Johnson for Johnson?
For Randy Johnson the Yankees supposedly want a major league talent, some prospects, and a willingness to pay his entire $16mm salary for 2007. Is it worth it?
Hell yes... Forget the 5.00 era, his "peripherals" were very good last year: less than a hit/inning, almost 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, 1.24 WHIP in the AL East.
Baseballthinkfactory guy has him down for 223 innings in '07 with a 3.71 era and 196 strikeouts. That's assuming he'll be in the American League too.
He has a no-trade, so he'll want an extension. 2 years/$25mm?
Rumor has it the Padres are offering a package around Scott Linebrink, but it seems to me the Yanks could better use a Lefty reliever on his way up instead of down. Linebrink has appeared in 219 games over the past 3 years, and it started to show a bit in '06.
Is Cashman smart enough to take Tyler Johnson, Jaime Garcia, and a minor prospect for the Unit? I'm assuming he flat out doesn't want Looper. I'm also assuming we couldn't give up two bullpen pieces (say TJ and Kinney) and have Wainwright stay in the rotation. A rotation of Carp-Unit-Reyes-Wainwright-Wells could be stellar, and I wouldn't feel terrible about having Rincon/Flores/Camp Invitee to compete for the LOOGY role. Supposedly Kinney can get a lefty out as well.
Get it done Walt!
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no way!!!!
Wow...
Less than 24 hours...
How is a guy that posts 200+ innings with a 1.24 WHIP and a great K:BB ratio "washed up". He's not Randy Johnson in his prime, but he's still pretty good.
I though people were going to laugh at me for suggesting Cashman would accept the deal...
I'm not sure the deal is that far off
That being said, no thanks. RJ is definitely in decline and just had back surgery. He could simply 'lose' it at any time, imo. He's still appears to have a #3-4's peripherals and perhaps even better than that, but he's 43 and that's beyond acceptably old for a pitcher. With his balky back...well I just wouldn't really want to take on that contract.
Also, from what I've read Garcia could get fast tracked to the majors. He could be a nice surprise for the rotation as early as next year.
It's a long way...
Johnson compares pretty well with Schmidt:
(RJ to Schmidt)
WHIP 1.24 to 1.26
HRs/9 1.23 to .88
K:BB 2.87 to 2.25
K/9 7.55 to 7.59
opp. BAA .250 to .238
opp. OBP .309 to .310
opp. Slg .416 to .379
ERA 5.00 to 3.59
RJ is right with Schmidt everywhere except the ERA... What explains it? The home runs don't help, but keep in mind Yankee stadium slightly inflated home run totals while the Giants park suppressed more than any other park in the majors.
Also, the Yankee defense is abysmal (yes I know Jeter has won a GG), while the Giants is decent.
The back issue and his age are obviously sources of concern, but this man is a freak of nature. He's fought through it so far and performed, imo, at a Schmidt-like level. Duncan might be able to help with the slider and, really, if he turned out to be totally useless, a 2yr/$28mm contract wouldn't strangle the franchise that bad.
He might be the last impact player out there to be had. Imagine his ZIPS projection replacing Looper or Thompson who would likely struggle to make bench. That'd be worth 4-5 wins right there.
Another reason for the high ERA...
It's not the ERA that scares me
I, personally, would agree that a 2/28 contract shouldn't strap the organization but the way the Looper and Encarnacion contracts are viewed, imagine if RJ doesn't bounce back. I still don't believe we will see Looper in the rotation regardless of what the front office says but if that is the case, RJ could very well be a 4-5 win improvement.
I don't really like projection systems when it comes to pitchers like Clemens and Johnson. My understanding is that the projections relies heavily on comparables. Any anamolous pitcher, see Wang, can be hard for the system to cope with. Pitchers that old, and relatively anamolous to this era in their continued dominance, make things like PECOTA and ZIPs go crazy. How can you project a decline rate for a 43yr old pitcher? His peripherals indicate he's better than his 5 ERA but I don't buy into the 3 ERA projections for a moment.
And there's a 10 year gap between Schmidt and Johnson...that's a pretty significant difference.
one other minor quibble
I not trying to single you out but this pervasive thought in Cardinal Nation that Duncan can fix all ills is a real misconception. He's a great pitching coach but not everything is fixable. If his back was bothering him, it could have easily affected his delivery in a way that reduced the break on his slider. (or it could be that a 43 year old slider just gets worn out...)
technically
I think
Why the HELL
as Borat would say...."....PauseNOT"
I would quit being a Cardinal fan...period...
I feel better now...
none of his peripherals point toward
I don't want him either but just making inflammatory statements and calling him 'The Big Suckly Ugly Unit' shows nothing but a lack of creativity in name calling.
RJ
by gopher100 on Dec 26, 2006 8:34 PM EST reply actions
Hey
Johnson's no normal 43 year old...
You should be supporting your fellow senior citizens...
HE IS A FREAK
by BRINGBACKWILSON on Dec 27, 2006 12:11 AM EST reply actions
OKAY
Yes he's on the decline...
The only reason people think he sucks is b/c he's being compared to Randy Johnson at his peak. No one else has to live up to that. If they did, they'd suck too. If Pujols slugged .525 with 30 home runs would he be worthless?
Three points to make for you aet:
- It ain't our money, it ain't your money, it's DeWitt's money and he isn't going to share whatever doesn't get spent this offseason. The price of beer isn't coming down.
- When Braden Looper is a prospective starter on your team, there's a need.
- Old farts winning games are more enjoyable to watch than young players losing.
Um
Players like Johnson are made for teams like the Yankees, teams that can pay a player to decline.
Ok...
Deadline trade targets tend to be guys that haven't reached free agency yet, and even the Abreus and McGwires come in at a reasonable price b/c you pay a pro-rated salary. Extra salary on the books for 2007 won't prevent picking up a Rolen or McGwire.
For '08, yes, it would be a bummer to have $12mm on the books for a useless RJ if he turns out to be a bust, but it's only one year and the Cards have no other bad contracts.
Don't worry,
The thing is that Walt rarely wants to play the rental role with big names. (e.g. Rolen, Walker, McGwire). When trading for a superstar player, our ownership likes to try and keep them around. Therefore, we want to keep money around, and if like you suggested, we need to add an extra year on for Johnson, then that makes the possibility of resigning someone who we trade for less and less likely.
Once money is spent, it is spent, and believe it or not, the Cardinals are on a limit. Johnson's salary is the type that would push that limit possibly top it out. With an already unpredictable team like we have right now, we don't want to have zero spending room midseason.
Laughable
by Baseball addict on Dec 27, 2006 3:30 AM EST reply actions
Awful idea...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 27, 2006 1:57 PM EST reply actions
How would trading away Tyler Johnson
He's good, I'm glad we had him, but if Randy Johnson returns, at all, to form, then we're way ahead on the deal. The money is probably too much, but it's a reasonable thought.
RJ NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
by BRINGBACKWILSON on Dec 28, 2006 4:53 AM EST reply actions
I'd do it
The wild Card is Jaime Garcia might be a very good prospect. The other better person to trade for IMO is John Smoltz. I would trade Wainer straight up for Smoltz as well! (I know I know I am in the minority). Rasmus straight up for Smoltz would be another deal I would do without hesitation (although I am sure the Braves would want more).
We are not going youth movement. If we were, no way I would do this deal, but we are not (or we wouldn't have signed Kip Wells and tried to sign S Schmidt and Pettite).
How about this?!
for
Wainright, Rasmus, and Pick a Prospect
We get the #2 and #3 starters we are looking for, the Braves get the solid youth they are looking for (and of course Wainright and Rasmus are hometown boys which would be highly marketable in the ATL). The trade would potentially be very beneficial for both teams. Gives us a solid chance at another WS run, puts Braves in a position to be solid again by 2008 or 2009!
Lets do it!
PS - All of you blow up our minor league system guys - when is the last time we traded a real impact prospect (Haren wasn't a prospect when he was traded, he was a known entity)? Wainer would be tough to give up, but for Smoltz,,,,I have to believe over the next few years the percentages would be in our favor, but close enough the Braves would consider doing the deal.
For cripes sake...
The article cited goes on to say the Yanks demands will likely be too high for Arizona. Absurd! Maybe Walt could get away with subbing Hawksworth for Garcia...
As for trading Wainwright for Smoltz... It's interesting... Smoltz will likely be better in '07, but will the marginal improvement from AW to Smoltz will be as great as Looper to Johnson?
In the long term
by Baseball addict on Dec 29, 2006 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
It's almost over...
Prediction for June 1: Crisis in the Cardinal rotation, recriminations over Kip Wells, mass denial on this board, everyone claiming they knew things would end badly, and RJ cruising along with a 3.8 era and a bunch of Ks...

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