pm rumor post

by lboros on Mar 8, 2006 2:27 PM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

brian daubach has homered and the cardinals lead 3-0 in the top of the 4th vs. washington.

add'l thought re the nats: responding to the a.m. post about junior spivey, some folks in the comments thread started cooking up a trade idea that would bring 2b jose vidro to the cardinals. theory being that dc has to shed one of its two high-paid 2bmen (vidro or alfonso soriano) at some point. they do need pitchers -- workhorse esteban loiaiza left via free-agency, and brian lawrence (offseason acquisition from sd) is out for three months -- but i just can't see the cardinals taking on vidro's contract, which pays $7m this year, $7.5m next and $8.5 in 2008. and i'd be shocked if they made a play for the overrated soriano, who will be paid $10m this season and then hit the free-agent market.

i have heard faint rumblings, though, that the cards may be lodging inquiries about another player who was mentioned in that comments thread: miguel cabrera. he's definitely on the block -- as first rumored about 10 days ago (see the bottom of this post), later amplified by halos heaven and again today by mlbtraderumors.com -- but the cardinals have never been mentioned as players in that sweepstakes. and may not be. all i have heard -- and this is coming from down in jupiter -- is that the cardinals are looking into it. which means, presumably, that walter has had contact with the marlins to express interest and get an asking price. i am told that stl may explore a three-way deal, if that's what it takes to assemble the right package for florida.

let's not get too carried away -- even if all the foregoing it true, the cards would still have to be considered a longshot to acquire cabrera. there are simply too many other teams who can proffer better prospect packages. but walter has surprised us before. . . . and if cabrera really is available (it sure sounds like he is), is it that big a stretch to believe that the cardinals would inquire? it's the least we would expect, right?

the only real question is whether florida might be receptive to what walter proposes. and we'll find that out soon enough.

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soriano

i think the Nats would be more inclined to move Soriano given his "I'm just here for one season and then I'll go back to the AL after this season" bit earlier this year. Unless, Vidro is not as healthy as they might like us to believe. If the Cards really wanted to rent a bat for this season and this season only, Soriano would be a good one, especially if they waited a few more months. The guy doesn't have the work ethic or the personality to fit into the TLR clubhouse though, nor the glove to play in this system, nor as valuable to the team as a new shiny bonified star in LF.

Cardinals Diaspora

by Ryan Van Bibber on Mar 8, 2006 2:37 PM EST reply actions

Castillo....

I put him in the lineup generator...

Castillo
Eck
Albert
Edmonds
Encarcion
Rolen
Bigbie
Yadi
Carp

Interestingly, if you go to J-Rod instead of Bigbie...

Castillo
J-Rod
Albert
Edmonds
Juan En
Eck
Rolen
Yadi
Carp

I would note that these are based on last season's stats so J-Rod is inflated and Rolen is deflated. I think Castillo in the lineup might make LB's suggestion about batting Eck 9th even more interesting. Two guys with speed on the basepaths. Followed by doubles hitters.

by Brock20 on Mar 8, 2006 2:44 PM EST reply actions

Cabrera

So, I'm guessing that a 3-way deal would involve shipping Edmonds off for prospects, and then packaging those prospects, plus some combination of Lambert, Wainwright, Suppan, Marquis, Spivey and Miles for Cabrera?

Then, put Cabrera in the outfield, Luna at 2B, and Encarnacion in center? We get younger, and can keep a core of Pujols, Rolen and Cabrera together relatively long-term. Would it be an overall gain? I guess it depends on the exact package, but it's at least interesting.

Again, there's the question of whether Edmonds can be dealt--it would almost certainly have to be to a team with gads of prospects looking to win NOW. It seems pretty far-fetched, but not impossible.

by Valatan on Mar 8, 2006 4:28 PM EST reply actions

My turn to be Capt. Obvious

Edmonds is 10-5, good buddy...

The 26th Man

by 26thMan on Mar 8, 2006 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

I just have to say...

...that your comment cracked me up. I don't know why maybe the sense of "good luck with that ever happening" but I am crying tears from laughing.

It's unfortunate for the cardinals that that is the case though.

by azruavatar on Mar 8, 2006 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

I'd love Miggy....

but what would the Cardinals have to give up to get him? Reyes? Wainwright? Hanson? Thompson? All of them?
It sounds like the Marlins are asking for players and their first born children, but Miggy has so much potential I'd give them Wainwright,J-Rod, Hanson or Wainwright,J-Rod, Marquis.
Any other thoughts?

Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Mar 8, 2006 4:33 PM EST reply actions

From mlbtraderumors.com:

Cardinals Kicking Tires On Cabrera
That's right, a friend of MLBTradeRumors informs us that a team source has confirmed that the Cardinals are "checking into" Miguel Cabrera. An unknown third team would definitely be involved to broker a deal.

Seems to me that Jocketty's been looking to make that big splash all offseason, and obviously this would qualify. I would expect Anthony Reyes to depart as well as whatever other big-name prospect the team could wrangle. Reyes fits the bill as a Major League-ready, front rotation type starter. The Cards would use Cabrera in left field and could improve the club by as many as five wins with the addition.

Also,

Jason Marquis for Victor Diaz?
Just got word from my main Mets source with all sorts of good info.

With Pedro's status a question mark at this point, Omar Minaya would like to add a proven veteran starting pitcher to the middle of the rotation. The Mets first preference is Jason Marquis (a New York native, for what it's worth). They've offered a package beginning with Victor Diaz to entice Walt Jocketty. Diaz would probably be an upgrade over the Cards' current left field options. The Mets aren't thrilled with Diaz's defense and would be content to try Xavier Nady in right field.

Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Mar 8, 2006 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

Diaz

Cool! I suggested a Marquis-for-Diaz deal a coupla months ago. Does that make me smart or just a lucky guesser?

The 26th Man

by 26thMan on Mar 8, 2006 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

To get Cabrera...

...the Cards would have to give up Reyes and a few other prospects. But I would imagine we could throw in Mateo as well. On top of that the Marlins would want cash. And I would not be a bit surprised if that amount was in the $10 million range.

by acr on Mar 8, 2006 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

Miggy

Cabrera would be awesome! But the Marlins will ask for the farm, look what they got from Boston for Beckett.

I imagine their asking price would be at a minimum an organization's top OF prospect, top 3 pitching prospect, and someone else like a highly rated prospect in AA or A.

by wcheuk on Mar 8, 2006 4:48 PM EST reply actions

not a terrible idea...

if we're never going to play Reyes or Wainwright, I guess it makes sense to deal them. but we'd probably be dealing some combination of Marquis and/or Edmonds to a team with prospects to send to FL. which means that someone would be trading THEIR top OF prospect, top 3 pitching prospect and a lower prospect for Edmonds and either Wainwright/Reyes or Marquis. the only teams with enough prospects to pull the whole thing off might not take the extra payroll of Edmonds, so the Cards might have to eat some money.

it just sounds like too much trouble to actually happen.

by the way, there's a fairly long profile of Bill James in the new issue of Esquire (with Rosario Dawson on the front). it's not entirely favorable, but an interesting read.

-wkw

by kindred on Mar 8, 2006 5:14 PM EST reply actions

Mike Cabrera

The thought of him as a Cardinal makes me salivate the way my wife does when she goes to Nine West.

In the past, I've screamed (metaphorically speaking, of course) to anyone who would listen that we need to keep our kids as a way to balance the payroll. I still believe that, but good gravy... Miguel Cabrera could be El Hombrito (is that correct? I took German in high school) in St. Louis.

The 26th Man

by 26thMan on Mar 8, 2006 5:29 PM EST reply actions

just a thought

I don't think Edmonds would have to depart in order to land Cabrera. Cabrera is a huge bargain this year with his low pre-arbitration salary, which means that for this year he doesn't have much impact on the payroll. By next off-season, the Cards can simply decline the option on Edmonds contract and use that money to lock up Cabrera for the long term. Edmonds is a 10/5 guy and has a big salary which means he would be difficult to move anyway, and it would make the Cards that much better to have them both, even though it would only be for one season. I think if the Cards are able to land Cabrera it will probably cost us somewhere along the lines of Reyes, Rasmus, Hanson, and Wainright.

by amettrick on Mar 8, 2006 5:30 PM EST reply actions

Archaeopteryx

Before you guys go trading Edmonds away, note that BP projects him as the best CF in the National League, based on VORP. I say let's keep him, negotiate some sort of extension. If you want to trade Marquis, more power to you,

by Archaeopteryx on Mar 8, 2006 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

if trading edmonds

would get you to cabrera --- and i'm not convinced it would, but just theoretically --- then wouldn't you have to consider it? cabrera's just as productive a player, but he's 12 years younger and $10m cheaper.

it's probably about a wash in terms of present-day value, and in terms of future value it's a no-brainer. i'd do it in a heartbeat.

but i don't think that's the type of deal being explored

by lboros on Mar 8, 2006 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

thought about 2B

MLB.com's rumor mill section is reporting that the Cubs are having trouble finding a suitor for Todd Walker. It seems unlikely that they would want to make a deal with the Cards, but stranger things have happened, and there are a lot worse choices at 2B than Walker.

by amettrick on Mar 8, 2006 5:38 PM EST reply actions

Defensively?

I'm not sure there are.

by sdrone on Mar 9, 2006 12:45 AM EST up reply actions

trades

First of all, Walt would have to be insane to not ask about Cabrera but I can't imagine any way he'd end up here. It would definitely involve trading Wainwright and Reyes and we're going to need young pitching too badly to do that. Besides, someone (the Cubs) will trade a lot more than us for him.

About Marquis for Diaz, can't we do better? I'm not convinced he's (Diaz) going to be anything more than a right-handed Bigbie. Plus, the Mets are likely to be one of our main competitors in the NL this season. They get helped and we get another 4th OF for LF.

As for Vidro, anyone hoping for more than 120 games out of him is living in a dreamland. Plus, he is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too expensive for what we would get. We could get a good OF for much less (in terms of $$$$) than a broken-down 2B!

by chuckb on Mar 8, 2006 6:23 PM EST reply actions

Marquis for Diaz

I think you are right, we can do better. But the mlbtraderumor post said the package BEGAN with Diaz. I'd like to see what the rest of this package is before casting approval/denial on it.
I agree on the assesment of Vidro too. Good player, too expensive. If they wouldn't offer Grudz 4 million to stay, they aren't going to trade for someone earning 7 (I think that is Vidros $ for this year)

Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Mar 8, 2006 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

The Edmonds idea...

doesn't really work either because if you take a look at the top 20 prospects, there isn't a "win now" team without a CF, and it would take a minimum of one top 20 + Reyes + 50-80ish pitching prospect to get Cabrera--not happenin.

A diamond is just a lump of coal that performed well under pressure

by joker24 on Mar 8, 2006 7:25 PM EST reply actions

Boston

Sure, Coco Crisp is a CF, but surely, they would jump at the chance to put Edmonds there, and move Crisp to RF. I'd hate to turn Boston into that kind of monster, though.

by Valatan on Mar 8, 2006 8:16 PM EST up reply actions

Todd Walker

I thought the Cards had a no-trade-within-the-division rule?

Can't see Edmonds being dealt. If Cabrera has a low current-year salary, I also can't see why the Marlins need to desperately dump him, either.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 8, 2006 8:35 PM EST reply actions

they're desperate to dump him

because he'll be eligible for arbitration next off-season. if he's still a marlin, the arb process will put cabrera in the range of, what, $6m a year? $7m? $10m? who knows, with a player this good.

by lboros on Mar 8, 2006 10:47 PM EST up reply actions

arbitration 2007 and on

And his 2006 salary will be $472,000. When he becomes arbitration eligible after this season he'll barely have 3+ years of service time. That is important becuse arbitration figures are heavily weighted on service time. I would be surprised if Cabrera got more than $4 million for 2007 and/or more than $5.5-6 million in 2008. His 2009 figure could jump to the $7-8 million range but that would be about it.

But in the mean time he, Dontrelle (who agreed to a $4.35 million contract for 2006 as a Super Two), Hermida and others will draw in those ticket buyers, albeit few, to the Marlins home games. They'll be able to cover costs, including contracts of their stars with minimal spectators. So the reasons to keep young stars like Cabrera and Willis are financial. Who would come see the Marlins if they were not on the team? The Marlins will probably draw $25 million or so through ticket sales/concessions in bad years plus get league revenue checks of $20 million+ per year as well as getting some tv revenue. They really don't have it as bad as they claim. They probably just need to relocate.

by acr on Mar 9, 2006 2:49 AM EST up reply actions

your reasoning is good

but it's still probably true that the marlins are shopping this guy. too many sources are singing in harmony on this rumor. as mlbtraderumors pointed out, the fish dumped josh beckett this winter to avoid a arbitration-induced salary increase of just $2m --- from $2.4m to about $4.5m. even if cabrera gets only $4m in his first arbitration contract, that still puts him in the same range as beckett.

and i think $4m is too low by a far sight. kevin mench just got $3m in his 1st arb-induced contract, and cabrera's a lot better than him; adam dunn got $4.6m in his 1st arb contract in winter 2004-05. cabrera is better than dunn, and will be filing two years later; so factor in a) better stats, and b) inflation, and i think cabrera will be close to $6m for 2007.

still a huge bargain, but maybe too rich for the cheapskate marlins.

by lboros on Mar 9, 2006 7:15 AM EST reply actions