1st Round DP Value and My Solution to our Off-Season

by Lawless on Dec 21, 2006 8:22 PM EST

Reading through today's post got me thinking about how much a first round draft pick is worth (i.e. theoretically we would pay two first round picks less than fair value for Soup as that is our compensation if he signs elsewhere).

My crude calculation is based on Cards first round picks from 1991-1999 (I used historical years as we don't know how much Lambert, Rasmus, Barton, etc. are "worth" at this point). Based on my crude calculations a first round pick is worth on average $4M more than signing costs. As such, it makes it even less likely that the Cards would sign a guy like Soup (or someone like Loretta for that matter who is a type A, yet not worth the theoretical $4M pick you are giving up).

With that in mind I have to believe that a great solution for us would be as follows:

Sign Aubrey Huff 2Y $14M
Trade Rolen for Ervin Santana and pick a prospect
Trade Wainright for Randy Johnson (believe it or not after considering salaries I think this would be a fairly even trade)
Trade Reyes to the DRays for BJ Upton and E Dukes
Sign Crain Wilson 1Y $6M
Trade Enca to the Marlins (to play CF) for a bag of balls

This would leave the Cards with a starting lineup as follows:

C. Carpenter
Randy Johnson
Ervin Santana
K. Wells
Hawk/Narvie/Brazelton/Ainsworth (I would sit this person anytime there was an extra day off, which would make these guys end up with a collective 15-20 start remeber Matty Mo a few years ago...)

vs. RHP

RF BJ Upton
LF C. Duncan
1B A. Pujols
CF J. Edmonds
3B A. Huff
2B A Kennedy
SS A Kennedy
C Y Molina

vs. LHP

SS D. Eckstein
3B A. Huff
1B A. Pujols
LF C. Wilson
RF BJ Upton
C Y. Molina
2B A. Kennedy
CF Skip?

Not bad? My personnal opinion was that this team needed to be blown up (saving Pujols), but realistically management cannot do that after a WS run, so this gives you a good roster that is flexible enough to have room for a payroll dump at the end of the year. The only other item would be to try to figure out what the Dodgers need and get a three way trade going... Just fun on a Thursday night!

-K

My backup is as follows (rough, but interesting to a number cruncher like myself)

1991 Dmitri Young $1M - Value $5M = +$4M
1992 Sean Low $1M - Value $0 = -$1M
1993 Alan Benes $1M - Value $2M = $1M
1994 Bret Wagner $1.5M - Value $0 = -$1.5M
1995 Matt Morris $2M - Value $20M = $18M
1996 Braden Looper $1.8M - Value $5M = +$3.2M
1997 Adam Kennedy $1.7M - Value $5M = +$3.3M
1998 JD Drew $3M - Value $15M = $12M
1999 Chance Caple $1M - Value =$0 = -$1M

Total ~ Value = $38M/9 = $4M value per pick

Poll

Who would get the better of a A. Wainright for Randy Johnson straight up deal?

Yankees

77 votes

Cardinals

3 votes

Even - Helps both teams...

3 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Hmmmm.... Where to start?

Ok, I see your points for one and two, not all that bad of an idea.

But, uh, how do I say this, Reyes won't fetch Upton or Dukes. The D-Rays want more, and have always wanted more. That won't work.

Wainwright for Johnson would be one of the worst trades this offseason, worse than the Vidro one. Just put Adam in the rotation, I'll bet he does better than Randy Johnson this year.

And the Juan to Florida trade, not gonna happen. Juan gets five million bucks next year and he is over thirty. The Marlins won't take that salary or the age, remember they are saving money for the stadium... hence the trades last offseason.

I could see options one, two, and five working, but the other ones would put us in worse shape.

by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Dec 21, 2006 8:56 PM EST reply actions

Bias

Strangely enough, I agree. My feel from the beginning was blow it up. Go young and take our lumps this year. My problem, however, is that ownership/management is not going to go in that direction. They can't afford public perception of a blown up world champion,,,, hence the need to get a stabilizing #2 veteran presence in the rotation.

In Wainright you are most likely trading a #3/#4 for five years for RJ an admittedly expensive #2 for 1-2 years. Only a decent trade if you think RJ puts you over the top in the postseason. He is the veteran presence that the Cards management is pining for.

As for Reyes, if he won't fetch Upton then you simply don't do the deal and slot him in the five spot. Then you acquire an OF like Mench for peanuts (i.e. the Crew barely believed Mench as worth the cost of arbitration he won't be expensive in trade). If I were the DRays I would counter with Baldelli or Gomes for Reyes. They desparately need pitching and have surplus OF. This offer might be as good as it gets...

Another off the wall trade idea: Carpenter for Johnson, Pavano, and Hughes...

Fun stuff!

by Lawless on Dec 21, 2006 9:42 PM EST up reply actions

Randy Johnson isn't even a #2 anymore

He had an ERA of 5.00 last year. And we shouldn't be trading Reyes at all, don't forget, we need pitching too.

by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Dec 21, 2006 10:05 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed

Like I said, if I am looking long-term RJ is not the solution. If I am thinking more from a two year perspective, Bill James's 2007 projection for RJ is:

3.98 ERA 11Baserunners/9IP >8.5K/9IP

and those numbers would have to be better in a move from the AL east to the NL central. Again, if I am in win now mode I do this deal (I might even ask for Pavano to be thrown in with Encarnacion being shipped on our side). If I am thinking long-term there is no way I do this deal. It has a little upside short term and a lot of downside long-term.

As far as trading Reyes - I would only do it for a trading partner that is willing to give up premium talent (like the DRays). If I were dealing Reyes the ultimate end-game would probably be Brad Penny (i.e. figure out what the Dodgers are looking for - maybe Gomes/Dukes), get that package for reyes then move them for Penny. Parlaying Reyes for Penny would be something Tony would be interested in (personally - I would take Reyes over Penny straight up...).

by Lawless on Dec 21, 2006 10:45 PM EST up reply actions

Would you pull this?

Pujols for Santana, V. Guerrero, and Jared Weaver? Wow! Rotation of
Carp
Santana
Wainwright
Weaver2
Reyes/Wells

Young and Phenominal!

Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 21, 2006 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

Fun

fun possibility but in my mind the one untouchable cardinal is albert pujols... I just don't think you can trade him -- he is stan the man of my generation and you can't trade stan the man -- even if you could well be a better team afterwards....

Any other Cardinal - for me - all bets are off... That said, for Rolen Edmonds and Carpenter I would only do a deal for younger prospects where the scales clearly tip in our favor... For Pujols, I think I am just a flat no kind of guy...

by Lawless on Dec 21, 2006 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

I know

but that would be a hell of a trade. Carp to me is untouchable. He wants the hometown discount. He wants to pitch for us. He is a true Cardinal. So there is nothing out there that you might consider trading Pujols for? What about a three team trade where we somehow got Vladdy and Beltran? Would that work? I don't know, this just seemed fun to talk about crazy trades before Christmas

Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 21, 2006 10:43 PM EST up reply actions

CRAZY

those ideas are not only bad but would never happen.

wainwright for randy johnson that is just stupid

hey then maybe at the trade deadline we can trade pujols for bonds

and
then rasmus for steve finley

then maybe in 2008 we can build a retirement home in the new baseball villiage

then just for fun we can trade eck and duncan to the phillies for jamie moyer and maybe if we pray really really hard ozzie smith would come out of retirement

SWH

by BRINGBACKWILSON on Dec 21, 2006 10:44 PM EST reply actions

Funny

Short term - Like I said several times before, you have to give up something to get something. In RJ you get the veteran starter than Tony/Dave need.

If you turn this on its head a little, last year I think 90% of the people who vote no on this trade would have voted yes. What did Wainright do this year? He had a 3 ERA in 8th inning work out of the bullpen (he was good, but better than RJ?). Yet, we treat him like he is the next great SP.

I truly think he has potential, but the assertion that this trade is landside in the Yankees favor (and stupid) is a little much. We have ~17 years of track record for RJ - heavily favorable. We have ~ 2 weeks of strong AW track record. You do the math.

by Lawless on Dec 21, 2006 10:51 PM EST up reply actions

i do like

huff and wilson

SWH

by BRINGBACKWILSON on Dec 21, 2006 10:56 PM EST reply actions

Craig WIlson

I was thinking he would be in the 2-3 mil for him, could he really fetch 6, even in this market?

by gopher100 on Dec 21, 2006 11:38 PM EST reply actions

VS. RHP

Your lineup vs. RHP is intriguing, although I doubt that Adam Kennedy has the range to play both 2B and SS, although I'm sure he'll enjoy all the extra ABs....

Seriously, though. I hope you are joking or drunk right now.

"~17 years of track record for RJ - heavily favorable. We have ~ 2 weeks of strong AW track record. You do the math." - That makes no sense.

What Johnson has done the last 17 years will put him in the HOF, but doesn't tell you what he'll do next year. The fact is he is aging, is very injury prone, and frankly his stuff is on the decline. I don't believe that a move to the NL will help him enough. Plus, he has been poor in the last two Octobers. And he'll make $16 mil next year.

Then there's Wainwright. He is coming off a strong year (not 2 weeks), has the stuff and arsenal to move into the starting rotation, and can not only help the Cards win now, but for the next 5 years as well. And this is just my opinion, but I think he'll be at least a #2, not just a 3-4 starter. I think he's that good. And he'll make about $350K this year, so explain how you think the salaries would even out.

I shouldn't be harsh about it, since I like when people get crazy ideas and think outside the box, but that trade really would be the worst in baseball history.

by Baseball addict on Dec 21, 2006 11:55 PM EST reply actions

However

I do like the C. Wilson and A. Huff ideas

by Baseball addict on Dec 22, 2006 12:01 AM EST up reply actions

If Kennedy reaches base the first time

Is there a ghost runnner on base during his second at bat?

by Zack Morris on Dec 22, 2006 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

Um

Our "rotation of the future" was just destroyed.

Acquire Barry Zito!

by aet15 on Dec 22, 2006 12:28 AM EST reply actions

Interesting

but I can't quite buy into trading Wainwright just yet. For a year or two of productivity that trade doesn't come close to making sense. I think you have some good ideas, just don't buy that one.

by DD502DK on Dec 22, 2006 2:35 AM EST reply actions

1 more

since we are going old
lawless's lineup for 2007

ozzie ss
a.k. 2b
bonds lf
huff 3b
wilson 1b
duncan rf
molina c
a.k. cf ( just for fun we will let him play 2 postions

maybe danny cox , john tudor , jack clark , and tony pena can come back as well i mean if that washed up randy johnson would be playing in st.louis you might as well make it interesting

SWH

by BRINGBACKWILSON on Dec 22, 2006 4:22 PM EST reply actions

I am an asshole but i'm probably right

Look, why would you trade the chemistry and low salaries to pick up a bunch of has beens and could bees. We have a great nucleus and I ask you what other third baseman is capable of picking up gold glove hardware with the potential to hit for average, power, and drive in 100 runs. Why would you trade that ? He hustles and bustles. So what Rolen and Larussa didn't speak for awhile. When your family your gonna have fights. If it were not for the media that wouldn't have been as big a deal as they made of it. We could use another starting pitcher or two or maybe not... and then we go in to the season with a little flexibility in case something doesn't work out. Were setting pretty. The only move i would make would be to sign Zito or /and Mulder if possible. Supp is great but what does he do with a sub-par team behind him? Relax cause we got time & it's not a sprint it's a marathon. The proof is in the pudding ( 2006 world champs )! Oh no you can't take that away from me !!!

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Dec 22, 2006 11:49 PM EST reply actions

my thoughts exactly

that's what i have been thinking. when that rolen for santana mega-deal was spectulated a long time ago i was leaning toward building toward the future, but now i don't really see the point in it. rolen is a huge leader in the clubhouse and is still a premier third basemen. his shoulder can only get better now. plus, what is the point in trading years of cheap value in wainwright for one or two slightly better years from the big unit at a price that will hinder us from making that impact trade or salary dump in the middle of the season. there's no need to freak out because the cubs and astros are mindlessly spending money. just trust WJ, when has he really failed us recently?

Albert Pujols is god with a lowercase "g". World Series Champs Baby!!

by stlsportsfan on Dec 24, 2006 12:50 AM EST up reply actions

Why not to rebuild

When you have the best player in the league, you should be trying to contend every year. There is no reason to waste any of the monster years Pujols has on a team that is rebuilding and won't win. If you decide to rebuild, you might as well trade Pujols. How often does a team have the luxury of having the best player in the game? A couple times in a century? When you've got him, you have to try to win with him.

by Baseball addict on Dec 24, 2006 2:00 AM EST reply actions