community projection: yadi

by lboros on Feb 7, 2006 9:01 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

yadi molina won the who-to-project-next poll by 7 votes over juan encarnacion; i'm thinking we'll do yadi today and juancion over the weekend.

at about this time last year, i wrote about the cardinals' two youngest starting catchers before molina, ted simmons and tim mccarver. both took over full-time backstop duties at age 21; yadi was 22 last year when he assumed the post. here's how the three young'ns' lines compare:

	age	ab	r	h	2b	3b	hr	rbi	bb	avg	obp	slg
simmons '71	21	510	64	155	32	4	7	77	36	.304	.347	.424
mccarver '63	21	405	39	117	12	7	4	51	27	.289	.333	.383
molina '05	22	385	36	97	15	1	8	49	23	.252	.295	.358

yadi's line is clearly the weakest of the three, at least on the surface. but let's do a little spin doctoring. molina hit for about the same power as his elder youngsters did (.106 isolated power, vs .094 mccarver and .120 simmons) and walked about as often (1 per 17.7 plate appearances, vs 1:16 mccarver and 1:15 simmons); the biggest difference between his line and theirs is in batting average. and batting average, as we learned in the BABIP discussion, can be skewed by ephemeral factors that don't carry over from season to season. in molina's case, the obvious skewage occurred in the season's first two weeks, when he got 1 hit (a single) in 29 at-bats. from april 18 forward, molina's line looked like this:

	age	ab	r	h	2b	3b	hr	rbi	bb	avg	obp	slg
molina '05	22	356	36	96	15	1	8	49	22	.270	.313	.385

which is a pretty fair approximation of mccarver's rookie line overall, and nearly equal to simmons' in terms of power and walk rate. here's how those two guys fared the next season:

	age	ab	r	h	2b	3b	hr	rbi	bb	avg	obp	slg
simmons '72	22	594	70	180	36	6	16	91	29	.303	.336	.465
mccarver '64	22	465	53	134	19	3	9	52	40	.288	.343	.400

both guys held the line on batting average while increasing their power; mccarver improved his plate discipline as well. those are the type of broad-based improvements good young hitters make, and there is reason to hope molina can make similar sophomore strides. it's pretty out of character for me to take the optimistic view; but then it's not every catcher who can hit 8 dingers in 400 at-bats at age 22, as yadi did last season.

here's a more arresting way to look at this: molina had a bad obp and bad slugging pct and has a long way to go before he contributes anything to the offense. he could make a quantam leap in ops (say, 75 points) and still be costing the team runs. but in light of his stellar glove work and his low salary, molina doesn't have to be a net positive with the bat; if he can just get the obp to .320 and the slugging avg to .385, he's an extremely valuable player. and if he can get the obp to .340 -- which i think is possible two to three years down the road -- he's an all-star candidate.

let's set molina for 500 at-bats. project from the gut -- no looking at ZIPS / PECOTA / etc until after the fact, nor at prior respondents' numbers. post your line first, then see what ev'ybody else put down. the usual categories:

batting avg
on-base pct
slugging pct
homers
rbi
runs

resources:

yadi's baseball reference page, including his 10 most comparable
his 2005 splits at espn.com
his davenports at baseball prospectus

i'll leave this open until tomorrow morning, then publish results. have at it.

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Comments

and since i always go first

i'll put molina down for

.271 avg
.325 obp
.381 slg
11 homers
58 rbi
49 runs

i'm bullish

by lboros on Feb 7, 2006 9:04 AM EST reply actions

Yadi, Yadi, Yadi

.275 avg
.326 obp
.400 slg
12 HR
60 RBI
46 runs

I'm even more bullish. I look for his slg to go up as his Doubles rate grows (and not because of his ability to stretch singles into doubles...)

by Silent George on Feb 7, 2006 9:14 AM EST reply actions

yadi

.266 avg
.320 obp
.370 slg
10 hr
65 rbi
54 runs

by arsmizzou6485 on Feb 7, 2006 9:19 AM EST reply actions

Yadi06

With a weakish catching crop in the NL, I think he could be an All-star candidate this year (what with Cardinals fans' tendency to vote for the home boys). Not that his numbers will deserve it, but they'll come close.

.280 average
.330 obp
.375 slg.
15 homers
60 rbi
43 runs

by itsalemmon1019 on Feb 7, 2006 9:23 AM EST reply actions

It'd be almost impossible

for Yadi to slug .375 if he hits .280 with 15 hr in 500 ab.

He'd end up with 188 tb in those 500 ab, and if you subtract his homers, that leaves only 128 tb gained on his remaining 125 hits. Meaning Yadi only gets 3 doubles in 2006.

If Yadi hits above .270 with double-digit HR, he's gonna slug around .400, minimum.

by salvomania on Feb 7, 2006 11:32 AM EST up reply actions

Pup

.268 avg
.324 obp
.388 slg
13 HR
68 RBI
54 runs

Yadi had a very poor start last year but bounced back nicely. I look for him to get off to a better start and have a solid offensive year. Hopefully he can stay healthy..

by TenRingsAndCounting on Feb 7, 2006 9:24 AM EST reply actions

Yadi...

.261 avg
.315 obp
.386 slg
10 home runs
58 rbi
45 runs

I think the dominican league showed us that Yadi will still go through boughts of slumping (see his drop from the beginning of the year). While he's only 23, he's still pretty much catching year round (with the World Baseball Championships and winter league) and that has to take its toll. I'm still projecting a jump, and I do think he'll be an all-star in 2007...

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Feb 7, 2006 9:36 AM EST reply actions

YA-DAY

I think he's learning and will start to show it in 06:

265avg/320obp/385slg/10hr/60rbi/50r

by rockin redbird on Feb 7, 2006 9:45 AM EST reply actions

Yadier. His name just rolls off the tongue

.260/.311/.375/11/55/47

by sdelek on Feb 7, 2006 9:46 AM EST reply actions

the best of the flying molina brothers.....

i hope we don't overlook what yadi brings to the table - aside from offense. an absolute canon of an arm, great defense, learing to handle a staff, etc., etc. we're lucky to have him because there are plenty of clubs who have stiffs behind the plate.

as for his offense numbers, here's my yadi 2k6 projections...

ba: .275
hr: 13
rbi: 69
obp: .320
slug: .390
runs: 60

by busch league on Feb 7, 2006 9:51 AM EST reply actions

A step or tw away from his big bro Bengie still...

AVG: .272
OB%: .323
SLG%: .370
HR: 13
RBI: 64
R: 42

But I do see him winning his first gold glove if he plays in ~130 games.

by PhatAlbert on Feb 7, 2006 9:53 AM EST reply actions

Yadier "Alfred" Molina

AVG: .264
OBP: .318
SLG: .393
HR: 12
RBI: 66
R: 57

I see Yady hitting a ton of stand-up doubles, only he'll have to slide. God love ya, slowpoke.

by Hummingbird on Feb 7, 2006 10:08 AM EST reply actions

Molina on 500 ABs

.265
.322
.450
10 HR
55 RBI
60 R

by STLEdge on Feb 7, 2006 10:18 AM EST reply actions

SLG

Apparently I'm giving Yadi a lot of doubles. I think there was a disconnect since we've done Edmonds and Rolen, I'm naturally adding a certain % to OBP to getting SLG.

Oops. If you'll allow edits, Larry, cut me down to .385 SLG - just enough to get him over .700 OPS

by STLEdge on Feb 7, 2006 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

done

i think you made a good catch (no pun) there --- .385 is more consistent with the overall line.

by lboros on Feb 7, 2006 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

i <heart> yadier molina

.282 AVG
.324 OBP
.390 SLG
14 HR
63 RBI
58 R

by brentonjay on Feb 7, 2006 10:27 AM EST reply actions

lets try

avg: .278
obp: .323
slg: .391
hr: 10
rbi: 68
r: 42

by Just Rope Ball on Feb 7, 2006 10:41 AM EST reply actions

I like Yadi...

But it seems like a few of you are being wildly optimistic.

AVG .259
OBP .327
SLG .397
HR 8
RBI 59
R 62

by Bivouac77 on Feb 7, 2006 10:44 AM EST reply actions

Improvement

AVG: .257
OBP: .305
SLG: .372
HR: 11
RBI: 56
R: 44

by bschulte on Feb 7, 2006 10:51 AM EST reply actions

Decent Catcher numbers

Avg: .271
OBP: .320
SLG: .389
HR: 10
RBI: 61
R: 43

by wcheuk on Feb 7, 2006 10:59 AM EST reply actions

small uptick

.275
.320
.390
10
59
42

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Feb 7, 2006 11:00 AM EST reply actions

Molina improves

AVG .273
OBP .321
SLG .378
HR 13
RBI 57
R 49

I don't think he'll score too many more runs than he did last year, except those he scores on his own (I'm thinking a few more HR), plus we're assuming 120+ additional plat appearances. He's still awfully slow and he's still most likely going to hit in the 8 hole.

by lawman3842 on Feb 7, 2006 11:03 AM EST reply actions

Yadi

AVG .265
OBP .330
SLG .370
HR 12
RBI 75
R 50

by martin on Feb 7, 2006 11:21 AM EST reply actions

Molina

.280
.315
.380
15 HR
76 RBI
43 R

by Valatan on Feb 7, 2006 11:28 AM EST reply actions

Bullish on YaMo for ought-six

I think Yadier has such a better approach to hitting than his predecessor---so I'm still a little in shock over how well MM did in SF in '05---but Yadi's youth + natural improvement + his desire will add up to a great season in 2006.

.278/.334/.408

13 homer, 70 rbi, 57 runs scored.

I know that seems really optimistic, but Yadi has an approach and a stroke that I can easily see translating into a .280 hitter---if he comes close to that, that'll add 25+ pts to his OBP---and I see him evolving to where he can take a few more walks (plus the increased IBB in front of the pitcher if Yadi does improve), hence the 40-pont climb in OBP.

As for the power, I see Yadi capable of 24 doubles to go with his 13 hr---if you pro-rate his 385 AB from '05 to 500, he ends up with 20 doubles and 10 hr.

by salvomania on Feb 7, 2006 11:28 AM EST reply actions

Great.

Now I can't help but call him "YaMo B There." Thanks, St. Louisan Michael McDonald.

by Hummingbird on Feb 7, 2006 12:51 PM EST up reply actions

Every time he comes to the plate

for the past year, my wife sings that song. That's where I got it.

by salvomania on Feb 7, 2006 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

Yadi Mo 2006

BA: .267
OBP: .322
SLG: .365
R: 62
RBI: 68
HR: 13

by michajo on Feb 7, 2006 11:40 AM EST reply actions

Regarding slugging:

total bases divided by at-bats

We know if Yadi hits .267 in 500 at-bats that's 134 hits. Subtract 13 homers (52 total bases) leaves 121 hits.

For Yadi to slug only .365 (183 total bases), that would mean that his 121 non-HR hits could yield no more than 131 total bases, which means that, with the line above, Yadi will hit a maximum of 10 doubles in 2006.

Assuming 20 doubles, .270 with 10 HR has to be at least .370.

Assuming 20 doubles, .270 with 15 hr has to be at least .400.

by salvomania on Feb 7, 2006 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

Lookin good

BA: .270
OBP: .325
SLG: .485
RUNS: 52
RBI: 69
HR: 13

by RB @ Viva El Birdos on Feb 7, 2006 11:55 AM EST reply actions

oops

i meant .445 for SLG

by RB @ Viva El Birdos on Feb 7, 2006 11:57 AM EST reply actions

Sign me up for

.270/.322/.395/10/50/40

plus infectious grins whenever good things happen, and a fierce attitude against any crap from opposing players.

8/13/79- Lou Brock 3000 hits

by lb3000 on Feb 7, 2006 12:03 PM EST reply actions

A wee bit more plate discipline ...

but no dramatic improvements as a hitter. For that, we'll have to wait for 2007.

Avg .260
OB .322
Slg .376
HR 12
RBI 62
R 45

by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 7, 2006 12:05 PM EST reply actions

Much improved without a spring slump...

.290/.340/.420 16/73/54

He really picks it up this year. Might I also add that he picks off 14 runners at first base as well.

by elderj on Feb 7, 2006 12:53 PM EST reply actions

movin' on up

avg - .282
obp - .330
slg - .392
hr - 10
rbi - 67
r - 53

count me bullish, too. I love this guy's "make-up" - as lb3000 noted above, even at 22, Yadi's got that chip-on-his-shoulder, won't-take-crap-from-anyone attitude that you love in a catcher. And maybe I'm just reaching for reasons for optimism, but methinks his solid performance in the NLCS also foretells good things this year. (.318 avg, .455 slg)

by DCRedbird on Feb 7, 2006 1:11 PM EST reply actions

It's Going... Going... It's Yadier!

avg - .280
obp - .335
slg - .395
hr - 15
rbi - 65
r - 55

Break out year.

Close friendship/tutor-esque relationship w/ Pujols starts to become apparent and Yadi begins using Albert's knowledge passed on and lessons taught at the plate.

All Star backup.

Cheers, Alex Fritz

by Alxfritz on Feb 7, 2006 1:15 PM EST reply actions

My 2 cents

BA .265
OBP .310
SLG .395
HR 12
RBI 72
R 45

Bit more power

by Neuronix on Feb 7, 2006 1:55 PM EST reply actions

More power

With modest increase in BA and walks--That's what I expect from a young hitter who is a good student--My description of Molina.

BA .280
OBP .350
SLG .400
HR 13
RBI 75
R 50

by oldbirdwatcher on Feb 7, 2006 2:09 PM EST reply actions

Molina

BA:.280
OBP:.345
SLG:.408
HR:14
RBI:65
Runs:50

by bigcardsfan5 on Feb 7, 2006 2:55 PM EST reply actions

first time i've posted here

So I've been reading here for a while but this is my first post. Anyway.. here's my projections.

ba: .273
obp: .321
slg: .374
hr: 12
rbi: 71
runs: 52

by amettrick on Feb 7, 2006 3:02 PM EST reply actions

Off topic but....

just thought I would share something from over at espn.com

St. Louis Cardinals
In 2004, the Cardinals went to the World Series. Last year, they got as far as the NLCS. Sensing a pattern here?

Despite moving into a new stadium, the Cards have refused to increase their budget, causing them to lose a number of free agents, including outfielder Reggie Sanders and second baseman Mark Grudzielanek. Larry Bigbie and Junior Spivey, their respective replacements, can hardly be considered upgrades. Starter Matt Morris left for San Francisco, leaving a significant hole in the rotation, and adding Braden Looper to the bullpen may not be such a positive move.

Of course, it helps that the Astros -- the Cards' opponent in each of the last two Octobers -- haven't gotten better, either. But the Cubs have, and the Milwaukee Brewers may not be far behind.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2317993

Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Feb 7, 2006 3:33 PM EST reply actions

I saw this too

The pattern I sense is playoffs in four of the last five, just missing the one time we didn't make it. What I also sense is more playoff series wins than ANYONE in the last five years. Sean McAdams couldn't hold half of our jocks when it comes to intelligent baseball discussion.

Brett S.

by bschulte on Feb 7, 2006 10:16 PM EST up reply actions

I wasn't agreeing...

with him at all. I think it is a load of crap too. Last year everyone said Eck and Grudz weren't going to be anything, and I'd think we all would agree that turned out more than ok. I trust Walt and LaRussa to field a competitive team.

Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Feb 8, 2006 10:55 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I know

Just seeing that again made me angry. I'm not sure why ESPN/BP always tend to write the Cardinals off. I guess it has to do with selling the game. Controversy sells. Telling people that the same team is going to be on top doesn't.

Brett S.

by bschulte on Feb 8, 2006 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

Yadi

i think yadi will make gradual improvement. He just looks like a better hitter than Matheny, not that that's saying much.

Batting .265
OBP .310
slugging .385
Homers 14
RBIs 65
Runs 50

by doctorno on Feb 7, 2006 3:52 PM EST reply actions

Yadi

AVG: .274
OBP: .321
SLG: .378
HR: 14
RBI: 64
R: 44

by Laura on Feb 7, 2006 3:56 PM EST reply actions

here you go

AVG: .264
OBP: .330
SLG: .369
HR: 10
RBI: 62
R: 47

by montalban on Feb 7, 2006 5:01 PM EST reply actions

Yadi 2006

BA .273
OBP .320
SP .390
HR 12
RBI 70
R 48

by madridbend on Feb 7, 2006 5:16 PM EST reply actions

He's already the best c in the NL

His bat is going to start to show it this year. If we could only get him around 3rd and home in less than a day and a half.

BA .277
OBP .323
SLG .402
HR 12
RBI 59
R 48

by chuckb on Feb 7, 2006 5:58 PM EST reply actions

Gedman!

Second most comparable by age!
At last, he has returned!

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Feb 7, 2006 6:17 PM EST reply actions

Molina

.270 avg
.310 obp
.380 slg
13 homers
50 rbi
40 runs

by azruavatar on Feb 7, 2006 6:22 PM EST reply actions

Yady

I'm optimistic. Second year, no extreme beginning of season slump, no serious injury, therefore:

BA : .270
OBP: .325
Slg: .400
HR: 14
RBI: 60
Runs: 50

by llcolt on Feb 7, 2006 8:16 PM EST reply actions

Yadi

avg: .265
obp: .305
slg: .372
hr: 11
rbi: 60
runs: 50

He's definetly capable of better; barring injury he should't do much worse than this line. As TLR has said, "He's hit in every league."

Comparing his numbers to older brother Jose's shows some similarities. Yadi's numbers are only slightly better now. Since he's been widely touted as the best Molina (both offensively and defensively) I think Jose's numbers deserve a glance.

by stash3630 on Feb 7, 2006 9:37 PM EST reply actions