brew crew: 86-76

by lboros on Mar 6, 2006 3:05 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

not a heavy response to the brew-crew projection; 19 entries, which averaged out to the following:

86-76
3d place
747 runs
691 runs against

our projected runs for/against come out to an 87-75 record via the pythagorean formula -- right in line with the community's projected w-l record. once again the collective mind expresses itself coherently; whether or not accurately we'll find out come october.

our projection concurs with the conclusion we derive by aggregating the brewers' pecota forecasts, using the method i described in this post. that exercise puts milwaukee at about 775 runs scored, 725 allowed, which translates into a .533 pythagorean won-loss percentage, or an 86-76 record.

nobody was brave enough to pick the brewers to win the division, which is not surprising but also not very realistic, considering the number of responses we got. even if we place their odds of winning the division very conservatively at 5 percent, milwaukee should have gotten 1 first-place vote out of 19. and the brewers' odds of winning the division are surely better than that; hell, sportsbook.com gives them a 5 percent chance to win the nl pennant -- ie, make the playoffs and then win two playoff series. sportsbook doesn't list division-winner odds, but based on their line to win the league title i gotta think milwaukee's at no worse than 9 or 10 percent (ie, around 12-1) for the nl central crown. which means we prob'y shoulda had two 1st-place forecasts among our 19 projections.

another benchmark: in the ZIPS-based 100-season simulation written up at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog about a month ago, the brewers won the division 5 times in 100 tries. it should be noted, however, that milwaukee's average record for the 100 seasons was 80-82; they scored an average of 704 runs and allowed 716.

back this afternoon with some actual cardinal-related material . . . . .

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I just

got back in town so I missed the weekend fun again. Can't say I'm surprised nobody picked the Brewers to win the division, though. I mean, hey, we're all waiting around with fingers crossed that our guys will do it again--no need for a potential jinx ;-)

by rockin redbird on Mar 6, 2006 11:22 AM EST reply actions

I put the Brew Crew

at 89 wins, and I think that's reasonably bullish (if there is such a thing).

A great lineup 1-8. A great rotation 1-5. The bullpen is definitely their weakest suit, but then again, the strong rotation should help take the pressure off the relief corps.

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Mar 6, 2006 11:38 AM EST reply actions

Does anyone have any idea what she's talking about

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20060305&content_i d=1336412&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp

In refernce to the cardinals, Alyson Footer writes:
"This is a club that coasted to 102 wins in 2004, only to provide a near repeat performance last year with 95 victories. Tony La Russa, one of baseball's most successful managers, has what is becoming a yearly task of meshing a new group -- a combination of veterans and young, Major League-ready talent -- into one that can continue the winning tradition that has become old hat to Cardinal-red wearing St. Louis fans."

Am I simply misreading this or have I wound up in some parallel universe where we weren't the only team in a few decades with back to back 100 win seasons...
How hard is it to check the W/L record for a team? Apparently too hard for this writer.

by azruavatar on Mar 6, 2006 11:54 AM EST reply actions

Looks like the Copy Editors

have been notified.... it now reads 105 and 100...

by salvomania on Mar 6, 2006 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

not the only team

The Yankees did it during their run. Only real team, mabye.

by Valatan on Mar 6, 2006 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

touche

by azruavatar on Mar 6, 2006 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

And don't forget the Braves:

Back-to-back 100-win seasons in 2002-03, and back-to-back-to-back 100-win seasons in '97-'98-'99.

And, in the AL besides the recent Yankees, are the A's in 2001-02.

by salvomania on Mar 7, 2006 9:49 AM EST up reply actions

and who represents

the "young, Major League-ready talent" that he has to mesh? John (Not Young) Rodriguez? Aaron (Not Talented) Miles? The only rookie with better than a 50-50 chance to even make the roster is Anthony Reyes... hell, on the entire projected roster the only young players with less than 2 yrs. (full or part) of MLB experience I can think of are Reyes and Brad Thompson...

by salvomania on Mar 6, 2006 12:36 PM EST reply actions

Wow.

That sentence rates a 8.9 out of ten on the insaneometer.

Good find.

by Valatan on Mar 6, 2006 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

It was like

driving by a car wreck reading that. I didn't really want to keep reading but I found myself oddly compelled to. Did they drag little Alyson out of some high school paper gig?

As for the Brew Crew, I'm crossing my fingers that Fielder's, Weeks', and company's relative inexperience keeps them under the 90 win mark. Otherwise the Crew would start encroaching on our side of the mountain. With that kind of talent it would make me worry quite a bit if they do.

by onephinepeace on Mar 6, 2006 1:19 PM EST reply actions