Mulling Mulder
Goold reports that no matter what, St. Louis is considered to be right at the top of the list for Mulder's services. Mulder's agent also says that Mulder could make 21-25 starts next season. :Warning, agent talk!: We all remember Swamp Gas of '06, messy mechanics, hidden injuries and the club slogging him along through his pains rather then correctly diagnosing them. Maybe the Indians have the right angle in their pursuit of Mulder, pumping their medical and training staffs ability to reclaim talent rather then further destroy it, which is pretty much what the Cardinals did last season, as well documented by lboros this past July.
I could still see St. Louis as an attractive place for him, given Duncan's expertise and he's the already the devil he knows. He also knows the city, the fans, etc. Winning a ring last season doesn't hurt, even if he was only a spectator.
But can he come back? The last words a pitcher ever wants to hear is 'frayed labrum'. In Will Carroll's regular article Under the Knife, it doesn't sound so good.
Mark Mulder had successful surgery last week, but what does that mean? All surgery where the problem is corrected and the patient wakes up can be qualified as successful. What Cards fans want to know is if Mulder might come back as something near what he was. (Of course, Cards fans might not care if Walt Jocketty elects to let Mulder move on.) Mulder had a repair of his shoulder, specifically focused on the rotator cuff. The expected debridement became more significant once the shoulder was visualized, making this surgery much more like the 2005 surgery on Kerry Wood than the 2003 surgery on Matt Morris. Mulder faces a long road and a likely change in style when he does return. If he needs inspiration, he should look to Chris Carpenter, a guy who came back from worse to be a Cy Young favorite
Morris came back rather quickly, but he went from a top of the rotation pitcher to bottom of the rotation guy, posting an ERA of 4.98 for San Fran last season. As we're familiar with, Mo doesn't have the ability to follow up a 69 mph bender with a mid-nineties heater like he did in his glory days. If Mulder's injury was worse, then don't expect him to go back to throwing 91-92 as he did in Oakland.
It's not just Mulder's shoulder I'm concerned with, it's his back. (See this article at BTF for an great breakdown of Mulder's mechanics.) It was his injured back that many believed is what considerably slowed his delivery and put the strain on his shoulder. So even if his shoulder is ok, if that root problem is still there, he's going to still have that slow delivery, thus losing more on what might be left on his fastball, thus killing his shoulder again.
The fact that the Cards are interested in bringing him back shows faith that he can or will be alright, but they already missed it so many times with Mulder, it's hard to trust their judgment. I guess I'm worried Mulder could be on the Steve Avery career path, which is pretty freakin' scary. But if anyone can help Mulder reinvent himself, it would be Dunc. He was already reinventing him in an extreme groundballer in '05. Oh, and congrats to Mulder and best wishes with his new misses. [editor's note, by erik] BTW, speaking of misseses (is that a word?), my wife is 9 months pregnant and can go into labor any day now. So if you don't see any posts by me here for a weekend or so, you'll know Cardinal nation just got a little bigger.
57 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Congratulations Erik
Re: Mulder. That's my biggest worry. His mechanics were shot to hell and I'm not convinced that he's gonna be fixed. I hadn't remembered Carroll's reference to Wood but that's my fear. With the Cardinal's rotation as thin as it is I'm not sure we can afford to take someone on who will most likely miss a 1/3 of their starts from the beginning of the season. I don't have high hopes for Mulder making it back to the bigs and even less hope of him being anything more than a back-end starter.
Why wouldn't the Cardinals be able to afford it?
I'd hate to see what they'd be willing to throw that $16m around at right now if not Mulder. They've given up on Suppan and I'd imagine they aren't willing to go over $8m on Weaver. Mulder would most likely see a 2-year deal (2nd year an option) for around $18m, 8 this year, 10 next.
Might as well take the risk, they've already invested enough 'talent' in aquiring Mulder. A healthy Mark Mulder, in this market, is a $10-15 million pitcher. Getting him for less is the 'Cardinals way' it seems.
I'd feel better in the Cardinals investing in Mark Mulder than what else is left on the heap. As management, consider it sunk cost, $18 m that is 'lost' for the next two seasons but has the potential for a return.
Right now, best case scenerio barring trades for the rotation is:
Carpenter
Wells
Weaver
Reyes
Wainwright
If they don't resign Weaver, then it gets murkier and potentially much more scary. I'd like to have Mulder as a potential back-up plan than Joel Pineiro, Tomo Ohka or Tony Armas Jr.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 17, 2006 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
If Mulder truly believes
If he has doubts, the long term contract Texas was rumoured to offer would probably be better.
He probably can't expect to have head-turning stats this year. I'm sure he will go through some tired arm periods and control issues like Morris did his first year off of surgery. A two year deal would be about right to re-establish himself and prime himself to get paid next time he's up for free agency.
Congrats!
If Mulder has a new wife around telling him what to do, and he really is getting a multi-year offer from his home town team, why would he go anywhere else?
Mrs. Mulder
p.s. Congratulations!
by tjeng on Dec 16, 2006 10:52 PM EST reply actions
Congrats, Erik
I had forgotten about that breakdown of Mulder's delivery. It's pretty compelling. All in all, I think the case you make shows why any offer to Mulder should be heavy on the incentives.
Baby Season...
It must be something in the water but this is like the 6th baby I know of amoung friends and acquaintances in the past few months.
He's worth a year with an option.
It's nearly impossible to figure out which came first, the chicken or the egg, when it comes to pitching mechanics. Look, Mark was probably pitching with a torn rotator cuff for most of the year. All of this overthinking into his mechanics goes for naught in my opinion, once the rotator cuff tear was found. I'm very surprised that Mulder did not end up with an elbow injury due to the fact that his shoulder was not strong enough to allow him to stay in a consistent arm slot above shoulder level. Rotator cuff pathology/weakness is often the cause of ulnar collateral ligament injuries in the elbow.
I truly believe that Mulder will contribute significantly to a team later on in '07 and definitely in '08. Let's hope that he's wearing birds on a bat when he does.
Congratulations Erik
Enjoyed the post.
actually....
below-average, 5+ ERA....who cares? 50 MIL!
If the kid's gonna catch...
by Quietude on Dec 17, 2006 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
Better yet if he's gonna pitch, make him
by Number47 on Dec 18, 2006 2:06 AM EST up reply actions
congrats erik
try as hard as you can to make sure the boy is hard throwing lefty. i think the team will need one coming out of the pen to close in about 20 years. I'm doing what I can do to make sure my two nephews that are 2 and 3 will be players as well. the oldest will be a hard throwing lefty that will start. and the youngest with his body type will deffinalty be a power hitting corner outfielder or infielder. :-)
one can dream can't he?
as for Mulder, if I've said it once, I've said it a freakin 1000 times. the Cards gave up Danny, Kiko and a power hitter named Barton for Mulder. that's way, WAY to much talent to let Mulder walk after two years. Unless that left arm of Marks falls off, I am confident he will come back and be just as good, if not better than before he got hurt. with Dave helping him get his mechanics back, Mark will be fine. they cannot let him walk. they just can't. when you give up 3 young players of that caliber for one guy, you are making a big commitment to that guy. so Walt & Co need to step up and show Mark they won't let him go without a fight. they need to step up and make the commitment to him and his new wife that the team is serious about him being a Cardinal for a long time. I know he wants to be a free agent again, but that's a bad deal for the Cardinals. give him the two year deal, but make sure there is something on the end so he won't get away that easily. something like a two or three year team or mutual option. i don't know. be creative Walt. it's what you are paid to do.
Don't let him go Walt. Don't let him go.
holy effing crap
be afraid. be very afraid,,,,
I still think...
I'm trying to
Looper may be more effective as a starter
I think it's an exciting possibility. But not as exciting as it might have been to have obtained Jason Schmidt.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 18, 2006 8:13 AM EST up reply actions
reminds me of the ponson
Hate to admit...
Going into the season with 6 legitimate starters should be mandatory. Reyes had options, and that made him the most reasonable candidate for the 6th spot. This year Wainwright would be ideal for that role, if we could resign Suppan and Weaver, or trade for someone similar.
looper as a starter
idk
im all for reaquiring mulder to a 1 year deal with a 2nd year option...i brought up the idea of armas jr yesterday as a 5th starter but i think mulder could be worth the risk, especially if he is capable of returning to his old self.
congratulations erik
I view Mulder as a penny stock
First, congratulations to Erik and to Mr. Mulder.
I cannot imagine that any rational GM would count on Mulder being a contributor in 2007. He has enough talent and track record to warrant a low-cost flier, but there are far too many health questions to justify a deal much beyond the league minimum.
Many pitchers have recovered from damaged labrums, but I cannot recall any pitcher who has recovered from a torn rotator cuff. To my knowledge, Mulder had the latter.
Add to this questions about Mulder's hip, which may have resulted in the degradation of his mechanics and the ensuring strain on his shoulder, and you have a situation where the surgery is treating the symptom, but not necessarily the cause.
I wish the Mulder the best, but I think in this market some foolish team will give him a deal that does not justify the risk. I don't think it will be the Cardinals.
mgl blog
Well, as many probably know, he wrote "The Book" along with TangoTiger and Dolphin.
They have a website for "The Book" which includes a blog...that has pretty much become a must read for me. If you are into Saber, this is pretty cool stuff. All 3 authors contribute to the blog.
Nah, teach the boy to throw with both hands
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 17, 2006 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
Congrats Erik
That's awesome news, Eric
gdm
i mean if that 2yr deal ended up being pretty low $ amount then by all means bring him back but with this much competition for him someone is going to overpay and i don't want it to be the cards.
don't cut and run.
if, IF they can get him for a 1-2 year low cost, high incentive deal, with team options for 1 or more years, I really think Mulder would take that since by all accounts, he prefers to stay in the STL. I know he wants to get paid, and that's his rights. but I am looking at this for what is best for the Cardinals, and not Mulder. I really liked the trade for him when it happend. and if he is healthy, he is the #2 starter the team is looking for right now.
I think he is worth the risk since we allready gave up so much for him. to cut and run now is not the best option. I am not saying over pay for him, but don't let him go without a fight.
erik mulder looper
Mulder is definitely a concern of mine. If he comes back, we hold our breath, if he leaves it takes it right out of us and leads us to...
Looper starting? Wow. I can see Thompson starting, he did in the minors and holds the consecutive innings scoreless streak.
mulder and his wife
Competitive bid = Stoopid Money?
by Number47 on Dec 18, 2006 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Congrats erik
NOt to Change the subject
Could It Be
La Duncerty knows that Mulder will not be ready until July so, they need a to find a stop gap measure. I hope this is why we here things like Looper as a starter.
Maybe the Cards go into spring with AW, Looper, and Thompson competing for a temp starting job, or sharing it in some way.
If only Weaver gets signed I hope that AW wins that job out right.
Could this be what the thinking is? Any thoughts?
I agree with the logic
We'll go into camp with at least 4 guys that have won 10 games in a major league season. I think Walt is shrewdly waiting for the fervor surrounding the winter meetings to die down and make some smooth under-the-radar signings and make his own news cycle. Tony and Dunc won't allow it to be any other way.
by BigBrummerFan on Dec 17, 2006 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
Let's say
For sure
by rockin redbird on Dec 18, 2006 2:43 AM EST up reply actions
Alex Rios
by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 18, 2006 1:07 AM EST reply actions
Why would we trade a starting pitcher
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 18, 2006 3:59 AM EST up reply actions
...because
by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 18, 2006 5:37 AM EST up reply actions
we don't have
Ah.
by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 18, 2006 8:44 AM EST up reply actions
True we don't have a spare SP
Here are his stats. He hit .302/.349/.516 (AVG/OBP/SLG).
by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Dec 18, 2006 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

by 

















