minor matters

by lboros on Dec 22, 2006 9:13 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

programming note: i'll be on the road most of next week, with limited internet access. that means a couple of things: first, it's a sure-fire cinch the cardinals will make a blockbuster trade; second, it means the posting will be light between now and the end of the year. i'll have a couple of short posts next week, discussion starters, probably tuesday and thursday; i think Val and Erik will be around for their regular posts (less'n Erik's baby arrives), and a diary or two might end up on the front page to keep things going. so the shop will be open, and if any significant news does break i'll find my way to a broadband portal.

Brock20's diary about the cards' top farmhands got me thinking about the minor-league system. while most of the best prospects are still at A ball or below, there is life at the upper levels of the system; lotta marginal prospects trying to raise their games and upgrade their status. the cards have milked players of that type for a lot of value the last couple of seasons; john rodriguez, josh kinney, and chris duncan all once belonged to the class of so-so triple A players.

this year it may be led by nick stavinoha, who before last season was listed on most of the top-10 prospect lists for organization. he's the latest version of john gall, a college 1st baseman converted into an outfielder. stavi hit .297 in an injury-marred campaign at double A last year but finished strong; in august, fully healed from an early-season ankle injury, he hit .330 / .397 / .652 with 7 hrs. a weak performance in the arizona fall league (.218 / .287 / .308 in 78 at-bats) might keep him a double A to start 2007, but if he gets off to a good start there he will probably advance in short order. stavinoha will be 25 years old in may. his major-league equivalent (MLE) line at springfield last year was 251 / 288 / 372. (for comparison's sake, duncan's MLE two years ago was 239 / 324 / 392.)

former #1 draftee chris lambert may also advance to triple A this year, despite having impressed no one in 41 double A starts. the texas league slugged .460 against him last year, and he walked nearly 5 men a game. but pressure from below may propel lambert upward; jaime garcia and mitchell boggs are due to join an already crowded double A rotation, and there's nobody blocking lambert at triple A. maybe a change of scenery would do him some good; maybe they should convert him into a relief pitcher. his 2006 MLE: a 6.71 era, with 5.9 bb/9 and 2.1 hr/9.

stu pomeranz and/or mike parisi might also advance. both were terrible in the arizona fall league (eras of 9.00 and 7.88, respectively) after so-so years at springfield. pomeranz has been at double A nearly as long as lambert (36 starts) and has had more success, though he's hardly been impressive; he wasn't the same after a july arm injury. parisi does have some strikeout ability, and he was hard on right-handed hitters, though he faded badly in the second half. their MLE era's: pomeranz, 5.76; parisi, 5.63.

the triple A bullpen should be interesting, where mark worrell, cory doyne, and troy cate will likely join brian falkenborg and andy cavazos. cate has pitched very well in the mexican pacific league --- he's carrying a 1.52 era in 24 innings, with 15 hits, 8 walks, and 20 strikeouts. doyne has done two things very well throughout his minor-league career: strike people out and avoid home runs. if he could cut down his walk rate, he might have a future. last year at springfield he struck out 10.6 guys per 9 innings and allowed only 1 homer in 66 innings; his MLE era was 4.36. Update [2006-12-22 9:37:26 by lboros]: doyne left as a minor-league free agent; now in the orioles' system.

see the red baron's diary for a detailed look at the state of the bullpen in memphis and elsewhere.

there'll be a few other interesting players at triple A; possibly brendan ryan, probably amaury marti, certainly edgar gonzalez (of whom, more here). of course narveson will be back, and if i'm not mistaken michel hernandez is still on the cards' 40-man roster. (danup has the low-down on some of the cards' minor-league free-agent pickups.) none of these guys will be mistaken for a red-hot prospect, but i'd be surprised if at least one guy from that group didn't boost his stock significantly in 2007.

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Comments

re: Narvy

I didn't think he would clear waivers. Part of the rant on him was that he is out of options, I believe.

I'll look into it, although I am sure someone has that answer off-hand.

by plh903 on Dec 22, 2006 9:22 AM EST reply actions

corrections

Stavinoha is, like Gall, righthanded all the way. Doyne, I am quite sure, has left the system as a free agent, perhaps to Cleveland or Minnesota; I don't have time to check this morning.

by MikeG on Dec 22, 2006 9:30 AM EST reply actions

right you are

i stand corrected on stavinoha; he does hit right-handed. which is weird, because he has been stymied by left-handers his whole minor-league career.

doyne signed with the orioles. too bad; he looks like a useful AAAA pitcher.

by lboros on Dec 22, 2006 9:35 AM EST up reply actions

Stanhovia....

As usual, astute observations, especially the similarity between S-HOVA and Duncan's line equivalents.

To clarify what I wrote in the diary, S-Hova is at a crossroads as far as I'm concerned is Chris Duncan or better or is he John Gall? Or is less than John Gall? Its either 40 man roster making time or AAAA player time.

by Brock20 on Dec 23, 2006 8:29 AM EST up reply actions

Narveson

Isn't he out of options? I don't think he would clear waivers. It seems like the cards might have to make him work as a lefty specialist or long reliever if they plan on keeping him.

by endlessticketscom on Dec 22, 2006 10:07 AM EST reply actions

AA pitchers

It's about time for Lambert to start putting up some #'s or he's going to become an also-ran. Also, a rumor on the scout.com site the other day said that Walt had agreed w/ the Yankees to trade Pomeranz for Pavano. They just hadn't worked out the $$$$ yet. If this is true (and it is at this point just a rumor) then that sort of clears up the pitching logjam at AA.

But it's time for Lambert to show what he can do. I wonder if he could work as a closer. As I recall, he throws hard and maybe it would be easier for him to focus on 1 inning rather than 6. Does anybody know anything more about him that might indicate whether he'd work as a closer?

by chuckb on Dec 22, 2006 10:28 AM EST reply actions

Can you link that rumor?

Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 22, 2006 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

source?

was that a walton rumor or just something that popped up on the message board?

by dmb60614 on Dec 22, 2006 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

this would be a coup

great move if they can make it.

by DanUpBaby on Dec 22, 2006 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not a Pavano apologist by any means

and I'm not sure he does very much to shore up the rotation. But Pomeranz seems like a rather fungible commodity. This doesn't sound like a trade that could hurt us in any reasonably forseeable way.

still not a Pavano fan though...i think he's just damaged goods.

by azruavatar on Dec 22, 2006 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

dollars

as long as the yanks are covering a significant portion of the contract i'd be for it. pavano isnt the #2 we were looking for, but he would seem to be a better option than looper.

by dmb60614 on Dec 22, 2006 10:53 AM EST up reply actions

looper can throw a ball from the mound

to the catcher. he may get hammered while doing it but at least he's a warm body. that's more than pavano can say at this point.

by azruavatar on Dec 22, 2006 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

assumptions

i assumed that if the cards were making this trade they would be giving pavano a thorough physical exam.

by dmb60614 on Dec 22, 2006 11:03 AM EST up reply actions

I'm sure

But, honestly, I've lost quite a bit of faith in our medical staff over the last couple seasons post-Mulder and Rolen debacles.

by RedbirdRay on Dec 22, 2006 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

true

for mulder they didnt bother with a physical. they looked at medical records and relied on the statements by the oakland medical staff. i hope they learned their lesson.

plus in this scenario the risk seems to be less...losing pomeranz and the yanks cover a significant portion of the cash.

by dmb60614 on Dec 22, 2006 11:14 AM EST up reply actions

I agree

about the "Mulder debacle" comment, but I'm so sick of the media and everyone else who has no medical knowledge whatsoever ripping on the Cards' medical staff and their handling of Rolen's injury.

They tried to debride Rolen's labrum and it didn't work. It was the right move to make in-season. It is just plain wrong to say that they mis-diagnosed or mishandled his injury in any way.

by silent_bob on Dec 22, 2006 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

I have a lot

of medical knowledge also.

The debridement wasn't the problem. The allowing him to return to playing injured and trying to play through the pain and lack of ROM was.

by RedbirdRay on Dec 22, 2006 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

I disagree

Playing through pain didn't hurt his shoulder any more than it was already damaged. It wasn't his throwing shoulder. They gave it a shot to save his season. Rolen has to take some responsibility for his own shoulder. What would've happened if they pulled him for the rest of the NLCS? Would we have won the pennant or the series?

Hindsight is always 20/20.

by silent_bob on Dec 22, 2006 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

re Pavano

I'd rather give up less, and sign Pavano for a little more of the dough given the short-term payroll space. If it isn't hamstringing or prohibitive, I can't really make myself care - "not my money" as Cubs fans say.

Who knows what the dollar amounts come down to, but if it's something like 2007: $6mm, 2008: $7mm that would seem to be a pretty manageable risk for this team. The Yanks would be eating about 1/3 in that scenario.

Worst-case scenario we have a nice closer experiment in 2007 or something. Who knows.

Also, scout.com (BW) reports (with a disclaimer explaining that it is "just a rumor" that is so prominent, it almost funny) that the Cards and Sox have gotten to the point where names were being tossed around for Buehrle, at this point Ken W wants Hawksworth+.

According to scout.com. I'll trust you guys not to crucify the messenger (me), on this one.

by plh903 on Dec 22, 2006 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

it was

a Walton rumor posted on one of the p-d boards. I have no idea whether it's true or not but it seems to make sense. We need a pitcher and Pavano seems to be the kind of pitcher Duncan can work well with. The Yanks want desperately to get rid of him and will eat some salary (which Walt loves). They don't need Duncan or Wainwright to make it work. And Pomeranz, as someone noted, is fungible. He projects as a back end of the rotation guy at best and is closed to being passed up in our system by Garcia and Hawksworth. In fact, Hawksworth has probably already gone by him.

As for the ? about his health, there is no way Walt does this deal unless he's certain that Pavano is healthy. They'll quadruple check every medical report to ensure that he's healthy. Whether or not he can stay healthy is a different ? entirely but Walt won't do this deal unless he feels pretty good about Pavano's health.

by chuckb on Dec 22, 2006 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

Pavano

This also assumes that the Cards aren't just trying to go cheap and acquire Pavano (with the Yankees picking up some or most of the tab) instead of paying out money for Suppan or Weaver. This wouldn't be the first time that ownership has given Jocketty a pile of chicken you-know-what and told him to make chicken salad out of it.

Cards fan in Denver

by Futility Infielder on Dec 22, 2006 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

harsh...man

I see it as a low cost alternative to some of the big $ floating around. A healthy Pavano would be a bargain, ala Carp. If it didn't work, no harm, no foul. It's apparent that WJ and crew have been reviewing medical records, and basing their decision on the review. It's not what the owners give them, it's smart front office work to produce a winner year-in, year-out. That's how medium market teams need to operate to compete with the big money (Yankee's), and the idiot's (Rangers).

go crazy folks..........

by wwbd on Dec 22, 2006 5:12 PM EST up reply actions

that's pretty much how i see it

if Pavano's healthy, he's in the same league w/ Suppan, Weaver, Batista and some of the others. Beneath Pettitte, Zito, and Schmidt but right in that middle group. And he'd be cheaper and, more importantly to me, only under contract for the next 2 years as opposed to 3-4 for Suppan, Weaver, et al.

by chuckb on Dec 22, 2006 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

Mulder down to Cards and Rangers?

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/sports/16298394.htm

As I've said, I'm not enthused but maybe it'll work out. I can't see him honestly believing that pitching in Arlington will improve his prospects to hit the free agent jackpot in 2 years!

by chuckb on Dec 22, 2006 10:31 AM EST reply actions

Lambert

I've watched him at AA: utterly unimpressive. But, all of those appearances were starts so perhaps he could be a good reliever. It worked for Todd Worrell. A teeny, tiny, imperceptible glimmer of hope...

by Pokey Joe on Dec 22, 2006 10:43 AM EST reply actions

Ditto unimpressed with Pomeranz

Guy's kind of a meathead. Totally worth it for Pavano if the $$$ is right.

"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck

by itsalemmon1019 on Dec 22, 2006 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

Off Topic a bit....then back on topic

So I am just curious about some of you folks thoughts on Sammy Sosa trying to make it back. Would anyone consider him as Card if the deal was good?

I honesty do not get to follow the minor league teams too much, just not enough time. Does anyone know if pitching coachs in AA and AAA teach them to pitch the way LaDuncan wants them to pitch, i.e. do they work on becoming a ground ball pitcher there? I remember hearing Bobby Cox saying that they draft based on his style of ball, rather than strickly talent and everyone from rookie ball up plays the game the same way (pitching, fielding, hitting) so that so that every one is on the same page.

by arthropodtodd on Dec 22, 2006 10:55 AM EST reply actions

No.

n/t

by sdrone on Dec 22, 2006 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

Seemed very off last year

At least in the handling of Reyes. At AAA, he was told to just keep working on his 4-seamer and to forget the 2-seamer. But at the Big Club, Duncan kept working him with the 2-seamer.

Just seemed like a conflict of coaching and probably attributed some to his ups and downs.

by RedbirdRay on Dec 22, 2006 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

two seamer

at various times they have told him to work on the two seamer and keeping the ball down in the zone. when they sent him down mid Aug i think they had him throw 4 seamers in AAA because he was having trouble establishing and locating his fastball, any fast ball. so they just let him work with what he was more comfortable with at that point. i guarantee you they have tried to get him to throw the two seamer numerous times in the past. ottavino has also spoke of learning the two seamer. i think it is something they try to teach prospects they think can make the big league club. they probably dont give out specific instructions for the lesser prospects.

by dmb60614 on Dec 22, 2006 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

sosa

he was awful in his last appearance with baltimore. after spending a year out of baseball there is no reason to suggest he has improved any.

by dmb60614 on Dec 22, 2006 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

Sosa

wasn't a very good player when he wasn't hitting homers at an historic clip. His OBP never was very good and he struck out way too often. I can't imagine he'll be better now that he's 37-38 and he hasn't played in more than a year! I'd rather give Craig Wilson a spot to platoon w/ Duncan than Sosa.

by chuckb on Dec 22, 2006 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

it's too bad

that florida isn't straightlaced about drinking issues... if that were the case, someone could swoop in and snag dontrelle today for a song.

link

Rabid Redbird

by gthedamned on Dec 22, 2006 1:40 PM EST reply actions

What's wrong with this sentence?

I had a hard time reconciling the following sentence:

"stop[ped] his black Bentley [...], [got] out of the car and urinate[d] in the street."

That's certainly something you won't read every day.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Dec 22, 2006 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

Buehrle ?

has anyone heard a trade rumor with buehrle hawksworth and others. a buddy mentioned it at work and i told him he was crazy.

by herr28 on Dec 22, 2006 4:59 PM EST reply actions

mentioned earlier

it was alluded to in a brian walton post on scout.com. If I understand correctly, (I'm not a subscriber over there) we are interested in Buehrle and the Sox will trade him but they want Hawksworth + another pitching prospect.

I'm not inclined to do that. I'm not at all sold on Buehrle and he'll be a free agent in a year. We could sign him then if we decide he's worth it. Hawksworth and another pitching prospect is too much for my taste.

by chuckb on Dec 22, 2006 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

Miwaukee is brewing... Soup???

There is news today that Milwaukee made a 4-year pitch to Jeff Suppan.

He called fate's bluff on a cool New York night, October 19th, 2006.

by Number47 on Dec 22, 2006 6:49 PM EST reply actions

In the Milwaukee paper.....

for the past few days, so my opinon is that they are really close to signing him. The Journal writers tend not to crazy speculate or run rumors rampant. The paper did mention that he won't sign until Zito signs, so that he's the number one pitcher out there.

He's probably be the number three after Sheets, Capuano. Although if Dave Bush puts it together he could be bounced back to fourth.

by Brock20 on Dec 22, 2006 7:33 PM EST up reply actions

Who says you can go home again?

Poor Griffey Jr. dude broke his hand, and is as of now out for the start of the year. AGAIN. man, ever since he left the west coast he has been cursed. If I were him, I'd demand a trade now just to change my luck. if he stayed healthy his contract is very good in today's crazy market. I'm not suggesting that Walt & Co give the Natti a call, but I am sure if Jr said trade me to a winner, and the Natti did call, Walt would listen. not that I would want him unless the Natti ate a lot of his deal, and didn't want our top young kids in return. again, I am not saying we should seriously consider trading for him because he just can't seam to stay healthy. but if by some crazy xmas miracle everything did work out in the Cardinals favor, I'd rather have a healthy Jr in left, and Duncan in right with Jimmy in center, than Juan,Dunc&Jimmy in the outfield. I'm just sayin.

Marry Christmas VEB.

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD. My Blog: And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Dec 22, 2006 6:53 PM EST reply actions