How about.....Craig Wilson!!

by farley503 on Dec 20, 2006 1:27 PM EST Comment 13 comments

I've said this before, but why not give Chris Duncan the thing that he most needs to be successful this season: an evil twin! Check out this blurb from Dayn Perry at Fox Sports:

9. Craig Wilson, 1B/OF
Um, yeah, there's really not much left ... Wilson can serve as the right-handed half of a left field, right field or first base platoon, and he can be the right-handed pinch hitter of first resort. He's useful provided the team that signs him recognizes his limitations and deploys him accordingly. Wilson's a career .296 AVG/.395 OBP/.543 SLG hitter against lefties, but he's not an every-day talent.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but he definitely fits the bill, don't you think? What would he command? More than Speizio money?

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yes

he is a perfect fit and better than juan e

SWH

by BRINGBACKWILSON on Dec 20, 2006 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No he's not

Craig Wilson can't play everyday, and is useful primarily as a platoon split. He'd be nice as a compliment to Duncan/Edmonds, and that's it.

Encarnacion doesn't have extreme splits like that, and plays above average defense.

by Valatan on Dec 20, 2006 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

defense

i know the stats say juan is good, but my eyes tell me differently. honestly, i just havent seen a defensive stat that i really like.

by dmb60614 on Dec 20, 2006 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

uhhh, yes he is...

Wilson Probably is better.

Wilson out performs Juan in the following categories that I just looked up really quickly:

OBP
Slugging %
OPS
Isolated Power
HR/Plate Appearence

Also, he has and can play every day.

Also he has a higher RATE stat (defensive metric) per Baseball Prospectus in RF than Juan Encarnacion.

Explain to me how this isn't better?

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 20, 2006 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

forgot to mention...

Wilson's righty/lefty splits aren't really any more extreme than Wilson's are.

Sorry (Val, others) if I sounded hostile in the previous post, but I really don't see how Wilson isn't at least as good (probably better) than Juan Encarnacion.

He'd certainly be valuable as a platton-mate, but I think that the argument can be made that he'd be better than one of our righfield regular.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 20, 2006 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BP's defensive stats

aren't worth the pages they aren't printed on if you have something else to use. It's gotten so bad that BP writers now cite other stats instead.

Encarnacion is worth anywhere from +5 to +15 runs from the play by play defensive metrics. Craig Wilson is a converted catcher who also plays first base. My guess is that, in total, they're of similar value. That said, Wilson would make a great fourth outfielder/platoon partner for Dunc. It's too bad he doesn't catch anymore, it'd be nice to sub Molina out late in the game sometimes.

by DanUpBaby on Dec 20, 2006 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Be that as it may

I'm not really sure which defensive stats to use. I'm not particularly confident in any of them, and honestly the idea that Craig Wilson is a superior rightfielder to Juan Encarnacion seems like a stretch, but still....

at least one defensive metric indicates that there value at that single position is comparable.

ALSO, I think all of the well-accepted measures of offensive production that I cited indicate Wilson's bat is likely superior to Juan's.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 20, 2006 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

I'm not denying that. But BP's defensive numbers are just a joke, and to deny that Encarnacion's a much more valuable outfielder than a guy who runs like a catcher because an outmoded stat says so is pretty bizarre.

by DanUpBaby on Dec 20, 2006 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what I'm saying

(man, I wish comments were edit-able) is that just because you're not especially confident in any defensive stat doesn't mean you shouldn't make obvious conclusions. PMR (+15) and Dial's ZR (+13) say the same thing that UZR has been saying for a long time: that Encarnacion's among the best right fielders in baseball on defense. He plays an adequate centerfield, which is a good clue on a subjective level.

Even if you say Encarnacion's not that good, and you charitably proclaim Craig Wilson average, that's a difference of ten runs. Unless you think Wilson is going to hit like he did in 2004 again, he's not going to be ten runs better than Encarnacion on offense, especially if he's played against righties on a regular basis.

by DanUpBaby on Dec 20, 2006 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The probabilistic model of range

that Dave Pinto uses at Baseball Musings has Wilson as an average outfielder (given small sample sizes) and Enc as a above-average guy going to center, and an average guy except for slightly below average into the corner. From that model, given it's limitations and the existence of Jim Edmonds in center field, I would make the argument that they are close to equivalent as well. Enc has the edge, but not by much, and since we aren't talking about replacing Enc but instead platooning w/dunc and/or Enc when Enc spells edmonds, I'd argue he would be a decent pickup for ~$3-5M.

Especially since he can actually play 1B if Pujols gets hurt again, god forbid (duncan really can't).

"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Dec 20, 2006 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs