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Around SBN: Vinny Magalhaes Claims Ebay Sale of M-1 Challenge Belt

Johnson for Johnson?

For Randy Johnson the Yankees supposedly want a major league talent, some prospects, and a willingness to pay his entire $16mm salary for 2007. Is it worth it?

Hell yes... Forget the 5.00 era, his "peripherals" were very good last year: less than a hit/inning, almost 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, 1.24 WHIP in the AL East.

Baseballthinkfactory guy has him down for 223 innings in '07 with a 3.71 era and 196 strikeouts. That's assuming he'll be in the American League too.

He has a no-trade, so he'll want an extension. 2 years/$25mm?

Rumor has it the Padres are offering a package around Scott Linebrink, but it seems to me the Yanks could better use a Lefty reliever on his way up instead of down. Linebrink has appeared in 219 games over the past 3 years, and it started to show a bit in '06.

Is Cashman smart enough to take Tyler Johnson, Jaime Garcia, and a minor prospect for the Unit? I'm assuming he flat out doesn't want Looper. I'm also assuming we couldn't give up two bullpen pieces (say TJ and Kinney) and have Wainwright stay in the rotation. A rotation of Carp-Unit-Reyes-Wainwright-Wells could  be stellar, and I wouldn't feel terrible about having Rincon/Flores/Camp Invitee to compete for the LOOGY role. Supposedly Kinney can get a lefty out as well.

Get it done Walt!

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no way!!!!
THere is no point to do that trade.  The Units washed up and wouldn't make a difference on wether or not the cards are making a playoff push or not. I would rather have naverson be in the rotation than the unit.

by CardsFan22 on Dec 26, 2006 11:19 AM EST reply actions  

Wow...
it took less than 24 hours for someone to "suggest" the Cards go after RJ. I think that's a record...

by cardsrul on Dec 26, 2006 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

Less than 24 hours...
since when? The rumor came out?

How is a guy that posts 200+ innings with a 1.24 WHIP and a great K:BB ratio "washed up". He's not Randy Johnson in his prime, but he's still pretty good.

I though people were going to laugh at me for suggesting Cashman would accept the deal...

Acquire Jason Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 26, 2006 12:35 PM EST reply actions  

I'm not sure the deal is that far off
what cashman would want.  Maybe someone a little more proven than TJ but anyone willing to take RJ's full contract probably won't have to offer too much in return.

That being said, no thanks.  RJ is definitely in decline and just had back surgery.  He could simply 'lose' it at any time, imo.  He's still appears to have a  #3-4's peripherals and perhaps even better than that, but he's 43 and that's beyond acceptably old for a pitcher.  With his balky back...well I just wouldn't really want to take on that contract.

Also, from what I've read Garcia could get fast tracked to the majors.  He could be a nice surprise for the rotation as early as next year.

by azruavatar on Dec 26, 2006 12:59 PM EST reply actions  

It's a long way...
from the Florida State League to the National League... Let's see how Garcia handles Double-A.

Johnson compares pretty well with Schmidt:
(RJ to Schmidt)

WHIP        1.24 to 1.26
HRs/9       1.23 to .88
K:BB        2.87 to 2.25
K/9         7.55 to 7.59
opp. BAA    .250 to .238
opp. OBP    .309 to .310
opp. Slg    .416 to .379
ERA         5.00 to 3.59

RJ is right with Schmidt everywhere except the ERA... What explains it? The home runs don't help, but keep in mind Yankee stadium slightly inflated home run totals while the Giants park suppressed more than any other park in the majors.

Also, the Yankee defense is abysmal (yes I know Jeter has won a GG), while the Giants is decent.

The back issue and his age are obviously sources of concern, but this man is a freak of nature. He's fought through it so far and performed, imo, at a Schmidt-like level. Duncan might be able to help with the slider and, really, if he turned out to be totally useless, a 2yr/$28mm contract wouldn't strangle the franchise that bad.

He might be the last impact player out there to be had. Imagine his ZIPS projection replacing Looper or Thompson who would likely struggle to make bench. That'd be worth 4-5 wins right there.

Acquire Jason Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 26, 2006 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Another reason for the high ERA...
as Nate Silver points out, his BABIP with runners on was .369 vs .239 with the bases empty...
Acquire Randy Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 26, 2006 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

It's not the ERA that scares me
His home rate has jumped for the last two years and he's getting fewer groundballs.  A switch back to the NL might help but then he has to bat and run the bases again.  I read Silver's short article concerning some odd splits but I still think RJ is declining.

I, personally, would agree that a 2/28 contract shouldn't strap the organization but the way the Looper and Encarnacion contracts are viewed, imagine if RJ doesn't bounce back.  I still don't believe we will see Looper in the rotation regardless of what the front office says but if that is the case, RJ could very well be a 4-5 win improvement.

I don't really like projection systems when it comes to pitchers like Clemens and Johnson.  My understanding is that the projections relies heavily on comparables.  Any anamolous pitcher, see Wang, can be hard for the system to cope with. Pitchers that old, and relatively anamolous to this era in their continued dominance, make things like PECOTA and ZIPs go crazy.  How can you project a decline rate for a 43yr old pitcher?  His peripherals indicate he's better than his 5 ERA but I don't buy into the 3 ERA projections for a moment.

And there's a 10 year gap between Schmidt and Johnson...that's a pretty significant difference.

by azruavatar on Dec 26, 2006 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

one other minor quibble
I really don't think that there is anything for Duncan to 'fix'.  RJ is a HoF pitcher who has been around for a long time.  Any mechanical issues were probably due to injury.  I doubt he's wandering about stumped as to why his slider lost it's bite.

I not trying to single you out but this pervasive thought in Cardinal Nation that Duncan can fix all ills is a real misconception.  He's a great pitching coach but not everything is fixable. If his back was bothering him, it could have easily affected his delivery in a way that reduced the break on his slider. (or it could be that a 43 year old slider just gets worn out...)

by azruavatar on Dec 26, 2006 10:18 PM EST up reply actions  

technically
that's four words or two words and a number...;)
Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 26, 2006 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I think
it would take Johnson, Hawksworth, and Garcia.  I might be wrong but I think he's still got something left and teams will line up at a chance at RJ.  He's worth having but I'm not sure he's worth what it would do to our farm system.  Plus, I think other teams have more than what we have but Walt ought to kick the tires on him!

by chuckb on Dec 26, 2006 4:18 PM EST reply actions  

Why the HELL
would we want The Big Sucky Ugly Unit?  Let's pay $16 mil for a guy who's going to have a 5.00^ ERA...

as Borat would say...."....PauseNOT"
I would quit being a Cardinal fan...period...
I feel better now...  

Meche.

by Dttl89 on Dec 26, 2006 8:26 PM EST reply actions  

none of his peripherals point toward
a 5.00^ ERA.  What makes you think he'll have one that high?  

I don't want him either but just making inflammatory statements and calling him 'The Big Suckly Ugly Unit' shows nothing but a lack of creativity in name calling.

by azruavatar on Dec 26, 2006 10:18 PM EST up reply actions  

RJ
I dont think hes done, but NO WAY Im taking that salary for his age and he is coming off of injury.

by gopher100 on Dec 26, 2006 8:34 PM EST reply actions  

Hey
I'm only 54 and could probably be good for 5 or 6 pitches a couple games a week; why not sign me instead? It'd be a lot cheaper; and more sane...

by cardsrul on Dec 26, 2006 8:49 PM EST reply actions  

Johnson's no normal 43 year old...
The man is a freak! Get him a massage therapist and some cortisone, he'll be good to go.

You should be supporting your fellow senior citizens...

Acquire Randy Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 26, 2006 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

HE IS A FREAK
but his pitching days are over
SWH

by BRINGBACKWILSON on Dec 27, 2006 12:11 AM EST reply actions  

OKAY
Enough already. Let's just save our money for the trade deadline when GOOD NON-WASHED UP players are on the market again. Johnson is on the decline, and even if you don't believe he is, the facts are there: he's 43. Power arms don't last much longer than that. Let's save our money! Walt's got a good plan, and we should go with it. There is not need for Randy. He will only hinder our youth movement that is (finally) beginning!
Acquire Barry Zito!

by aet15 on Dec 27, 2006 12:49 AM EST reply actions  

Yes he's on the decline...
but he's declining from the baseball equivalent of Mt. Everest. He could continue to decline for the next two years and still be a very good pitcher who wins us a bunch of games.

The only reason people think he sucks is b/c he's being compared to Randy Johnson at his peak. No one else has to live up to that. If they did, they'd suck too. If Pujols slugged .525 with 30 home runs would he be worthless?

Three points to make for you aet:

  1. It ain't our money, it ain't your money, it's DeWitt's money and he isn't going to share whatever doesn't get spent this offseason. The price of beer isn't coming down.
  2. When Braden Looper is a prospective starter on your team, there's a need.
  3. Old farts winning games are more enjoyable to watch than young players losing.
Come on people, think rationally about this!
Acquire Randy Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 27, 2006 9:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Um
Well, actually the money saved on Johnson will be spent on someone else. That was my point. The organization is willing to spend $100 mil, and if Johnson fills that up, they won't be willing to spend more. If the money isn't spent now, we will actually be able to make a move this trading deadline and not be restricted to deals like Luna for Belliard. We'll hopefully be able to bring in another Rolen or McGwire type player, but hopefully being a pitcher.

Players like Johnson are made for teams like the Yankees, teams that can pay a player to decline.

Acquire Barry Zito!

by aet15 on Dec 27, 2006 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok...
sorry to insinuate you weren't being reasonable. The thing is, there aren't too many more players to spend the money on for '07.

Deadline trade targets tend to be guys that haven't reached free agency yet, and even the Abreus and McGwires come in at a reasonable price b/c you pay a pro-rated salary. Extra salary on the books for 2007 won't prevent picking up a Rolen or McGwire.

For '08, yes, it would be a bummer to have $12mm on the books for a useless RJ if he turns out to be a bust, but it's only one year and the Cards have no other bad contracts.

Acquire Randy Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 27, 2006 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't worry,
No need to apologize. You're just defending your position, which is perfectly reasonable.

The thing is that Walt rarely wants to play the rental role with big names. (e.g. Rolen, Walker, McGwire). When trading for a superstar player, our ownership likes to try and keep them around. Therefore, we want to keep money around, and if like you suggested, we need to add an extra year on for Johnson, then that makes the possibility of resigning someone who we trade for less and less likely.

Once money is spent, it is spent, and believe it or not, the Cardinals are on a limit. Johnson's salary is the type that would push that limit possibly top it out. With an already unpredictable team like we have right now, we don't want to have zero spending room midseason.

Acquire Barry Zito!

by aet15 on Dec 27, 2006 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Laughable
Sure, he had pretty good peripherals last year, but peripherals don't win ballgames.  He still had a 5.00 ERA, gave up 28 HR and still sucked in the playoffs.  And if you look closer his periphs don't look so great anyway.  His K/9 and K/BB ratio in '06 were much worse than in previous years, so there's a bad trend there.  Anyway you look at it, he's on the decline.

by Baseball addict on Dec 27, 2006 3:30 AM EST reply actions  

Awful idea...
why mortgage the future for one year of an aging RJ?
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 27, 2006 1:57 PM EST reply actions  

Two...
he'll require an extension.
Acquire Randy Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 27, 2006 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

How would trading away Tyler Johnson
be "mortgaging the future"?

He's good, I'm glad we had him, but if Randy Johnson returns, at all, to form, then we're way ahead on the deal.  The money is probably too much, but it's a reasonable thought.

by Valatan on Dec 27, 2006 11:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Well
I highly doubt they'll take TJ alone.
Acquire Barry Zito!

by aet15 on Dec 28, 2006 12:21 AM EST up reply actions  

RJ NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
he will go to the dbacks or dodgers some team out west. rj days are over . he will be a average pitcher but not worth 16 million. not that i agree with looper being a starter i think that is going to be a HUGE mistake. but if weaver comes back and mulder signs the cardinals will be very competive and still have the dollars to make the deadline deal to put them over the top. cubs have improved but i still feel the central is very winable for the cardinals
SWH

by BRINGBACKWILSON on Dec 28, 2006 4:53 AM EST reply actions  

I'd do it
I'm with you.  Johnson is the immediate upgrade the Cards need.  Giving up TJ and a few minor league prospects is a small price to pay for RJ.  I love hearing everyone pretend to know more than Bill James and all of the projection systems out there.  RJ is good for at least league average #3 starter for a few more years and possible more.  

The wild Card is Jaime Garcia might be a very good prospect.  The other better person to trade for IMO is John Smoltz.  I would trade Wainer straight up for Smoltz as well!  (I know I know I am in the minority).  Rasmus straight up for Smoltz would be another deal I would do without hesitation (although I am sure the Braves would want more).  

We are not going youth movement.  If we were, no way I would do this deal, but we are not (or we wouldn't have signed Kip Wells and tried to sign S Schmidt and Pettite).

by Lawless on Dec 28, 2006 10:26 AM EST reply actions  

How about this?!
Smoltz, Chuck James

for

Wainright, Rasmus, and Pick a Prospect

We get the #2 and #3 starters we are looking for, the Braves get the solid youth they are looking for (and of course Wainright and Rasmus are hometown boys which would be highly marketable in the ATL).  The trade would potentially be very beneficial for both teams.  Gives us a solid chance at another WS run, puts Braves in a position to be solid again by 2008 or 2009!

Lets do it!

PS - All of you blow up our minor league system guys - when is the last time we traded a real impact prospect (Haren wasn't a prospect when he was traded, he was a known entity)?  Wainer would be tough to give up, but for Smoltz,,,,I have to believe over the next few years the percentages would be in our favor, but close enough the Braves would consider doing the deal.

by Lawless on Dec 28, 2006 10:39 AM EST up reply actions  

For cripes sake...
mlbtraderumors is saying that the Yankees are "demanding" Brandon Medders, and two more minor league pitchers, none of whom are as promising as Garcia. Medders was OK not great last year with the D-Backs... TJ is definitely comparable.

The article cited goes on to say the Yanks demands will likely be too high for Arizona. Absurd! Maybe Walt could get away with subbing Hawksworth for Garcia...

As for trading Wainwright for Smoltz... It's interesting... Smoltz will likely be better in '07, but will the marginal improvement from AW to Smoltz will be as great as Looper to Johnson?

Acquire Randy Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 28, 2006 11:30 AM EST up reply actions  

In the long term
I'd rather have Wainwright than Chuck James.

by Baseball addict on Dec 29, 2006 1:39 AM EST up reply actions  

It's almost over...
Johnson will soon go to Arizona for three so-so prospects...

Prediction for June 1: Crisis in the Cardinal rotation, recriminations over Kip Wells, mass denial on this board, everyone claiming they knew things would end badly, and RJ cruising along with a 3.8 era and a bunch of Ks...

Acquire Randy Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 30, 2006 9:45 AM EST reply actions  

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