gunn sighted

by lboros on Mar 30, 2006 6:59 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

brian gunn weighs in: his five questions about the cardinals piece is up at the hardball times. like most of us, he has his concerns about this edition of the cardinals. the piece includes a nice, quick analysis of the new stadium's likely effects (an underdiscussed topic this offseason). no firm predictions from brian, but he places the most stock in this scenario: "Carpenter regresses from his Cy Young season and Rolen hits only 20 or so home runs, but the Cards jump on Big Albert's back and tamp down a weak division."

roster moves: duncan goes, wainwright stays. i like both decisions. nothing at all against duncan, whose spring was every bit as impressive as wainwright's; he just needs to a) learn to play the outfield, and b) get regular at-bats to consolidate the improvement he exhibited this spring. here's how the prospect watcher for baseball prospectus, kevin goldstein, sees duncan: "He'll never hit enough to be an everyday player, but he bats left-handed, has a little pop and understands the strikezone, the basic recipe for a Mark Sweeney/Greg Colbrunn type of career." i'd take that; hope it comes to pass.

as for wainwright, he's in the opposite boat; he'll "get more out of 75-85 innings in the bigs than he would out of another 180 in the PCL," as prospectus' chris kahrl puts it.

one last peek behind baseball prospectus' subscription veil: its increasingly well-known projection instrument, PECOTA, doesn't think much of the cardinals this year, projecting them to win just 86 games and eke out a title in a watered-down nl central. in theory, not all that different from gunn's scenario; but 86 wins sounds wayyy pessimistic even to this skeptical fan. the accompanying write-up says:

The Opening Day lineup will feature four starters--Yadier Molina, David Eckstein, So Taguchi, and Junior Spivey, that simply don't qualify as adequate regulars for a first-division club. Nor do the Cardinals have anything in the way of farm system depth. It's going to require some mid-season capital expenditures to get this team in shape for the post-season, and given that the parity in the National League is likely to produce a seller's market, Walt Jocketty's Midwestern conservatism could get in the way of another pennant.

that's way too harsh on eckstein (who has batted leadoff for three playoff teams in five years) and molina, but the comment about the midseason trade market is well taken. walter is not gonna get a larry walker or scott rolen for junk this year; any midseason patch will be expensive, both in dollar and talent terms. and it will be complicated by the longer-range payroll issues that confront the team. it won't be easy to move marquis or suppan the last week in july, when both are two months from free agency; but moving young, inexpensive talent in exchange for a short-term postseason upgrade is something the team simply can't afford.

so could they win as few as 86? yeah, sure; but i'll still take the over.

Update [2006-3-30 11:31:28 by lboros]: ryan from Cardinals Diaspora does a guest turn at SB brother site Beyond the Boxscore, previewing the cardinal pitchers.

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Comments

I'll definitely take

the over. I'm figuring on the 91-94 range.

It will be an up-and-down year offensively, one that will have us gnashing our teeth for months over inconsistent hitting. But the mound boys will surprise us all by easily leading the NL in ERA and redefining the Cardinals as a "pitching" team.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 30, 2006 9:07 AM EST reply actions

Agreed

Funny, I am like minded...

I don't figure Rolen is really 100% and I am skeptical that Pujols and Edmonds can keep up the pace they have set over the past five years or so.

But I figure Mulder, Marquis and Suppan all have something to prove and will largely out perform expectations.

90 wins is on the low end of what I expect from this team.

by Zubin on Mar 30, 2006 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

way over 86!

im an optimistic guy, so i will take the over, in fact i'll say the cards win 95-100 games, how about that? comeon, rolen only hits 20 homers, i've got him hitting at least 25. also, whats wrong with molina and eckstien, i would take them over many other shortstops and catchers in the nl. molina is the best catcher in the nl, and he is going to get better with the bat this year. man, pecota is really down on the cards. we'll show them, GO CARDS!

by cards4life on Mar 30, 2006 9:25 AM EST reply actions

molina

I agree- if molina stays healthy, he could very well be the impact bat we need this year.

by SleepyCA on Mar 31, 2006 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah right...

Yadi and Eck not first-division starters? Bull!

(no stats for that one :p)

Blog about baseball and other stuff

by Neuronix on Mar 30, 2006 9:37 AM EST reply actions

Fantasy - It's a question of definition

What the writer meant, probably, is that Eckstein and Molina don't hit well enough to be picked on his fantasy team. In a fantasy league, Eck and Yadi don't produce the BA/HR/R/RBI/SB totals to be roto stars.

However, in real life, where defense counts, e.g., the National League 2005, there is absolutely no question that Eck and Yadi started not merely for a first-division ballclub, but for a 100 win team.

That dude should tune in to real life.

by madridbend on Mar 30, 2006 10:38 AM EST up reply actions

First-Division Definition

I'm not the biggest So Taguchi fan, but lets look at his numbers last season:

396 AB/8 HR/53 RBI/.285 BA/.322 OBP/.412 SLG

Does anybody think that So is going to get more than 400 ABs this season? It seems to me that this assessment might not have taken into account La Rusa's managerial philosophy, noted recently on this blog, of shuffling four outfielders. The problem, it would seem to me, would be not so much So, who got 396 ABs on a 100-win team last season, but the rest of the outfielder corps he is rotating with: Encarnacion, Bigbie, etc.

by bgh on Mar 30, 2006 10:08 AM EST reply actions

Rolen's home runs

To be honest, I don't care if Rolen only has 20 home runs. I look at the type of hitter he is, and I wanna see the RBIs. If he's driving people in, but he hits more doubles or something and fewer home runs - I'll just sit back and happily watch him vacuum up ground balls.

by sdrone on Mar 30, 2006 10:38 AM EST reply actions

Works for me.

At this point I'm anxious as hell to watch ANYBODY vacuum up ground balls, anywhere. How many minutes is it until opening day?

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 30, 2006 10:44 AM EST up reply actions

Wow - just 86

I for one do not see a Carpenter regression. He's been pitching well all spring training - who says he has to regress? In all seriousness why can't he have sustained dominance like Clemens, or Oswalt or Santana? He's got the peripherals and he has the stuff. I think he could easily be in the hunt for another Cy Young along with Mulder. (I know the vitriol for Mulder's peripherals around here but I like him regardless)

My only real concern is if we stand pat at the ASB. We are going to need to make an acquisition of some kind be it hitter or rent-an-ace in Schmidt/Contreras. I hope that if an impact player becomes available, Walt will go out and get them (I'm talking about you Cabrera).

by azruavatar on Mar 30, 2006 11:20 AM EST reply actions

Carp, Rolen, etc.

Rolen - to be realistic, hasn't hit a homerun in a spring game. He hasn't struck the ball the same since he injured his shoulder. Maybe he won't even hit 20, maybe he'll hit fifteen. Maybe he'll get injured again. I think it's reasonable for a 30 homer, injury prone guy to regress to 20 homer status after an injury like that, I really do. And for you moneyballers, RBIs are not a telling stat. I hope he has a lot of RBIs, too, because it'll mean guys are getting on base. That's what we should really be worried about. Encarnacion will cost us ten runs this year if he's who we have to go with in the two hole. I hope that's not the case. One thing Rolen will do, is he'll play great defense - and I know he can hit better than Abraham Nunez, who people complained about missing in the playoffs.

As for Carpenter's regression...of course he'll regress some. Not that he won't pitch well, or his stuff won't be as good, because I think it will. But to be locked in the way he was for an entire season is rare. He'll be the guy in our rotation no one wants to face - but he logged a lot of innings last year...wasn't it like 240? - and that had to affect a guy who hasn't been healthy most of his career. I think he could win 18-20 games, if healthy, and if the bullpen pulls its weight...but even that is a regression from the constantly dominating performances we saw from him last year.

I love Yadi, but he's a little overrated by some fellow Cards fans. Everyone talks about his defense because he has a great arm - but didn't he lead the league in passed balls last year? I think he's progressed as a hitter and has some real power...but I don't know what that translates into numbers wise. I hope he can improve on his on base, and homerun totals.

MO, FWIW - Jocketty will make a move when one that doesn't murder us is there to be made. I think he expected Mulder to be more than he has been - and he has been a solid number two or three starter. I think he expected Mulder to be something of an ace - which he hasn't been. In fact, Dan Haren might be as good right now. He really might be. I don't think Jocketty wants to do that again (salvage future, get beat by a little value wise in a trade).

By the way lboros - I love your blog. I check this almost every day, right after I check the post. I think its great that you can do something that you enjoy, as well as consolidating info for other fans.

by Toddius396 on Mar 30, 2006 11:45 AM EST reply actions

thanks toddius

i appreciate that. hope you'll keep reading.

by lboros on Mar 30, 2006 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

thanks

I too appreciate the blog. I don't always agree with your thoughts but I enjoy readiing your work. It's nice to go to about two or three sites in the morning and get my Cardinal fix before WORK actually starts. I live in Brewer country so its nice to read some good writing on a real team.

Thanks again.

to give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.

by beanocook on Mar 30, 2006 11:56 AM EST reply actions

Molina?

Including Molina in that bunch is ignorant.

Take out his last April, and his offensive numbers are solid enough for a catcher. Not to mention he's batting .400 in spring training, and he hit well in his few opportunities in the Classic. He's also got another year under his belt and will likely improve.

Not to mention - show me where all these first-rate catcher trees are growing. BP has made snarky comments about 2/3 of the catchers in the league. I don't know what they're looking for.

by ChrisK on Mar 30, 2006 12:36 PM EST reply actions

Piazza circa 1996

by Valatan on Mar 30, 2006 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

The only way we could satiate BP

would be to stick pujols behind the plate and say his offense makes up for his defense...then they will be ok with our catcher. Otherwise brace yourself for the snarky comments.

by azruavatar on Mar 30, 2006 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

95 wins

Molina will hit better this year. The starting pitching could actually be better, especially if Marquis can manage to avoid one of swoons.

Concerns remain at second and left, though. If Taguchi gets more than 300 PA, he's going to be exposed for what he is: bad.

by Lance on Mar 30, 2006 12:49 PM EST reply actions

Blasphemers!

It's a little shocking seeing some of you guys ragging on Brian Gunn's article. Gunn as ignorant and out of tune with the game of baseball? Nobody who'd spent five minutes a few years back reading Redbird Nation could agree with those comments. FWIW, I've always thought Yadi was on of those mythical "clutch" hitter after sitting behind home plate for the end of Larry Walker's second game in St. Louis, and have a feeling he's ready for a breakout season offensively.

Today's gamecast link, for those who didn't see it in the other day's thread.

by liam on Mar 30, 2006 1:01 PM EST reply actions

Correction...

That was Larry Walker's first game, not his second. I started out in nosebleed territory and still have a lousy picture of his first at-bat as a Cardinal saved on my cell-phone. Down in the seventh, some people with fantastic seats twelve or so rows behind home plate left the game who happened to be sitting next to some friends. The cell-phone came in handy twice that day...

by liam on Mar 30, 2006 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

Oh man! From Beyond the Box Score

"Jeff Suppan is the `96 Honda Civic of pitchers, making up what he lacks in flash with reliability."

by sdrone on Mar 30, 2006 1:04 PM EST reply actions

Nothing wrong with Civics

I wish I had bought one five years ago and saved a few grand over the Integra that I got, which is basically a Civic with better styling. Reading that pitching preview cheered me up quite a bit, almost enough to make me quit thinking about second base, left field, and the two hole for five minutes.

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Mar 30, 2006 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, nothing wrong with it..

...I just thought that was a hilarious way of putting it.

by sdrone on Mar 30, 2006 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

NL Central watered down?

I don't think the NL Central is watered down and neither does PECOTA.

The BP article has the NL Central as 14 games over .500, tied for the best of any division with the AL East and AL West.

by DizzyDean17 on Mar 30, 2006 2:47 PM EST reply actions

What did it predict about last year?

That would tell us something, since we know last year's results.

by sdrone on Mar 30, 2006 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

My 5 questions:

How will the MV3s perform?: How much longer can Pujols avoid injury; How much does Edmonds have left in his tank and will Rolen return to form?
Will the Cards be able to fill the holes at 2nd and left with Spivey, Miles, Luna, Tagucci, Bigbie and Rodriguez?
How well will pitchers in their contract years perform?
Where is the money? Will there be enough for a mid-season acquisition?
Will these Cards show they can win in the post season?

by Zubin on Mar 30, 2006 2:57 PM EST reply actions

If all these "experts"(BP, ESPN, etc...)

knew as much as they think they do, they'd be managers or GMs. I take no stock in what they say.

by cardsrul on Mar 30, 2006 4:01 PM EST reply actions

Archaeopteryx

I agree with you. When I want thoughtful analysis of the Cards, I come here or read Danup. BP hates the Cards, and no one on ESPN has two brain cells to rub together.

by Archaeopteryx on Mar 30, 2006 7:40 PM EST up reply actions

Chris Kahrl...

Is a woman. But I don't think she has any grudge against the Cards. I've been reading her transaction analyses for some time now and she's spread her criticism and praise wherever it's been deserved. If that means questioning Beane and praising Bowden, she's done it.

Why would you think BP's analyses of those four players omits defense? It doesn't. Not saying I agree, but her comments weren't tossed out randomly because of fantasy baseball or something.

by Tim Dierkes on Mar 31, 2006 11:33 AM EST reply actions

Christina Kahrle.....

Not only is a woman, but had a sex change to become one....that aside, saying Molina doesn't belong on a top division club is just ignorant.....the guy has a 70 arm, blocks the ball well, is smart beyond his years. He does have slow bat speed, but hardly ever strikes out. He'll never be an impact bat, but he should be adequate for a catcher....how many great hitting catchers are there in the NL anyway? the first thing I want from Molina is defense, and he does a great job. Sorry BP, but stats NEVER tell the whole story.

by soup52 on Mar 31, 2006 11:48 PM EST reply actions

Hear hear!

And just to illustrate how important Molina is, today I caught a few innings of the Padres/Cubs ST game, with Mike Piazza behind the plate. Juan Pierre lost no time running on Piazza, and Mike's throw down to second (on one bounce) was just embarrassingly weak, just appalling. John Mabry could steal on this guy. On one hand I feel sorry to see such a great player (though never a great defensive C) embarrass himself like that, but his ego tells him he still belongs behind the plate. And the fact that San Diego wants to trot him out there to catch 90-100 games this year says all you need to know about their playoff chances.

I've long had a negative opinion of Kahrl because of a lot of very nasty, gratuitously snarky thinks she/he has written over the years, just over-the-top with vitriol. Maybe now as a full-time she she's a little nicer? It seems like there's less of an edge to her writing, has anyone else noticed that?

by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 1, 2006 9:25 PM EST up reply actions