looper duper
ok, i'll play along; braden looper, starting pitcher. fine. disbelief hereby suspended. should it come to pass, how unusual would the conversion be?
keep in mind, this wouldn't be the typical reliever-to-starter trajectory. you couldn't compare it to, say, curt schilling's --- schilling made 100 relief appearances at the beginning of his big-league career, but he'd been a starter all the way up the minor-league ladder, making 100+ starts. looper made 12, none above class A. on the same basis, derek lowe is another non-precedent; although he made nearly 300 big-league relief appearances before becoming a full-time starter (and even led the league in saves one year), lowe spent 7 years in minor-league rotations, starting at every level. conversions of that type are fairly common; johan santana and francisco liriano both took that path, and adam wainwright likely will join their ranks in 2007. but looper isn't a starting pitcher who'll be returning to his accustomed role after a few years' holiday in the bullpen; he's a pure reliever who hasn't started a game in nearly a decade, at any level --- he has made 571 major-league relief appearances and 0 major-league starts.
so the question is, how many guys appeared primarily in relief in the minor leagues, and exclusively so upon reaching the majors --- and then became starting pitchers? in two hours of trolling on baseball-reference.com and the baseball cube, i only found a few such careers that even remotely fit that description.
one belongs to byung-hyun kim, who after an abbreviated minor-league career made 236 relief appearances in his first five major-league seasons. like looper he became a closer, but his two blown saves in the 2001 world series tainted him forever; he closed for another couple of seasons but never commanded much trust. in 2003 he made 12 starts and was pretty good in the role (3.38 era, 1.194 whip); he spent most of 2004 in the minors as a starting pitcher, then resurfaced with the rockies in 2005-06 as a so-so starting pitcher. in 65 career starts, he is 17-28 with a 4.81 era.
another somewhat comparable case is omar daal's. like looper, he began his minor-league career as a starter but switched to relief as he moved up the chain; above rookie ball, he made 62 appearances out of the bullpen, vs only 14 starts. for his first five years in the majors, daal toiled in the most specialized role in baseball, LOOGY (ie, "left-handed one-out guy"); wasn't particularly good at it, but a left-hander can always find work. his first 156 major-league appearances came in relief; in september 1996, the end of daal's fourth year in the majors, felipe alou gave him six starts, and daal went 2-3 with a 5.18 era. he returned to the bullpen in 1997 and was beyond awful, posting a 9.15 era in 39 games. that september (now pitching for toronto) he returned to the rotation and pitched very well in 3 starts. the diamondbacks took him in the expansion draft, and he made 23 starts for them in 1998 and posted the national league's 5th-best era at 2.88. the following year he went 16-9 and was the #2 starter on a 100-win team. he stunk in 2000 --- 4-19 record, 6.14 era --- but bounced back the next couple of years to pitch at a league-average level.
then there's charlie hough, who made 78 starts in the minors but converted to full-time bullpen work at triple A; 154 of his last 160 minor-league games were in relief. he then spent 9 years as a big-league reliever; picked up 23 starts along the way but was waved in 400+ times out of the pen. at age 34, he became a regular member of a rotation for the first time in 13 years --- and he thrived. for the next seven seasons he was a rock-solid starter, winning between 14 and 18 games a season with better-than-average eras. a knuckleballer, hough pitched until age 46, long enough to win 174 games as a starting pitcher.
because he threw a gimmick pitch, hough doesn't provide a useful precedent imho; nor does wilbur wood, who became a great starting pitcher after 350 or so relief appearances. various other guys kinda sorta fit the profile --- ron villone, bob stanley, scott garrelts, and jeff brantley all took shots at the rotation after lengthy stints as bullpen specialists. one of dave duncan's success stories, kent bottenfield, has been touted as a precedent by some people, but his case isn't comparable; bottenfield was a starting pitcher throughout the minors and reached the big leagues as a starter. he was only three years removed from rotation duty when duncan returned him there in 1998.
looper's predecessor in the stl bullpen, julian tavarez, provides an intriguing comparison. he has gone back and forth between roles his whole career --- made 80+ starts in minors and started 8 of his first 9 big-league games, but then switched to relief and spent 5 1/2 seasons in the role, making 338 appearances out of the pen. the rockies converted tavarez back into a starter in july 2000, and he did rather well for a season and a half: 15-12 record, 4.12 era, 1.45 whip, excellent numbers for a coors field pitcher. he then went back to bullpen for another 250 appearances before winding up in the boston rotation last september. he pitched very well in six starts, so much so that The Hardball Times declared "the Red Sox front office would be smart to let him battle for a slot in the rotation in Spring Training."
that was before the sox signed matsuzuka, but still . . . . . those guys at Hardball Times are pretty smart. you don't suppose this could actually work? sure it could; sure. i can see it: looper wins 20 games, and rick ankiel hits 25 homers as the starting right fielder, and the cards repeat. when eckstein's contract runs out after 2007, anthony reyes takes over at shortstop; when edmonds retires, adam ottavino is the new centerfielder.
you just gotta think outside the box . . . .
86 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
RICK
OH, WAIT...
Let's be honest....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 18, 2006 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
maybe
on the other hand
No baby yet, Erik?
I was not aware of that...
by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
Hmmm...
GO CARDS!!!
For awhile
Maybe that's just the "posturing" working it's magic, but I don't think so.
One thing I have decided though is whoever you are trying to convince (whoever you would actually benefit from having that mindframe, I'm actually still not sure who this is) that you don't need starting pitching, saying that Looper was slotted in would have the exact opposite affect.
I mean, nothing screams desperation like, "Braden Looper is the fifth starter," does it?
"slotted in"
('Course the other folks that are in that competition at this time don't exactly seem to be ones that'd strike fear into the heart of opposing batters, either.)
by ArkansasTravs on Dec 18, 2006 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Something that screams desperation...
by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
I really don't know...
Those aren't meant to be rhetorical, I really don't know his complete repitoir(sp?)
Also, why isn't Brad Thompson's name being thrown around with the same intensity as Looper's? Isn't he just (I'm not looking it up) 2-3 seasons away from breaking the AA consecutive scorless innings record as a starter? How about Thompson?
by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 9:21 AM EST reply actions
if memory serves
OK, Good...
In a related topic... Izzy was a starter for parts of 4 big league seasons. He even has 3 complete games to his credit. Make it happen.
by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 9:30 AM EST up reply actions
3-4 quality pitches...
' "He's durable. He's stronger," Jocketty said. "He has three or four quality pitches that he could better use in a starting role. Dave Duncan feels very strongly that he has all the assets it takes to be a quality starter." '
...
' ...miles have dropped off Looper's 98-mph fastball. He has become more reliant on his slider and has developed a split-finger fastball.'
Sounds like heater, slider, splitter and one other (curve? change? Eephus? No, probably not the Eephus, I'd remember that.)
Reyes in center!
Sarcasm...
by raisin @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 18, 2006 9:36 AM EST reply actions
Don't you mean
No, you see..
Why not Hancock?
Now I'm not saying Hancock is preferable to Narveson or someone off the scrap heap - but I do know he was slighly better than Looper last season in K/9 and WHIP - over roughly the same IP. Not to mention Hancock has actual experience starting games at the major league level.
This Looper nonsense is either designed to boost his trade value (there sure are some sucker GMs out there as evidenced by this offseason) or to give the impression to whomever (the media, the fans, prospective FA signings and their agents) that we're not desparate (although a team that trots Looper out there as a starter is by definition desperate).
Hancock
by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Dec 18, 2006 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Smokescreen
Or maybe to try to get some leverage...
If we are thinking outside the box...
Sarcasm II
by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Dec 18, 2006 9:44 AM EST reply actions
Again no love for Stewart
He doesn't quite fit the profile, but did flip back and forth between starting and pen-work in the minors. Switched a little in the majors prior to working under LaDunc, but mostly just relieved. Then, became Duncan's project and finished 4x in the top 5 Cy Young votes.
I know he's not a complete comp for Looper, but he's closer than a lot of the other guys...especially when considering it's the same pitching coach.
doesn't seem comparable
How about Bruce Chen?
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 18, 2006 9:59 AM EST reply actions
Plan A, B, C
Plan A
Re-Sign Edmonds, Speizio, Bennett
Sign Soriano, Padilla, Wolf, Wells
Plan B
Resignings and Wells complete, (Soriano out of range, Wolf and Padilla failed)
Sign Kennedy, Schmidt, Bautista, Meche
Plan C
Resignings, Wells and Kennedy complete
(Schmidt ,Bautista, and Meche failed)
Sign Springer and move AW to rotation, Mulder and ?????? (Weaver, Huff, Werth, Pavano, Ohka, Armas, Piniero)
LB, the beauty of that last paragraph you wrote
For the record, I'll go against the grain on this one. Just given that Looper was a servicable closer for 2-3 years, I think he can become a quite capable #4 starter.
by Number47 on Dec 18, 2006 10:47 AM EST reply actions
Reyes
by Pokey Joe on Dec 18, 2006 10:53 AM EST reply actions
Hoyt Wilhelm
by MikeG on Dec 18, 2006 10:55 AM EST reply actions
I think this is all negotiating ploys...
It can also
Exactly.
Why not try Looper in spring training?
So far this winter the first priority was not to do anything stupid. Several teams failed that test, but the Cards did not. Note that many of the silliest contracts have been offered by teams that have underperformed, while the Cards have done careful, helpful things - extending Carp, extending Edmonds, adding Kennedy, etc.
Value play?
The fact it's rarely been attempted in baseball history doesn't convince me it can't be done.
There may be conditioning issues involved, and there's certainly injury potential if conditioning isn't handled right.
But why can't a guy move from one role to the other? Pitching is pitching, and if, as the P-D article says, his repertoire has changed with the speed of his fastball, it could be that he's now better suited to starting. If he'd started his pro career with his current abilities, vs. the power he had back in '96, making him a starter might have been seen as the obvious strategy.
Plus, we all know that the remaining FA options for starters aren't particularly attractive. It could be that lots of teams have more potential talent in their bullpens than in the bottom halves of their rotations.
We already know Looper can be a mediocre-to-decent setup guy. I don't see the harm in seeing if he can handle a different role, and give the team more value than he offers in the bullpen. If it doesn't work, he can always go back. If it does work, then we're spared the agony of one or more sub-replacement-level guys in the rotation.
Exactly...
At least Looper tends to be groundball-heavy and won't have to rely on strikeouts to be successful. Stranger things have happened, I suppose.
by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Who's to say Looper can't be an effective starter?
Check out Looper's stats last year, below, in comparison with Suppan, keeping in mind that Looper was recovering from surgery and he got better all year. His ERA after the All Star break was 3.12.
"As Looper got further and further from surgery he got more and more effective. His trouble with lefties diminished, his slider became more merciless." - Derreck Goold in his PD blog
WHIP 1.31 in 2006 for Looper
WHIP 1.45 in 2006 for Suppan
ERA 3.56 in 2006 for Looper (3.57 lifetime)
ERA 4.12 in 2006 for Suppan
K/9 5.03 in 2006 (5.54 lifetime)
K/9 4.93 in 2006 for Suppan
K/BB 2.05 in 2006 for Looper (1.76 lifetime)
K/BB 1.51 in 2006 for Suppan
Lefties batted .287 in 2006 vs Looper
Lefties batted .302 in 2006 vs Suppan
In all of Looper's 14 regular season appearances this year in which he pitched 2 innings or more, he did not allow any runs and he gave up only 9 hits.
Maybe that 9-3 W-L record was more than luck. Hmmm....
Impressive numbers..
The idea really intrigues me now that you guys start putting togethe numbers.
I'd hope to heck he'd have better numbers
There is a reason mediocre SP can become great RP: it's easier.
I'm not saying Looper can't do it, but those numbers tell us nothing.
Does Looper have what it takes to start?
Why not?
Of course, it's easy to say this coming off a WS championship. I'd probably curse Walt's name every day barring any other scenario.
Off Topic - Dig at Shannon/Rooney?
adding an expensive reliever will not bring fans to the park. It is foolish to think it would. Next season's attendance probably won't be much different than last season's. Meaning most everyone will stay at home and watch the team on television. If you really want to change that, fire Rich and Tommy and hire the Cardinals announcers. The Marlins fans will quit watching the games on television and head out to the ballpark in droves, just so they don't have to listen to that crap.
What the hell does that mean?
by withoutsound on Dec 18, 2006 12:16 PM EST reply actions
They seem to be talking about TV
Agreed
Please don't tell me that MLB.com is streaming the TV broadcast team for their audio feeds.
by withoutsound on Dec 18, 2006 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Shannon and Rooney
by BleacherBum on Dec 18, 2006 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Wilson,Huff,Nixon
and they were once rumored to be in on Huff and Wilson for trades last yr, so why not now?
I think they should still add someone in the OF just my opinion but itd make me feel better.
Not sure thee guys are the answer, but they are available...why not go after wilson for cheap before the yanks re-sign him
I'd imagine
I am not sure why Craig Wilson (Preston too) isn't being mentioned as much in this role, he would seem to fit the criteria. I am thinking that unlike pitching, this may be a market to wait out a little. Similar to how the 2B market turned out. Whoever is left between, Werth, Wilson, or Wilson will probably be had fairly cheap. You might see a guy like John Knott, or Richard Hidalgo come in on a minor league deal or something as well, who knows.
My vote goes for Craig. An outfield of Wilson, Encarnacion, and Taguchi (of course Marrero always has an outside shot) looks passable against lefties. It also allows Edmonds to rest and be platooned, as well as Duncan to sit against left-handers.
The downside of Craig is that he isn't a very good defensive replacement.
Those don't really excite me
Huff? I dunno. I guess at least he's 30ish or younger. How's his defense?
I just have no desire to bring Wilson back. Neither his defense nor his offense impressed me.
sorry wasnt clear
Jason Werth
by Number47 on Dec 18, 2006 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
He struck out...
Tony LaRussa says... fuggedaboudit!
he was HBP
This is a play
(he says sarcastically)
maybe if they were better
by age3in82 on Dec 18, 2006 1:45 PM EST reply actions
The problem is
Soup...
What does a guy have to do to become a "good player"?
Wrestle an alligator....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 18, 2006 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
You're right
For the Cardinals...
They have the money and they are very close to being a contender for the championship again in 2007. Wells, Wainwright, Reyes all have potential, but I think it's safe to say that at least one of them will either get hurt or perform at replacement level. The Cardinals would be foolish to walk away from almost a sure thing when they have the money to spend.
And a 3/30 really isn't that much for a pitcher anymore. Batista got 3/24. Lilly got 4/40. Eaton got 3/24...
So you're telling me
It's more
Why not buy a toyota at a toyota price?
He will be overpaid as compared to whom? If we offered say, 3 years 33million is he overpaid?
Maybe as compared to a rookie, but not as compared to the market. The market (as I am defining it) is free agent pitchers available this year. So what should Soup be making?
To continue the analogy... Toyotas are really valuable. They are reliable and hold their value well. We already have a ferrari (Carp) and two other sports cars (Wainwright and Reyes). It would be nice to have a Toyota to provide the reliability that we need. Also the Toyota has some great features like team leadership and a propensity to win really big games (like two game sevens).
So I ask, how much is too much to pay for Soup? I would try to keep it to 3 years, but I think it is reasonable to pay up to 12 mil per year.
Listen
Carp
Reyes
Wainwright
Wells
So we have five choices right now. 1. Resign Suppan 2. Resign Weaver 3. Resign Mulder 4. Resign other 5. Looper in rotation
Personally, choices 1 and 2 are a wash. I say this because everyone can only argue Suppans big game 7's but since the weave came up big in the postseason, it's a wash. Mulder is an anomoly since no one knows what will happen with him. Crystal ball predicts that if we keep him he will be bad, but if he goes, he will be awesome. (Law of the Shaft) Choice 4 has plenty of gambles but they could pay off more than resigning Suppan. Choice 5 is good to have plenty of competition in ST but otherwise foolish.
My point is simple. Don't overpay for league-average. We could probably sign two pitcher's off the scrap heap for 3/15 and they will probably be better or equal to Suppan.
10 mil...
Look...
Jamie Moyer:
>200 innings the last two years
ERA+ of 101 and 102
$6mm for his age 44 season
Batista:
around 200 innings the last two years he was a starter
ERA+ of 101 and 104
estimated $8.3mm for his age 36 season
Woody Williams:
190, 160, and 145 innings the past three years ERA+ 100, 79, 116
$6.25mm for his age 40 season
Maddux:
>200 innings four years in a row
ERA+ 101-113
$10mm for his age 41 season
Soup'll be 32 next year... He's preferable to all these guys, imo
Marquis
I think league average now costs about 10 million. I would not be upset if we paid that to Soup as long as you don't go over 3 years.
I would also think that we could be fine with resigning Weaver or picking up Redman. Beyond that I am not sure who these "league average" pitchers are who are a dime a dozen.
Ohka, Armas, Pineiro? I don't believe that you can get any of them for 3 year 5 mil. And even if you could, Soup offers much more stability and I would be willing to pay an extra 5 mil a year for that.
My point is you know what you're getting with Soup so there is much less risk you're going to significantly overpay. With any of these other guys (Weaver) included, I think there is a much higher risk that you will significantly overpay. If you are overpaying for Soup at least you are only slightly overpaying.
I understand every point
I completely agree...
Well, IMO, I'd rephrase that to be
My Rephrase
or
"I don't think a ERA of 4.12 in 06 is worth 10mil/yr"
Supp of the day...
If your only Starting Pitching options come April were:
1) Pay Supp as much as ~$10M per year for 3 years and get Carp/Supp/Reyes/Wainwright/Wells
or
2) Start the season with 1 ace (Carp), 2 "small" question marks (Reyes and Wainwright), 1 trash heap reclamation project (Wells), and Looper
...which one gives us the better chance of making the postseason in '07?
Personally, I think it's #1.
Naturally, it's not a completely fair question since we still have a "chance" at Weaver and/or Mulder, but OCCardsFan's Toyota analogy is a really good one, IMHO.
Know what I'd really like to see?
Carp/Weaver/Supp/Reyes/Wainwright/Wells
Then we've got the necessary depth needed to absorb the inevitable loss of one starter.
Can we afford that? I think so, with the right contracts to Supp and Weaver.
I would agree
...and I am not saying he isn't good. He's just a four guy who is a five guy on good teams and a two guy on teams that win 83 games. He's the Tino Martinez of pitching...nice to have at a low price but a liability at a high price.
playoff god
Let's face it, he is the best guy available, and one of the best guys period to have pitching after carpenter in a playoff series. if carp loses, soup brings much needed stability the following night. if carp wins, soup is a knockout punch. he is an innings eater during the season and great trade material for a playoff team if we get frustrated with a $10 mil./yr contract.
there is very little risk with suppan. every other guy being talked about has tons of risk.
by age3in82 on Dec 18, 2006 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
Call me crazy,
Of course, this is all depending on him gaining a 3rd and 4th pitch, and being able to use them effectively.
I still think the market will even out...
Not that we are sacrificing much, I'm still of the belief that if our Birds can remain healthy, they are still easily the best team in the NL Central, and Top 3 in the NL.
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 18, 2006 4:02 PM EST reply actions
Squawk
"What the hell just happened, we spent the most money and we still came in third in the Central?! The problem is we don't have any room to buy more at (fill in roster spot) cause we have to pay Lilly and Marquis! We are screwed for a long time!"
unlikely
I love the car analogy. Suppan is definitely a Toyota - lots of miles and very reliable. The scrap heap is full of Big3 and Korean imports - vehicles which look like good deals but break down often. They're just not worth the frustration.
At 32, Suppan is definitely worth AT LEAST what Bautista got in this market. This market is only going to get worse in the next few years, not better.
Even with a 4 year contract, being the innings eater and playoff god that he is, suppan will always have trade value - even at 34 or 35 years old - that will give us flexability if we get frustrated with his contract. Let's make the offer now and stop acting like we've got better options.
by age3in82 on Dec 18, 2006 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
hey guayzami
Get off...
We're down to the forth-best Jason on the free agent market. After this, it's Bulger.




















