the tonys
by lboros on Dec 15, 2006 8:47 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printla russa's latest remarks on anthony reyes, courtesy matt leach's blog:
Kip is an experienced starter. He's had enough success. But the other three guys that pitch in that rotation, as of right now, should be guys that walk out of camp and can say, 'I won that job. I earned it.'
He's a year older and he's a year better pitcher. I just don't think it's smart to make a statement that you can't back up. And if he goes into camp and can't get anybody out...
yet here we are, two months later, still pretending that reyes has to "compete" for a rotation slot on a team that has no rotation. why?
here's my theory: reyes' confidence irritates la russa. i think he views the kid as cocky and too big for his britches; i think he wants to bring reyes down a notch or three. but not entirely out of jealousy or petty spite; i think tony believes he's administering a form of tough love, acting in what he considers the player's best interests.
i base my opinion in large part on this passage from 3 Nights in August, where la russa discusses reyes' old college teammate, mark prior (page 74, for those of you reading along at home):
. . . . [Prior] has the swagger that is the hubris of youth, taking his invincibility for granted when nobody ever should. . . . .
reyes is not nearly as smug as prior was when he first came up, but he does have a swagger. the hat and socks alone make a statement: i am different. i am special. notice me. it's well documented that he has resisted the organization's instructions (issued in 2005, if not sooner) to alter his pitching philosophy and embrace the pitch-to-contact approach. then recall these words from cardinal farmhand blake hawksworth, reyes' former roommate and off-season workout partner:
the organization's handling of reyes is the probably reason that so many fans --- including those of us who believe in reyes' ability --- have set such low expectations for him in 2007. rather than confidently project that he'll grow into a solid mid-rotation pitcher, we have to wonder if he'll have a lousy spring and pitch himself onto the memphis roster. let's try to take that element out of the equation: what can we reasonably expect from this pitcher? reyes' page at baseball-reference.com doesn't list any comparable pitchers yet, and after trolling around on the lahman database i can see why --- there simply aren't many meaningful comps out there. for those of you not familiar with this resource, the lahman database lists every player/season from 1871 through the present --- tens of thousands of batting and hitting lines. to find comps for reyes, i began by searching for pitchers with similar workloads. reyes made 17 starts and threw 85 1/3 innings last year; i filtered for pitchers who have started 15 or more games in a season while throwing fewer than 100 innings. that whittled things right down to 342 pitcher/seasons. then i looked at strikeouts --- reyes fanned 72 last year, so i filtered for pitchers who fanned at least 70 men, and that brought the list down to 46 pitcher/seasons, a manageable number. at that point i simply began wading through line by line, looking for guys who are close to reyes' age and close to the beginnings of their careers, and who had similar pitching lines.
some very good pitchers turned up on the list. it includes the rookie seasons of livan hernandez, ramon martinez (who also happens to be reyes' #1 comp per PECOTA), and oliver perez, as well as roger clemens' second year and some mid- to late-career seasons by andy pettitte, john candelaria, bret saberhagen, and todd stottlemyre. there are some washouts, too --- bobby witt, paul wagner, and darren dreifort appear, along with the unfortunate david clyde. none of the foregoing are particularly meaningful as comps for reyes; the pitchers either were not close in age during the season in question, or they diverged sharply in one or more telling stats (hr rate, walk rate, hits/9, era+, etc). of the 46 pitching lines, only 2 seem close enough to tell us anything remotely meaningful:
| age | w-l | era | whip | gs | ip | h | bb | so | hr/9 | go/ao | era+ | opp avg |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| reyes 06 | 24 | 5-8 | 5.06 | 1.383 | 17 | 85.1 | 84 | 34 | 72 | 1.8 | 0.87 | 87 | .262 |
| capuano 04 | 25 | 6-8 | 4.99 | 1.449 | 17 | 88.1 | 91 | 37 | 80 | 1.8 | 0.96 | 83 | .269 |
| patterson 04 | 26 | 4-7 | 5.03 | 1.485 | 19 | 98.1 | 100 | 46 | 99 | 1.6 | 0.65 | 82 | .260 |
that's chris capuano of milwaukee and john patterson of the nats; the similarities speak for themselves. patterson threw more innings than reyes but also started more games; they're virtually tied in terms of innings per start. both pitchers followed up their reyes-comp year with major steps forward. capuano went 18-12 in 2005 with a 3.99 era and 176 strikeouts; he followed that up with an all-star season in 2006. patterson emerged as washington's staff ace in 2005, going 9-7 with a 3.13 era in 2005 with 185 strikeouts; injuries limited him to only 8 starts in 2006. you can only take these comparisons so far; capuano is a left-handed pitcher, a rather striking dissimilarity to reyes, and patterson moved into a new, pitcher-friendly park in '05, which seems to have helped him. but those are still encouraging precedents.
here's the next best comp:
| age | w-l | era | whip | gs | ip | h | bb | so | hr/9 | go/ao | era+ | opp avg |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| reyes 06 | 24 | 5-8 | 5.06 | 1.383 | 17 | 85.1 | 84 | 34 | 72 | 1.8 | 0.87 | 87 | .262 |
| peavy 02 | 21 | 6-7 | 4.52 | 1.423 | 17 | 97.2 | 106 | 33 | 90 | 1.0 | 1.12 | 85 | .274 |
jake peavy was three years younger than reyes; he pitched in a much friendlier park for pitchers, lasted more innings per start, allowed a higher hits/9 total and a lower hr/9. but these two season are still relatively close. peavy went 12-11 the following year with a 4.11 era, then broke out in 2004 with a 15-6, 2.28 campaign.
kip wells' age-23 season is comparable in some regards:
| age | w-l | era | whip | gs | ip | h | bb | so | hr/9 | go/ao | era+ | opp avg |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| reyes 06 | 24 | 5-8 | 5.06 | 1.383 | 17 | 85.1 | 84 | 34 | 72 | 1.8 | 0.87 | 87 | .262 |
| wells 00 | 23 | 6-9 | 6.02 | 1.865 | 20 | 98.7 | 126 | 58 | 71 | 1.4 | 1.18 | 86 | .312 |
reyes pitched far more effectively --- better control, fewer hits, higher k rate --- but the pitchers carried similar workloads, were close in age, and had nearly identical park-adjusted era+s. wells went on to have a string of good years --- league-average in 2001 (10-11, 4.79), followed by his two best seasons at ages 25 and 26.
if these comps support any conclusions at all --- and step on them lightly, they won't bear too much weight --- they suggest that reyes has a good chance to progress at least to league-averageness in 2007. despite la russa's comments above, i think he has the same expectation.
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disrespecting reyes
p.s. I was also perplexed by the La Russa comment in, I believe, the same interview saying they are not giving Narveson a shot at the rotation in 2007? The kid's out of options. We have 3 other loogies in the pen. Why not allow the kid into the derby of has beens / injury reclimation projects that shall compete for the 5th starter spot in ST?
old school
the game will humble you
Great point.
The game *should* humble you
by brdsnbt on Dec 15, 2006 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
overreaction...
TLR always wants to get the most out of his players. what he always asks for them is to compete. i don't think TLR was disparaging Reyes. i think he was just trying to light a fire under him. i'm sure TLR believes that Reyes can be better than he was last year. or, at least, more consistent. that's how i take that little message.
TLR, Jock, and Dunc have all been operating under the assumption that Reyes would be in the rotation in 2007 since Spring Training of '06. i don't think he's trying to say that Reyes is out, or that he has something to prove to TLR before he gets the ball. i think he's just trying to draw more out of him. make sure he doesn't get comfortable. he doesn't have to do that with Carp. doing it with Reyes might not be a terrible thing.
let's not burn TLR just yet.
clearly defined roles
that strikes me as empty posturing, the kind of "motivation" that might work on a high-school kid but would get smirked at by an adult who is as mature and as secure as reyes seems to be.
by the way, i don't see any evidence that reyes lacks a work ethic or requires any artificially created sense of urgency. he rolled with the punches last year, pitched wherever and whenever he was asked, and made adjustments throughout the season. there's a presumption that TLR needs to light a fire under the kid; i don't see the evidence for that.
Reyes' one-hitter was a loss
I simply don't think Reyes is that good. Maybe he will be. I hope so.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 16, 2006 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
i'm not saying that....
"i consider him [to be] competing [for a spot in the rotation]."
"That's not a healthy thing for Anthony to say... that's not a good attitude."
"But the other three guys that pitch in that rotation, as of right now, should be guys that walk out of camp and can say, 'I won that job. I earned it.'"
TLR wants Reyes to take nothing for granted. but not because he wants to keep him down; it's because he wants to build him up. remember, TLR's position last season was that Reyes was only pitching because of injuries to Mulder. right or wrong, that was his position. so now, he wants to see Reyes really compete. he doesn't want the kid to be entirely comfortable. he wants him to keep pushing.
nothing wrong with that.
it's not about criticizing
i'd like to see the cardinals handle reyes the same way the giants handled matt cain this year. cain got off to a 1-5 start and had 7.04 era through mid-may; if he'd been "competing" for his job, he would have been shipped out to triple A and his job handed to a "proven" starter like, i dunno, sidney ponson. but the giants stuck with cain. he still had a 5.12 era by the all-star break; of his 16 starts to that point, fewer than half (7) lasted more than 5 innings. the giants were a game over .500 and only 3.5 games out of the division lead. again, if cain was "competing" for his slot, he might well have gotten booted from the rotation. but the giants were committed to winning or losing with him --- and developing him for the future.
as late as august 12, cain had a 4.89 era --- and still the giants stayed with him. then he finally caught fire, won 6 games in a row, and nearly pitched the giants into the postseason.
i don't see the cardinals making that type of commitment to their top young pitchers. i see the opposite ---- and in my opinion, that's not healthy for the organization.
When you're competing for a division championship
To have the respect that you're asking for, though, I think Reyes should be expected to perform as Wainwright did in his transitional role. He didn't.
There are many, many promising AAA pitchers and many of them do very well in the majors for awhile. A year or two ago, I would have sworn that Oliver Perez was the real thing, and he may still end up being a good pitcher. How about Ben Sheets? If Ben Sheets had been in the Cardinal rotation the past few years, would the team have made the post-season each year?
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 16, 2006 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
it's hard to have that committment
Reyes has nothing left to prove in the minors. The only way we can ever know what he's capable of is to let him pitch and sit back and watch.
Why is "player development" all that
Remember how much we wanted to hang on to Todd Zeile? Eli Marrerro? and Manny Aybar? Did they live up to their hype? We would have been better trading them as AAA prospects for established players who know how to win--especially pitchers.
I know ownership wants player development because it will save them money. But the team is winning and filling the seats. Now is the time to try to put together the pieces to stay on top rather than starting to rebuild. We are competing quite well as a mid-market team; what we need to do is re-invest some of our winnings from a world championship into an effort to stay on top--while we still have Albert, Carp, Eck, Rolen and Tony.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 16, 2006 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Established Talent
Maybe it's the opposite
Mulder was damaged goods but he still helped us win last year and won more games for us this year than Anthony Reyes. I say, bring him back if we want to stay on top. I know I'm in the minority but I still say it was a good trade--hasn't worked out so far, but if we bring him back, it might. And if the trade never pays off, it was still worth the chance.
You're talking like an owner. Winning players deserve winning pay. If you were producing and selling automobiles, would you get rid of the talent that got you top market share or give them a raise?
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 16, 2006 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
Analogy doesn't work, but here goes
I don't know if I'm talking like an owner or not, but I think of myself as someone who's going to be a huge Cardinals fan until I shuffle off this mortal coil. The organization has to be clever and resourceful to put together a competitive roster with the kind of revenue we can provide. Failing to take advantage of the fact that players are underpaid relative to their production for the first six years of their careers wouldn't be clever or resourceful at all.
The best course for the future is to work hard at drafting and developing talent in the minors, plugging-in what we can use (like Brendan Ryan, hopefully; Blake Hawksworth, almost definitely; and Colby Rasmus, fingers-crossed) and trading away what we can't use for the established talent (like Mark Hamilton, if he succeeds at AA at some point).
If winning championships is so unprofitable
The reason salaries are escalating is that every team in baseball wants what the Cardinals have right now--the WS championship. They're willing to pay for it, whatever it may cost them. Our owners have it and don't want to pay for it. There's something wrong with that picture. We had a helluva competitive roster in 2004, and it's been going downhill ever since.
I think Tony and Walt really want to keep the best possible team, and I think they realize that doesn't always come from within. I think what's wrong is not that Tony fails to respect young talent (hell, the kiddy bullpen carried us through the post-season) but that the homegrown talent, for whatever reason, is often not good enough. I look around the league and see young players like Zack Duke, Chase Utley, Chris Young and wonder why we're not getting players like that from our system.
My view is that our weakness is scouting at the lowest level. We got Pujols by chance, we got Chris Duncan by legacy. But every year, I read about all these amazing players we have in our system and then they come up for a trial in the majors, and I think: what??? I just hope Brendan Ryan and Colby Rasmus live up to their hype better than John Gall or Skip Schumacher.
Sorry, but right now for me, Anthony Reyes (but NOT Wainwright, Kinney or Tyler Johnson) fits right into that mould of over-hyped AAA player. I would rather have Chris Young or Capuano or Zack Duke. Or even Oliver Perez or Ben Sheets, who have been up there already and may be heading down. If the pitchers that go out there and win games cost more money, then I would think the owners would be willing to shell out the money for them--as an investment for the present and future.
I know I'm putting myself on the line with Reyes, but I truly hope I have to eat crow.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 16, 2006 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Fred
by the red baron on Dec 17, 2006 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Of course, any team needs a farm system
My statement about player development was mostly tongue in cheek. But when you're talking about developing players who have limited upside potential, seems to me the best course is to convince someone else about that player's value and to take a known quantity in return.
What we disagree about is basically the upside potential of Anthony Reyes.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 18, 2006 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Understood
But people are right in pointing out that this is probably just a fake TLR spring training 'competition.'
Sticking with established players
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 16, 2006 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
so wait a second...
now you want the team to keep running guys out there until they figure it out? i mean, Cain is the exception, not the rule. when players are struggling as badly as he was, they usually don't have such a dramatic turnaround. plus, did the Giants really have a better option waiting in the wings?
i just think sometimes that you're holding TLR and Dunc to some crazy standard with Reyes that you wouldn't hold them to with other pitchers. i don't think that Reyes has proven himself as a consistently capable MLB starter. i don't have have a problem with TLR saying so. especially since it sounded much more like encouragement than derision.
is Reyes one of the 5 best that we've got? yeah. but if he stumbles, or if someone else plays better, then i don't have a problem with the manager putting somebody else out there. it's his job to put the best team out there that he can.
maybe i'm just overreacting to the Reyes mania on this board (not anybody in particular... just the seemingly consensus opinion). whenever Reyes struggled last year, it was automatically assumed to be because Dunc was "forcing" him to throw a 2-seamer. whenever he did well, it's because Reyes bucked the old man's instruction and just did whatever he wanted. i just think that's a very selective way to look at it. i think Reyes has a chance to be a decent pitcher, but that's all i expect from him. i mean, the kid only has two pitches that he can throw anywhere near the strike zone.
so, yeah. i guess we agree to disagree? but i've got no problem with what TLR said. i've also got no problem with Reyes' (perceived) "attitude". i think all of this is pretty over-blown, and i'd bet both TLR and Kid Reyes would agree.
cain is the exception
i don't want reyes held to a different standard than other pitchers. i want him held to the same standard. had that been the case, he would have been recognized as the cardinals' third-best starting pitcher last year, behind carpenter and suppan. he wasn't; he was always the first man bumped from the rotation. and he only made the postseason rotation because marquis literally left la russa with no choice.
now, heading into 2007, la russa tells us that kip wells --- whose last good season was 2003 --- is assured of a roster spot, but anthony reyes has to "compete" for his. that is where the double standard is, and i don't think that serves the team well.
"elite prospect"???????????
If Reyes was the Cardinals' third best pitcher at any time last year, I sure didn't see any indication of it. Reyes had many opportunities, won 5 games with a 5 plus ERA, rarely pitched out of the sixth inning and one of his two good outings was a loss. If I were manager, the patience he deserves is one more chance to make the rotation...unless something else comes along. Tony will have much more patience than that, of course, because Reyes is considered an "elite prospect" that the organization has spent time and money developing. I don't think attitude has anything to do with it; Tony would like a few Ws from Reyes. Because that is his job.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 17, 2006 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Elite talent
The fact that Reyes actually managed to lose that one hitter he threw just shows that even when he gets a one hitter, he CLEARLY isn't talented enough to actually WIN. A truly talented pitcher would have won that one hitter, right? I also agree with you that WINS are far-and-away the most important stat to judge any pitcher, because as we all know, "good pitchers find ways to win". And the others...well, they can throw one-hitters all season, but if they don't get the Ws, then they clearly just SUCK. Thanks for pointing that out for us several times, Fred.
I think Fred's point is obvious: All young pitchers that come up through the minors should be expected to win at LEAST 10 games and post at least a sub 3.00 ERA in their first real season at the major league level. Otherwise, it's pretty obvious they have no future, have questionable talent at BEST, and should be traded away ASAP, right? I mean, is Fred here the ONLY one who has figured this out?!?
rolls eyes
</sarcasm>
not so fast
molina is set as the everyday catcher, bennett is the backup. encarnacion is clearly defined as the starting right fielder (though larussa would be wise to sit him for duncan or j-rod against tough righties). it's pretty clear that kennedy is the starting second baseman, miles the reserve middle infielder, and spiezio the supersub.
i also think kinney and hancock are pretty clearly set as 6th-8th inning relievers as long as they are on the team.
and with the exception of the starting rotation, the remaining spots that are NOT clearly defined are pretty predictable.
A fan's perspective
I know that young pitchers don't always jump right out of the gate as No. 1 starters. I watched Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Nelson Briles, Ray Washburn, Ray Sadecki at the same stage of their careers, and all of them struggled. But I remember all of them--even Sadecki--looking better than Reyes at this stage. I wish I could have more confidence in him than Tony and Duncan have shown, but I don't. I hope he proves me wrong.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 15, 2006 9:05 AM EST reply actions
What?
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2006 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
I recall a game against the Braves
I also remember a great pitching performance from Marquis in one of the first starts of last season. (http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20060417&content_id=1405398&vkey=re cap&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl)
Reyes has had flashes of brilliance, to be sure, but he hasn't proven himself as a solid starter yet. And as Marquis can testify, flashes of brilliance do very little for a team if they aren't repeatable. I believe Reyes can and will improv even more with more starts, but that "pop" in his fastball doesn't always blow by the hitters. The Atlanta Braves proved that with 5 HRs in the game linked above.
Reyes' stuff
Now Wainwright is impressive. I see many excellent major league hitters like Carlos Beltran and Craig Biggio stand there like little kids looking at strike three from Wainwright. And I like Josh Kinney and Tyler Johnson. Brad Thompson looks very good at times.
I wasn't trying to compare Reyes just to great pitchers; in fact, Washburn and Sadecki were far from Hall of Famers. But Reyes does come with a lot of hype--compared constantly to Mark Prior. Well, Prior did impress me at this stage of his career even though I never bought that crap about his strong legs (his bulky calves are probably part of his problem and not an asset).
I'm not supporting any "prove yourself, kid" mentality, if that's what LaRussa and Duncan are doing. I'm just saying that I'm still waiting for Reyes to impress me enough that I want him in the rotation. Just my view.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 15, 2006 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Reyes' stuff is good
But Reyes had legitimately great K/BB numbers throughout his minor league career that should translate better than the just the "pretty good" that they were in '06. "Should be" isn't something to rely on to the death (which the Cards won't be doing anyway), but Anthony Reyes is better than the '06 version we saw. With command comes less free base runners, less mistakes-->less home runs--> better pitcher.
But 90-95 with that seeming giddy-up combined with a sub-80 changeup with great depth and fade is a damn good combo, especially if he has his typical control of the zone that he's had all through the minors. Slurvy curve isn't too great but whatever...I'd heard he'd been working on a cutter which is probably better anyway from his arm slot.
As for Wainwright vs. Reyes...I'd say it's a tossup for '07. Reyes has the edge in command and a 3rd pitch (and ML starting experience now), Wainwright has him with the dominant 2nd pitch and a fringy 4th pitch slider. Stuff wise I'd take Wainwright but just for next season I'm going to say Reyes will be the ever-so-slightly better pitcher. I'm going to say both will be fine #3's.
Hope you're right
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 15, 2006 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to see
by vince eating tarp on Dec 15, 2006 9:06 AM EST reply actions
The Comps listed
I think that his WS experience will do wonders for actuating his confidence. He always thought he could pitch at that level; now he knows he can.
I do expect him to start as the 5th piece, and eventually become an essential cog in the rotation.
Reyes
To LaDuncan, I say this: Let the man pitch. Stop trying to change him, bait him, test him, whatever the heck you are doing to him. Just let the man pitch. He will show you what you have been missing.
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 15, 2006 9:08 AM EST reply actions
Smoke Screen
The mind games the LaRussa plays make him the best in the biz. Let me give one example. By NOT going out to mound in the "Pine Tar" situation he put all the media pressure on the Tigers players. Kenny Rodgers and his teammates had to answer all the questions and TLR took the heat off of our boys.
In this case he wants Reyes to read these comments, work hard in the offseason and come into camp ready to pitch. If the young Reyes comes into this season fired up he could hit my projection for him
Reyes '07- 180 IP 15-9 3.85 ERA 1.29 WHIP 155K
by Born in 82 on Dec 15, 2006 9:28 AM EST reply actions
mind games
IMHO mind games should be reserved for opponents, not between a manager and his players. The manager should look each in the eye and give it to him absolutely straight up.
Great analysis...
Anyway, I wish Tony would suck it up and shut up. One would think that you can't make it in the bigs if you've got confidence problems. Reyes has tried things their way as well. What more could they want from him? It seems like they want him to become Chris Carpenter (high K, but pitch to contact too), and maybe the kid just isn't ready for that yet. And that's okay. Give him a couple years to develop and grow more confident in the talent he already has, and then teach him to take it to the next/best level.
by PhatAlbert on Dec 15, 2006 9:32 AM EST reply actions
Yep
What the Hell.
well...
GO CARDS!!!
While
I think you're dead on
Fish or Cut Bait
actually...
Great Post, LB
I think Tony is just blowing smoke up the media's backside this offseason. Looper's not going start, Reyes is the #3 or #4 starter, and Bonds was never in serious consideration to come to the Cards. Tony gets bored and likes to play weird little mind games with the media to help him through the winter(and likes to do ballet apparently, too).
I honestly believe if anyone introduced the man to the addictiveness of strat-o-ball, that would fulfill his winter baseball jones, and we wouldn't have to put up with his little games.
Reyes vs. Ankiel
valid
but i think the ankiel "situation" really hurt larussa. i think he probably went against his natural tendancies (because of the fanfare) and brought ankiel along quickly. after seeing what happened to him, i think tlr has probably told himself that he'll never do that again. now, he probably errs way on the other side of caution with the young arms.
by busch league on Dec 15, 2006 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
True
by rockin redbird on Dec 15, 2006 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you...
reyes in the WS
But TLR was backed into a corner on this one. He left Reyes off of the NLDS roster in favor of Marquis. He was backed into a corner using Reyes as the Game 1 starter in WS IMHO. It was either use Weaver on 3 days rest or a fully rested Reyes. Not really much of a choice there.
left Reyes off NLDS roster...
plus, Marquis can pinch-hit and pinch-run.
if the NLDS were a 7-game series, Reyes would've been on the roster.
I think
On one hand, we will comment how EVERYTHING coming from management, TLR, etc. in the offseason should be taken with a rather large grain of salt. How they don't really say much of substance.
Yet when they say one thing about the VEB Golden Child Anthony Reyes we all get our panties in a bunch. All Tony said is the guy has to earn is spot---egads, the horror.
Tony knows Reyes can pitch. I also think Tony believes Reyes can be BETTER than he's shown. Have we thought about this the other way. Instead of saying Tony is always running the kid down have we thought that Tony is trying to CHALLENGE him to get him to take the next step.
While Anthony does have the confident, cocky demeanor (which I like) he also has the laid back, everything has come easy attitude as well. Tony sees how hard the kid does/doesnt work. Maybe, just maybe, Tony doesnt want the kid to settle and wants him to be great and sees he can be.
Nah, its just Tony bashing him again.
One thing I would like to see out of Anthony. Lay off the donuts and cheeseburgers. I thought his weight/physical condition looked suspect at best last year. Losing 10-15 pounds wouldnt hurt him.
Because
On one hand, we will comment how EVERYTHING coming from management, TLR, etc. in the offseason should be taken with a rather large grain of salt. How they don't really say much of substance.
Yet when they say one thing about the VEB Golden Child Anthony Reyes we all get our panties in a bunch. All Tony said is the guy has to earn is spot---egads, the horror."
It's ludicrous to think that the guy who won Game 1 of the World Series and is 25 has to earn a spot when he clearly has done so. And it isn't about Reyes being the VEB Golden Child, it's about the fact that Reyes can pitch as good as anyone out there and he makes way less money.
"Tony knows Reyes can pitch. I also think Tony believes Reyes can be BETTER than he's shown. Have we thought about this the other way. Instead of saying Tony is always running the kid down have we thought that Tony is trying to CHALLENGE him to get him to take the next step."
OK, so then Tony should come out tomorrow and say that Chris Carpenter has to earn his spot, too. Because Tony isn't running him down, Tony's CHALLENGING him to take the next step.
And where was this CHALLENGING of Jason Marquis before the 2006 season? Where was Tony's comments that Marquis wasn't going to be given a spot, instead he would have to earn it?
"One thing I would like to see out of Anthony. Lay off the donuts and cheeseburgers. I thought his weight/physical condition looked suspect at best last year. Losing 10-15 pounds wouldnt hurt him."
Reyes is not at all portly. It'd be pretty hard to since he was constantly lifting at USC.
by ryanisforever on Dec 15, 2006 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
The Great Pujols
It's a canned baseball Bull Durham-type quote and nothing to get worked up over IMO.
the funny
I just dont subscribe to the same obsession some have with him or this idea that Tony can't help him, work with him, or suggest anything to him.
He's a player just like everyone else. Why we would/should treat him differently is beyond me. I just laugh at the myth that is Anthony Reyes on this board.
beano
That's madness.
Reyes' ERA was over 5.00
this isn't "madness", and it certainly isn't a crime. everyone knows that he's in the rotation. but if Reyes is acting cocky about it, then TLR just wants to make sure he's motivated. that's part of his freaking job, after all. and if Reyes can't get anybody out in camp, and Thompson (for example) can, then why shouldn't Thompson get the spot?
that's all TLR was saying.
I'll admit that I've probably
That being said, however, much of him being treated differently on this board is that he seems to be treated differently by the team, at least with respect to the media. It was one thing last year when we had a full slate of starters but I'm not sure I understand the wisdom of saying that Reyes doesn't have a guaranteed spot when we only have two starting pitchers signed.
We certainly don't know what TLR, DD and Walt are saying to Anthony in person. And it there's little doubt in my mind that they are talking. If they aren't saying these things to him 1-on-1 why are they espousing them to the media? If it's just a blow-smoke-up-media's-ass tactic then its a damn good one cause it's got alot of us fooled, myself included.
My irritation is comparing
I feel more confident in Reyes' projections for the year than AW who has not had an extended starting audition at the big league level.
They said he had to compete for his position...
Jock didn't mention Reyes...
don't see why anybody would be interested in this. Jock wasn't given a presentation on the 2007 rotation and intentionally leave Reyes off of it. he was asked a specific question about Wainwright, and he answered it. Reyes doesn't factor in at all.
It's not about just what Jock said
Wainwright will be in the rotation.
And then TLR says:
Reyes has to earn his spot.
These two statements are inconsistent to me. I fully believe that Reyes will be in the rotation, I just don't like that these guys don't have more positive comments about Reyes particularly in the press. If they are playing mind games, at least do it in person, not via the press.
Do we really think
just like
What is there in last year's performance
I think most good pitchers would tell you that their goal when they take the mound is not to pitch a one-hitter or strike out xx batters but to win the game. Reyes had many opportunities to do that last year, and he came through less often than Jason Marquis. You don't have to be a Hall of Fame manager to think, at this point, that Reyes has to earn a spot in the rotation.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 16, 2006 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Not true
He was not fully inserted into the rotation until July, and was better than Marquis over that span. I don't think you can say he came in less often than Betty.
What we needed during the second half
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 16, 2006 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
Numbers and mind games
It's likely that LaRussa has as much data or more, and such a brilliant and experienced manager knows at least as much as we do about the historic performance of similar young pitchers.
So, his comments make sense only as a specific challenge/insult to Reyes. Which seems hard to justify, given LaRussa's painful tolerance of Marquis.
TLR knows a lot more about baseball than I do, but motivation by insult has pretty much been discredited in most personnel management situations.
Jason Werth
Let me just say I would love this move. In Werth's last full season he had an OPS of 1000 vs Leftys. He Crushes leftys (he sucks vs righys)
If we can get this guy for 1MM it would be a great sign. Plus he has 2 years of arbitration left so he will stay a very reasonable option.
There is plenty of room for one more OF on this team and he can play LF and RF. This move would make me happy.
by Born in 82 on Dec 15, 2006 10:52 AM EST reply actions
Werth's splits
career OBP vs. rhp: .746 (531 AB)
Not sure I see why you say he "crushes" lefties.
Ya,
werth
Thanks for the shout, Erik
by 26thMan on Dec 15, 2006 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Jon Knott
Jayson Werth sounds like a good guy and is no doubt a better defender than Knott (and is two years younger). A Duncan/Knott platoon could be fearsome.
If Werth signs with us, we'd be counting on two outfielders coming off wrist surgeries vs. lefties. That's less than ideal. (But far from a disaster.)
I blame Albert
How can you not want your other young players to adopt that ethic?
Still, I think he's carrying it to an absurd extreme with Reyes and I don't get why he's doing it so publicly. He could tone down the rhetoric with the press and still give Anthony the message behind the scenes.
While that may be true...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 15, 2006 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Same as Bonds...
Bonds v. Pujols
same with Carp...
I just don't get this...
I don't believe Wainwright should be treated this way. I thought after trusting Reyes to pitch game one of the WS and him coming through, we could give him a thumbs up for the rotation.
It is not as if we went out this offseason and signed 2 or 3 good starters for the rotation, we signed one questionable starter in Wells.
I just can't wrap my head around this one. I hope TLR knows what he is doing this time.
Greatness
While switching sports a bit, the concepts remain the same. Players like Ronnie Lott (NFL) and Michael Jordan (NBA) had plenty of confidence in what they were capable of. However, the 'hunger' they speak of when discussing what made them great is the difference between a great career and the hall of fame. While 'hunger' is something which isn't taught, a coach can recognize a need to cultivate it within a player they believe to have the ability to be great, but the player ultimately decides for themself what level of hunger they'll have.
Obviously, I don't know what's in Tony or Dave's head, but knowing coaching, I do understand the reality check needed for competitors with talent, but no hunger to push them towards the greatness they may be capable of. If they keep pushing Reyes to recognize the need to keep working, always keep working, maybe he'll fulfill his potential and be the player the hype tells us he will be.
I do recall reading about Pujols and the level of intensity and hunger he puts in to his preparations for every season. In his first several seasons, he continued to reiterate to the press that he's just hoping to prove his worth to the team and keep getting better. It's not as though he didn't believe he could be the greatest, but he wasn't going to cheat himself by believing he was already good enough and could relax. Having that drive, that hunger, is what brings out the best in every competitor and hopefully it will do the same for Reyes.
I realize I'm making an assumption that Reyes is perceived as not having the hunger I refer to, but there does seem to be an amount of merit to the argument that some amount of push and desire needs to be instilled in the youngster. As such, perhaps giving the manager the benefit of the doubt would be appropriate.
But at the same time
by ryanisforever on Dec 15, 2006 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Slacking
Look at the NBA players in the Olympics. It's not as though those players ignored what was asked of them. They weren't accused of slacking or not working in practice - but did they have the hunger and desire needed to win? Clearly they didn't and we all know the assembled talent of the US team should have dominated the other basketball teams.
Players with talent only cheat themselves when they believe they're the best and can't squeeze more out of what they have. However, the true great competitors never believed that.
yet another sport
by CARPSDAMAN on Dec 15, 2006 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Public statement
The manager however, wants the level of ability they're capable of and will attempt to cultivate a strong desire and hunger to provide it and strive for more.
LaRussa
Maybe we're blowing this a little out of proportion.
it seems like
Two things strike me about Reyes. First is his body language on the mound. He never seems rattled out there. And second is his performance in big games which Larry has stated many times. I think that speaks worlds of Reyes. Those are two things that can't be taught.
Another thing I wonder about is how much these guys learn from Carpenter and how much knowledge Carpenter tries to impart on them.
by jimmybaseball42 on Dec 15, 2006 12:06 PM EST reply actions
Reyes and Werth
As for Werth, I agree that his righthanded power bat and versatility in the outfield are well worth acquiring, but in today's market he might well cost more than a million. So what? The Cardinals may not be the richest team out there, but they're far from the poorest. They've got to be prepared to outbid somebody sometime if they truly want to improve. It would nice at least once to read that such a player hasn't fallen to the Royals or the Reds or some other team that has a lot less to offer but nevertheless has enough to outbid the Cardinals, who continually cling to their own outdated conceptions of value.
by MikeG on Dec 15, 2006 12:07 PM EST reply actions
I agree with Tony...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 15, 2006 12:12 PM EST reply actions
you're right...
we DFA'd Ponson and gave his starts to Reyes. when Mulder came back from injury we gave him a shot to earn his spot back. he didn't/couldn't so we gave HIS starts to Reyes.
you might argue that Reyes should've been given the opportunity before Ponson, but you can't say that TLR didn't force Ponson to compete for his starts.
Complacency
Clearly, Reyes won't be sent down to the minors unless he truly is terrible. He's definitely on until he's off (as opposed to last spring). But, as has been echoed by others on here, TLR sees the possibilities that Reyes could be even better and wants to get the most out of him - to mold him while he's still earning his stripes. As Parcels said this year, let's put the anointing oil away for now.
According to Bernie:
Unfortunately, second place gets us nothing ;/
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 15, 2006 12:44 PM EST reply actions
But if
by rockin redbird on Dec 15, 2006 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Kinda sorta
All things being equal in my profession, I would chose to stay where I prefer. But if I receive an offer that's willing to pay me what I think would be worth it to move and still be able to work for a first class organization, I'd be more apt to do so. However, if I'm offered the same deal, I'm staying within my preference area.
by Baily on Dec 15, 2006 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting note about Schmidt
by Red in Chicago on Dec 15, 2006 12:57 PM EST reply actions
From what's been said,
by rockin redbird on Dec 15, 2006 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Zito won't play in St. Louis...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 15, 2006 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
Remember
We just did 5 years for Carp.
I'd give Zito 5 years...
By the way, what does "n/t" mean?
Reyes
I find it weird that people started to blame albert for TLRS handling of him, now I have read everything.
Heres my point on reyes...LBros said flashes..yes we have seen flashes, but sometimes few and far between. I have no problems letting him work it out in the majors, but lets not annoint him CY Young until those "flashes" are closer together and not months between them.
The world series game was the best I have seen him pitch, lets see him build on it.
nobody has ever anointed him
I agree with that
And on a team with only 4 starters (including Wainwright), I think it's safe to say that he is one of the 5 best. He was one of the 5 best all last year, though, and that didn't mean anything to Tony.
by Toddius396 on Dec 15, 2006 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
That's what I think as well
Also can't imagine Walt will ever again allow so many starters from one staff become free agents in one season. Gotta stagger those contracts so it's not such a mad dash or mish mash of trying to find round pegs for round holes instead of square pegs or recycled pegs then hope for the best.
by Baily on Dec 15, 2006 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
That point is spot on...
Poker Face
by TenRingsAndCounting on Dec 15, 2006 2:17 PM EST reply actions
OT
Do you think
by rockin redbird on Dec 15, 2006 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
no kidding
Tony
Didn't Reyes...
I believe I remember him stating in an interview that he basically just relied on great command of the four seamer and the Tigers lack of discipline in the WS start.
That kind of approach obviously isn't going to be sufficient over the long haul... LaDuncan has good reason to be concerned about him, imo.
LaRussa, Reyes and Werth
Also, why did L.A. nontender Werth -- they're in need of offense with Drew gone. He was only making the minimum. I can't imagine he would have made that much in arbitration.
Finally, great blog. Nice work guys. And please keep up the professional atmosphere here -- the P-D forums have gone to hell with all the juvenile posts.
by squeeg on Dec 15, 2006 3:06 PM EST reply actions
Honestly, I like Werth
Fantastic post Larry
I think you've hit the Reyes/TLR saga directly on the button. At the same time, I'm sure they are BOTH very aware that it is all done with the best intentions for Reyes' future.
As far as A.W. coming to the rotation; I'm cool with that, but only if we are getting back (at the very least) a shell of the Izzy of old. If its the end of July and Izzy's blowing saves like Paris Hilton at a Fred Durst orgy, well then its time to move Wainwright back into the closer role.
Final side note on the reader poll. Last year this time we were all freaking out because we weren't spending enough money. Now 72% of us are happy with the non-spending? Amazing what a ring will do to all our attitudes huh?
GO CARDS!
Reyes was using the change in the WS
Yeah but...
I don't know that much about pitching really... I'm just pointing out that it's still not completely clear how he's going to get major leaguers out long term. The change is his bread and butter, but there are issues with it. His 4 seamer is above average, but not out of this world good. He seems like a young Matt Morris to me, except without the killer curve. Certainly, he should be pitching every 5 days in the majors, but we need a Batista/Suppan type or two to make sure there's not another total rotation meltdown in 2007
Quid pro quo
As for Wagonmaker getting a pass compared to Sophie, the fact of the matter is that Adam was the most consistently good pitcher the Cardinals had last year. Reyes had plenty of stretches where he struggled to find his command or a proper gameplan. Wainwright never posted three bad relief appearances in a row (or 4 out of 5) and overall was our second best pitcher.
I agree that Reyes has plenty upon which to improve and that La Russa is doing the right thing by trying to push his young pill-thrower to keeping working hard. But in reality, the whole damn rotation outside of Carpenter is up for grabs and to single out a single pitcher is wrong-headed.
TLR calling out the vets
Good point. How about taking the philosophy beyond the position of pitcher? Why not have TLR declare a ST derby for the right field position given Juan's troubles late last season? Throw Rodiguez and Skip Shu into the ring with Juan. Hey, TLR can call out Rolen too. Let Rolen compete for the starting 3B job with Spezio.
I'm not really sure why we care
LaRussa's doing it to make sure Reyes come to camp in shape and mentally ready to pitch. He's challenging him. Reyes, I'm betting, will meet that challenge and be very good for us this year. I couldn't care less how LaRussa challenges him.
Off topic
reyes cy young remark
With that said I don't know that I'd trade him unless you can get a big time arm. He's worth his spot in the rotation. I guess heres my biggest thing...When prior came up lots of hype, but he had games where you could go ok i see it...with reyes i have seen lots of hype and little delivery. However I did give him his kudos in the WS. That made me believe. If he can just go 6 innings in connsecutive starts I'd be a lot easier on the guy.
Reyes v Wainwright
Treating everyone fairly is not the same as treating everyone the same.
Speculation
I'd only trade reyes
So for a sskeptical as I am of reyes i wouldnt trade him unless it was for someone real good. A good bat(miggy C, or good arm)
Example
OH
ya i dunno
Kurt Vonnegut, meet Rick Ankiel
A man viewed on TV a ballet performance by two hindered dancers, restricted beyond watchability. All of a sudden, the couple's shackles & masks were broken and they began to dance so beautifully as to fill your heart with pure joy. Within moments, government officials swarmed onto the stage and secured the performers. Then the man's headphones blasted again and the memory vanished.
Ankiel's saga is much the same. We had seen the real beauty of his talent and projected his golden future in our minds. Then all of that was taken away. We should not blame Rick for him ruining our grand plans; we should mourn his loss, of him being robbed of his God-given skills. We should be fortunate that he still has an opportunity to claim a portion of the prize that was to be his.
It is called ...
by Leo on Dec 15, 2006 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
The underrated D. Goold has some must read stuff
including this note on Reyes:
"Keeping the BPS stat in mind, the pitcher with the best success with his changeup was a Cardinal starter. However, he was not the pitcher I'm listening to throw Game 7 right now. He was the Cardinal who starter Game 1. With a minimum of 100 batters faced, rookie Anthony Reyes has the best success with his changeup in the NL, and the third-lowest in the majors, according to James' Handbook. The No. 1 changeup in baseball, no surprise, belongs to Johan Santana, whose opponents' BPS off the changeup is .352. Reyes' opponent BPS was .415. The next closest in the NL was Philly lefty Cole Hamels' .451 and then the list spikes to more tha .500."
Hamels
He'll throw strikes
by Baseball addict on Dec 15, 2006 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
larussa and the big tuna
Absolutely
Another interesting comparison may be their management/handling of large-ego players. Parcells has the ultimate problem child in the NFL in Terrell Owens, and yet is no more cowed by him than any other player, as he tries to coach the team toward its next victory - perhaps it because of the "let the game humble you" philosophy he carries. La Russa's teams have had some big heads as well, Pujols being just one, but I can't picture a TO-level blowup with any of his teams.
If Reyes is that confident in his own abilities, that's great - let it fuel his success to think he has something to prove to his manager. I hope no one tries to characterize this as a "rift" between player and manager at this point, though...
Reyes still might be traded
If you're
by rockin redbird on Dec 15, 2006 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
I hope this hasn't been brought up yet
Ummm....correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought I heard something about a 100 MIL dollar payroll this season. 84.5 is less than last year and we've only got 4 starting pitchers.
Why don't they give Suppan 10 million?
Or even Weaver 8?
Seriously, all this talk about Rodrigo Lopez and Joel Pinero is starting to piss me off when there's a solid pitcher in Suppan and another one who had great success in the postseason under Duncan in Weaver.
Just really frusterates when it looks as if Milwaukee can afford Suppan but the Cardinals can't. (or won't)
by Big Red on Dec 15, 2006 9:07 PM EST reply actions
i think it's
World Series Game One
Tankersly got signed away
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3407
It's not like we have a ton of depth at AAA. Why would they let Tank, the only pitcher outside of Reyes and perhaps Narveson who pitched well, sign elsewhere. To a minor league deal nonetheless.
This seems like a potentially real loss given our rotation's status and possible propensity for the DL and one that should have been easily remedied.
Tankersly
It would have been nice to hold on to him, but going out of your way to sign him isn't a priority.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 16, 2006 1:58 AM EST up reply actions
Are the Cardinals making any kind of
We've heard that the Diamondbacks have offered him a sizeable contract.
We've heard that the Rangers have wined and dined him, making hard sales pitches while I'm not sure they've offered him a contract yet.
We've heard the Indians have tried to sell him on the quality of the teams training staff and their ability to keep pitchers healthy.
Does anyone know or have heard anything in what kind of offers or discussions the Cardinals are having with Mark Mulder? Obviously, Walt knows what he is doing as a GM, I have complete faith in him (Juan Encarnacion excluded :D) but it seems the Cardinals policy here is 'Mark knows what our position is, he can accept it or he can not.'
I know he's coming off a shoulder injury and his peripherals have seen a serious decline over the last 3 seasons, but I'd really like to see the Cardinals make a hard run at him as a potential #3 starter for the next few years. I'm not talking about spending a exuberant amount of money, but look at the current market and gauge what a borderline #2, hard #3 starter is making and try to woe him around that.
I think Mark Mulder can still be a special pitcher. Hopefully, the surgery has cleared up any lingering physical ailments. What is left is a correcting mechanics or even a change in philosophy in pitching style. That's something, that if a pitcher is willing to embrace it, Dave Duncan seems able to work his magic on.
The Cardinals are currently $16 million under the originally projected salary season on the year (which is more if you take out deferred pay). The payroll is clearly going to go up in 2007 and beyond, despite what you think of DeWitt and Co. The dominos are going to start to fall and Suppan will either be resigned or taken off the board, Weaver is going to find a home, and the Cardinals are going to be left looking around saying 'Who really is worth the money we have availible to spend it on?'
This isn't a case of spend money because you have money. A healthy Mark Mulder is a quality pitcher, equal to or greater than the likes of Ted Lilly, Gil Meche or Miguel Batista.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 16, 2006 2:14 AM EST reply actions
Nevermind, found this on MLB.com
Dec. 14: The Cardinals are hoping to re-sign Mulder, thinking he'll be able to pitch by midseason after rotator cuff surgery, reported the Belleville News-Democrat. "We're still very hopeful," GM Walt Jocketty said. "I talked to his agent a couple days ago, and I think they're still going through their process. ... He indicated to me that he still thought this was the best place for him. We certainly feel it's the best place for him." The D-backs are believed to have pitched a five-year deal, reported the Arizona Republic. Mulder is also being courted by the Rangers. "
That makes me happy.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 16, 2006 2:18 AM EST up reply actions
I'm an even bigger idiot...
"Redbirds still in the hunt for Mulder, agent says
By Derrick Goold
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
Saturday, Dec. 16 2006
In a week of whirlwind courtship, he got the red-carpet treatment in Texas and
glimpsed what life as a Ranger in the Dallas area is like. He returned home to
receive an offer from the Arizona Diamondbacks and a call from the Cleveland
Indians.
But lefthanded pitcher Mark Mulder is taking this weekend off from free agency.
He has a prior commitment.
A Cardinal the past two seasons, Mulder will marry Lindsey Pringle this
afternoon in Scottsdale, Ariz., and the notion that he wanted to pick a team
before he wears the ring was false, his agent said Friday. Gregg Clifton, the
lefty's representative, said no matter how many teams Mulder narrows his
choices down to, the Cardinals will be one.
"It's gone from 13 to five or six now and when he's ready to make his final
decision ." °°°." °°°. if that's two or three teams at the end of the day, the
Cardinals are in there," Clifton said. "He has a lot of affection for his time
there and the Cardinals will be right there to the end."
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 16, 2006 2:30 AM EST up reply actions
After reading all of this
More on TNIA
So I come home for my VEB "fix" and here's your post on Reyes with the TNIA reference, which was fresh in my mind. I agree with your reasoning why they are being so coy with Reyes - I just hope it doesn't either ruin the guy or turn him off to staying with the Cards long-term if he develops as expected. That being said, I think Ankiel changed forever how those two are going to treat young pitchers - in their minds the risk of rushing someone vs. taking too long is not even close. Check out this from TNIA pp. 82-83:
On a Thursday morning at the end of March in the clubhouse in Jupiter, Duncan came into LaRussa's office to tell him that a decision on Ankiel's fate had been made by Walt Jocketty: how he would stay with the club until spring training broke and then go down to the minors where those in charge of minor-league development for the Cardinals would take over and determine the best course.
"How much influence do we have on where he's sent?" asked LaRussa.
"I assume we'll have input," said Duncan.
Duncan wanted him to go down to Double-A, where there would be less pressure, but LaRussa worried about the bus trips.
"He'll be fine," said Duncan. "There's less travel in Double-A than in Triple-A."
And then he added something else, pehaps what - in the best of worlds, where there is time to develop young pitchers physically and mentally and the economies of the game don't demand immediate results - should have happened all along.
"He's twenty-three year old. He should be in Double-A."
Just when we thought it was safe to love Tony
Tony is much smarter than I am, so I'm sure he knows what he's doing. It still smacks of disrespect to being saying this so late in the off season game.
armas jr
i know he's
Kindred
I seem to remember starts against Houston, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Cincy and San Diego where he was good.
he was better than a few injured, miserable pitchers... a few of the worst in the league. but i'm not sure how that should make him a "lock" to be a #2-3 type like people here are talking. for the vast majority of his starts, Reyes simply wasn't very good. middling at best.
I don't know...maybe it's because the Cardinals have FOUR starters under control? Think maybe that could be it? Just a bit? It's crazy, I know. And no one thinks he is a "lock," or that he was very good. He had flashes of what he could do, and as Larry pointed out, better than everyone not named Carpenter or Suppan.
this isn't "madness", and it certainly isn't a crime. everyone knows that he's in the rotation. but if Reyes is acting cocky about it, then TLR just wants to make sure he's motivated. that's part of his freaking job, after all. and if Reyes can't get anybody out in camp, and Thompson (for example) can, then why shouldn't Thompson get the spot?
Because Thompson is a reliever?
by ryanisforever on Dec 16, 2006 1:16 PM EST reply actions
I am late to the party, but great post LB.
After seeing what they did to Marquis
P2C is one thing if you're Jeff Suppan or a knee-cartilageless Andy Benes, but if you can throw 94 and offset it with a nasty change and mix in a curve, the whole P2C thing is unnecessary. Not saying that he shouldn't be more economical than he was last season, because he was kaput after five innings too often. His biggest problem was falling in love with his changeup and ignoring his fastball. Reyes has a good enough FB to dominate a game, i.e. Chicago and Detroit.
by ryanisforever on Dec 16, 2006 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
You read my mind with the "5 inning"
The benefits of P2C go beyond making stars out of (mostly) average pitchers like Suppan and Marquis. By pitching to contact, starters throw fewer pitches and are more likely to go deep into a game. This makes for a more rested, less-exposed, and more effective bullpen. It also makes for a longer and less injury-filled pitching season and career for everybody involved.
The whole point is strike outs are expensive. Its not only expensive to sign strike out pitchers, but strike outs also "cost" a pitcher and a team extra pitches. If you consider that most starters now are limited to a 100 pitch count, it can be the difference between going 5 and 7 innings.
Look at Chris Carpenter: No one doubts his ability to pick up a K, but he still embraces the P2C philosophy.
good post lb
first point: reyes, no matter what tony says, has a job in the rotation, unless he LOSES it in spring training, larussa can say there is a competition, but that at this point would be for slot 5, while u have carp, reyes, wainwright, and wells in the other slots, so unless reyes gets killed every spring start or got hurt or something, then he is there
point two: i do believe that the ankiel situation greatly affects how tony, dunc, and the rest of the organization treat reyes, and that may also be why wainy was in the bullpen (in low pressure situations) instead of the rotation last year, by the end of the year, wainy had convinced them, and they let him close, i will forever be shocked that larussa did that, because it went against his grain totally
point three: reyes was never able to get stretched out last year, now i dont mean loosened up, i mean getting deep in games, the game in chicago, and game one of the series were his only 8 inning efforts IIRC, i am not saying he cant go deep, just that he didnt, and i also noticed that he very much benefitted from an extra days rest, when he was on a normal turn, it seemed like he was just an average pitcher, but when he got an extra day or two, he was a stud, and the thing is, you only get so many chances a year to get those extra days
so what i have tried to say is, i think he is a lock for the rotation, i think he will pitch well, i think he will be more durable (last year was his first with that type of innings logged i think) from experience, and by the end of the season, if they have not acquired a #2 starter, then he will be the #2
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