wainwright joins the rotation
it's more or less official: wainwright's in the rotation. derrick goold has the scoop in this morning's post-dispatch:
| 2006 | 2007 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| carp | 3.09 | ~3.25 | carp |
| suppan | 4.12 | ~5.00 | wells |
| mulder/weaver | 5.60 | ~4.50 | wainwright |
| marquis | 6.02 | ~4.75 | reyes |
| ponson/reyes | 5.14 | ~5.25 | thompson |
first of all, those are pretty conservative era estimates for 2007. for wells, i used his ZIPS projection; for wainwright, i'm assuming he's a run and a half worse than he was as a reliever last year; and for brad thompson, i'm allowing an increase of 2 full runs over his career big-league era. i'm even projecting that carpenter takes a step backward. nevertheless, if we rough out those estimates over a full season's worth of work, these five starters figure to be about 30 runs better than last year's group; if the two kids progress and keep their eras in the range of 4.00, and/or if wells clicks with duncan, we could be looking at a 50-run bump. so it's not at all unrealistic to project this rotation as 3 to 5 wins better than the one the cards fielded last year. to put it in era terms: last year's rotation compiled an aggregate 4.79 era. these 5 guys project to have an era in the 4.30 to 4.50 range. for comparison's sake, the 2004 starting rotation (which anchored a 105-win team) had an aggregate era of 4.08.
one thing to like about this projected rotation: it can strike people out. the top 4 guys all have career k rates north of 6.5 per 9 innings. the big concern is the workload --- we don't know whether the bottom 4 guys can handle 180 innings apiece. but reyes threw 170+ innings last year without incident; wainwright has topped 150 innings four times in the minors. additional replacement-level arms will undoubtedly be brought aboard for insurance (i would still like to see them take a shot at john thomson), and a jon lieber or kris benson might shake free in a trade either before or during the season. but if these are the five guys the cards end up with, i think they will still compete. a rotation built around those five starters should be good enough to get the team into the mid- to high 80s in wins.
is there room for improvement? you betcha --- tons of it. but the cards are wise to stay patient and wait until they can get a pitcher who would really improve the team, rather than make a panicky acquisition (eg, a badly overpriced suppan or weaver) that kinda sorta looks like an improvement on paper. the pitchers who truly might have made the cards better either are committed to the west coast (jason schmidt, randy wolf, greg maddux) or are just flat-out too expensive (barry zito). given those players' unavailability, the team has made the reasonable decision to improve from within. to repeat myself from one week ago:
0 recs |
131 comments
Comments
Hey Larry
by onephinepeace on Dec 14, 2006 8:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Names vs performance
The rush to get the "next best" pitcher available has been comical, and I agree that the "no names" we can put out there may be much better as well as much cheaper.
Weaver would have to be crazy not to get back on board after the make-over Duncan gave him. And I see him getting better. But Suppan is unlikely to be any better than he was last year--excellent when he's on, but extremely vulnerable when he's pitching in a hitter's park or doesn't have his best command. And over the next three years, he's likely to slide slowly down hill just as Woody Williams did.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 14, 2006 8:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Man we were bad in 2006
I still feel we HAVE to sign one more guy. I just don't see anyone in this rotation having long outings after Carpenter very often. I mean that is why Suppan was nice. He threw in a couple 7 or 8 innings pitching performances in during the season. Groundballer's can be more efficient wow strike out pitchers need more pitches so by the 6th they are hitting 100 pitches. Even if they are pitching good.
The one nice thing about watching young guys from your organization pitch. Even if they fail it is still enjoyable. Its like a Dad watching his kid pitch. Thats why I am happy to see the Cardinals finally take a step in the right direction and focusing on holding on to talent. It just takes patience.
I was looking at BP and they were saying the market is up 47% from last year in terms of baseball contracts. So any big deals from last year seem rather cheap about now. The increase is from higher revenue across of all MLB from various sources.
It made me think if you were smart enough to predict this trend of higher revenue than predicted higher spending. Than a higher rate of inflation and invested heavy last year. You could be viewed as awfully smart the next year. The Jays GM instantly came to my mind.
by DimitroffVodka on Dec 14, 2006 8:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
One more guy
by Zubin on Dec 14, 2006 9:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brad Penny
by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Dec 14, 2006 8:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lucky penny
by BigJawnMize on Dec 14, 2006 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
penny
by the way, penny makes $7.5MM in 2007, $8.5MM in 2008, and there is an $8.75MM club option for 2009 ($2MM buyout). not a bad contract.
by dmb60614 on Dec 14, 2006 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you are right
by BigJawnMize on Dec 14, 2006 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Penny
by Futility Infielder on Dec 14, 2006 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No. 2 guy
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 14, 2006 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yesterday
I wouldn't mind AW in the rotation. Hopefully the Looper/Thompson suggestions are just a bridge that will take us to Mulder at the end of June.
by nybirdfan on Dec 14, 2006 9:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm with ya...
I'd like this to be our midseason rot.
- Carp
- Mulder
- AW
- Reyes
- Wells
by jose smokeindo on Dec 14, 2006 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus he's a lefty
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 14, 2006 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mulder is done...
by BigJawnMize on Dec 14, 2006 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If I had my druthers
I'm also curious about what it would take to sign Claussen, given his non-tender and current medical state.
by BozCardsFanSF on Dec 14, 2006 9:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
What the heck was I talking about
by BozCardsFanSF on Dec 14, 2006 9:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mixed feelings
Yet, I do agree Cards have been prudent to be patient and can only hope they are able to somehow swing a deal for one more quality pitcher during the season. I'm still hoping Mulder is resigned for a mid-season booster shot as I feel he'll come back OK and finish season strong. Again, nothing more than a gut feeling.
And while I sure would have preferred Walt had made a Freddy Garcia type of deal as the Phillies did, I do advocate emphasis on player development and promotion from within the Cards system. There is nothing better than a good-to-great farm system annually turning out talent. I like to see more money spent there on best in the business scouts, coaches, etc.
by Baily on Dec 14, 2006 9:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great Move.
Logically, given the status of this overhyped and inflated market, promoting from within is the best move to play.
by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 14, 2006 9:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
how do you know he is more useful as a starter
i'm a little worried AW is gonna struggle as a starter in 07
by brock on Dec 14, 2006 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah.
by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 15, 2006 5:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
alright...
If that number 2 guy is not going to be had, then where do we possibly get this 100 million payroll? I think the attention should be turned to improving the outfield. I am somewhat intrigued by Trot Nixon. I think his attitude along with defense would be great for this team. I am somewhat expecting a slump from Duncan, not to say that he was a fluke, but teams will learn to pitch to him.
by BleacherBum on Dec 14, 2006 9:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Duncan
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 14, 2006 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
100 MILLION
by CARPSDAMAN on Dec 14, 2006 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
repeats of last year
i just hope that this year we can actually make something happen and actually IMPROVE THE TEAM, it seems like we have done nothing but go downhill since that mulder trade
i love what walt j. has done for the team in the past, but its simply a case of "what have you done for me lately"
i worry sometimes, but worrying all year last year brought us a championship... oh the irony
by Dankston on Dec 14, 2006 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
apology
by jojo5492 on Dec 14, 2006 9:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
no worries
by airhad on Dec 14, 2006 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No problem jojo
by Valatan on Dec 15, 2006 3:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols and Carpenter
by lefty fan on Dec 14, 2006 10:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Play a hard nine...
by BigJawnMize on Dec 14, 2006 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We got into the playoffs in 2006 as a gift
Wells - ERA the past few years:
2002 - 3.5
2003 - 3.2
2004 - 4.5
2005 - 5.1
2006 - 6.5!
This is our #2 starter for next year.
The next 3 starters have combined for 19 starts in their careers. (0, 1, and 18)
Now, you can put your rose colored glasses on if you want, but this next season is looking like a huge gamble that these guys can actually do the job.
by redbird2006in on Dec 14, 2006 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it is a gamble
there are no rose-colored glasses here; we're suggesting that the cards can muster 85 to 90 wins with these five starters, which ain't exactly pie-in-sky optimism. but is jeff weaver --- he of the 5.86 era last season -- gonna make them a 95-win team? is supps? would ted lilly or adam eaton or miguel batista?
they do need to upgrade, and i'd be surprised if there isn't another low-impact acquisition or two. but i don't think we'll look back in four years and say: "damn! think how many more championships could we have won if we had only signed vicente padilla!"
aj burnett? now that may be another story . . .
by lboros on Dec 14, 2006 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be much
by rockin redbird on Dec 14, 2006 10:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hear, hear!
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2006 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i nearly agree with you
by brock on Dec 14, 2006 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's just so damn easy
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 14, 2006 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs
by rockin redbird on Dec 14, 2006 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thompson
That said, I think it can accurately be said that we have acquired a starting pitcher. It's where Wainwright belongs and where he will thrive. He'll at least be as good as Suppan in '07. If you're inclined to panic, we're really only 1 starter down.
Finally, I can't help but think there's going to be a market correction this year. With so many pitchers on the free agent market, I think if Suppan or Weaver wait too long, their options will seriously diminish. They may end up competing against one another. If so, that $10 M price tag may fall to $8.5 in order to avoid ending up in KC. One may fall into our laps!
by chuckb on Dec 14, 2006 10:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Vidro
by RedbirdRay on Dec 14, 2006 10:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
OMG
I bet Seattle fans are in uproar.
by RedbirdRay on Dec 14, 2006 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rotoworld
Makes one appreciate Mr. Jockety that much more when you see some of the bonehead plays made by other GMs... sometimes with a half decade or more of consequences to the team.
by punditmoi on Dec 14, 2006 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Glad I'm not a Mariners fan....
by Hot in Herr on Dec 14, 2006 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reyes and Wainwright
by Carps on Dec 14, 2006 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Last year
by rockin redbird on Dec 14, 2006 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's true
by Carps on Dec 14, 2006 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh well,
by Carps on Dec 14, 2006 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you're not dumb
by lboros on Dec 14, 2006 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can't wait!
by RedbirdRay on Dec 14, 2006 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I look forward to it.
by Carps on Dec 14, 2006 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not dumb
by rockin redbird on Dec 14, 2006 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
by Carps on Dec 14, 2006 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point but...
It will be sad watching Suppan go to another team for one reason (besides his pitching skills)... His attitude. I really think his laid back & humorous demeanor helped gel the rotation together. He was great for all...the fans, the clubhouse & the media. Here's to you and a nice bloated contract Suppan! We're gonna miss ya buddy!
by jose smokeindo on Dec 14, 2006 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reyes and Wainwright
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 14, 2006 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you do have a valid point though...
by jose smokeindo on Dec 14, 2006 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wainwright...
- Wainwright WAS at one time a better prospect that Reyes through Baseball America (so those that are saying Reyes has always been a better "prospect" are mistaken.
- Wainwright DID actually pitch better than Reyes (and Ponson for that matter) when they were having the battle for the number 5 spot in the rotation in spring traininglast year. (I know, small sample size, but it DOES show you he has the ability to start and start well). As we all know, the kid does well under pressure.
- That beutiful curveball is an outstanding outpitch, I don't think Reyes quite has the same advantage with his. Reyes' outpitch is also a pitch that gets HAMMERED when he's off (high fastball).
- Wainwright has show the ability to keep the ball down more (and in the park more often as well).
by MRCARD on Dec 14, 2006 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but
by brock on Dec 14, 2006 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wainwright & Consistency
Cards Best 15 was a sum of their WPA contributions over 15 team games. Bench players & relief pitchers had to accumulate at least 8 appearances over that time, and starting pitchers were measured over 4 consecutive starts.
Using this measurement, here are the best and worst stretches for certain players:
Pujols 234.7 / - 43.4
Rolen 120.3 / -109.1
Spiezio 111.6 / - 39.9
Brekky 101.9 / -104.5
Bennett 97.5 / - 39.0
Duncan 93.6 / - 56.9
Miles 72.8 / - 65.7
Wilson 68.5 / - 37.7
Eckstein 58.6 / - 71.8
Edmonds 54.8 / - 68.0
Taguchi 53.4 / - 48.7
Molina 33.7 / - 75.5
Luna 42.2 / - 89.4
Belliard -3.2 / -112.4
Carp 152.2 / - 38.4
Suppan 111.6 / - 56.7
Reyes 83.7 / - 58.0
Marquis 70.8 / - 88.5
Mulder 58.3 / -153.8
Ponson 53.0 / - 60.7
Weaver 27.1 / - 52.9
Izzy 129.4 / -129.3
Looper 86.4 / - 92.3
Adam WW 70.0 / - 15.6
Hancock 64.1 / - 35.4
Flores 53.8 / - 43.9
Johnson 24.5 / - 57.3
What this means is that, even when WW was having his worst performances, he was barely hurting the team overall; that his worst individual games were in the middle of a sea of consistency. (That particular 8-appearance stretch was bookended with a 6/10 implosion against the Brewers - a game I attended in MIL - and the 6/30 Royals thunder-dump at B3.)
by Solanus on Dec 14, 2006 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rebuilding with less pain
Don't get your dobbers down--this team won't be like the 2003 Tigers or the 2007 Washington Nationals. Even without a "true" No. 2 starter, this team is a LONG way from rock bottom.
by blove121 on Dec 14, 2006 11:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Advertisement choice...
by redbird2006in on Dec 14, 2006 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
women like the cards too
by lboros on Dec 14, 2006 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tis the season...
Crazy to have bra ads on VEB? Yes, but the target group for the adervertising might not be so far off.
by BigJawnMize on Dec 14, 2006 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Four Words...
by STLCardinalsFan on Dec 14, 2006 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
by BigJawnMize on Dec 14, 2006 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's right, lboros
by cardgirl on Dec 14, 2006 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for reading cardgirl
by lboros on Dec 14, 2006 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lingerie ads.
by Archaeopteryx on Dec 14, 2006 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Me neither
by rockin redbird on Dec 14, 2006 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm seeing...
by punditmoi on Dec 14, 2006 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stuff you'd rather not know?
It's only the beginning; just wait until next year when all of the Wii-related injuries begin to strike. The Tigers asked Zumaya to stop playing the video game, and he complied. Zumaya was pain-free during the World Series and should be 100 percent next year.
Source: Detroit Free Press
by Urban Pawnee on Dec 14, 2006 11:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Guitar Hero
by mdarshan on Dec 14, 2006 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nah
Plus, every time I go to the gym, I can always tell I suck a lot more at the game.
This totally cracks me up. Is there anyone whose can't be affected by Guitar Hero?
by dontEATnachos on Dec 14, 2006 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guitar Hero...
by MRCARD on Dec 14, 2006 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Zambrano
by RedbirdRay on Dec 14, 2006 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carlos Zambrano
by RedbirdRay on Dec 14, 2006 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm scared of Izzy...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 14, 2006 12:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's a brave guy and says all the right things ...
by Urban Pawnee on Dec 14, 2006 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pitching and outfield help
He is good, not great, but good. Weigh these options and tell me your answer: Looper/Thompson, overpaying for an average outside arm that we are not sure of the product we are getting, or overpay for Suppan and know exactly what to expect. My vote goes for Suppan and hopefully others feel that way.
As for the outfield, why did or does everyone expect Enc to be all that great? His numbers last year were right around his average which is the same as the league average for right fielders. We got what we paid for out of him. I wouldn't mind a Trot Nixon, but that means getting rid of Enc and if we do that, I want someone that will help the team this year, not prospects.
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 14, 2006 12:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ed
by nybirdfan on Dec 14, 2006 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
encarnacion
He could easily put up .300/.350/.515 numbers next year if he comes to spring training in shape instead of sitting on his arse for a month at the WBC, and if he stays healthy (though he led the team in games played, his numbers would have looked a LOT better if he had gone on the DL in August).
Splits: BA/OBP/SLG
Apr .222/.245/.333
May .260/.299/.510
June .367/.385/.551
July .302/.344/.512
Aug .283/.308/.384
Sept/Oct .238/.330/.375
Or his arm might not recover from his surgery and he could put up .230/.330/.375 numbers the whole season, in which case we'll be lucky to limp to the wild card.
by SleepyCA on Dec 14, 2006 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, I think only one commenter
Remember, in 2004 he was probably the No. 5 man.
Reversion to the mean just seems probable. You have the walk-year factor thrown in as well. I'm not sure you want to throw $10 MM a year at Soupcan for a guy who's simply above league average.
Power pitching, as Larry has pointed out, is one of IIRC four factors that influence a team's ability to win in the postseason. That is what the Cardinals will get from Reyes and Wainwright, and perhaps a bit from Weaver if he re-signs. It's reason for some optimism, I think.
by Red in Chicago on Dec 14, 2006 12:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That was me.
2004 2005 2006 04-06
IP: 188 194 190 191
W: 16 16 12 15
L: 9 10 7 9
H: 192 206 207 202
SO/BB: 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7
ERA: 4.17 3.57 4.12 3.95
WHIP: 1.37 1.39 1.45 1.40
OK. To review. A 1.40 ERA over three years is atrocious. Ditto a 1.66 K/BB ratio. Ditto a 5.16 K/9 rate. A .272 cumulative BAA? Pretty bad. A 3.09 BB/9 rate? Decent. Merely decent.
But you know what's really scary about those numbers? Those were his PEAK YEARS.
Here's the thing. A (barely) sub-4.00 ERA makes Suppan look like he didn't suck. But that's an illusion, folks. His supporting numbers were truly bad.
If you didn't notice, the Cardinals put a lot of emphasis on only signing players who can pull their weight defensively. Rolen, Edmonds, and Pujols are Gold Glovers. Best at their positions in the league, or at least they have been for a good chunk of the time Suppan's been here.
Add to this that the now-departed Grudz was a Gold Glover this year. Add to this the fact that the Cardinals accept Molina's (and Matheny's) complete uselessness on offense because of their defensive skill. See also, in this vein: Juan Encarnacion, So Taguchi, Aaron Miles, David Eckstein... the list goes on an on.
What I'm saying is that the perenially outstanding Cardinals defense, combined with the great baseball atmosphere in STL, has a way of making just about any pitcher look a lot better than he really is. (See: Scott Schoeneweis, Darren Oliver, Kent Bottenfield, and so many other retread, soft-tossing scrubs we've made look good since the early 90s).
You'd almost HAVE to be an obese alcoholic not to raise your game here (see: Sidney Ponson), and even if you are, you're likely to do a lot better here than you will in, say, Texas (see: Vicente Padilla).
This is the reason why the Cardinals don't ever sign strikeout pitchers. It's not that they don't "value" strikeouts, as some have suggested on these boards. It's that strikeouts are expensive, and with their defense as good as it is, they refuse to overpay for them. Their MO is to get just about any warm body they can who doesn't have an absolutely irreparable control problem (see: Ankiel), get them to pitch to the strike zone, even without good stuff, and force hiters to put the ball in play, where, more likely than not, it's going to find an outstanding defender to gobble it up.
This does NOT mean that Jeff Suppan is good. And it does NOT mean that GOOD pitchers will also pitch better in STL, just like BAD pitchers will. The fact that Suppan's ERA was under 4.00 is misleading, and the fact that so many of you all out there accept this as meaning that, gee, guess he was pretty good after all--Walt was right again!--gives him the public support he needs to keep on bargain shopping, even though he's got the fattest annual revenue stream this side of New York and Boston.
I'm sick of this crap. Sign Weaver.
I also noticed yesterday that someone wrote, in response to my encouragement to sign Weaver, something like "Well they wouldn't give Burnett 5 years, so what makes you think they'd give Weaver 4?"
Well here's the thing: they DIDN'T GET Burnett. What needs to be understood is that the Cardinals are not gauging the market correctly. Another way of saying it is that they are CHEAP, year after year, in such a way that players feel disrespected by their offers, and we keep getting chumps like Kip Wells on the roster.
Give Weaver his four years. Give him his $8-$9 per. That's the going rate. Deal with it. I'm all for putting Reyes and Wainwright in the rotation. But Thompson? LOOPER? That we are even being forced, as fans, to confront these possibilities, after how many (?) seasons of 3 million+ attendance and a huge WS financial windfall, is disgraceful.
I'm not saying that Kip Wells isn't a good sign. Great things were said about him coming up, as they were with Weaver. STL has a way of working its magic, year after year, for the above-stated reasons. But if they can make Wells look like a decent major league starter, just imagine what they could do with Weaver...
by MKDCardinal on Dec 14, 2006 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i see your overall point...
in 2003 (the year before he came to StL), he was the BoSox's version of Marquis: pretty awful during the regular year and left off of the playoff roster. and this was before the BoSox had Schilling and Arroyo and Wells. they were starting John Burkett over Suppan, for Pete's sake.
he has "won" some big games in the playoffs, but mostly because he was able to hold the Cardinals in the game until the offense finally pushed 3-4 runs across the board. and that's his M.O.: Suppan will keep you in games. he won't dominate, or win games single-handedly like a 10-12 million/year pitcher should do.
if Suppan stays in the NL, signing with the someone like the Pads (if they don't get Wells), he'll be fine. if he goes back to the AL (Toronto?), he'll get shelled. full on shelled. like he historically has.
i appreciate his past contributions to the Cardinals. but no way should his salary more than double over last season.
by kindred on Dec 14, 2006 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And now for rebuttal of the rebuttal....
I think those of us who are agreeing to disagree with you here are simply trying to make one point:
- You say "Suppan sucks!"
- We say, "No, Suppan is pretty average."
Ergo, it might be more appropriate (or less inflammatory) to frame your position around the dollars involved. One suggested example: "Spending $10M/yr for an average pitcher like Suppan would suck!"
I won't bother to debunk your slightly disingenuous argument about being able to completely discount Soup's solid ERA because of our defense, despite the fact that defense is already fairly well factored in to ERA (hint: that's the EARNED Runs part...after all, lots of errors behind him wouldn't affect his ERA much at all), but it's hardly worthwhile since ERA is far from the best indicator of performance, and I don't see anyone here holding up Suppan as worthy of consideration solely because of his ERA.
What I would like to comment on, however is this:
You keep using emotion-laden words like "sucks", "atrocious", and "truly bad", but those are really just subjective assessments. Your argument might be a little more persuasive if you backed it up with something other than your (very clearly articulated) Suppan-hate.
For instance, you claim his Cardinals (3-year) 1.40 WHIP is "atrocious". Yet in an earlier post touting Weaver as the far superior signing, you hold up his remarkably similar WHIP and proudly proclaim: "Weaver, on the other hand, is good. His career WHIP is 1.34".
Dude, 0.06 WHIP is an awfully thin threshold between "atrocious" and "good". So if 1.40 is "atrocious" and 1.34 is "good", then I'm guessing that the Rockies' Jeff Francis with his 1.29 WHIP last year must be "freakin' awesome OMFG!!!11!"
See what I did there? I held up a single stat in a vacuum and then mixed in some subjective adjectives in an extreme way to try and make a point.
I did something similar in my (now admittedly) "lopsided analysis" of some of JuanCar's numbers recently, and got properly called out for it by the discerning members of this forum. I'm still not a fan of Juan or his performance, but my posted analysis was indeed less than complete, and I learned my lesson.
My point is that several of Suppan's stats taken by themselves are far from compelling, but when his overall performance as a Cardinal is taken as a whole, he is clearly a very consistent/solid/"average" pitcher who will typically give you plenty of "quality starts" and lots of innings.
Now if you want to say that the dude isn't worth $10M/year, a lot of us might agree with you. But when you say that the "dude sucks", we're probably going to scrunch up our faces a little and go "well...."
But on the plus side...we all definitely know where you stand on Weaver vs. Suppan! ;-)
by Mr Clean on Dec 15, 2006 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel you
Now, I'll admit it. While pitching for the Cardinals, Jeff Suppan was a very average pitcher. There. However, I must note that Soup had thrown nearly 1300 major league innings before he donned a Cardinal uni, and let me tell you: they weren't pretty. They weren't even average.
And as far as the WHIP argument goes, yeah, I'd say a .06 difference in WHIP is actually pretty substantial. And I'd also agree that any WHIP below 1.30 is pretty damn good.
Between 1.30-1.35 is merely good. 1.35-1.39 is decidedly aight, average, on the very fringes of belonging on a competitive team's roster, and 1.40+ is basically throwing junk. So I'll grant you that "atrocious" may have a slight exaggeration. He was right on the borderline of atrocity. Is that so outrageous?
I'll just note again that Suppan's career WHIP is 1.42 [cough]. And we're not talking about a rookie here.
You're right, though; the argument w/r/t ERA was arguably disingenous. However, as far as defense goes, I'm not talking about errors here, as much as I'm talking about range. I.e. Making plays that other players wouldn't even be able to fail in attempting to make.
But I wasn't just picking out random statistics. The adjectives might have been strong, but I was using a series of statistics (K/BB, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, BAA) that most people who are well-versed in sabermetrics will agree are the most accurate in evaluating past and future pitching success. You know how variable and unreliable ERA and Wins are.
Saying Suppan was good because he had a 4.00-ish ERA is a lot like saying that Edmonds sucks because his BA was .250. Those are the half-truths...
by MKDCardinal on Dec 15, 2006 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
PS
Now it's just one stat. But...
by MKDCardinal on Dec 15, 2006 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tell me about it...
*innocent grin*
];->
by Mr Clean on Dec 15, 2006 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
PPS
by MKDCardinal on Dec 15, 2006 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely true...
For example, Soup is a ground ball pitcher who also doesn't give up a lot of homeruns...which means that a lot of his walks turn into double plays...in fact, he was clearly above average in DPs in 2006. So (one might argue) the fact that his WHIP is only average might be compensated by the fact that many of his walks or hits turn into DPs. Etc.
Anyway.
I think we've done a good job of presenting each of our positions.
Personally, I'd be happy with either a Suppan OR a Weaver signing at this point. Weaver has more risk (see his stint with the Angels), but he also has much more upside potential (his turnaround under Duncan, and his "stuff"). On the other hand, Suppan is a less "risky" choice since you pretty much know exactly what you'll get every start, but he doesn't have the potential to be a "legitimate" #2 like Weaver could turn into.
Now whether or not we can afford to sign either one remains to be seen...
by Mr Clean on Dec 15, 2006 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who is our #2 starter?
My problem with this statement:
Young strikeout pitchers throw more pitches and less innings. The Cards will run the risk of taxing their bullpen AT LEAST 2/5 of the time with Reyes and Waino in there. I'm not as concerned about their DURability as I am with their ABILITY to get deeper into games.
I'm ok with these two in the rotation, but to me, its imperative that we have 2 innings-eaters at the top of the rotation, like we've had for the last 4-5 years. Which, as of now, we don't.
This is where signing Jeff Weaver comes in. I'm not saying that Weaver is a sure-fire legit #2, or that he can give us 6+ good innings every start, given his recent history, but at least he is durable. We have to sign one more pitcher who can go out and average over 5 2/3 innings a start.
If he's not asking for a 4 year deal, I think that we should take the chance on a long-term Duncan miracle man in Weaver.
by silent_bob on Dec 14, 2006 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mulder
Well then maybe Narvie. To me, that's a lot better then Thompson/Looper. But what if Narvie is on fire when Mulder comes back? Say he has a record of 7-2.
That would be an awesome "tough" situation to be in.
I still want Wainer in the pen and Mulder and Suppan back, but the way things are going, that is going to remain a wish.
With Mulder we will be searching for 2 starter again next year because he will only sign a 1 year deal and Wells will be a free agent.
With Suppan, we can lock him up for 2 or 3 years and focus on adding to the rotation, not trying to replace.
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 14, 2006 12:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mulder
by nybirdfan on Dec 14, 2006 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
5 Years??
What ever happened to Mulder wanting to come back to St. Louis to prove the trade wasn't a waste? I believe the best thing for all parties is for him to come back for a one to two year incentive laden deal in St. Louis. He can prove to himself he wasn't a wasted trade and put himself in a better position as a free agent after that.
If he came back in July and pitched 3 old Mulder months, I'm sure the Cards would agressively re up his contract. They have the payroll for it and him in vintage form in that #2 starter that the Cardinals have pursued for at least 3 offseasons.
by WiscCard on Dec 14, 2006 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Put yourself in his shoes
Wow. Now that I think about it, I doubt he'll re-sign with us. Crap.
by airhad on Dec 14, 2006 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it is a risk...
on the other hand, signing Mulder for one years makes no sense, because he won't be ready to pitch until June, at the earliest. at that point, you won't know what you're going to get. a modest base + decent incentives over 2-3 years makes more sense for both parties.
i don't think the Cards have a chance at him. honestly, i'm not sure they really want him that badly. i don't think i do either.
by kindred on Dec 14, 2006 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's gone...
by Timbo02 on Dec 14, 2006 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is exactly
by OKCardsfan on Dec 14, 2006 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i remember that post timbo
by lboros on Dec 14, 2006 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i really think he's coming back
If we do a 2 year deal or 1 + an option w/ incentives, that seems like what he would want the most -- a good defense and relatively homer-free ballpark (Texas and Arizona are homer havens) and a chance to win a bunch of games w/ a relatively low ERA.
by chuckb on Dec 14, 2006 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
last starter
by Bird Watcher on Dec 14, 2006 1:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i dunno if anyone has mentioned it, but...
by DJ87 on Dec 14, 2006 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bernie mentioned last night
by chuckb on Dec 14, 2006 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Somebody would have to go
You have Flores, Rincon and Ty Johnson from the left side of the bullpen and Springer, Kinney and Izzy from the right. That leaves Looper and Thompson to battle it out for a starting spot. Maybe Narv gets a shot at starting in ST and may the best man win. Likely, though, he starts the season in Memphis and hopes for a call-up.
by Baily on Dec 14, 2006 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
December afternoon musings....
- We're the reigning World Champs (how 'bout that for a Christmas present!)
- The core of our team is the cream of the NL
- Our everyday team is pretty well set with the exception of one starter
- We still have money to spend
- We haven't traded away any of our prospects
- Our lineup has upside with the youngsters growing into their potential (Reyes, Wainwright, Duncan, Molina, TJ, Flores, Kinney, Thompson, etc.)
- Walt's patience will offer plenty of salary dump/trade opportunities over the winter, through spring training, and into the season
The current and future economics of baseball will dictate that player development will be the key. Only teams with truly deep pockets like the Yankees/Red Sox will be able to afford fielding teams with mostly/completely veterans. Look at the prices that average players are commanding in the FA market this winter! For the Cardinals, staying competitive means more and more growing our own.
Maybe the Mulder trade could do for us what the Kazmir/Zambrano trade did for the Mets - change the organizational mindset for the better. While everyone in NY dreams of having Kazmir on today's team, if they still had Kazmir they would also still have Duquette as GM and might not have Beltran, Delgado, etc. and as strong a team over all. The Mets got a lot smarter after that trade - and maybe our guys have gotten smarter, too.
All this means that hot stove conversations will be frustrating and our Christmas lists for players like Schmidt, Zito, etc. won't be fulfilled. But I have a feeling that if we do this right, we have a great shot at being there year-in and year-out, which is a lot of fun.
Sorry for the long post - GO CARDS!
by wildman on Dec 14, 2006 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
even the Yankees...
player development has always been incredibly important. it's magnified now, but i think all the talk of it lately is partially an overreaction to the booming market. i mean, even the Royals are spending a fortune on middling talent. teams aren't going to back away from signing marquee FAs. sure, the Mets developed Wright and Lee, but in recent years they've spent heavily on Pedro, Glavine, Beltran, Delgado, Lo Duca, Floyd, K. Matsui, Green, Wagner, etc. and that spending resulted in a 9th inning chance for Beltran to send them to the World Series.
The Tigers spent a lot to bring in Pudge, Rogers, Ordonez to complement their youth movement. This stuff isn't going to all-of-sudden stop. and teams that spend the most in FA are still going to have the best chance to compete for World Championships. you can't really get there on player development alone.
by kindred on Dec 14, 2006 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I do think it's interesting that with all the rumors over the past two years about trading away Reyes, Wainwright, Duncan, even Rasmus that it hasn't happened. Doesn't mean it won't, but it just feels like we are more committed to the young guys than we used to be. And I like that.
by wildman on Dec 14, 2006 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I need help!
by OKCardsfan on Dec 14, 2006 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
it would seem to me
i'm not even sure that comparing the results of the same pitcher under different pitching coaches would be valid, but it might give you a better idea.
by sdesserman on Dec 14, 2006 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry
by aet15 on Dec 14, 2006 3:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Weaver (Response to Response)
Listen, I'm going to reiterate that Suppan sucks. I'm also going to repost below the "retort" stats that Mr. Clean posted:
2004 2005 2006 04-06
IP: 188 194 190 191
W: 16 16 12 15
L: 9 10 7 9
H: 192 206 207 202
SO/BB: 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7
ERA: 4.17 3.57 4.12 3.95
WHIP: 1.37 1.39 1.45 1.40
OK. To review. A 1.40 ERA over three years is atrocious. Ditto a 1.66 K/BB ratio. Ditto a 5.16 K/9 rate. A .272 cumulative BAA? Pretty bad. A 3.09 BB/9 rate? Decent. Merely decent.
But you know what's really scary about those numbers? Those were his PEAK YEARS.
Here's the thing. A (barely) sub-4.00 ERA makes Suppan look like he didn't suck. But that's an illusion, folks. His supporting numbers were truly bad.
If you didn't notice, the Cardinals put a lot of emphasis on only signing players who can pull their weight defensively. Rolen, Edmonds, and Pujols are Gold Glovers. Best at their positions in the league, or at least they have been for a good chunk of the time Suppan's been here.
Add to this that the now-departed Grudz was a Gold Glover this year. Add to this the fact that the Cardinals accept Molina's (and Matheny's) complete uselessness on offense because of their defensive skill. See also, in this vein: Juan Encarnacion, So Taguchi, Aaron Miles, David Eckstein... the list goes on an on.
What I'm saying is that the perenially outstanding Cardinals defense, combined with the great baseball atmosphere in STL, has a way of making just about any pitcher look a lot better than he really is. (See: Scott Schoeneweis, Darren Oliver, Kent Bottenfield, and so many other retread, soft-tossing scrubs we've made look good since the early 90s).
You'd almost HAVE to be an obese alcoholic not to raise your game here (see: Sidney Ponson), and even if you are, you're likely to do a lot better here than you will in, say, Texas (see: Vicente Padilla).
This is the reason why the Cardinals don't ever sign strikeout pitchers. It's not that they don't "value" strikeouts, as some have suggested on these boards. It's that strikeouts are expensive, and with their defense as good as it is, they refuse to overpay for them. Their MO is to get just about any warm body they can who doesn't have an absolutely irreparable control problem (see: Ankiel), get them to pitch to the strike zone, even without good stuff, and force hiters to put the ball in play, where, more likely than not, it's going to find an outstanding defender to gobble it up.
This does NOT mean that Jeff Suppan is good. And it does NOT mean that GOOD pitchers will also pitch better in STL, just like BAD pitchers will. The fact that Suppan's ERA was under 4.00 is misleading, and the fact that so many of you all out there accept this as meaning that, gee, guess he was pretty good after all--Walt was right again!--gives him the public support he needs to keep on bargain shopping, even though he's got the fattest annual revenue stream this side of New York and Boston.
I'm sick of this crap. Sign Weaver.
I also noticed yesterday that someone wrote, in response to my encouragement to sign Weaver, something like "Well they wouldn't give Burnett 5 years, so what makes you think they'd give Weaver 4?"
Well here's the thing: they DIDN'T GET Burnett. What needs to be understood is that the Cardinals are not gauging the market correctly. Another way of saying it is that they are CHEAP, year after year, in such a way that players feel disrespected by their offers, and we keep getting chumps like Kip Wells on the roster.
Give Weaver his four years. Give him his $8-$9 per. That's the going rate. Deal with it. I'm all for putting Reyes and Wainwright in the rotation. But Thompson? LOOPER? That we are even being forced, as fans, to confront these possibilities, after how many (?) seasons of 3 million+ attendance and a huge WS financial windfall, is disgraceful.
I'm not saying that Kip Wells isn't a good sign. Great things were said about him coming up, as they were with Weaver. STL has a way of working its magic, year after year, for the above-stated reasons. But if they can make Wells look like a decent major league starter, just imagine what they could do with Weaver...
by MKDCardinal on Dec 14, 2006 3:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Suppan
The guy doesn't have the greatest stuff around and in many respects looks like an average guy. But his W-L record and postseason performance says he knows how to pitch and how to win. He's gone 44-26 during the regular season for us, eating up a lot of innings at an ERA of around 4.00. My brothers and I joke about how every time Suppan pitches it's going to be 6 innings and 3-4 runs. But his postseason numbers across all three years are definitely above average - a lot of stud pitchers don't look this good in the postseason: in 9 starts he is 3-3 with an ERA of 3.00, pitching 54 innings and providing 6 quality starts (not counting the 2005 NLCS against Houston when he went 5 innings giving up just 1 earned run). And there are those two huge NLCS game 7 performances.....
Suppan has been an important contributor to our success the last three years and I hate to see him leave. A separate point is what it will cost to keep him. I agree with us letting him go for the numbers that are out there for him. It's too bad, because (to your point) he is a perfect pitcher for StL and will do his best work with the "birds on the bat".
by wildman on Dec 14, 2006 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FIP
4.65 -- 3.66
4.48 -- 4.41
4.68 -- 5.29
Suppan and Weaver, obviously, and I didn't include Weaver's 6.90 FIP with Anaheim. Either neither one sucks or they both do; Weaver hasn't been able to keep the ball in the park--which was once his best skill--since that 2004 season in LA, which explains the big jump.
That said, taking advantage of defense isn't something that all pitchers can do equally. Since Suppan allows more balls in play than a strikeout pitcher, he'll derive more advantage from a good defense. Now that he wants a ton of money it's not a good idea to resign him, but it was an astute move from Jocketty in the first place because it played to the team's advantages.
by DanUpBaby on Dec 14, 2006 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of Jocketty's best moves
by wildman on Dec 14, 2006 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Weaver
I posted on this before.
They have both been durable .500 pitchers, tho Marquis has overall been on better teams and logged a few fewer innings. Their ERA is similar as has been their WHIP. The big difference I see is that Weaver is much more inclined to strike someone out and that Marquis is much better at handling left-handed hitting. Marquis' 3year left/right OPS is 782/805. Weaver's is 897/639. This of course explains the similar results despite Weaver's additional strike outs. Here is Weaver's 3 year l/r split:

And here is a comparison of Weaver and Marquis:

by Zubin on Dec 14, 2006 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not to ignore your numbers
...well...
attitudinal. weaver's body language in his first couple of starts was pathetic. it was as if he didn't want to pitch, let alone in a redbird uni. as his performance improved, so did his attitude. he embraced the team, the city, the success.
on the other hand, as marquis' performance went in the shitter, so did his (well documented) attitude. atl shipped him to us in part because he wouldn't work with mazzone to improve.
it's also a question of (with apologies to miss jackson) "what have you done for me lately?" most of us were pleased when marquis was left off the roster for the last two rounds of the playoffs with good reason. weaver, otoh, had a couple of his best performances in a cardinal uniform in the postseason.
by sdesserman on Dec 14, 2006 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Respectfully, I disagree
And by all acounts Marquis is a competitive guy that likes all aspects of the game. The only knock against Marquis is that he is hard headed and, as you point out, doesn't accept coaching. He seems to think he has better stuff than he actually does. (For the record, that's why Marquis in Chicago with the even harder-headed Pinella scares me. I think Marquis may finally listen to his coaches...)
I know Weaver is coming off a great month or so, but that seems to be a horrific way to judge the guy.
by Zubin on Dec 14, 2006 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's not a post I'm enamored with, but
by DanUpBaby on Dec 15, 2006 4:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pitchers
15-9 with a 3.95 ERA? Why does that look so bad to you? I will take it. His 4.00 ERA might be an illusion, the same as Marquis' 6.02 (or whatever it was) was blowm up because TLR left him in there to chew up innings. Either way, his ERA is under 4.00 with 15 wins a season. How many wins did Carp get last year? I think 15 with a 3.09 ERA and 8 losses. I'll take what Suppan can give us.
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 14, 2006 4:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Side by side
Carp 2006
15-8, 3.09 ERA, 3rd in the cy young voting
Suppan average(2004,2005,2006)
15-9, 3.95 ERA, not as dominate as Carp, but still produces for us.
Believe me, i would take Carp on 3 days rest over a full rested Suppan every day of the week. But how is this guy not a good #2 behind Carp?
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 14, 2006 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You're right
That Wins and ERA an make Jeff Suppan even come close to resembling Chris Carpenter is the best evidence that they are, at bottom, the most misleading and irrelevant statistics one can use in evaluating a pitcher.
PS: You mean not as "dominant" as Carpenter.
by MKDCardinal on Dec 14, 2006 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Walter
My vote for St. Louisan of the year: Walter J. The side by side list of good moves/bad moves is heavily weighted to the sunny side.
by Pokey Joe on Dec 14, 2006 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yeah, what's the deal
by dabirds on Dec 14, 2006 6:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Carmen Cali Era is Over
by liam on Dec 14, 2006 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Showdown for ages
Figured you guys would get a laugh, I did.
by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Dec 14, 2006 10:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Batista to Seattle
by Alxfritz on Dec 15, 2006 7:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs



















