Beware the Brew Crew?

by erik on Dec 31, 2006 11:18 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

Nope, no baby yet. We're trying to convince junior that it's fun out here, but he's in Tahiti type temperatures with an all you can eat buffet, and we're in Iowa and it's winter. No wonder he's staying put for now.

This morning I was thinking about if there was a team in the division that could challenge the Cardinals, and it just might be the Brewers, led by a very solid pitching staff. Here is their last season's ERA+ numbers-

Ben Sheets- ERA+ +118
Chris Capuano- +112
Soup- +108
David Bush- +102
Claudio Vargas- +99

Ben Sheets is capable of better then that, as demonstrated by his FIP (fielding indeptendent ERA) of 2.47. If dude could ever stay healthy, he'd be a top Cy Young contender. Bush walked less then 2 batters per nine innings, while striking out 7.5 per 9. Capuano cut his walk rate almost in half last season and was the ace of the staff. And then there is Suppan, who we all know is quite capable of putting together strings of solid starts.

Then there is their lineup. They had trouble scoring runs last season, but they underperformed most's expectations, and were bit with the injury bug.

Brady Clark OPS+ +77/Anthony Gwynn +51
Rickie Weeks +97
Bill Hall +126
Prince Fielder +111
Geoff Jenkins +102
Corey Koskie +111
Johnny Estrada +91
J.J. Hardy +76

Ok, so it's not the best lineup, but Jenkins had a bad year by his standards. Fielder should take another step forward this season. Ryan Braun, one of the more regarded prospects in the game, may be ready for his close up some time mid season. Weeks and Hardy spent lots of time on the DL last year, but both were highly regarded prospects not long ago and are expected to be healthy. If this lineup performs up to their abilities, they'll score their fair share of runs. Add that to what could be one of the more solid pitching rotations in the game, a dominant closer, and this team could finally be ready to make some noise.

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Brew crew

I'm not sure what to think of the Brewers. They have been a joke for soooo long. I remember the promise of the 2001 Brewers. IF of Sexson, Belliard, Loretta, and Jose Hernandez, OF of Jenkins and Burnitz. Brought in Jeffrey Hammonds for big money. Rotation of Jeff D'Amico, Jamey Wright, Jimmy Haynes, and young Ben Sheets. Ruben Quevado was brought over from the Cubs. Brewers had a deep bullpen in those years too but some how finished 68-94.

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Dec 31, 2006 11:59 AM EST reply actions

This team will be competitive

I still think they'll be a notch below the Cards but they'll be good. I'm surprised some of their OPS's are as good as they are (Koskie, Clark in particular). Plus, I think Corey Hart will spend a lot time in their OF. Suppan will fall off some b/c their defense isn't very good. But they've got the makings of a pretty good team. I'm not sold on their pen or their defense but you're dead on about Sheets. If he's healthy, he's as good as they come.

by chuckb on Dec 31, 2006 12:01 PM EST reply actions

I'm not scared of the Brewers...

not one bit...(sorry about above)...
Sheets will get injured...again..
They don't have an "ace" without Sheets, and their lineup...
Who's their best hitter???
Prince Fielder??? Bill Hall???
SOOOOOO scary
Brew Crew ain't got nothin on dem redbirds

BLaw.

by Dttl89 on Dec 31, 2006 12:05 PM EST reply actions

Scary

Prince Fielder doesn't scare you? He scares me. That guy will be a monster bat, better than his old man.

by Baseball addict on Dec 31, 2006 8:43 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah...ummm

actually, Prince didn't prove much to me in his first year. There was a ton of hype about how great he would be, and I just didn't see it this season. He doesnt seem to be the big power threat he's made out to be.

BLaw.

by Dttl89 on Jan 1, 2007 8:58 AM EST up reply actions

They are our biggest challenge

They are very solid and have depth. They also have extra outfielders to trade for more keys...

Jenkins
Mench
Hart
Gross
Clark
Hall (stupid to play him in the outfield, but that's their plan)

Villanueva is their 6th starter so they have a little depth there also.

Their biggest bane continues to be their defense. Every single one of their pitchers has underperformed their FIP. Suppan will have a huge knock in his ERA in front of all their infield holes.

They are up and coming, for sure and have a cpl years of window before most of their core hits abry/free agency. They have a chance to draw fans and really turn their franchise around.

I have seen more than one saber article stating Bush's closest comp might just be Carpenter. His peripherals are scary and he has a very similar curve. He's also further advanced at his age than Carp was.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/09/bushs_league.php

by RedbirdRay on Dec 31, 2006 12:14 PM EST reply actions

Also

Their bullpen sucks. Although that trade for Cordero was pure genius. That guy is the most underrated closer in baseball.

We should trade them bullpen help for JEnkins.

by RedbirdRay on Dec 31, 2006 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

Their bullpen

doesn't look great on paper, but I think the Brewers pen could pull it together in '07. Cordero is a top closer, the best in our division (including Lidge). Behind him you have more power arms behind him in Aquino, Turnbow (although he went nuts last year), Capellan, and possibly Dennis Sarfate. Shouse is a good LH specialist, but they probably need another lefty in that pen. They've got some depth and potential there, we'll see if they live up to it.

by Baseball addict on Dec 31, 2006 9:00 PM EST up reply actions

Sounds

like a Brewers fan to me.

If the Brewers win the Central, I'll eat my hat.

by themang on Jan 1, 2007 3:57 AM EST up reply actions

Seriously though

I think the Brewers could be good, but there's just too many question marks. The bullpen is no good and they'll need a huge year out of Suppan since it's quite likely that Sheets won't make it through a full season. Plus, will Bill Hall continue his tear? Will Fielder finally live up to his billing? Will anybody else step up?

It's a good story, but this division will come down to the Cards and the Cubs this year.

by themang on Jan 1, 2007 4:04 AM EST up reply actions

just consider the Tigers

of last year. no superstars, but solid all around. the brewers certainly don't have detroits defense, nor do they have their bullpen. but the lineups and pitching staff are somewhat comparable

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2006.shtml

Future Redbirds

by erik on Dec 31, 2006 12:15 PM EST reply actions

Soup = Rogers?

I just don't see this. The brewers have not built up the stable of arms any where near as deep as the Tigers. I'll take a healthy Sheets and Capuano to match up against the tigers, but Bush, Suppan, and Vargas are a step below besides that Sheets is the only home grown name. I think the Tigers parallel is a bit much, but I do like the depth they have brought in. If they compete, it will be largely because of this rotation but it won't overcome the defense, bullpen, and mediocre offense.

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Jan 1, 2007 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

I thought they would be a threat last year

This year they should be even better. Seems to me, however, that Ben Sheets has never really measured up to his promise. And the demise of Turnbo hit them hard. If those two pitchers come back strong, they could win the division. Suppan should be a stabilizing force.

by Fred McTaggart on Dec 31, 2006 12:23 PM EST reply actions

As I've stated before,

these are not the Brewers of Bud Selig anymore, and they are no longer the laughingstock of baseball. Doug Melvin and Ned Yost are a good fit to get this team over the hump. Now all they have to do is execute...

by cardsrul on Dec 31, 2006 12:43 PM EST reply actions

i thought the brewers

would challenge last year, but injuries killed them. they've addressed some weaknesses and added some depth; they look pretty dangerous to me, much more so than any other nl central contender.

among their many assets, the brewers have a great scout in lee thomas, who was the cards' director of player development in the 1980s (his products included tommy herr, danny cox, vince coleman, todd worrell, terry pendleton, ricky horton, and andy van slyke among many others) and the general manager of the philadelphia phillies in 1993, when they won their last NL pennant.

thomas does for the brewers what jim leyland did for the cardinals during the early 2000s --- he's an ace talent evaluator.

by lboros on Dec 31, 2006 1:53 PM EST reply actions

added depth?

The big offseason signings so far this year were Suppan and Counsell. Suppan replaces the departed Doug Davis who was shipped to Arizona for Vargas who replaces Eveland/Ohka. Counsell replaces Cirillo. Do any of these moves make them much better? Carlos Lee is also gone from last year replaced offensively by Nix/Mench. I agree the Brewers were bit hard by injuries and some of the younger players could step forward but more isn't necessarily better. Are Estrada and Cordero really big difference makers?

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Jan 1, 2007 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

yes

Cordero is a rather big difference maker, especially considering the alternatives. Don't forget Corey Hart and Gabe Gross add to their outfield depth. Davis was on a downtrend, where Soup has been a reliable pitcher for how many seasons running now?

All I'm saying is that if they stay healthy, they can suprise some people. How many of us foresaw the Tigers' breakout last season?

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 1, 2007 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

No doubt...

the Brew Crew are the scariest competition in the NL Central this year.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 31, 2006 2:00 PM EST reply actions

out of curiosity

where are the reds? reason is is weren't they right in step with us in 06? did they fall off that much?

Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 31, 2006 2:14 PM EST reply actions

They might improve, they might regress

I think the NL central will be a wild ride in 2007...

by Valatan on Dec 31, 2006 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

How could they possibly improve?

They played over their heads thanks in part to Phillips and Arroyo, Krivsky gutted the team at the deadline, then they've failed to do much of anything this winter, and Griffey is injured again.

Don't they have to be a lock for 90 losses?

Acquire Randy Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 31, 2006 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

Brew Crew

As I said a few days ago, I think they are the best team in the central. In fact, I think they are one of the better clubs in the league and they will surprise a lot of people.

He called fate's bluff on a cool New York night, October 19th, 2006.

by Number47 on Dec 31, 2006 3:23 PM EST reply actions

Last season ...

I thought they had a chance in 2006 (Notice the title?). I think the injuries really destabilized the rotation and the team. If everybody remains somewhat healthy in 2007, watch out, Redbirds.

Granted, I'm a Cards fan through and through, but I'd like to see the Brewers succeed more than they have. It seems to me they have a collection of young exciting players worth rooting for, and the organization has been prudently patient in its rebuilding. Maybe the Cards can win the division, and the Brew Crew can win the wild card?

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Dec 31, 2006 3:35 PM EST reply actions

Heh...

You echoed my sentiments quite well. I love the
Cardinals, but a small part of me is rooting for
the Brewers to take a wild card spot. It's neat
to see their player developement come to fruition.
Defense is an issue still for them though. I've
heard that even Braun - while a fantastic hitting
prospect - still has plenty to do on the defensive
end of things.

by lostraven on Dec 31, 2006 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

baby

erik,

here's hoping your baby is born today so that you can get the tax benefits in 2006! it could save you over $2000 with today's tax laws. i wish you and your wife well.

happy 2007

"You can't worry if it's cold; you can't worry if it's hot; you only worry if you get sick. Because then if you don't get well, you die." Joaquin Andujar

by Red State Redbird on Dec 31, 2006 3:59 PM EST reply actions

thnx RSR

though something would have to happen fast for that now to happen.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Dec 31, 2006 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

the brewers don't scare me

marsupials scare me

because there fast....

sorry had to its a bit from Kevin Pollack doing Christopher Walken great impersionation if you havent heard it

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Dec 31, 2006 4:50 PM EST reply actions

LOL...

Pollack does the best Christopher Walken, doesn't he?

by cardsrul on Dec 31, 2006 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

hmmm..

please elaborate, possibly with a youtube link if possible

by Fitz on Dec 31, 2006 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

marsupials

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVQvhOS5-VE

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Dec 31, 2006 9:38 PM EST up reply actions

a full season of Ben Sheets

and getting Brady-I-shouldn't-leadoff-Clark on the bench as a 4th outfielder would help. Why they are considering putting Bill Hall in LF(!) is beyond me when he could replace Clark with a marginal defensive dropoff but a huge offensive gain.

But this seems to be a tune I've heard whistled before. If Prior can stay healthy then the Cubs will contend. I just can't worry about either the Brewers or the Cubs until they show their core players (esp. pitchers) can remain healthy. Of course, once that happens, it may be too late for us to do anything but watch...

by azruavatar on Dec 31, 2006 6:24 PM EST reply actions

The Brew Crew???

Who's afraid of them? Plus why are they running down the Cardnials? As far as I know both of us will be trying to run down the 300 million dollar machine. The best offence...Cubs. Best pitching staff...Cubs. Yes I said best pitching staff, Big Z, Lilly ,and Miller isn't bad at all. Not to mention if they ever get healty Prior and Wood. Throw in D-Lee and your looking at the best team in the NL.

O yah baby WORLD CHAMPS!!!

by gibbyfan on Dec 31, 2006 7:20 PM EST reply actions

FINALLY

someone agrees with me...

yesssssssssssssssssssss

I still hate those bastards and they will lose everygame

heres to a 0-162 season for the 07 Cubs

BLaw.

by Dttl89 on Dec 31, 2006 8:24 PM EST up reply actions

Cubs?

They have one great pitcher, one average and then 3 question marks. Not much diffrent than us.

On offense they have a few people that can slug but few that ever get on base. They may lead the division in solo HRs though.

by DriverZn on Dec 31, 2006 8:44 PM EST up reply actions

Wade Miller

sucks.

by Baseball addict on Dec 31, 2006 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

Cubs

suck.

by Fitz on Jan 1, 2007 6:44 PM EST up reply actions

Bill Clark

Is the most underrated player in the division, they have always had the potential to win. They could break out this season, but are more likely to flop again.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Dec 31, 2006 7:22 PM EST reply actions

Good ol Bill Clark...

poor guy doesnt even exist....
He's THAT bad...

Sometimes, I wish Ankiel would just dissapear...Just like Bill Clark did...

BLaw.

by Dttl89 on Dec 31, 2006 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

Bill Hall

And now that I've merged two different players' names from the Brewers' roster, I will reume my boring night of drinking and stop trying to make sense.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Dec 31, 2006 10:19 PM EST up reply actions

better pitching right now than the Cardinals

on paper that is. we do not know who our 5th starter is. and what to expect from Wells, Reyes and Adam. if we get Weaver and a healthy Mulder to go with the 3 unknows, our pitching will be fine and should be better than the brewers. and if they loose some of their starters to injury like they have in the past, they will fall back to the middle of the central. i think their lineup is a lot like chicagos. lots of home run power. but not much else. should be a second place team in the central. of course espn will pick the cubs as central and WS champs. thus guaranting them another 90-100 loss year.

we should be afraid of the brewers. very afraid. if they put it all together and stay healthy, they are almost as good as the Cardinals. now that's a scary thought. I will say our tag team of Pujols and Carp are so much better than any pitcher or position player on the brewers squad. that right there gives us the edge over them. may GOD have mercy on the Cardinals if they loose one of those guys for any length on time in 07.

Happy New Year VEB!

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD. My Blog: And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Dec 31, 2006 7:35 PM EST reply actions

Ahhh. Happy New Year!! WS Champs.

Now that's a beautiful reality. I wish all health and happiness in the new year. This site provides much added joy, and for that I'm very grateful.

by Yadier on Jan 1, 2007 1:27 AM EST reply actions

run differential

The Brewers look pretty good on paper, but it's hard to ignore that they were -103 in runs scored/allowed last year. Their pythag record was one game better than worst in the NL. They have a lot of ground to make up to become a contender.

If Sheets stays healthy, they should have a very good and deep rotation. The bullpen was terrible, but should improve. The defense was terrible and may not improve. The offense could go either way. They lost Lee and need the young guys to keep improving. Too many Ks and not enough baserunners.

by Speedy G on Jan 1, 2007 11:19 PM EST reply actions