Predictions(2005 version)

by jroman on Feb 2, 2006 11:52 AM EST Comment 1 comment

Here's the numbers from last years Diamond Mind projections vs. what actually happened. I only did the difference in Wins because Losses would be the same and I don't have the time to do Runs For, Runs Against. But maybe I'll do it on my lunch break.
Its very insteresting how the Easts (AL and NL) and both very accurate and the AL Central is just a mess.
(bah! sorry for the bad formatting)

EAST W diff
x-NY Yankees    2
y-Boston    1
Toronto    7
Baltimore    6
Tampa Bay    1

CENTRAL    W diff
*-Chicago Sox    20
Cleveland    14
Minnesota    6
Detroit    8
Kansas City    11

WEST    W diff
x-LA Angels    11
Oakland        3
Texas    1
Seattle    14

EAST    W diff
x-Atlanta    4
Philadelphia    2
NY Mets        1
Florida    1
Washington    2

CENTRAL    W diff
*-St. Louis    3
y-Houston    12
Milwaukee    11
Chicago Cubs    4
Cincinnati    1
Pittsburgh    5

WEST    W diff
x-San Diego    1
Arizona    9
San Francisco    13
LA Dodgers    19
Colorado    2

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i think this is pretty impressive

the diamond mind sims were within 3 games of the actual win total --- pretty much a random diff'nce --- for 13 of 30 teams. i doubt any sportswriter pundit or sabermatrician did as well.

and dm correctly called some outcomes that weren't readily apparent at the beginning of the year. think back to last spring --- how many forecasters had oakland finishing with more wins than the marlins and cubs? how many had the nationals as a .500 team?

among the teams diamond mind badly misjudged, we can immediately discount the giants, because the DM sims assumed barry bonds would be playing. it was wrong on both houston and the white sox, but then so was ev'ybody else; nobody had either of those teams in the series this time last year.

by lboros on Feb 2, 2006 4:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs