right call, wrong reasons

by lboros on Apr 10, 2006 2:17 AM EDT in News Comment 47 comments

if isringhausen had done his job, we'd be crediting tony la russa with an unorthodox but boldly sensible decision -- ie, he brought in his best reliever to face the other team's best hitters, never mind the inning. the conventional wisdom says you save the closer for the 9th and bring in some other, lesser relief pitcher for the 8th, no matter who's batting. but what sense does it make to use josh hancock or brad thompson against the heart of the order in the 8th, while saving isringhausen for the bottom of the order in a 9th inning that might never arrive? more logical to use is'hausen now, against the hitters who can hurt you the most.

sabermetricians have spent years advocating this theory of bullpen management, and the reasoning is pretty compelling. so in a purely abstract sense, la russa made the correct decision to bring on is'hausen in the 8th.

but when you put the decision in context, some troubling implications arise. it would be one thing if la russa / duncan had chosen, proactively, to alter their philosophy of bullpen deployment. but that's not what they did. they simply panicked. having watched the bullpen piss the game away the day before, they lost their nerve and called on the only reliever they have any confidence in. so they made the right decision, but for unfortunate reasons. la russa / duncan have always subscribed to the conventional (if misguided) setup / closer division of bullpen labor, and they're not about to change. that being the case, they need to identify a reliable setup man. so perhaps it would have been better to send thompson right back out there to face lee, even though lee took thompson deep for the game-winner on saturday and has hit 2 hr off him in three career at-bats. it's april, not october; perfect time to find out how useful thompson can be in these spots. brad threw the ball well all spring and made only one bad pitch in the first week of the season; send him right back out there. for that matter, it would have been better to just give looper the damn ball -- he threw it well on friday, and he's getting paid to pitch in just this situation.

as things currently stand, the brass don't trust anyone to pitch the 8th -- that's what we take away from is'hausen's premature appearance. it would be a lot easier to gloss over if is'hausen had done his job, but he didn't -- and the cards ended up looking like the cubs of 04-05, all but giving the game away for free.

let me add, before i wrap this up, that ricardo rincon looks to me like an utterly useless piece of crap. give me ray king any day -- at least he goes after the hitters. rincon's lobbing softballs off the plate and trying to get hitters to chase; against a player with a modicum of discipline, he would appear to be defenseless.

Update [2006-4-10 9:28:32 by lboros]: SB Nation colleagues at Beyond the Boxscore have posted a win-expectancy graph of last night's game.

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wow

those are some harsh words for Rincon. He did ok against Howard in Philly although he doesn't necessarily have the best discipline. I'm still not sure I completely agree that King is better. He was serving up the long balls left and right it seemed. As for "going after hitters" what does it matter if King "went after them" if he couldn't get them out. Does it make him better or does it just make them each equally as useless if for different reasons.

It does appear that TLR/DD has already lost all faith in the bullpen which is tragic and bodes ill for the near future. Wasn't '03 the last time we had a bullpen situation like this...

by azruavatar on Apr 10, 2006 2:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No

I'm mainly upset that he didn't leave wainright in for a few innings. He was doing well.

by SleepyCA on Apr 10, 2006 3:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sick-flu like bats

We wouldn't be in this position if our bats came out of their coma. I hate Edmonds stance. He starts his stride so large that he can't move. He looks useless that he cannot adjust. Juan Enc. is leaving to many LOB's. The 2 spot does not seem to be working. It's early to panic but losing to the Cubs sucks. Jason 'hausen couldn't hit the plate. It's seems like a halloween movie every time he pitches. Time for Looper.

Steve Bartolai

by Bartjan on Apr 10, 2006 7:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Edmonds' stance has always been like that,

His is specifically a step-less swing. He's hit the ball hard on several occasions, I expect him to heat up soon.

by DanUpBaby on Apr 10, 2006 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luna

We need the defense and the DPs, Luna does not provide that. The 2b dilemma is going to haunt. Why is this guy still here?

by eddiespaghetti on Apr 10, 2006 8:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I'd rather stay with miles and spezio, then send up the next best bat off the bench.

by herr28 on Apr 10, 2006 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My concerns are with Juan and Molina at the plate.

They both have looked like dog shit. Molina had a few AB's last night where he missed the ball in all 3 swings by atleast a foot. I really don't have to say too much about Juan, his 176 runners left in scoring position already says enough (not to mention he seems to make the last out in every inning save the first).

Rincon just needed to put a few across the plate to Walker. If you saw the game on ESPN they had a shot of Tony making a sign that clearly said "put it right over the plate and make him earn a base". I watched all the games this weekend and my heart raced every time our starter left the game. Hopefully we don't get a bullpen year like the likes of the late 1990's early 2000's of Slocumb/Fossas/Yan types.

by riescher on Apr 10, 2006 8:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Juan

Encarnacion can't even hit a sac fly...has he had a ball out of the IF thus far?

Edmonds' bat has been deafeningly (?) silent as well. Is he above .150 still?

Cardinals Diaspora

by VanRam on Apr 10, 2006 9:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

jenc

juan reminds me of an even worse ron gant...if he could hit the ball he could do some damage, but when is he going to hit the ball?

by MarcGldstn on Apr 10, 2006 9:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Juan

Encarnacion is no Ron Gant - at least Gant had 30 home run power. Juan will be lucky to hit 20 this year. The simple fact that he's only had two above average seasons in his career (based on OPS+) should be enough to know that this is going to be the norm. (In other words, I think Juan is less Ron Gant, more Tino Martinez.)

Hit him 7th and be done with it.

by Robb on Apr 10, 2006 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Izzy in the 8th

I liked the decision to bring in Izzy, but had a different read on it than you did. They had Looper warming up the previous inning. I think they were planning to send out their best reliever to face Lee and Ramirez, and then give Looper, the backup closer, a shot at a save.

It was a sound plan--too bad Isringhausen was so maddeningly ineffective. It's gonna be an unpleasant day dealing with the Cubs fans at work.

Encarnacion hit the ball pretty well last night. The late DP ball was hit hard and in the air, it just happened to be right at Todd Walker or whoever was playing over second at the time. The strikeout on ball four wasn't so pretty.

by liam on Apr 10, 2006 9:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Okay

I'm just as frustrated as the next guy about the way things turned out last night. But I think some concerns are warranted and others may be just overreaction. I thought Luna played a fine game... looked good at the plate and didn't hurt in the field.
Encarnacion's results aren't showing... but that's because he's not lucky. Last year, his stats were helped by a healthy BABIP. Last night, he was selective and lined a ball hard up the middle which would have been a hit had Eckstein not been running. Let's give the guy more than a week before we ask for a refund. I feel just as comfortable with him at the plate as I did with Larry Walker last fall.
I agreed with the Izzy move last night... but also see how it could be interpreted by other relievers. That said, they should be inspired by the fact that they didn't get the ball... and work to get it next time.
And finally, Rincon is exactly the kind of nibbling, stuff-lacking, walk machine that will kill a team in crunch time. Call Jim Bowden and see what he's willing to give for him.

by Matt on Apr 10, 2006 9:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Izzie

Yes, the Izzie stategy was sound-- but only in the abstract. But I don't think Izzie was psychologically prepared to pitch in a non-closing situation. He's used to pitching for saves not holds. It's very common -- even if it makes no sense -- for pitchers to lose their nerve when pitching outside of their established roles. This happened to Latroy Hawkins for the cubs; he was a fine set up guy but closing basically ruined his career. I wonder if Izzie knew beforehand that he might come in early.

by lerwin1 on Apr 10, 2006 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's only

six games. Remember that the Cubs played really well against us last season as well.

Ponson looked to good. If he is our #5, we'll be in good shape starting pitching-wise.

I agree with the decision to bring Izzy if the logic was to have our best face their best. However, since this is not a widely accepted baseball strategy, I worry that doing so may have sent the wrong message to the team, making the sixth game of April seem like the sixth game in October.

Lemonacion needs to be moved to the six hole in the line-up. Who, then, would/should bat in the two slot?

by bgh on Apr 10, 2006 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Of Rodriguez starts in left...

... then it's him.

by sdrone on Apr 10, 2006 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Edmonds ideally,

or whoever's in left

by Nate811 on Apr 10, 2006 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, not Edmonds.

Ideally, he never hits 2nd. He hits poorly there.

by sdrone on Apr 10, 2006 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If not for

relievers being extremely fragile mentally, last nights maneuver would have worked perfectly. but izzy, to my eyes, looked extremely unprepared for the 8th inning last night. I bet if we had won friday or saturday, tlr and dunc would have maneuvered differently last night. also, did anyone else think molina looked listless and not "into the game" last night. He's the last guy i would ever suspect to look like that, but it seemed that way to me. let's get these guys home

by The Butcher on Apr 10, 2006 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I may have been reading too much into it but...

it seemed like Molina and Ponson were having difficulty communicating at times last night, especially in the 3rd or 4th inning. Ponson kept shaking him off and Molina kept pulling off his mask and staring out at the mound. Molina's a pretty demonstrative catcher anyway, but there was some weird stuff going on out there.

It may be too early to panic, but these games do count. A few extra wins in April give you some breathing room in September.

by svengali on Apr 10, 2006 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I assumed

Ponson was just being a crabby veteran and would occasionally want to throw something different than Molina was calling.

I thought the pitches he threw were intersting. He throw a lot of changeups (and least that's what ESPN called it - in the 80's, dropped a bit as it crossed the plate); he didn't seem to throw a lot of fastballs.

by sdrone on Apr 10, 2006 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Izzy unprepared?

I dont see how Izzy can be unprepared. He has pitched to these guys at ton of times. He should be able to go out against just about any cubs hitter with no prep. No excuse to load the bases up like that.

by Los Cardinales on Apr 10, 2006 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

the idea was that he was unprepared in the sense that he was not warmed up...

by Valatan on Apr 10, 2006 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Izzy scoreboard

Cliffhanger = 1
Shutdown = 1
"Falling off the barstool" bombed = 1

by BobCasey99 on Apr 10, 2006 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

eckstein

This dude has been bad as well. Between him and Miles can a team field two worse Punch and Judy type guys in the middle infield.

I know most dont, but I like Luna in there. He has some actual pop in his bat and runs better than most. Plus he has a really strong arm which makes up for some mishandles. I struggle to watch Eckstein heave it from short.

Spivey is 5-14 with 5 BB/2 K's in Memphis so that is encouraging. A GOOD Spivey makes this team better.

to give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.

by beanocook on Apr 10, 2006 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eckstein?

Leadoff guys are valuable.

He hasn't missed any defensive plays.

by sdrone on Apr 10, 2006 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just so-so

David Pinto made a really good point this morning in a comment at the Diaspora - basically he noted that the Cards went with cheap, below average players to fill in around the superstars. it worked in '05, but it's not working out so far this year.

The Giles miscue and missing out on 2B options like Lorretta and Castillo are going to haunt this team more than not starting Reyes or signing Ponson...

then there's a bunch of stuff in the pen that the team doesn't have much faith in too

Cardinals Diaspora

by VanRam on Apr 10, 2006 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Offense

Having not read his comments (yet), let me say that I think this is more indicative of the 2004 team than the 2005 team. The only suspect holes in the lineup last year - in my opinion - were 2nd and catcher. Eckstein was going to post a respectable OBP (.330 to .350 range), and offense isn't really a given at 2nd and C anyway. Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders in the corners were plenty of offense, when healthy (which was the worry last year.)

In 2004, there were questions at C, 2B, and left field (back when Sanders was the RF). But even then, the stopgaps they used in left were adequate, especially when you had 5 guys in the lineup that could hit (Edmonds, Pujols, Rolen, Renteria, and Sanders.)

This year, the Cards have holes at 2nd, C, and BOTH corner outfield positions. When you essentially have 5 automatic outs in the lineup, you're going to have problems scoring runs. (Last night's loss was the bullpen's fault, but the first two games were all offense, in my book.)

I have faith that the bullpen will turn it around. I like the rotation a lot. And Edmonds will start hitting the ball, thus helping out Pujols and Rolen. But they must acquire another bat, somehow, someway. The Astros made it to the World Series last year with a weak offense - but their pitching was better than what the Cards have today.

by Robb on Apr 10, 2006 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my thoughts

exactly.

The team thought, "heck we won a bunch of games starting Taguchi, Rodriguez and Nunez last year" and went wacky this offseason. False sense of confidence.

It reminds me when the Rams went to the playoffs a couple years ago, so they then didn't do much of anything in the offseason except pick up some leftover trash for a patchwork job and then ended up falling on their faces last season.

I dunno, maybe it's just me and of course, it's very early still.

Reverend Redbird

by erik on Apr 10, 2006 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i thought this was a cardinal site?

the best fans in baseball. the fans who cheer fro willie mcgee to strike out every AB in one season. i guess according to posts on here we might as well trade or release the whole team. Is Pujols safe?

by punchinjudy on Apr 10, 2006 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey, no worries

We've got a long way to go before we hit the negativity on the Cubs sites!

by sdrone on Apr 10, 2006 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looper

I wish TLR would use the guy. He isn't going to get better sitting on the bench.

by Zubin on Apr 10, 2006 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For comparison

Jim Tracy did the same thing yesterday with Mike Gonzalez and Roberto Hernandez. He brought in Gonzales, the closer, to face Griffey and Dunn in the 8th.

The Pirates ended up winning and Roberto Hernandez got the save.

by wcheuk on Apr 10, 2006 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yo

Everybody does need to chill. Just as sweeping the Phils didn't mean The Birds were gonna take the entire season by April, neither does getting swept mean the season is over. The truth is somewhere in the middle. This is a good team that needs to work out some kinks that were all too obvious the last three games. Longtime readers here know I am a Flubhater of the highest order, and watching these three games was as painful to me as anybody else, but c'mon. Tragicomedies like this will happen, and they tend to happen more often than not against the Flubs. In a sense, it might just work to the team's favor in the longrun. You can bet this has opened the eyes of TLR and Walt to the fact that, as constructed, this is no World Series team. It may still win the division when all is said and done, but for the first time it's been made clear even that may not happen. Good. I'd rather have that possibility raised now and get Walt's ass in gear than cruise through the first quarter only to watch it implode when things get tense and games become more important later. April games are important, yes. But so far we have a 500 team who just took a swift kick in the nuts from a hated rival. Let's see how/if they use that embarrassment and where they are at the end of the month before getting too worked up. Had it been any other team but the Flubs, we wouldn't be so freaked, but it would be far more worrisome to me overall. If they manage to take a couple from the Brewers these next few days and then crush the Reds after that, all this will be forgotten. I've been more than happy to trade the Flub rivalry for october these last couple years, and if that's the price again--fine. At least TLR and Walt have been given the early signal that this is gonna be a tougher season than those first three games indicated, and they're gonna have to get to work if they want another winner.

by rockin redbird on Apr 10, 2006 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

What is really going to be interesting - either this year or next - is the first time that Cardinal fans actually have to deal with a division RACE rather than a division BLOWOUT. Actually dropping into 2nd place (or lower) in June, July, or August is going to be interesting, for people who don't remember what it's like to have games that actually count that "late" in the season.

by Robb on Apr 10, 2006 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That will

most definately be interesting. And one other upside for those looking for a silver lining--Hendry has already been re-upped, which means a new contract for Dusty Baker can't be far behind. If a Bird sweep keeps him in the Skipper chair for a few more years, I say it's more than worth a few chuckles from the Flubfans.

by rockin redbird on Apr 10, 2006 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

pennant races

ok other than the last few years, there have been years when the cards havent even made the post season...not even that long ago. So I think if the cards come up short..again only april it will weed out the band wagon fans who have joined these last few years. This site is filled with life long fans, and I'd say a few fans who can't spell Juan Agusto let alone remeber how bad he sucked..did i spell that right?

by punchinjudy on Apr 10, 2006 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2006

Well, I'm not suggesting that I think the Cardinals won't be in playoff contention all year, nor that they aren't still the favorites to win the Central (because they still are.) I'm just saying - you have people like my Father-in-law who's coming over to dinner tonight and will likely have "the sky is falling" flowing out of his mouth, even if they win today. I think you'll see more people with an attitude like that this year if the Cards aren't up by 5 or 10 games by the break, simply because they're not used to having a close race.

The fact of the matter is - the Cardinals just started the season 3-3 on the road, which is acceptable. (4-2 would have been sweet, but still.) The Cardinals only have 3 more road games in the month of April, and those are in Pittsburgh. In fact, the Cards have 6 games against the Pirates, 4 against the Nationals, 3 against the Reds - plus 3 in St. Louis against the Cubs.

I have a feeling that the record is going to look pretty good come May 1st.

by Robb on Apr 10, 2006 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Juan

A-G-O-S-T-O.

by Nate811 on Apr 10, 2006 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's not panic

but no fans like to see their team lose 3 in a row to the Cubs, especially a couple games that they could have easily won. No, nobody here is giving up on them, but nobody's content to loose a series either - nor should they be.

It's also frustrating to watch your favorite team that was a WS team just two seasons ago - with a 2-6 of superstars - try to contend again with some a bunch of spare parts that can't hit a sac fly to tie the game. no, there's not need to panic, but a little muttering is not uncalled for.

Cardinals Diaspora

by VanRam on Apr 10, 2006 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

never too early to be concerned

I don't think anyone is really raising any new concerns. This is all stuff we were worried about before the season started:

The starting lineup is full of poor-to-mediocre hitters, the bullpen is full of pitchers with poor track records, and they're counting an awful lot on players continuing to have career years, coming back from injury or rebounding from off years. Really, with the exception of Albert and Carp, no one on this team is what you'd call a sure thing. Everyone else has big, blinking question marks over their heads.

I just can't imagine Walt will stand pat with this lineup and bullpen. It's too early to panic, but it's never too early to be concerned.

by svengali on Apr 10, 2006 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luna

So, I have a question that I haven't been able to answer since sometime last season.

Is this Luna? Is this the best Luna will get defensively? Yeah, he didn't make errors. But bobbles will eventually lead to errors.

His natural position is a shortstop correct? I've never seen him play that position. Did anyone see him sub there last year? I've seen him play 2nd, 3rd, and maybe outfield - and I just don't get that comfortable feeling defensively when he's at any of those positions.

Does he have a lot of errors at triple A?

The arm is nice. The hands seem to be the issue. Maybe it's a time thing - he needs to get comfortable or something. I'd like to see him be rock solid on defense, obviously, then work on the offense from there. I just haven't seen him be solid yet.

by sdrone on Apr 10, 2006 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

needs work

He needs more work. He has no minor league seasoning or major league seasoning. the guy has sat on the bench basically his whole carreer. I think he needs to go to Memphis to see if he has any real talent and worth keeping. To me he's a waste of a roster spot.

by herr28 on Apr 10, 2006 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

needs work

he does need work, but at what position? His natural position is SS, he needs to master footwork to play 2B. If they think he can be a full time player he needs to be in Memphis playing everyday. right now he is a waste of a roster spot. i don't think the braintrust knows what they want to do with him. he could have a better up-side than Spivey in the long run.

by eddiespaghetti on Apr 10, 2006 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still like our chances

First, last night in Chicago was so cold that it's amazing that anyone could play the summer game under those conditions (I think Taguchi needed some antifreeze to get started).

Sure, it hurt to be swept by the Cubs, but it's still early and there are good indicators as well. I expected Albert to contribute enormously, and he does. I was scared that Scottie would not have home run pop anymore, but he does. Ponson pitched credibly, so we have a decent 5 man rotation, which doesn't mean much in April but will mean a lot in August and September (October is another story, but first let's get to the playoffs). We saw enough from Miles against Philly that 2b doen't look hopeless.

Plus, sooner or later, JuanE might even get a hit when it counts.
Maybe.

by madridbend on Apr 10, 2006 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Temp?

What do we think the temp is gonna be in our new open stadium in October? Heh.

by sdrone on Apr 10, 2006 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Home Field Advantage

bring the hurt, Dodgers, Marlins, A's, Braves, and Angels.

by Valatan on Apr 10, 2006 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From Baseball Prospectus...

I think this speaks volumes about what Cards' fans should be thinking...

Joe Sheehan speaks: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4957

(He was responding to a query about the great starts of the Tigers & Brewers. Some excerpts, subscription only):

"...I'm going to use your e-mail to make the most important point I can make on April 10: everyone, calm the hell down. We've watched about 4% of the season, and if the events of the last week had happened in the middle of June, no one would be wasting electrons on the greatness of the Brewers and Tigers just because they'd put together five-game winning streaks against weak competition. We'd have perspective, and in the first week of the season, no matter how many times we go through this exercise, perspective is perpetually lost.

Six games are completely meaningless in the course of the baseball season, both in the sense of "impact on the standings" and "something you can glean information from." Two years ago, the Tigers themselves were 5-1 on almost this very date, on their way to a 72-90 season. Brewers fans should never, ever be overly excited about a hot start, because the 1987 Brewers may hold the record for worst use of a season-opening winning streak. They started the season 13-0, a stretch that included a Juan Nieves no-hitter. Less than a month later, they lost 12 games in a row, and they slipped under .500 before the All-Star break, eventually finishing as the third team in a great two-team race in the AL East.

Just look at last season for examples of how little we know after three or even six weeks. The Yankees were 11-19 in early May, choking on the Orioles' (22-11!) dust. They only managed to finish 21 games clear of the Birds. The Indians were one of the worst teams in the AL last April; they may have been the best in the five months that followed. The Astros were 15-30 on May 24, and they didn't clear .500 for good until after the All-Star break. You may recall watching them fairly deep into last October.

I think the overreaction to the season's first week, like the emphasis on the postseason and the persistence in connecting performance to character, is another one of those NFL memes that has poisoned baseball. In football, there are no small samples: with just 16 games on the schedule, every one has a dramatic impact on a team's chance to make the playoffs...Baseball isn't like that at all. Individual games are tiny fractions of a long, long season, and that long season is sometimes not even enough time for the variance to wash out...we have to let them unfold. We can't be so eager for a plotline, an event, something exciting, that we force the issue with the first team to have a five-game winning streak..."

by glennrwordman on Apr 10, 2006 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs