Au revoir, slick rick
by Valatan on Dec 13, 2006 3:31 PM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
Email
PrintWell, the Rick Ankiel era is over. The guy might still have an outside chance at being a somewhat servicable left handed power bat off of the bench for someone, maybe. I guess that would require him not being hurt.
I'm kinda sick about talking about the various pitchers that are out there for the Cardinals to get. They'll get some sort of mid-to-low level rotation guy, and the guy will slightly outperform his career averages in the Lou, and it will cost the Cadinals a middling amount of cash. Unless they come out of nowehere and sign Zito, it won't make that much of a difference, but will leave the team with the payroll room to take on some other team's salary dump at the deadline. The only real gamble at this point is on the health of Reyes and Wainwright.
Last season should indic ate to everyone how expectations can be completely insane, but a few things are beginning to be somewhat clear--the Cubs have certianly improved, if only by adding Soriano and having a healthy Derreck Lee in the lineup full time. The Astros have probably taken a step back, while the Brewers and Reds will probably improve with their youth movements getting another year to mature and compete aggressively. I would even expect the Pirates to be improved.
Eighty three wins will not win the central in 2007, and I would expect it to still be a four team race at the all-star break, with the Cardinals, Reds, Brewers and Cubs all within striking distance until relatively late in the season. I'm already getting excited about the season, and can't wait to see these guys on the field again.
81 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
free agent
Yeah but...
by sweet number 5 on Dec 13, 2006 3:47 PM EST reply actions
Ankiel
That said, I can understand the general weariness about him that pervades Cardinal Nation.
CURIOUS
by TenRingsAndCounting on Dec 13, 2006 3:56 PM EST reply actions
money?
What Money?
2004 $320,000
2005 $400,000
2006 $335,000
Plus the WS Share. Basically he made 700K last year to do ummm.. NOTHING! Not a bad gig.
by TenRingsAndCounting on Dec 13, 2006 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
world series shares
How sick
Carp
Ankiel
Weaver
Reyes
Wainwright
Think about that rotation come 2008 or so. Wow.
Or how about this
Haren
Ankiel
Wainwright
Reyes
I never really thought about that...
Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha.
Feeling much better.
Still a little ill thinking of how Haren could be wearing the Birds on Bat.
RE: I'm already getting excited about the season..
I gotta say that I was disgusted
Imagine if Wainwright said today, "well i think i'd rather be a first baseman." It seemed like a unilateral decision by Ankiel after he experienced some problems. The cardinals invested time and money into him as a pitcher. For him to just throw his hands up in frustration like that was really disingenuous, imo.
I hope the situation is over with. I hope he moves on. Even if he has a successful career as an OF, I don't want it to be with the cardinals. A lot of people are curious about where he is and what he's doing. Not me. I ready for him to just go away.
The difference
I hope we resign him to play outfield at Memphis. We've got too much money invested not to.
by Toddius396 on Dec 13, 2006 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
the cause
I might have felt that way
What we lost with Rick was lost before he decided he didn't want to pitch anymore. To me, it's really sad what has happened and I wish him the best.
re. ankiel
i mean, he had a lot of (what appeared to be mental) troubles with pitching. for a few years, every time he took the mound everyone just wanted to see what would happen, if he could hit the strike zone, if he would blow up again, if he was back on track whatever. that had to be incredibly taxing (whether or not it engendered/exacerbated an anxiety disorder or whatever).
i think it's at best a little silly to characterize his reitirement from pitching a back-stabbing.
he gave up, basically, his shot to make tons of money (which it seemed like he was going to do) in order to have a less direly stressful life.
there've been few days in my sports-following life that have been as heartbreaking as the day he quit pitching, but i don't fault him in the least.
Hate to break it to you...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 13, 2006 4:22 PM EST reply actions
Derrek Lee
This is also, almost exactly the production that Bill James predicts from Lee.
I'm certainly not saying that Derrek Lee couldn't be better than that in 2007, but based on his career, let's just say I'll believe it when I see it. It wouldn't be the first time someone had a completely anomalistic (that probably isn't a word) year.
The net effect of Lilly and Marquis might be negative on the pitching staff, especially in that park.
Hooray for Soriano batting leadoff, not being on base when you aren't hitting solo shots isn't going to be so productive. Hopefully, for their sake, they don't hit him in the one-hole.
As usual, the Cubs will be good if Prior and Lee repeat their one-time career years, until that is actually happening they don't get a second thought from me.
Rick Ankiel
I think Ankiel will pitch again. As soon as he bottoms out as a hitter (sometime this year) he will realize that failing as a pitcher is better than selling used cars and he will start throwing again. Hopefully out of loyalty he will do it for the Cardinals.
by Born in 82 on Dec 13, 2006 4:49 PM EST reply actions
Ankiel: The Super Player
by roscoe on Dec 13, 2006 4:56 PM EST reply actions
I half thought
I know it's complete bull; if he's going to be a hitter, he'd need to do it vs. actual pitching in game situations, but it all sounded a little too convenient for me at the time.
I'd sure like to see him make it, at whatever position, even if it's as the 25th guy on a roster.
The Natural, sort of
Of course, if he still couldn't throw strikes, it would be less fun.
Memphis
Believe me, he will be one of the biggest attractions for them since Anthony is going up for good. Last year was not a fun year for Memphis and I have to warn you, when a professional Memphis team doesn't win, nobody shows up. Look at our Grizzlies, suck this year and so does the attendance. It won't take long and the Redbirds will be the same way. We need a player like Ankiel to provide some pop and give this team a boost.
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 13, 2006 4:57 PM EST reply actions
Jayson Werth
Don't get me wrong, I love the So-Man and I think he is a favorite of the fans and TLR, but could Werth do a better job?
centerfield
he is
Werth has played 38 games in CF over the past three years, and to my knowledge is a pretty excellent defender.
With Werth and Gooch, Jimmy and Dunc don't have to play against lefties, which would be optimal for about one hundred reasons. Plenty of defensive replacement as well.
I don't see where JRod fits on the 25 man.
Always have Spiezio for that left-handed pinch hitter as well, if Dunc and Jimmy make the start.
Ankiel
by Pokey Joe on Dec 13, 2006 5:28 PM EST reply actions
agree
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 13, 2006 5:29 PM EST reply actions
valatan
by jojo5492 on Dec 13, 2006 5:38 PM EST reply actions
Nice!
valatan
by jojo5492 on Dec 13, 2006 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think you have totally missed the point...
Secondly, everyone has preferences in writing. I am a saber-head and love fact-based in-depth writing. Others may like more nostalgic writing or whatever. But, the differences of opinion and viewpoints are what makes this blog great and the baseball world go around as a whole.
Thirdly, it's a blog and it's free. You don't have to read it. But, it certainly takes a hell of a lot of gaul to take a shot at someone who is donating work and time for no return. Nothing like looking a gift horse in the mouth, so to speak.
So, in other words, great job alienating yourself from probably pretty much the entire board of readers. Let me be the first to say I think you are an asshole.
nice post
Ray's right, Jojo! If you don't like Val's posts, go read the p-d threads. There's a good chance they're having one of the great "Walt needs to pay more for pitching" vs. "everything's going to be just fine" debates!
wow, what a douche
Wait, guys. We are obviously responding to a Cubs troll and he got us. Go back to your Cubs blog and stop trying to spread your blue mojo here.
by orlando card on Dec 13, 2006 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
jojo, before you start
you obviously don't get the spirit of this site at all. you owe the entire community an apology.
i'm not trying to start any fights
by jojo5492 on Dec 14, 2006 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
you're entitled to your opinion
i'm giving you one more chance to apologize to the community for violating that spirit.
and don't kid yourself about your contributions to the site. you wouldn't be missed.
jojo
lboros, erik, and val, hats off to ya, keep up the good work guys
as far as jojo: like someone else said, get your own blog and try it out, lets see what you can crank out every day
by bigcardsfan5 on Dec 14, 2006 2:23 AM EST up reply actions
Valatan
Oh, jojo, I'm sure valatan didn't put much thought in here:
By Valatan
Posted on Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 03:14:33 PM EST
So, as the roster matrix below establishes, the Cardinals are sitting relatively pretty if Jocketty is honest about the $100M+ payroll that the team is going to be enjoying. The bench is relatively full, we have a servicable starting eight, and enough parts in the 'pen that something could be set up.
So Walt basically has $20M-$25M to spend on two starters, and perhaps a big bat for the lineup. The obvious thing to spend it on is one of the two frontline starters, and then one of the middling arms that will probably go for $9 per or so.
So, which one of the frontline starters do we go with? Zito or Schmidt?
Schmidt has had a bit of an inconsistent performace recently, though with a much better peak--that very high quality 2003 season indicating the best of what he can do, though the low point involved him posting a 4.40 ERA in an injury-shortened 2005.
Zito, on the other hand, has been more consistent recently--hovering around an ERA in the high threes, but dropping off significantly from his much more dominant younger years. He hasn't been Cy Young caliber since he won in 2002, but he has been a very solid starter.
So, at first face, it looks like we have a choice between two players, one with a higher recent peak, and the other with a more consistent recent past (though they are closer once you factor in the fact that Zito plays in the AL west). So, which one makes more sense to go with?
Zito will probably command something like 5/$70M, while Schmidt will be somewhere in the range of 4/$60. I took a look at the ERA+ posted by each pitcher's top four comparables at baseball reference. I averaged this for the players age 29-34 seasons for Zito, and for their age 34-38 seasons for Schmidt (I added Bruce Hurst, Schmidt's number five to this study, as Bartolo Colon, his number three comparable, just finished his age 33 season).
The first thing that I noticed was that only two of Schmidt's comparables were still in baseball at the age of thirty eight. They also were more injury prone, suffering four seasons that were clearly shortened by injury or ineffectiveness. While there was some of this with Zito's comparables, even with the larger time frame being looked at, the shortened seasons, by the large, resulted in 100 inning seasons, not 27 inning seasons.
But, interestingly, when their actual ERA+'s were computed, Zito's comparables ended up with a 102 ERA+, while Schmidt's put up a 96. That is somewhat sobering--if we sign these guys, over the course of the contract, we shouldn't expect much difference from league average. Regardless, this analysis indicates that Zito, mostly due to age, is likely the better investment than Schmidt, even with the greater risk of committing more guaranteed money to get Zito.
Second Chances are for Sallies
"i'm a consumer who views the site everyday, boosting revenue from all these ads now on the site. as a consumer, i'm pointing out what i think is a subpar product"
This lady/gentleman clearly couldn't get enough of filling up P-D forums with:
"i'm a life-long fan who views the games everyday, boosting revenue from all these over-priced, yet delicious hot dogs and overpriced, yet ice-cold, frosty Budweisers now on the outer concourse. as a super-duper fan, i'm pointing out what i think is a subpar product."
lboros maintains that this is an adult place to talk about baseball. I'm not sure if this analogy will resonate and forgive me if this comes off arrogant, but I like to think of it as "the grown-ups table" at a large family gathering. Stupid comments are tolerated, interesting observations are praised, and the language is kept as though the children are nearby. Sometimes you have to toss out some four-letter words, but only when you couldn't fault a kid for potty-mouthing same-like.
In any case, you were an asshole for criticizing Valatan's efforts to give us something to talk about, and you showed yourself to be an over- and self-indulged fuckwit for trying to justify it. You owe Valatan a sincere apology and should reconsider your expectations of what strangers owe you.
And before you poop out a retort of the, "you stink," sort, realize that I and everyone else who reads this are real people. You shouldn't have any trouble finding me if you want to make good on any physical threats you consider making on me.
The internet doesn't have to be a despicable place. Grow up, enjoy it, contribute.
------------ End Rant ------------------
The previous rant was directed at the caricature of jobo5492 I constructed from reading those most recent comments and on little sleep. He or she may end up being kind to puppies and small children.
Be excellent to each other.
good rant liam
amen brother
Creative & intelligent writing, on command
Myself, I can't come close to the quantity of high-quality data/prose these guys produce. Yeah, I have added Wagonmaker, Bi-Polar Betty, and a few other terms to the VEB lexicon, but I can't spit out creative & informative on a monthly basis, nevermind a weekly one.
So if Valatan writes up a less-than-elaborate intro in the middle of December, during finals week, that happens to echo comments made by Larry and erik, it should be understood. There's not a lot to talk about, Val's a little busy/preoccupied, the three of them are like-minded on many topics, and, most importantly, it's TOO DAMN HARD to be imaginative and/or illuminative all the time.
Werth would improve Cards vs. lefties
If Werth is healthy, I'd much rather see him either in right field (Werth has a better OBP than Encarnacion, more power, better base stealing percentage, better defense, and he's still in his prime), or as a fourth outfielder to platoon with Duncan and serve as Chris' defensive replacement in left, to spell Edmonds occasionally and serve as CF insurance, etc.
One of the reasons the Cardinals were vulnerable to lefthanded pitching last year was that their platoon players vs. lefties had little power (as in So Taguchi, a valuable pinch hitter and defensive replacement).
If Werth came to spring training and proved he was healthy, he could replace Juan Encarnacion (28 vs. 31 next year), at a much lower price. That would free up Encarnacion as part of a trade for a starting pitcher, or Juan could be traded for prospects and the reduction in salary, $355,000 vs. $5 million, would free up another 5 million dollars for a free agent acquisition. Coincidentally, both outfielders will be starting next season in recovery from wrist injuries.
Worth plays all three outfield positions, as does Encarnacion, and he can play second base, as well. Here are Werth's lifetime stats vs. Encarnacion's (listed second in each pair):
.333 vs. .316 OBP
.420 vs. 441 SLG
1 HR every 29 AB vs. 1 HR every 30 AB
1 SB every 42 AB, 85% success rate, vs. 1 SB every 35 AB, 69% success
Werth's career numbers (just over 700 AB) are actually diminished because he was recovering from a broken wrist in 2005, which hurt his performance considerably the rest of that year.
Here are some additional stats for Werth vs. Encarnacion:
OPS lifetime .753 vs. .757
OPS vs. lefties last 3 yrs .856 vs. .774
For his career Werth has grounded into a double play once every 48 AB vs. once every 42 AB for Juan.
The only offensive stat that is much better for Juan is his strikeout rate. Werth has struck out once every 3.1 AB vs. every 5.4 AB for Juan. Admittedly, that is a very important part of offensive production. But, again, Werth's poor performance in 2005 coming back from a broken wrist hurt his strikeout ratio considerably.
In his only post-season appearance, in 2004 with the Dodgers, here was Werth's performance:
2 HR in 14 AB
.412 OBP
.786 SLG
Here are the numbers for Encarnacion in the post season just passed:
0 HR in 44 AB
.260 OBP
.273 SLG
Even if Werth were signed as a fourth outfielder and platoon player with Duncan vs. lefthanders, I believe he'd be a valuable addition.
MLB.com bio:
2005
Entered Spring Training as the potential starting left fielder for the Dodgers, only to battle injuries throughout the season that limited him to 102 games ... Finished the season tied for third on the club with 22 doubles, while his two triples were good for second on the team ... Tied for the team lead with 11 stolen bases, marking the lowest team-leading total since Jim Gilliam's 18 swipes led the 1958 Dodgers ... Was hit by a pitch from Florida's A.J. Burnett during the first game of the Grapefruit League schedule, breaking a bone in his left wrist and disabling him for the first 44 games of the season ... Made 36 starts in left field, 23 in center field and 37 in right field ... Tied for second on the team with six outfield assists and did not commit an error in his 107 games played in either corner outfield position ... Had a season-high six-game hitting streak from Sept. 9-16 during which stretch he went 7-for-23 ... Tied a Dodger-season and career high with the four free passes he earned on Sept. 5 vs. San Francisco ... Underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn ligament in his wrist on Nov. 17 in a procedure performed by Dr. Norman Zemel.
thanks for the stats
Werth sounds very interesting
OT: I got a tremendous kick out of this
Uh.... could just be me but I see a substantial difference there.
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Dec 13, 2006 5:47 PM EST reply actions
Brilliant
by orlando card on Dec 13, 2006 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Matsuzaka
Just to excerpt something from Bernie
"Two starters for sure are Carpenter and Wells; La Russa expects Reyes to be No. 3 but will have to earn it... will stretch out Wainwright and Looper and Thompson in spring training to see if any can fill rotation spots.... La Russa said "too early" to make a decision on Wainwright as starter or reliever. "
La Russa made these comments on 1380 and, maybe it's just me, but how they can say that Reyes will have to "earn" his roster spot when they only have 2(!) starters penciled in right now, makes me really frustrated. There seems to be a real lack of respect for Reyes as a player and he gets yanked around alot. Do they really expect to be able to find someone as good as him on the FA market? What does it take for a pitching prospect to make it on this team in the last few years?
TLR also blew some more smoke up Cardinals fans collective @$$ today re Looper and him starting...saying Looper has 3-4 pitches which makes him a candidate to start. First off, that's news to me. Secondly, if by some fantastic whim of the baseball gods, they manage to convert him to a starter...that contract could look pretty damn good in todays market. I can't imagine this was by design but still, if it works...who cares.
Benefit of the doubt...
If this isn't the case, then it's a completely insane comment. Reyes is probably our 2nd best starting pitcher right now.
Agreed about the Bernie Button
"Jocketty says he believes Looper has as much upside as a starter as many of the mid-level guys that have been overpaid as FAs this winter... says Looper has 3-4 pitches, which gives him starter's stuff."
He also makes it sound like the only FAs the cards are after are Weaver, Pinero, and Mulder.
Thanks
It's not nearly as handy, since he doesn't post in there much—mostly notices that there's a new post at Bird Land.
Speaking of Goold, anybody know anything about Gerry Fraley who's joining the P-D staff to cover baseball? I hope it won't mean less of Goold and Strauss. If he takes over Gordon's duties, well... I googled around on him and one of the first articles I found was trashing an anti-stats column he'd written.
Bernie
I agree re: Goold. He is really good. I would like to see his role expanded.
Guess
Maybe some of the TX vebbers will have more real info.
another means
http://www.stltoday.com/forums/search.php?search_author=BernieM
http://www.stltoday.com/forums/search.php?search_author=DGoold
more bernie
Juan E had wrist surgery...cleanup not a big deal...
Cardinals making a push to re-sign Mulder; Jocketty, La Russa and Duncan all have been calling him. Not sure what Mulder wants exactly -- most money or more desirable situation.
Jocketty says team was a "distant third" in bid for Pettitte...
"Very close," according to Jocketty for Schmidt ... and surprised Batista didn't take offer...
Not looking for OFs... not a priority according to Jocketty...
Izzy doing well; can start throwing in January...
La Russa on Weaver: "I find it hard to believe he wouldn't want to come back. I keep thinking he's going to want to come back."
Jocketty indicates that they'll be making an effort with Weaver...
La Russa toying with Kennedy in lineup combos; can hit him 2nd, 6th, 7th, 8th. Undecided.
La Russa on Suppan: "The years and the money probably don't make sense for us." Asked why they wouldn't overpay for Suppan, La Russa said, "We would slightly overpay -- the question is deciding to 'way' overpay him and we're not going to do that." (Suppan looking for 4 years, at least now)...
Two starters for sure are Carpenter and Wells; La Russa expects Reyes to be No. 3 but will have to earn it... will stretch out Wainwright and Looper and Thompson in spring training to see if any can fill rotation spots.... La Russa said "too early" to make a decision on Wainwright as starter or reliever.
Not considering Narveson for the rotation right now.... Kinney and Hancock in the bullpen; no consideration for starting them.
Maybe some interest in J. Piniero.... more than I thought.
Pavano stalled...
Ohka probably not happening right now...
Jocketty says he believes Looper has as much upside as a starter as many of the mid-level guys that have been overpaid as FAs this winter... says Looper has 3-4 pitches, which gives him starter's stuff. (I share your skepticism, but please remember Kent Bottenfield: in the four years before he joined the Cardinals, he started two major-league games; he was a reliever all the other times. And he was a pretty danged good starter for the Cardinals)...
On Duncan's defense, La Russa said, "no one will work harder. On his worst day, he'll be an average outfielder."
On Bonds: La Russa wanted him only if Bonds was willing to play in STL for a low salary.
DERRICK GOOLD WILL HAVE GOOD STORY IN TOMORROW'S PAPER WITH MORE STUFF....
--B
Thanks for that
The Cards' newest recruit
by bostoncardsfan on Dec 13, 2006 7:06 PM EST reply actions
Shades of short circuit
by orlando card on Dec 13, 2006 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Ankiel is actually
by SethWestern on Dec 13, 2006 8:49 PM EST reply actions
Also, Valatan does as good a job as anybody...
by SethWestern on Dec 13, 2006 8:52 PM EST reply actions
What if the Cards played this hand?
We still have the position players that won the World Series and added Kennedy, a slight upgrade.
We made the playoffs and won the Series without any help from Mulder, Marquis or the forgettable Sidney Ponson. The '06 rotation crumbled and we were still good enough to win it all. What if we worked in spring training on finding two more starting pitchers, young guys, who are motivated to make it? All we get from free agency is old guys who have proven their mediocrity.
And when will the rest of major league baseball learn to follow the examples of the Cardinals and the Oakland A's in finding value and guys with character, who want to play. Sure, they've made a few mistakes like Junior Spivey, but about 90 million a year seems to make a contender. Spend over that and you're spending yourself into inflexibility, spend less and you have no chance.
The Cubs get Soriano, a guy who doesn't want to play the outfield. He played for the Nationals, a really bad team, and wasn't good enough to lift them out of the pits. Do you think he's good enough to lift the Cubs, who may have been worse than Washington. I saw Chicago in spring training and walked out of HoHoKam Park saying, the Cards will have no problem with this team. They were a fundamental nightmare. Will Soriano, Marquis et al reverse that trend? Not likely.
Will Carlos Lee make a better team out of Houston? They'll be competitive because they have Roy Oswalt and they always seem to pitch and compete well.
But bring em on! Let's start the season tomorrow.
Maybe we'll add a pitcher or two before January First, but I feel pretty good about our chances right now.
by Louisville Slugger on Dec 13, 2006 10:45 PM EST reply actions
First post here.
Second, I can't get over Jon Knott. I wish the cards would offer him a minor league deal. Everyone is talking about Ankiel and his power. Ankiel may have the upper hand defensively, but Knott simply mashed the ball last year at AAA Portland. He batted .170 in April and .268 in May and caught fire after that. .280/.353/.572 with an ops of .925 and 33hr overall for the year... Oh, and he hit .331 and hit 10 hr in 127 ab. vs lefties.
Seems like it could make some sense. After all...Why Knott
Sorry, I had to do it.
by dan8260 on Dec 13, 2006 11:09 PM EST reply actions
i just remembered......
Vernon Wells
imagine turning down that offer and
Pinero
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
