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looper duper

ok, i'll play along; braden looper, starting pitcher. fine. disbelief hereby suspended. should it come to pass, how unusual would the conversion be?

keep in mind, this wouldn't be the typical reliever-to-starter trajectory. you couldn't compare it to, say, curt schilling's --- schilling made 100 relief appearances at the beginning of his big-league career, but he'd been a starter all the way up the minor-league ladder, making 100+ starts. looper made 12, none above class A. on the same basis, derek lowe is another non-precedent; although he made nearly 300 big-league relief appearances before becoming a full-time starter (and even led the league in saves one year), lowe spent 7 years in minor-league rotations, starting at every level. conversions of that type are fairly common; johan santana and francisco liriano both took that path, and adam wainwright likely will join their ranks in 2007. but looper isn't a starting pitcher who'll be returning to his accustomed role after a few years' holiday in the bullpen; he's a pure reliever who hasn't started a game in nearly a decade, at any level --- he has made 571 major-league relief appearances and 0 major-league starts.

so the question is, how many guys appeared primarily in relief in the minor leagues, and exclusively so upon reaching the majors --- and then became starting pitchers? in two hours of trolling on baseball-reference.com and the baseball cube, i only found a few such careers that even remotely fit that description.

one belongs to byung-hyun kim, who after an abbreviated minor-league career made 236 relief appearances in his first five major-league seasons. like looper he became a closer, but his two blown saves in the 2001 world series tainted him forever; he closed for another couple of seasons but never commanded much trust. in 2003 he made 12 starts and was pretty good in the role (3.38 era, 1.194 whip); he spent most of 2004 in the minors as a starting pitcher, then resurfaced with the rockies in 2005-06 as a so-so starting pitcher. in 65 career starts, he is 17-28 with a 4.81 era.

another somewhat comparable case is omar daal's. like looper, he began his minor-league career as a starter but switched to relief as he moved up the chain; above rookie ball, he made 62 appearances out of the bullpen, vs only 14 starts. for his first five years in the majors, daal toiled in the most specialized role in baseball, LOOGY (ie, "left-handed one-out guy"); wasn't particularly good at it, but a left-hander can always find work. his first 156 major-league appearances came in relief; in september 1996, the end of daal's fourth year in the majors, felipe alou gave him six starts, and daal went 2-3 with a 5.18 era. he returned to the bullpen in 1997 and was beyond awful, posting a 9.15 era in 39 games. that september (now pitching for toronto) he returned to the rotation and pitched very well in 3 starts. the diamondbacks took him in the expansion draft, and he made 23 starts for them in 1998 and posted the national league's 5th-best era at 2.88. the following year he went 16-9 and was the #2 starter on a 100-win team. he stunk in 2000 --- 4-19 record, 6.14 era --- but bounced back the next couple of years to pitch at a league-average level.

then there's charlie hough, who made 78 starts in the minors but converted to full-time bullpen work at triple A; 154 of his last 160 minor-league games were in relief. he then spent 9 years as a big-league reliever; picked up 23 starts along the way but was waved in 400+ times out of the pen. at age 34, he became a regular member of a rotation for the first time in 13 years --- and he thrived. for the next seven seasons he was a rock-solid starter, winning between 14 and 18 games a season with better-than-average eras. a knuckleballer, hough pitched until age 46, long enough to win 174 games as a starting pitcher.

because he threw a gimmick pitch, hough doesn't provide a useful precedent imho; nor does wilbur wood, who became a great starting pitcher after 350 or so relief appearances. various other guys kinda sorta fit the profile --- ron villone, bob stanley, scott garrelts, and jeff brantley all took shots at the rotation after lengthy stints as bullpen specialists. one of dave duncan's success stories, kent bottenfield, has been touted as a precedent by some people, but his case isn't comparable; bottenfield was a starting pitcher throughout the minors and reached the big leagues as a starter. he was only three years removed from rotation duty when duncan returned him there in 1998.

looper's predecessor in the stl bullpen, julian tavarez, provides an intriguing comparison. he has gone back and forth between roles his whole career --- made 80+ starts in minors and started 8 of his first 9 big-league games, but then switched to relief and spent 5 1/2 seasons in the role, making 338 appearances out of the pen. the rockies converted tavarez back into a starter in july 2000, and he did rather well for a season and a half: 15-12 record, 4.12 era, 1.45 whip, excellent numbers for a coors field pitcher. he then went back to bullpen for another 250 appearances before winding up in the boston rotation last september. he pitched very well in six starts, so much so that The Hardball Times declared "the Red Sox front office would be smart to let him battle for a slot in the rotation in Spring Training."

that was before the sox signed matsuzuka, but still . . . . . those guys at Hardball Times are pretty smart. you don't suppose this could actually work? sure it could; sure. i can see it: looper wins 20 games, and rick ankiel hits 25 homers as the starting right fielder, and the cards repeat. when eckstein's contract runs out after 2007, anthony reyes takes over at shortstop; when edmonds retires, adam ottavino is the new centerfielder.

you just gotta think outside the box . . . .

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RICK
AND WE COULD HAVE RICK ANKIEL IN THE OUTFIELD!!!!

OH, WAIT...

by TOLAXOR on Dec 18, 2006 8:28 AM EST reply actions  

all the lefties
must be foaming at the mouth of the prospect of looper in the rotation in 07

by erik on Dec 18, 2006 8:39 AM EST reply actions  

Let's be honest....
he can't be any worse vs lefties than Weaver....right?
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 18, 2006 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

maybe
i don't remember seeing the alleged 4 pitches. from what little i got on tv i saw fastball, slider...both around the same speed.

by erik on Dec 18, 2006 5:54 PM EST up reply actions  

on the other hand
the Post-Dispatch story yesterday did have one very intriguing number. After the all-star break last year, Looper did much, much better against lefties: .196 average, .255 slugging percentage. Yeah, it's a small sample size (60 AB), but I'm willing to entertain the possibility that Duncan's magic might be playing a role.

No baby yet, Erik?

by DCGreg on Dec 18, 2006 9:22 AM EST up reply actions  

I was not aware of that...
that's pretty impressive.  Duncan and the defense might be helping him, but its tough to ignore the .306 lefties have put up against him in his big league career... and that's only going through the lineup once... imagine if they get to see him multiple times... ooosh.
o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 9:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Hmmm...
... for me it is something strange, the Cards are not so much in the need to ship Looper to the rotation. It is true, Naverson it is not yet ML ready, but it would be by far a better and safer choice to have him or Thompson in the rotation instead of Looper. So, why pushing for Looper, if not for a genuine trust in his abilities? I see only an alternative: they consider the chances to suck as a starter the same for Thompson, Looper and Naverson, so they prefer to risk a veteran that can handle failure much better, and that can return later to the bullpen, than to risk a young possible good starter. AND, IMHO, they are sure about a Mulder comeback, so even if Looper sucks, it is gonna be just for a limited number of games. And, in case Mulder sucks as well, then Naverson and Thompson will be more experienced and they'll be in the position to take the #5 spot in the rotation.

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Dec 18, 2006 8:41 AM EST reply actions  

For awhile
I was willing to accept this as complete posturing for a trade or signing. At this point, I am starting to believe this is actually a possibility.

Maybe that's just the "posturing" working it's magic, but I don't think so.

One thing I have decided though is whoever you are trying to convince (whoever you would actually benefit from having that mindframe, I'm actually still not sure who this is) that you don't need starting pitching, saying that Looper was slotted in would have the exact opposite affect.

I mean, nothing screams desperation like, "Braden Looper is the fifth starter," does it?

by plh903 on Dec 18, 2006 9:16 AM EST reply actions  

"slotted in"
But they aren't saying that.  Just that Loop will be in the mix to compete for that 5th slot.

('Course the other folks that are in that competition at this time don't exactly seem to be ones that'd strike fear into the heart of opposing batters, either.)

by ArkansasTravs on Dec 18, 2006 11:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Something that screams desperation...
how about "Braden Looper: Staff Ace?"
o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

I really don't know...
I asked this before, but I really don't know  How many pitches does Looper even have?  A 4-seamer for sure, I think maybe he has a splitter?  Maybe a hard slider?  Does Looper have any offspeed pitches or the weapons to get through the lineup multiple times?

Those aren't meant to be rhetorical, I really don't know his complete repitoir(sp?)

Also, why isn't Brad Thompson's name being thrown around with the same intensity as Looper's?  Isn't he just (I'm not looking it up) 2-3 seasons away from breaking the AA consecutive scorless innings record as a starter?  How about Thompson?

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 9:21 AM EST reply actions  

if memory serves
Thompson was also mentioned in the original article that the Looper thing came from.  I think that's getting less discussion time because it's not such a completely off the wall idea.  There's no controversy/outrage attached to the idea of Thompson becoming the 5 starter.

by mtalken on Dec 18, 2006 9:23 AM EST up reply actions  

OK, Good...
That's what I was thinking... Looper was getting the attention because he's just a completely absurd option.

In a related topic... Izzy was a starter for parts of 4 big league seasons.  He even has 3 complete games to his credit.  Make it happen.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 9:30 AM EST up reply actions  

supposedly
Looper has four, but I don't know what they are.

by DCGreg on Dec 18, 2006 9:24 AM EST up reply actions  

3-4 quality pitches...
From the P-D article today:

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/FC50C1483F67945D86257247001716F7 ?OpenDocument

' "He's durable. He's stronger," Jocketty said. "He has three or four quality pitches that he could better use in a starting role. Dave Duncan feels very strongly that he has all the assets it takes to be a quality starter." '

...

' ...miles have dropped off Looper's 98-mph fastball. He has become more reliant on his slider and has developed a split-finger fastball.'

Sounds like heater, slider, splitter and one other (curve? change? Eephus? No, probably not the Eephus, I'd remember that.)

by punditmoi on Dec 18, 2006 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Reyes in center!
Just think, he could throw that sweet 2-seamer Duncan taught him into the cut-off man.

by mtalken on Dec 18, 2006 9:21 AM EST reply actions  

Sarcasm...
does not become you lboros.  At least not until mid-season.  

by raisin @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 18, 2006 9:36 AM EST reply actions  

Don't you mean
Ankiel wins 20 games, and Looper hits 25 homers as the starting RF?

by plh903 on Dec 18, 2006 9:40 AM EST reply actions  

tom-ay-to
to-mah-to.
o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 9:41 AM EST up reply actions  

No, you see..
Ankiel is in the rotation, and on his off days, he starts in the outfield--he's gonna be a 20/20 guy--twenty wins, twenty homers.

by Valatan on Dec 18, 2006 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Why not Hancock?
For all the talk of Looper switching to the rotation, I haven't heard one person suggest it be Hancock instead.

Now I'm not saying Hancock is preferable to Narveson or someone off the scrap heap - but I do know he was slighly better than Looper last season in  K/9 and WHIP - over roughly the same IP. Not to mention Hancock has actual experience starting games at the major league level.

This Looper nonsense is either designed to boost his trade value (there sure are some sucker GMs out there as evidenced by this offseason) or to give the impression to whomever (the media, the fans, prospective FA signings and their agents) that we're not desparate (although a team that trots Looper out there as a starter is by definition desperate).

by musial6 on Dec 18, 2006 9:41 AM EST reply actions  

Hancock
I read somewhere (yet I don't remeber where - maybe the Post-Dispatch?) that LaRussa ruled out the possibility of Hancock or Kinney being used as starters.
"I only am who I am because I was born that way. I have a gift and I'm trying to not be selfish about it, but to use it, OK? Jealousy will get you nowhere!"

by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Dec 18, 2006 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Smokescreen
I think this is something made up by Tony and Walt to give us something to talk about while nothing is going on. Otherwise, there is NO NEWS. When is the last time we heard anything of substance? The Springer Deal?
How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Dec 18, 2006 9:42 AM EST reply actions  

Or maybe to try to get some leverage...
For negotiating against agents for Suppan and Weaver who I'm sure feel as though they have the Cards' backs against the walls in negotitations.

by airhad on Dec 18, 2006 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

If we are thinking outside the box...
then why not Ankiel as a starting pitcher! No one would guess that now!

by JMedwick on Dec 18, 2006 9:43 AM EST reply actions  

Sarcasm II
You do realize that you just gave some of the dumb people who post here more ammo.  I can see it now "Let's bring back the pitcher who plays outfield on his off days" or "If we can get Ankiel in the OF maybe we can get him to start then if he does that well we can trade him to Minnesota for Santana".  I love some of the unrealisitic scenarios some of these people come up with.  Thanks for adding fuel to the fire.  Before you know it, we'll be dealing Looper and Encarnacion for Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels.
"I only am who I am because I was born that way. I have a gift and I'm trying to not be selfish about it, but to use it, OK? Jealousy will get you nowhere!"

by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Dec 18, 2006 9:44 AM EST reply actions  

Again no love for Stewart
Dave Stewart is pretty close to being the centerpiece of Duncan's resume (tough arguement Carp vs Stewart), yet continues to get no love.

He doesn't quite fit the profile, but did flip back and forth between starting and pen-work in the minors.  Switched a little in the majors prior to working under LaDunc, but mostly just relieved.  Then, became Duncan's project and finished 4x in the top 5 Cy Young votes.

I know he's not a complete comp for Looper, but he's closer than a lot of the other guys...especially when considering it's the same pitching coach.  

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/Dave-Stewart.shtml

by RedbirdRay on Dec 18, 2006 9:47 AM EST reply actions  

doesn't seem comparable
stewart made 55 starts at triple A and had made more than 50 starts in the big leagues before duncan "converted" him to starting duty . . . . i credit duncan/la russa for an outstanding salvage job (i lived in the east bay at that time), but the case doesn't seem comparable to looper's.

by lboros on Dec 18, 2006 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

How about Bruce Chen?
Why not offer him a 1 year deal? His career stats mimic those of Suppan and Weaver, and he'll cost alot less. In the Puerto Rican winter leagues this year he has gone 4-0 with a .63 ERA, and in 2005 in the major leagues he posted an ERA in the mid 3's. I think he'd be worth a shot.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 18, 2006 9:59 AM EST reply actions  

Plan A, B, C
Let's try to guess what Walt's plan A, B, and C are.

Plan A
Re-Sign Edmonds, Speizio, Bennett
Sign Soriano, Padilla, Wolf, Wells

Plan B
Resignings and Wells complete, (Soriano out of range, Wolf and Padilla failed)
Sign Kennedy, Schmidt, Bautista, Meche

Plan C
Resignings, Wells and Kennedy complete
(Schmidt ,Bautista, and Meche failed)
Sign Springer and move AW to rotation, Mulder and ?????? (Weaver, Huff, Werth, Pavano, Ohka, Armas, Piniero)

 

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Dec 18, 2006 9:59 AM EST reply actions  

Plan L:
Looper to the rotation.

But, if Dunc sees something than I think we should wait and see what happens in ST.

by stl4all on Dec 18, 2006 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

LB, the beauty of that last paragraph you wrote
is that if any of it comes to pass, you'll look like a genius.  And if none of it does-- well, we knew it was sarcasm anyway.

For the record, I'll go against the grain on this one.  Just given that Looper was a servicable closer for 2-3 years, I think he can become a quite capable #4 starter.

He called fate's bluff on a cool New York night, October 19th, 2006.

by Number47 on Dec 18, 2006 10:47 AM EST reply actions  

Reyes
moves really well to his right and, of course, he has a gun coming up from the hole. I'm a little concerned, however, about the possibility he'll be throwing changeups to AP while trying to complete the twin killing. Sometimes he throws the change at the most inappropriate moments...

by Pokey Joe on Dec 18, 2006 10:53 AM EST reply actions  

Hoyt Wilhelm
If you go back even further into baseball history, you'll find that Wilhelm, the greatest knuckleballer of them all, became a starter for the first time in his 40's and quite a good one too; he even pitched a no-hitter.  This suggests to me that the lesson for Looper is teach him the knuckle ball and wait until he turns 40!

by MikeG on Dec 18, 2006 10:55 AM EST reply actions  

I think this is all negotiating ploys...
Walt is smart. He has TLR on the same page. This is all media babble to try to get more leverage in negotitations with FA pitchers. Whoever the FA might be. Any agent for a FA pitcher salivates when negotitating with the Cards because he thinks the Cards are so desperately in need.

by airhad on Dec 18, 2006 11:11 AM EST reply actions  

It can also
work against them, for the very same reason. If an agent knows the team is hard up for pitching, he'll do everything he can to drive up the price.

by cardsrul on Dec 18, 2006 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly.
So when TLR and Jocketty say that they don't need pitching because they can convert Wainwright, Looper, B Thompson and Fredbird into starters, they're trying to get the agents to lower their bids.

by airhad on Dec 18, 2006 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Why not try Looper in spring training?
At this point, it doesn't hurt our negotiating position in the innings-eater market to say, "we're willing to consider Looper and other options in spring training."

So far this winter the first priority was not to do anything stupid. Several teams failed that test, but the Cards did not. Note that many of the silliest contracts have been offered by teams that have underperformed, while the Cards have done careful, helpful things - extending Carp, extending Edmonds, adding Kennedy, etc.

by madridbend on Dec 18, 2006 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Value play?
Looper first became a closer because of his 98-mph fastball. He can't throw that anymore. So I have to think that the Cards' decision to try him in another role is a way to see if he has more value in one role than the other.

The fact it's rarely been attempted in baseball history doesn't convince me it can't be done.

There may be conditioning issues involved, and there's certainly injury potential if conditioning isn't handled right.

But why can't a guy move from one role to the other? Pitching is pitching, and if, as the P-D article says, his repertoire has changed with the speed of his fastball, it could be that he's now better suited to starting. If he'd started his pro career with his current abilities, vs. the power he had back in '96, making him a starter might have been seen as the obvious strategy.

Plus, we all know that the remaining FA options for starters aren't particularly attractive. It could be that lots of teams have more potential talent in their bullpens than in the bottom halves of their rotations.

We already know Looper can be a mediocre-to-decent setup guy. I don't see the harm in seeing if he can handle a different role, and give the team more value than he offers in the bullpen. If it doesn't work, he can always go back. If it does work, then we're spared the agony of one or more sub-replacement-level guys in the rotation.

by Lou Schuler on Dec 18, 2006 11:16 AM EST reply actions  

Exactly...
I feel the same way about the first part of what you said, but I have a different conclusion.  He was placed in to short, late-inning relief because of oneplus pitch.  A late-inning reliever needs one dominating pitch to work from and a maybe a couple of others to set it up.  Starters recquire a much larger pitch selection as they will be recquired to make it through the lineup multiple times.

At least Looper tends to be groundball-heavy  and won't have to rely on strikeouts to be successful.  Stranger things have happened, I suppose.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Dec 18, 2006 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Fastball
Looper's fastball was in the 95-96 mph range all year. I wouldn't say he lost a lot of velocity by any means. The problem is that there is no movement on it.

by Carps on Dec 18, 2006 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Who's to say Looper can't be an effective starter?
Could Looper actually make it as a starter? We don't know, of course. That's part of the fun. Spring training and the early season will tell. Trying him out is a lot more creative and interesting than just throwing a ton of money at some mediocre pitcher like Lilly, Meche, et. al.

Check out Looper's stats last year, below, in comparison with Suppan, keeping in mind that Looper was recovering from surgery and he got better all year. His ERA after the All Star break was 3.12.

"As Looper got further and further from surgery he got more and more effective. His trouble with lefties diminished, his slider became more merciless." - Derreck Goold in his PD blog

WHIP 1.31 in 2006 for Looper
WHIP 1.45 in 2006 for Suppan

ERA 3.56 in 2006 for Looper (3.57 lifetime)
ERA 4.12 in 2006 for Suppan

K/9 5.03 in 2006 (5.54 lifetime)
K/9 4.93 in 2006 for Suppan

K/BB 2.05 in 2006 for Looper (1.76 lifetime)
K/BB 1.51 in 2006 for Suppan

Lefties batted .287 in 2006 vs Looper
Lefties batted .302 in 2006 vs Suppan

In all of Looper's 14 regular season appearances this year in which he pitched 2 innings or more, he did not allow any runs and he gave up only 9 hits.

Maybe that 9-3 W-L record was more than luck. Hmmm....

by CardsWin on Dec 18, 2006 11:42 AM EST reply actions  

Impressive numbers..
Do you think we need to worry about whether or not it was smart managing - in other words TLR putting him in a position to succeed?

The idea really intrigues me now that you guys start putting togethe numbers.

by sdrone on Dec 18, 2006 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd hope to heck he'd have better numbers
A reliever who only has to get a few outs (generally with a strong platoon advantage) vs. a SP (who has relatively fewer platoon advantages)?

There is a reason mediocre SP can become great RP:  it's easier.

I'm not saying Looper can't do it, but those numbers tell us nothing.

by OBPplusSLG on Dec 18, 2006 4:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Does Looper have what it takes to start?
Dave Duncan did a great job converting Kent Bottenfield into a full time starter, as well as Dave Stewart. Looper has much better stuff than Bottenfield did, and Bottenfeld had an 18-7 record in 1999 with an ERA of 3.97 in his first year as a fuill time starter since 1993, under Duncan's coaching.

by CardsWin on Dec 18, 2006 11:51 AM EST reply actions  

Why not?
With the excessive costs of bad FA pitchers, I don't see the harm. I mean why not try Looper, or another rookie, or anyone else to fill out the back end? Besides, it's not like they'll be much worse than Marquis at only a fraction of the cost. With a solid line-up and defense, it almost makes no sense to create a good overall rotation at the expense of dominate starters at the top.

Of course, it's easy to say this coming off a WS championship. I'd probably curse Walt's name every day barring any other scenario.

by jimstllax on Dec 18, 2006 12:16 PM EST reply actions  

Off Topic - Dig at Shannon/Rooney?
Just noticed this on Fishstripes, the Marlins blog:
adding an expensive reliever will not bring fans to the park.  It is foolish to think it would.  Next season's attendance probably won't be much different than last season's.  Meaning most everyone will stay at home and watch the team on television.  If you really want to change that, fire Rich and Tommy and hire the Cardinals announcers.  The Marlins fans will quit watching the games on television and head out to the ballpark in droves, just so they don't have to listen to that crap.

What the hell does that mean?

by withoutsound on Dec 18, 2006 12:16 PM EST reply actions  

They seem to be talking about TV
which would mean Hrabosky and McLaughlin, who are intolerable and insufferable, respectively.  Or vice versa.

by blove121 on Dec 18, 2006 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed
...on the talent H&M have for making ears bleed ...but how the heck is someone in Miami picking up KPLR? And why would they want to?

Please don't tell me that MLB.com is streaming the TV broadcast team for their audio feeds.

by withoutsound on Dec 18, 2006 12:27 PM EST up reply actions  

If they're talking
about Dan and Al, then it's the FSN feed they get, not KPLR.

by cardsrul on Dec 18, 2006 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Shannon and Rooney
or Dan and Al?
"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"

by BleacherBum on Dec 18, 2006 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Wilson,Huff,Nixon
just wondering why these guys have not been mentioned. Nixon could be this years hurt guy trying to make a splash role(Womack,Spivey)
and they were once rumored to be in on Huff and Wilson for trades last yr, so why not now?

I think they should still add someone in the OF just my opinion but itd make me feel better.

Not sure thee guys are the answer, but they are available...why not go after wilson for cheap before the yanks re-sign him

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Dec 18, 2006 12:56 PM EST reply actions  

I'd imagine
that unless Duncan is traded, Huff and Nixon aren't great options, as neither is a suitable platoon partner.

I am not sure why Craig Wilson (Preston too) isn't being mentioned as much in this role, he would seem to fit the criteria. I am thinking that unlike pitching, this may be a market to wait out a little. Similar to how the 2B market turned out. Whoever is left between, Werth, Wilson, or Wilson will probably be had fairly cheap. You might see a guy like John Knott, or Richard Hidalgo come in on a minor league deal or something as well, who knows.

My vote goes for Craig. An outfield of Wilson, Encarnacion, and Taguchi (of course Marrero always has an outside shot) looks passable against lefties. It also allows Edmonds to rest and be platooned, as well as Duncan to sit against left-handers.

The downside of Craig is that he isn't a very good defensive replacement.

by plh903 on Dec 18, 2006 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Those don't really excite me
Nixon's best years sure look like they're behind him.  

Huff? I dunno.  I guess at least he's 30ish or younger.   How's his defense?

I just have no desire to bring Wilson back.  Neither his defense nor his offense impressed me.

by sdrone on Dec 18, 2006 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

sorry wasnt clear
i meant craig wilson not preston...a full season of whiffs by preston no thanx, but i think he did have clutch plays in the playoffs for the birds. both d and an occasional big hit
Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Dec 18, 2006 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Jason Werth
Wouldn't Jason Werth be just as good offensively, much better defensively and a whole lot cheaper?

He called fate's bluff on a cool New York night, October 19th, 2006.

by Number47 on Dec 18, 2006 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

He struck out...
114 times in about 390 plate appearances?

Tony LaRussa says... fuggedaboudit!

Acquire Jason Simontacchi!

by guayzimi on Dec 18, 2006 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

he was HBP
AJ Burnett fastball, in spring training, 2005.  It shattered his wrist and he never recovered from that.  He'd be an amazing platoon partner for dunc/JEd if he were to achieve a sudden miraculous healing, but I think he's done.
"...in winter, when there's no baseball... I stare out the window and wait for spring." -Rogers Hornsby

by SleepyCA on Dec 18, 2006 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

This is a play
for Zito. Free up money by putting Looper in the back-end, let weave and soup go, use that money for Zito...easy...

(he says sarcastically)

Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 18, 2006 1:14 PM EST reply actions  

maybe if they were better
this talk of making thompson, looper, or hancock starters would sound more believable to free agent starters and their agents if any of these guys were any good.  wainwright as a starter is at least believable because he's a young stud.  cardinal nation had little faith in looper as a middle reliever.  that making him a starter is even being considered as a serious option by the cardinals is completely insulting to their fan base.  it's time to make 4 year $32 million or 3 year $10 million offers to Suppan.  

by age3in82 on Dec 18, 2006 1:45 PM EST reply actions  

The problem is
suppan is not good. well maybe i'm being too harsh, lets just say he's not worth that money.
Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 18, 2006 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Soup...
has thrown 190 innings in each of the past 3 years, his ERA+ has been 100, 120, and 107, he beat Roger Clemens in a Game 7 one year, he won the NLCS MVP in another year...

What does a guy have to do to become a "good player"?

Acquire Jason Simontacchi!

by guayzimi on Dec 18, 2006 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Wrestle an alligator....
and have atleast three knife fights, to the death, on the mound.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 18, 2006 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

You're right
and those points are well documented here and elsewhere. My point is why buy a Toyota at a Ferrari price? It's not that he's not good, he's just, well Soup. You can't justify his projected salary. Go ahead and try, but there is no good argument for that salary.
Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 18, 2006 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

For the Cardinals...
Soup's worth 3/30. He's exactly what they need. A guy who is as close to a lock for 190 innings and a league average or slightly above average ERA as anyone out there.

They have the money and they are very close to being a contender for the championship again in 2007. Wells, Wainwright, Reyes all have potential, but I think it's safe to say that at least one of them will either get hurt or perform at replacement level. The Cardinals would be foolish to walk away from almost a sure thing when they have the money to spend.

And a 3/30 really isn't that much for a pitcher anymore. Batista got 3/24. Lilly got 4/40. Eaton got 3/24...

Acquire Jason Simontacchi!

by guayzimi on Dec 18, 2006 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

So you're telling me
league average is 10mil per? That's what I have a problem with.
Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 18, 2006 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

It's more
like 8...but what a ring will do to your worth...
Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 18, 2006 5:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Why not buy a toyota at a toyota price?
At what point does the price become average.  I am tired of the argument that Soup will be overpaid.  Saying that begs the question...
He will be overpaid as compared to whom?  If we offered say, 3 years 33million is he overpaid?  
Maybe as compared to a rookie, but not as compared to the market.  The market (as I am defining it) is free agent pitchers available this year.  So what should Soup be making?

To continue the analogy... Toyotas are really valuable.  They are reliable and hold their value well.  We already have a ferrari (Carp) and two other sports cars (Wainwright and Reyes).  It would be nice to have a Toyota to provide the reliability that we need.  Also the Toyota has some great features like team leadership and a propensity to win really big games (like two game sevens).

So I ask, how much is too much to pay for Soup?  I would try to keep it to 3 years, but I think it is reasonable to pay up to 12 mil per year.

by OCCardsFan on Dec 18, 2006 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Listen
I'm not arguing Suppans ability to win two game sevens. But to use the car analogy one more time, a toyota is a dime a dozen. A ferrari is rare and special aka an exotic, a supercar. Right now as it looks
Carp
Reyes
Wainwright
Wells

So we have five choices right now. 1. Resign Suppan 2. Resign Weaver 3. Resign Mulder 4. Resign other 5. Looper in rotation

Personally, choices 1 and 2 are a wash. I say this because everyone can only argue Suppans big game 7's but since the weave came up big in the postseason, it's a wash. Mulder is an anomoly since no one knows what will happen with him. Crystal ball predicts that if we keep him he will be bad, but if he goes, he will be awesome. (Law of the Shaft) Choice 4 has plenty of gambles but they could pay off more than resigning Suppan. Choice 5 is good to have plenty of competition in ST but otherwise foolish.

My point is simple. Don't overpay for league-average. We could probably sign two pitcher's off the scrap heap for 3/15 and they will probably be better or equal to Suppan.

Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 18, 2006 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

10 mil...
isn't an overpay...

Look...

Jamie Moyer:
>200 innings the last two years
ERA+ of 101 and 102
$6mm for his age 44 season

Batista:
around 200 innings the last two years he was a starter
ERA+ of 101 and 104
estimated $8.3mm for his age 36 season

Woody Williams:
190, 160, and 145 innings the past three years ERA+ 100, 79, 116
$6.25mm for his age 40 season

Maddux:
>200 innings four years in a row
ERA+ 101-113
$10mm for his age 41 season

Soup'll be 32 next year... He's preferable to all these guys, imo

Acquire Jason Simontacchi!

by guayzimi on Dec 18, 2006 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Marquis
Just got 3 years at 7 per year so I don't think you're going to find much for 3 years 5 per year.

I think league average now costs about 10 million.  I would not be upset if we paid that to Soup as long as you don't go over 3 years.

I would also think that we could be fine with resigning Weaver or picking up Redman.  Beyond that I am not sure who these "league average" pitchers are who are a dime a dozen.  

Ohka, Armas, Pineiro?  I don't believe that you can get any of them for 3 year 5 mil.  And even if you could, Soup offers much more stability and I would be willing to pay an extra 5 mil a year for that.  

My point is you know what you're getting with Soup so there is much less risk you're going to significantly overpay.  With any of these other guys (Weaver) included, I think there is a much higher risk that you will significantly overpay.  If you are overpaying for Soup at least you are only slightly overpaying.

by OCCardsFan on Dec 18, 2006 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I understand every point
you make. It makes sense. You do know what you're getting with Suppan. This is what I would like to see. Everyone is always bitching about not having a true #2 starter. Suppan is not a #2 no matter how you try to bend it. He is not a "knockout" punch. (4.60 career ERA) I would like for Walt and Co to get a #2. Granted he's not out there right now. He could be out there before the trade deadline though. If not we can get plenty of middle of the rotation guys. Mulder to me is the biggest gamble but has the biggest potential.(#2) Weaver under duncan could flourish or fail, again gamble. Suppan is Suppan no gamble. So I say who's your horse? You gonna take that sure bet? Or you want to take that gamble?
Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 18, 2006 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I completely agree...
Who cares what the market is dictating for a FA pitcher in 2007 MLB dollars? You can't put a price on payroll flexibility. The best dollar value for the cards is with home grown players and reclamation projects - at least with pitchers. This also gives us the possibility of adding payroll midseason or leveraging a trade in ST when a team has a reality check that the extra $30mm in untradeable inflated contracts they recently acquired is a problem...and now they need to trade someone else.

by airhad on Dec 18, 2006 8:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, IMO, I'd rephrase that to be
"I don't think Suppan is good enough to justify $10m/year."

by sdrone on Dec 18, 2006 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

My Rephrase
 "I don't think a career ERA of 4.60 is worth 10mil/yr"
or
"I don't think a ERA of 4.12 in 06 is worth 10mil/yr"
Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 18, 2006 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Supp of the day...
While my position on Supp is on record, perhaps we should turn the question around, thusly:

If your only Starting Pitching options come April were:

1) Pay Supp as much as ~$10M per year for 3 years and get Carp/Supp/Reyes/Wainwright/Wells

 or

2) Start the season with 1 ace (Carp), 2 "small" question marks (Reyes and Wainwright), 1 trash heap reclamation project (Wells), and Looper

...which one gives us the better chance of making the postseason in '07?

Personally, I think it's #1.

Naturally, it's not a completely fair question since we still have a "chance" at Weaver and/or Mulder, but OCCardsFan's Toyota analogy is a really good one, IMHO.

Know what I'd really like to see?
Carp/Weaver/Supp/Reyes/Wainwright/Wells

Then we've got the necessary depth needed to absorb the inevitable loss of one starter.

Can we afford that?  I think so, with the right contracts to Supp and Weaver.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Dec 18, 2006 4:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I would agree
Sup is Sup. He is "Mostly Harmless" That's what a 100 ERA+ is. Doesn't help doesn't hurt. At $4M/YR (adjusted to $6M/yr now) he would be perfect...BUT...at $10M/yr he would no longer be "Mostly Harmless" but would be part of the problem. You can't tie up that kind of money to hope that he continues to be average. I think it's safe to say that he wont go Steve Stone on us and win the Cy Young any time soon so he can only get worse.

...and I am not saying he isn't good. He's just a four guy who is a five guy on good teams and a two guy on teams that win 83 games. He's the Tino Martinez of pitching...nice to have at a low price but a liability at a high price.

by Harknights on Dec 18, 2006 5:22 PM EST up reply actions  

playoff god
Soup totally helps us.  He is by no means average in the second half of the season, or in the post-season.  that's when everything matters most.  he is a #3 guy, not a 4 or 5.  he is not a liability.

Let's face it, he is the best guy available, and one of the best guys period to have pitching after carpenter in a playoff series.  if carp loses, soup brings much needed stability the following night.  if carp wins, soup is a knockout punch.  he is an innings eater during the season and great trade material for a playoff team if we get frustrated with a $10 mil./yr contract.

there is very little risk with suppan.  every other guy being talked about has tons of risk.

by age3in82 on Dec 18, 2006 5:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Call me crazy,
but I think Loop might have an outside shot to be a servicable starter. He didn't pitch well in pressure situations last year. Let him start a game, get into a groove, and not have to come in in a high-pressure, do-or-die situation. I highly doubt Loop will make it to opening day as a starter, but I think he could do halfway decent.

Of course, this is all depending on him gaining a 3rd and 4th pitch, and being able to use them effectively.

by Jhusk on Dec 18, 2006 4:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I still think the market will even out...
either next year or the year after, and alot of teams will be stuck with huge albatross contracts for mediocre players that they can't get rid of. Which is why i'm not all that upset that the Cardinals have stood still for the most part this offseason. I'll gladly sacrifice one season to prevent hurting the next 3.

Not that we are sacrificing much, I'm still of the belief that if our Birds can remain healthy, they are still easily the best team in the NL Central, and Top 3 in the NL.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 18, 2006 4:02 PM EST reply actions  

Squawk
I can't wait till after next year when the Cubs are going.
"What the hell just happened, we spent the most money and we still came in third in the Central?! The problem is we don't have any room to buy more at (fill in roster spot) cause we have to pay Lilly and Marquis! We are screwed for a long time!"
Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 18, 2006 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

unlikely
next year's agents are even more desirable than this year's.  the market will be even more inflated next year, and we will miss out on a #2 starter again.  so let's let our #2 (reyes or wainright) develop from within and pick up our #3 - Suppan - now.  He is by far the best guy available to have pitching after Carpenter in any playoff series.  If Carpenter falters, Suppan provides huge stability.  If Carpenter wins, Suppan is the knockout punch.  The very fact that Delgado hits like .180 off Soup gives me huge confidence, as we will probably have to face the Mets again next post-season, and Delgado destroys us.

I love the car analogy.  Suppan is definitely a Toyota - lots of miles and very reliable.  The scrap heap is full of Big3 and Korean imports - vehicles which look like good deals but break down often.  They're just not worth the frustration.

At 32, Suppan is definitely worth AT LEAST what Bautista got in this market.  This market is only going to get worse in the next few years, not better.

Even with a 4 year contract, being the innings eater and playoff god that he is, suppan will always have trade value - even at 34 or 35 years old - that will give us flexability if we get frustrated with his contract.  Let's make the offer now and stop acting like we've got better options.

by age3in82 on Dec 18, 2006 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Get off...
your a** Jocketty!

We're down to the forth-best Jason on the free agent market. After this, it's Bulger.

Acquire Jason Johnson!

by guayzimi on Dec 18, 2006 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

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