore a good chance of getting on base before starting over in the order, but his average with RISP is only .227 in 27 chances (although his 3-year average is .356.)

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Btw

I'm not sure if you caught my update in the post, but in it I mentioned moving Molina down to sixth -- mostly because I agree with you about his OBP.

by rob is back on Jun 1, 2006 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm pretty statistically-minded too

but I have to say that Juan's trouble doesn't look like a sample-size blip to me. Right now he is getting anxious and just flat-out guessing. That's the kind of problem that might be changed just be adjusting his mental approach, but does anyone have any confidence that's going to happen soon?.

So I guess I agree with you that Luna should bat 5th, absent an addition to the team.

by isaac on Jun 1, 2006 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs