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Mulling Mulder

Goold reports that no matter what, St. Louis is considered to be right at the top  of the list for Mulder's services. Mulder's agent also says that Mulder could make 21-25 starts next season. :Warning, agent talk!: We all remember Swamp Gas of '06, messy mechanics, hidden injuries and the club slogging him along through his pains rather then correctly diagnosing them. Maybe the Indians have the right angle in their pursuit of Mulder, pumping their medical and training staffs ability to reclaim talent rather then further destroy it, which is pretty much what the Cardinals did last season, as well documented by lboros this past July.

I could still see St. Louis as an attractive place for him, given Duncan's expertise and he's the already the devil he knows. He also knows the city, the fans, etc. Winning a ring last season doesn't hurt, even if he was only a spectator.

But can he come back? The last words a pitcher ever wants to hear is 'frayed labrum'. In Will Carroll's regular article Under the Knife, it doesn't sound so good.

Mark Mulder had successful surgery last week, but what does that mean? All surgery where the problem is corrected and the patient wakes up can be qualified as successful. What Cards fans want to know is if Mulder might come back as something near what he was. (Of course, Cards fans might not care if Walt Jocketty elects to let Mulder move on.) Mulder had a repair of his shoulder, specifically focused on the rotator cuff. The expected debridement became more significant once the shoulder was visualized, making this surgery much more like the 2005 surgery on Kerry Wood than the 2003 surgery on Matt Morris. Mulder faces a long road and a likely change in style when he does return. If he needs inspiration, he should look to Chris Carpenter, a guy who came back from worse to be a Cy Young favorite

Morris came back rather quickly, but he went from a top of the rotation pitcher to bottom of the rotation guy, posting an ERA of 4.98 for San Fran last season. As we're familiar with, Mo doesn't have the ability to follow up a 69 mph bender with a mid-nineties heater like he did in his glory days. If Mulder's injury was worse, then don't expect him to go back to throwing 91-92 as he did in Oakland.

It's not just Mulder's shoulder I'm concerned with, it's his back. (See this article at BTF for an great breakdown of Mulder's mechanics.) It was his injured back that many believed is what considerably slowed his delivery and put the strain on his shoulder. So even if his shoulder is ok, if that root problem is still there, he's going to still have that slow delivery, thus losing more on what might be left on his fastball, thus killing his shoulder again.

The fact that the Cards are interested in bringing him back shows faith that he can or will be alright, but they already missed it so many times with Mulder, it's hard to trust their judgment. I guess I'm worried Mulder could be on the Steve Avery career path, which is pretty freakin' scary. But if anyone can help Mulder reinvent himself, it would be Dunc. He was already reinventing him in an extreme groundballer in '05. Oh, and congrats to Mulder and best wishes with his new misses. [editor's note, by erik] BTW, speaking of misseses (is that a word?), my wife is 9 months pregnant and can go into labor any day now. So if you don't see any posts by me here for a weekend or so, you'll know Cardinal nation just got a little bigger.

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Congratulations Erik
I'm sure the Cardinal indoctrination will begin at an early age.

Re: Mulder.  That's my biggest worry.  His mechanics were shot to hell and I'm not convinced that he's gonna be fixed.  I hadn't remembered Carroll's reference to Wood but that's my fear.  With the Cardinal's rotation as thin as it is I'm not sure we can afford to take someone on who will most likely miss a 1/3 of their starts from the beginning of the season.  I don't have high hopes for Mulder making it back to the bigs and even less hope of him being anything more than a back-end starter.

by azruavatar on Dec 16, 2006 9:47 PM EST reply actions  

Why wouldn't the Cardinals be able to afford it?
If they were honest about being willing to go up to $100 million, aren't they somewhere at $84m right now (before deferrements)?

I'd hate to see what they'd be willing to throw that $16m around at right now if not Mulder.  They've given up on Suppan and I'd imagine they aren't willing to go over $8m on Weaver.  Mulder would most likely see a 2-year deal (2nd year an option) for around $18m, 8 this year, 10 next.

Might as well take the risk, they've already invested enough 'talent' in aquiring Mulder.  A healthy Mark Mulder, in this market, is a $10-15 million pitcher.  Getting him for less is the 'Cardinals way' it seems.

I'd feel better in the Cardinals investing in Mark Mulder than what else is left on the heap.  As management, consider it sunk cost, $18 m that is 'lost' for the next two seasons but has the potential for a return.

Right now, best case scenerio barring trades for the rotation is:

Carpenter
Wells
Weaver
Reyes
Wainwright

If they don't resign Weaver, then it gets murkier and potentially much more scary.  I'd like to have Mulder as a potential back-up plan than Joel Pineiro, Tomo Ohka or Tony Armas Jr.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 17, 2006 12:57 AM EST up reply actions  

If Mulder truly believes
He will come back from his surgery at a level similar to Mulder of olde, a shorter term contract is probably in his best interest.

If he has doubts, the long term contract Texas was rumoured to offer would probably be better.

He probably can't expect to have head-turning stats this year.  I'm sure he will go through some tired arm periods and control issues like Morris did his first year off of surgery.   A two year deal would be about right to re-establish himself and prime himself to get paid next time he's up for free agency.

by RedbirdRay on Dec 16, 2006 10:25 PM EST reply actions  

Congrats!
Soon you'll know the joy of posting one-handed...

If Mulder has a new wife around telling him what to do, and he really is getting a multi-year offer from his home town team, why would he go anywhere else?

Acquire Jason Simontacchi!

by guayzimi on Dec 16, 2006 10:40 PM EST reply actions  

Mrs. Mulder
Does anyone know where she is from?  That may tip the scales if he get nultiple bids that are nearly equal.

p.s. Congratulations!

by tjeng on Dec 16, 2006 10:52 PM EST reply actions  

Congrats, Erik
And good timing, having the kid in the offseason.

I had forgotten about that breakdown of Mulder's delivery. It's pretty compelling. All in all, I think the case you make shows why any offer to Mulder should be heavy on the incentives.

by DCGreg on Dec 16, 2006 11:02 PM EST reply actions  

Baby Season...
Congratulations Erik!

It must be something in the water but this is like the 6th baby I know of amoung friends and acquaintances in the past few months.

by Zubin on Dec 17, 2006 12:07 AM EST reply actions  

Water?
Harken back to the early days of spring training.  Things get a little "frisky" during the first part of March!

by RAholt on Dec 17, 2006 9:39 AM EST up reply actions  

He's worth a year with an option.
Mulder is a good athlete and he's young.  I really think he's a good candidate to bounce back.  By all indications, his rotator cuff tear was not large.  Hell, they didn't find it until they scoped the shoulder out.  Now this isn't uncommon, since shoulder MRI's are not even 75% accurate for diagnosing tears.  But I digress...

It's nearly impossible to figure out which came first, the chicken or the egg, when it comes to pitching mechanics.  Look, Mark was probably pitching with a torn rotator cuff for most of the year.  All of this  overthinking into his mechanics goes for naught in my opinion, once the rotator cuff tear was found.  I'm very surprised that Mulder did not end up with an elbow injury due to the fact that his shoulder was not strong enough to allow him to stay in a consistent arm slot above shoulder level.  Rotator cuff pathology/weakness is often the cause of ulnar collateral ligament injuries in the elbow.  

I truly believe that Mulder will contribute significantly to a team later on in '07 and definitely in '08.    Let's hope that he's wearing birds on a bat when he does.

by silent_bob on Dec 17, 2006 1:02 AM EST reply actions  

Congratulations Erik
Teach him to play catcher, and to hit left-handed.

Enjoyed the post.

by plh903 on Dec 17, 2006 1:47 AM EST reply actions  

actually....
in this market, teach him to pitch.

below-average, 5+ ERA....who cares? 50 MIL!

by Fitz on Dec 17, 2006 2:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Better yet if he's gonna pitch, make him
a switch thrower too.
He called fate's bluff on a cool New York night, October 19th, 2006.

by Number47 on Dec 18, 2006 2:06 AM EST up reply actions  

maybe i should
have him washed in the waters of Denora, PA

by erik on Dec 18, 2006 7:56 AM EST up reply actions  

congrats erik
my best to your wife as well. hope they both are healthy and well.

try as hard as you can to make sure the boy is hard throwing lefty. i think the team will need one coming out of the pen to close in about 20 years. I'm doing what I can do to make sure my two nephews that are 2 and 3 will be players as well. the oldest will be a hard throwing lefty that will start. and the youngest with his body type will deffinalty be a power hitting corner outfielder or infielder. :-)

one can dream can't he?

as for Mulder, if I've said it once, I've said it a freakin 1000 times. the Cards gave up Danny, Kiko and a power hitter named Barton for Mulder. that's way, WAY to much talent to let Mulder walk after two years. Unless that left arm of Marks falls off, I am confident he will come back and be just as good, if not better than before he got hurt. with Dave helping him get his mechanics back, Mark will be fine. they cannot let him walk. they just can't. when you give up 3 young players of that caliber for one guy, you are making a big commitment to that guy. so Walt & Co need to step up and show Mark they won't let him go without a fight. they need to step up and make the commitment to him and his new wife that the team is serious about him being a Cardinal for a long time. I know he wants to be a free agent again, but that's a bad deal for the Cardinals. give him the two year deal, but make sure there is something on the end so he won't get away that easily. something like a two or three year team or mutual option. i don't know. be creative Walt. it's what you are paid to do.

Don't let him go Walt. Don't let him go.

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD. My Blog: And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Dec 17, 2006 2:04 AM EST reply actions  

Congrats to Erik
Kids are fantastic!  That is exciting.

by mdarshan on Dec 17, 2006 3:41 AM EST reply actions  

holy effing crap
they are SERIOUS.

be afraid. be very afraid,,,,

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/FC50C1483F67945D86257247001716F7 ?OpenDocument

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD. My Blog: And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Dec 17, 2006 4:58 AM EST reply actions  

Wow.
Well, it'll certainly make for an interesting April, now won't it...
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Dec 17, 2006 5:26 AM EST up reply actions  

I still think...
they're posing... Trying not to come off as desperate in trade negotiations... Looper will never start for the Cards.
Acquire Jason Simontacchi!

by guayzimi on Dec 17, 2006 10:12 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm trying to
get inside Duncan's head on this one, since, as that article portrays it, it's his idea to convert Looper into a starter.  My question is whether we think there are external pressures on his thinking: it certainly looks like a cost-cutting measure handed down from the top ("Dave, find us a starter in that bullpen..."), or do we think Dunc has just so internalized the money-saving philosophy (and so built up an image of himself as a transformer of so-so pitchers' careers) that he initiated this on his own?  For some reason, if he did come up with it on his own, I'm willing to go with it... you have to think, given his level of preparedness and insight elsewhere, that he's seen something he thinks he can capitalize on.  Of course, I'm willing to be persuaded this is so much smoke, as lboros and others have suggested...

by jfs on Dec 17, 2006 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Looper may be more effective as a starter
I think that may have been Duncan's thinking. He has developed other pitches to make up for the declining speed on his fast ball.

I think it's an exciting possibility. But not as exciting as it might have been to have obtained Jason Schmidt.

by Fred McTaggart on Dec 18, 2006 8:13 AM EST up reply actions  

reminds me of the ponson
rumors we heard last winter. we all held out hope they were made up or wouldn't happen. well, it's happening.

by erik on Dec 17, 2006 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Hate to admit...
I rather liked the Ponson signing at the time...

Going into the season with 6 legitimate starters should be mandatory. Reyes had options, and that made him the most reasonable candidate for the 6th spot. This year Wainwright would be ideal for that role, if we could resign Suppan and Weaver, or trade for someone similar.

Acquire Jason Simontacchi!

by guayzimi on Dec 17, 2006 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

looper as a starter
I can see Looper being a serviceable #5 starter.  But my mind just doesn't see him going deep into games.  I can't conceive him going more than 5 or 6.  Our bullpen will be taxed next season.

by jjray on Dec 17, 2006 8:38 AM EST reply actions  

idk
that i want to conceive of looper starting, he's had me nervous everytime he pitched 1 inning, i dont think my heart can withstand 6 straight innings of looper...

im all for reaquiring mulder to a 1 year deal with a 2nd year option...i brought up the idea of armas jr yesterday as a 5th starter but i think mulder could be worth the risk, especially if he is capable of returning to his old self.

congratulations erik

by MarcGldstn on Dec 17, 2006 9:21 AM EST reply actions  

I view Mulder as a penny stock
Greetings everyone. Have lurked for awhile, first time posting.

First, congratulations to Erik and to Mr. Mulder.

I cannot imagine that any rational GM would count on Mulder being a contributor in 2007. He has enough talent and track record to warrant a low-cost flier, but there are far too many health questions to justify a deal much beyond the league minimum.

Many pitchers have recovered from damaged labrums, but I cannot recall any pitcher who has recovered from a torn rotator cuff. To my knowledge, Mulder had the latter.

Add to this questions about Mulder's hip, which may have resulted in the degradation of his mechanics and the ensuring strain on his shoulder, and you have a situation where the surgery is treating the symptom, but not necessarily the cause.

I wish the Mulder the best, but I think in this market some foolish team will give him a deal that does not justify the risk. I don't think it will be the Cardinals.

by Hungry Jack on Dec 17, 2006 10:41 AM EST reply actions  

mgl blog
I have stated more than a few times I really wish mgl was still consulting for us.

Well, as many probably know, he wrote "The Book" along with TangoTiger and Dolphin.

They have a website for "The Book" which includes a blog...that has pretty much become a must read for me.  If you are into Saber, this is pretty cool stuff.  All 3 authors contribute to the blog.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/

by RedbirdRay on Dec 17, 2006 12:04 PM EST reply actions  

Congrats erik
since its a boy, I've got three words for you:

left handed knuckleballer.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Dec 17, 2006 12:26 PM EST reply actions  

Nah, teach the boy to throw with both hands
then he can go left for 6 and right for the final 3.
Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 17, 2006 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Congrats Erik
I got a great name for a boy.  Yadier.
"And that's a winner. A World Series winner for the Cardinals."

by Bird Watcher on Dec 17, 2006 1:36 PM EST reply actions  

That's awesome news, Eric
Being a father - best thing ever.  Blessings on your entire family.  Have fun!

by wildman on Dec 17, 2006 2:10 PM EST reply actions  

gdm
you are absolutely right, we did give a lot of talent away for mulder...and that's exactly why we shouldn't waste more money on him.  mulder isn't going to do much in 07, if anything at all.  and if he's smart, he is going to have a 2 year, incentive filled deal which means we will only get one servicable year for him.  i would much rather have that payroll flexability and midseason or next offseason instead of spending it on a lot of risk now.

i mean if that 2yr deal ended up being pretty low $ amount then by all means bring him back but with this much competition for him someone is going to overpay and i don't want it to be the cards.

by FutureMan on Dec 17, 2006 2:20 PM EST reply actions  

don't cut and run.
was his first year a waste of the Cardinals money? no, not at all. last year, maybe. but you cannot count on players getting hurt. that's what the insurance policies are for. if Mulder signs for another team I'm pretty sure we only get a 2nd round pick for him. and it would be at the end of the 2nd round. correct me if I am wrong. and that in my opinion is not even half the value that we gave up for Mulder. we gave up a very good mid rotation guy in Haren. a very good bullpen guy in Kiko. and a potential power hitting corner outfielder or infielder in Barton. letting Mulder walk and getting that pick would be admiting that trade was a big failure by Walt&Co. something we all think it was, but not something I think the team wants it's fan base to think. I am betting it comes down to a pride thing for Walt&Co. but I could be very wrong. they do not want any more bad PR like there was all of last season untill the World Series victory.

if, IF they can get him for a 1-2 year low cost, high incentive deal, with team options for 1 or more years, I really think Mulder would take that since by all accounts, he prefers to stay in the STL. I know he wants to get paid, and that's his rights. but I am looking at this for what is best for the Cardinals, and not Mulder. I really liked the trade for him when it happend. and if he is healthy, he is the #2 starter the team is looking for right now.

I think he is worth the risk since we allready gave up so much for him. to cut and run now is not the best option. I am not saying over pay for him, but don't let him go without a fight.

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD. My Blog: And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Dec 17, 2006 7:52 PM EST up reply actions  

erik mulder looper
Congrats on the baby boy Erik...

Mulder is definitely a concern of mine.  If he comes back, we hold our breath, if he leaves it takes it right out of us and leads us to...

Looper starting? Wow.  I can see Thompson starting, he did in the minors and holds the consecutive innings scoreless streak.

"back.. at the track...at the wall..homerun." -joe buck

by omshagome on Dec 17, 2006 3:06 PM EST reply actions  

mulder and his wife
one of my good buddies from school is mulder's wife's cousin.  they are pretty close and he has met mark many times (and has hooked me up with tix from Mulder as well).  mulder's wife is from arizona, but she is not commited to staying there.  They both really like STL and from talking to my buddy I don't think mark feels like he has to go to Arizona either.  I think he will stay with us but the one thing that could change that is if Texas signs Zito and Mulder goes there to reunite with him.  Either way Mark is a stand up guy and I think his comments about wanting to show STL fans what he can do are genuine.  As long as Walt made a competive bid, I think we will have a bargain on our hands if mark is healthy.

by Dave0585 on Dec 17, 2006 4:05 PM EST reply actions  

Competitive bid = Stoopid Money?
The problem is with Mulder's track record, its almost a given that some GM is going to throw too much money at him... say $11-12M/yer for 3 to 4 years.  I doubt the Cardinals will compete with that, nor would it be prudent to do so.
He called fate's bluff on a cool New York night, October 19th, 2006.

by Number47 on Dec 18, 2006 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Congrats erik
was the name willie? or gibbie..or maybe Rex after a lesser cardinal
Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Dec 17, 2006 4:49 PM EST reply actions  

NOt to Change the subject
I heard on XM that JD Drew has to get a second opinion on his physical for the Red Sox. Apparently he has a bum shoulder. Jeez its the freakin offseason and the kid is on the DL.
Official member of the Willie McGee fan club.

by OKCardsfan on Dec 17, 2006 7:51 PM EST reply actions  

THAT'S
why he's called DL Drew...

by cardsrul on Dec 17, 2006 8:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Good one
"Its the freakin offseason & the kid is on the DL."

Heh...

J.D. Bruise strikes again!

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Dec 17, 2006 11:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Could It Be
That the Cards think that they will be able to sign Mulder and Weaver. The comments that have been made by Tony about Weaver, and now word about Mulder leads me to think it is possible.

La Duncerty knows that Mulder will not be ready until July so, they need a to find a stop gap measure. I hope this is why we here things like Looper as a starter.

Maybe the Cards go into spring with AW, Looper, and Thompson competing for a temp starting job, or sharing it in some way.

If only Weaver gets signed I hope that AW wins that job out right.

Could this be what the thinking is? Any thoughts?

by nybirdfan on Dec 17, 2006 8:07 PM EST reply actions  

I agree with the logic
I think all this gamesmanship will result in the Cardinals making two more under the radar signings or trades, and we'll go to camp with Carp, AW, Reyes, Looper, Wells, a guy of Weaver's ilk and a pitcher in the vein of Tomo Ohka/Tony Armas/Jon Leiber.

We'll go into camp with at least 4 guys that have won 10 games in a major league season. I think Walt is shrewdly waiting for the fervor surrounding the winter meetings to die down and make some smooth under-the-radar signings and make his own news cycle. Tony and Dunc won't allow it to be any other way.

by BigBrummerFan on Dec 17, 2006 9:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Let's say
Does this assume that Reyes is in the starting mix, along with Carpenter, Wells, Weaver, Mulder-Wainwright? If so, could all the Looper noise be additional pressure from management on Reyes?

by slochaos on Dec 17, 2006 9:22 PM EST up reply actions  

exactly
Reyes is in as a starter. Wainwright (my guess) wins the temp-starting job over Thompson and Looper. If Mulder fails, or is set back AW stays in the rotation. The news about Izzy has freed Wainwright.

by nybirdfan on Dec 17, 2006 10:38 PM EST up reply actions  

For sure
something like that. It doesn't make me cringe the way it did initially because, regardless of what's really going on, if Looper craps out he will not be starting come april. It won't take too many tries down in Jupiter to figure out if he has anything as a starter. If by some miracle he looks decent and can hold his own with Wainwright and Thompson, then what the heck--toss him a few starts. He'll be on a very short leash if they're serious about this and it's not just some goofy "motivation for Reyes" headgame.

by rockin redbird on Dec 18, 2006 2:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Alex Rios
Just heard on XM that the Blue Jays are shopping Alex Rios.  Would the Cardinals be interested in making a deal for him with Reyes and prospects?  Hell, give 'em JEnc as a throwaway.
Bench Juan Encarnacion!

by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 18, 2006 1:07 AM EST reply actions  

Why would we trade a starting pitcher
and prospects for an average outfielder?
Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 18, 2006 3:59 AM EST up reply actions  

...because
...because I feel Alex Rios is ready to have a breakout season and become a superstar.  I also feel he's an upgrade over JEnc in RF.
Bench Juan Encarnacion!

by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 18, 2006 5:37 AM EST up reply actions  

we don't have
a SP to spare, and people have been waiting for eons for dude to break out, still hasn't happened.

by erik on Dec 18, 2006 7:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Ah.
Eh, just an idea I thought I'd throw out there...
Bench Juan Encarnacion!

by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 18, 2006 8:44 AM EST up reply actions  

True we don't have a spare SP
But to say we are still waiting for him to break out is incorrect.

Here are his stats.  He hit .302/.349/.516 (AVG/OBP/SLG).

by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Dec 18, 2006 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

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