Four the dearly departed

I would love to see a manager try the 4-man rotation, at least for a little while.  It seems TLR is pretty into trying new things as evidenced by his sometimes bullpen by committee, batting the pitcher 8th, etc.   I would guess if any guy might try it, it might be TLR.

One thing, however, that I've never really appreciated about TLR is his use of the running game.  I think he tries a little too often to send guys who aren't really good basestealers.  Those stats are somewhat inflated by botched hit-and-runs, but still...that's not such  great idea most of the time either.

There was a pretty good analysis of the Cardinal baserunning at Fungoes.  For those of you who join me in Juan-dislike...here's even more reason:  Juan is our worst baserunner.

http://stl.sabr.org/fungoes/?p=739

And, here's a little discussion about it at BTF:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/fungoes_cardinals_running_game_in_rev iew/

Why wouldn't the fifth starter go to the bullpen for the playoffs?

If you're spending extra money on him -- paying him a premium because he's a starter rather than a reliever -- then you have to think he's better than some other guys in the pen. That wasn't the case with Marquis, but then again he never should've stayed in the rotation for the entire regular season.

If nothing else, that fifth starter should be an ideal long reliever in the playoffs, if your starter has an early appointment with the showers.

As for the pitch count, I agree with you, but I'd like to see that kind of pitch-count discipline within the current system.

We're paying good money to relievers anyway; we should never be afraid to use them once the starter gets past 100 pitches.

Here are the numbers on Carp, as compiled by toris34. These are the eight starts he made in 06 on five days' rest or more.

date    inn     H    BB   R    K    ERA     WHIP    W-L  
4/14    8.00    4    3    1    6     1.13    0.875    L  
6/13    7.00    3    3    0    13   0.00    0.857    W  
7/25    7.33    7    3    0    4     0.00    1.364    W  
8/15    9.00    4    6    0    6     0.00    1.111    W  
8/26    8.00    2    1    1    5    1.13    0.375    ND  
9/1      9.00    3    0    1    8    1.00    0.333    W  
10/3     6.33    5    1    1    7    1.42    0.947    W  
10/26   8.00    3    0    0    6    0.00    0.375    W  
avg     7.83   3.9  2.1  0.5  6.9 0.60    0.780    6-1

And here's the full discussion. Pretty compelling stuff, in my view.

1.  We're relying on two kids, one of which has not started in the big leagues to my knowledge(or at least been a regular starter), and the other which TLR is STILL not showing full confidence in.  Maybe there's no additional injury risk in this situation, but do you want to make the two guys that are the future of the Cardinals pitching staff the experiment?
2.  We basically already HAVE our fifth starter in Kip Wells.  I know we can't go back and take a do-over, but if we were going to go into a situation of looking at a four-man rotation, then we needed to get a guy like Schmidt or at least someone along the lines of Lilly.
3.  What if an injury happens?  Then our lack of depth in the starting rotation could REALLY hurt us.  And if we haven't even made an attempt to stretch out Thompson to start or don't have a fifth starter, we're looking at a three-man rotation with the fourth spot being bullpen starts for what would likely be an already heavily used bullpen(assuming you'd keep the starters at a more conservative pitch count since they're pitching more often).

Also, on a sidenote, I remember Montreal doing this at least for a short time somewhere around maybe 2003?  Maybe earlier, I don't remember.

I don't remember how it worked out, but I may try to look up some information about that.  If anyone else finds that, it'd be a GREAT thing to post.

Personally I like the idea of a four man rotation. I don't see why we couldn't do it and carry a long reliever and keep a spot starter in the pen who could start maybe up to 10 games to give the rotation a little rest from time to time.

I would not be worried about AW and AR in a four man rotation. Let's see what these kids can really do. This would really test if they are the future or not.

As far as the playoffs you only need four guys. In a short series and given the scheduled days off you want to only pitch your top 3 to 4 guys depending the series. You want your best, not your fifth best.

Of course if the rotation isn't working, they could always trade for someone and add a fifth.

welcometojohnsonville.blogspot.com

Due to injury, college, etc. both are a little inexperienced and delayed hitting the bigs.

But, both will be 25 this year.  I don't think that's what BP or anyone else considers young when preaching to baby a young arm along.

1. The five man rotation was started by the Dodgers because they had five good starters and not to save anyone from injury. As typical in baseball the other teams missed the point and went to a five man staff as well thinking it was the extra day of rest that helped, ignoring having good pitchers and a pitchers ballpark helps more.
2. You can't use Carp's starts on short rest because it's not the same thing. Telling Carp he's starting today instead of tomorrow isn't the same thing and calling him this week and saying hey Carp we are going with a five man staff so you might want to change your workout routine over the next couple months.
3. It's not the innings that hurt pitchers it's the number of pitches thrown when fatigued. The 100 pitch count is just a base, why? Because 100 is easier to remember (and really if they said it was 104 most people would just say you're making that up.) 6 ip per 40 starts or 240 innings would be easier on an arm than 7 ip per 32 starts or 224 innings. That's the idea.

If that made any sense? If not then that explains why I am posting in the comment section of this blog instead of the body of it.

from Foxsports.com rumors and notes....

The Cubs believe the Cardinals damaged Jason Marquis' psyche when they asked him to take a pounding in a couple of games--13 runs in five innings against the White Sox and 12 runs in five innings against Atlanta--that destroyed his ERA. He became the first pitcher since Chubby Dean of the 1940 Philadelphia Athletics to allow 12 earned runs or more in two starts in the same season.

The BP articles make two well-reasoned points -  that extra rest with a five-man rotation takes starts away from your most effective pitchers, and gives them to AAAA pitchers; and that less rest between starts does not mean that pitch counts should be allowed to go higher, because throwing with a fatigued arm raises injury risk.

However, the BP articles recognize that some individual cases may differ (particularly older pitchers), and DCGreg's statistics show that Chris Carpenter is much more effective with extra rest.  So, file the four-man rotation as a good idea that doesn't fit well with our current personnel.

P.S. The anecdotal evidence in the BP articles that pitchers have sharper control on three days' rest doesn't seem to apply to Carp.

Maybe it would be a good idea if we had four guys we could rely on to go a whole season with a five-man rotation, let alone four. There's no guarantee that Wells, Wain, and Reyes will even last the whole season as it is, with the extra innings of those extra 30 games or so, they will not be in any better of shape. It's a good idea, IF we had a healthy pitching staff. These guys could get injured, and if not, they'll definitely get extremely fatigued. Maybe back in the Suppan era it would have made more sense, but non of these guys have shown 200 inning seasons before. For right now it just plain and simply won't work with the guys we have. I'd agree that we shouldn't spend on a waste of money, so let's let Thompson or Narveson fill that 5 hole.

 We don't want to be the Cubs here . . . overworking out young pitchers until they're doomed to an eternity of injuries.

is what ails him, I'm sure the Bad News Bear Cubs have the cure. What with Wrigley Field producing so many memorable success stories over the years...

...between 1898 and 1908.

The 5 man staff is not just about injury.  I think we are glossing over one major issue with going to a 4 man staff:  pitching between starts probably makes a pitcher more effective.  It is the only time they get to work through their mechanics funks, new pitches or make others sharper.  It is also the time when a pitching coach can make his suggestions and where the pitcher builds confidence.  If the pitching coach sees that a pitcher is fatigued, he can rest on that day, allowing him extra rest without pushing the entire staff out of their routine.

Even Carpenter has said that he benefits greatly from his pitching in-between starts (finding mechanics that are off, etc), and you would think it would benefit young pitchers like Wainwright and Reyes even more.  Think of it like a hitter without batting practice or a fielder without fielding practice.  We wouldn't even think about this in football or basketball. (Unless it is Allen Iverson)  

A 4 man staff may not make a pitcher more injury prone, it may just may make them worse.

The Cards made some minor league signings with invites to ST late yesterday.  Details are on Rotoworld...

In today's game, there are 4 major ways that you can set up a rotation.

• Four-man rotation: A strict quartet of starters, with the occassional spot starter thrown in for extra rest or a doubleheader.
  
• First-man rotation: A box-&-one setup, with your ace hurler pitching every fifth day as the schedule allows, the other starters shuffling.
  
• Fifth-man rotation: A swing starter works every fifth game after a scheduled off-day.
  
• Five-man rotation: A basic setup, with everyone taking their turn.
  

Of course, this doesn't include the Sunday starter (back when scheduled double headers were common), LaRussa's infamous Double-3-man rotation (two pitchers work 4 innings each every third game), or a six-man rotation (further diluting of the gene pool).

The four-man rotation would be very difficult to implement & maintain, as the pitchers coming up through the team systems are unused to the workload that it takes to make it truly effective. Not that the workload is any harder per se, but that it is different.
In essence, you would have your top four guys starting 38 game each, with 10 starts handed over to a long reliever out of your pen. As long as the manager doesn't replace that fifth starter with your 8th-best reliever (read: preferably bring in a PH/PR/defensive option for the bench), I think it's a good use of resources. That assumes you have the goods to actually pull it off.

The first-man rotation has been used plenty of times, most notably for the Cardinals the past two years as Carpenter has made his September run toward the Cy Young. For Chris, it appears that he responds better when he doesn't have the additional pressure thrown on him and he has the occassional extra day of rest. (His final month the last two years have been brutal compared to his earlier efforts. (Nevermind his shutdown in 2004.) But for many other big game pitchers (surrounded by lesser pitchers), this is the most effective use of their services.

The fifth-man rotation would have been, I think, the best situation for Reyes to have encountered last season, assuming everyone else had performed along historical precedents. Four solid starters receiving regular rest and work, plus the option of working in the young hurler in a controlled fashion and reduced pressure. Looking back, nearly every facet of that plan went to shit, but it doesn't mean that it's not a sound strategy.
(Another benefit to this rotation option is that, all other things being equal, the fifth starter is already accustomed to his reduced role and would be less likely to balk at a full-time move to the bullpen come playoff time.)

The basic problem with a strict five-man rotation is that it is a waste of resources. Having five solid starters gives you an advantage in that your fifth best guy is almost certain to be better than their fifth & you can steal a few more regular-season victories, but it is a waste come playoff time. Conversely, if you have a guy who wouldn't be a great loss if he was relegated to the bullpen, why the hell is he getting 32 starts a year?
Of course, this is the setup that nearly every team is used to. Heck, it's as simple as you can get and there are no conversions to make to your staff. But the point of a manager (both in baseball and for working stiffs) is to get the best use out of the people that he is given, not to keep it so simple he doesn't need to put any real effort in to his job. [Tangent/rant detected; conversation topic terminated. jk]

Given our current starting pitchers, their respective histories, and our fall-back options, I think it's best if we follow a first-man rotation, with maybe an occassional extra day of rest awarded to Carpenter. His production is too valuable to waste precious starts with scrap-heap reclamation projects.

the 4 man allows you to load up on starters and replace that last starter w/ a reliever.  Relievers will pitch more innings since the starters will pitch shorter games.  

The problem as I see it is more psychological than anything else.  Pitchers have been trained to pitch every 5th day so getting them accustomed to the preparation would be the most difficult thing.  Their routine would be upset, at least in the short term, and figuring it out could cause some hardship for the staff.  Plus, a couple of bad starts and then the pitchers think it's the 4 man and the routine and their confidence is shot!

In theory I think it works but I don't think it'll work in reality b/c of the disruption it would cause among pitchers -- fearful they'll get hurt, how to prepare, etc.

apparently are pretty close on a Pavano deal. It would be Stu Pomeranz to the Yankes for Pavano and cash, the only problem is the teams are pretty far apart right now on the amount of cash the Yankees should send this way.

Also heard that the Cardinals are in fact having serious talks with the Sox about Buerhle, far enough that names have been thrown around. Apparently two pitching prospects, one of which is Blake Hawksworth.

These are obviously just rumors, but they sound good to me.