ohka dohka
posted by bernie at 11 last night at the Pressbox:
They're talking. Duncan wants him.
the reports of the shoulder injury have a mulder-y whiff about them: vague descriptions of stiffness, with the rotator cuff suspected to be the cause of the discomfort. that, combined with the drop in ohka's k rate, would have me concerned. on the other hand, he is the type of pitcher duncan and la russa always seem to get the most out of --- a league-avg mid-career veteran with good command and intelligence. he wasn't offered arbitration and therefore won't cost the signing team a draft pick; if it were possible to get ohka on a short deal (say, a 1-year guarantee with an option), i'd be all in favor. one report from the winter meetings claimed there are seven teams chasing ohka, but the pitcher's agent is the source of that estimate, so discount accordingly. on the other hand, if adam eaton can get a 3 yr / $24m deal, there's no reason tomo ohka shouldn't demand about the same. knowing nothing about ohka's shoulder other than what i've read on the Net in the last 10 minutes, i don't know if i'd want to stake three years' worth of payroll on the guy.
for what it's worth, ZIPS projects ohka to a 4.53 era. MLB Trade Rumors recently had a good capsule summary of ohka's career.
if the cards are going to take a run at a pitcher with injury risk, they might get a better deal out of john thomson, who was reportedly close to signing a one-year pact with seattle earlier this month. the mariners' acquisition of miguel batista likely curtails their interest in thomson, who missed half the 2005 season with a bad tendon and half of 2006 with shoulder inflammation. combine the two half-seasons thomson did pitch and you get 32 starts, 179 innings, a 6-13 record, and a 4.63 era (1.475 whip, 3.0 bb/9, 5.4 k/9). he was a very good pitcher as recently as 2004 (14-8, 3.72 era) and got off to a terrific start last season (1.87 era through may 15) before his shoulder acted up; but he pitched only 1 inning after july 18 last year, which likely explains why he's available on a short deal. given the cards' signing of kip wells and their apparent interest in carl pavano, i see no reason why they'd rule out thomson. he has thrown more innings, and pitched far more effectively, than wells over the last three seasons; he's got a strong groundball tendency and good career rates in k/bb and hr/9. if they can get him for a year with an option, why not?
john thomson's ZIPS projection: .500 record, 4.47 era.
the free-agent pool might deepen ever so slightly today, as it's the deadline for clubs to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players; anyone who is denied an offer (or non-tendered) becomes a free agent. derrick goold posted a short list of possible non-tenders recently at Bird Land; it includes one pitcher in whom the cardinals have shown prior interest, rodrigo lopez. this guy has jason marquis written all over him --- has good stuff but is a terrible pitcher. his era for the last 4 seasons combined (a 716-inning parcel) is 5.04. he does have better peripherals than marquis, and he gets groundballs and is durable . . . . .
gag. ZIPS projects lopez to go 11-15 with a 4.92 era.
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Ohka 05
ERA: 4.15
Park Adjusted ERA: 5.71
That was in RFK, a flyball pitchers park. Not sure how he would adjust to Busch 3.
He has around 50% GB rate.
scrap heap
by CARPSDAMAN on Dec 12, 2006 8:56 AM EST reply actions
Anyone else alittle worried...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 12, 2006 8:57 AM EST reply actions
YES
Suppan/Weaver
Ohka would be ok if signed to a Wells-type deal. Thomson and Pavano (ugh) would be a waste of money.
I've said this before, but I'll mention it again: Jocketty should revisit Duncan for Mike Gonzalez. There's our closer (or Izzy insurance) and we can put Wainwright in the rotation.
by Futility Infielder on Dec 12, 2006 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
don't think so
Gonzalez
by Futility Infielder on Dec 12, 2006 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think
Thats why I also like our bullpen depth. They might have long season ahead of them.
Noted Quiet Man
ditto
Tomo Ohka
Best/Worst Deals according to PECOTA
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=79&PHPSESSID=f667efa62dce34899f96244055cff406
------------
Best Deals
- Adam Kennedy, Cardinals: $17.9 million savings.
- Dave Roberts, Giants: $9.4 million savings.
- Craig Counsell, Brewers: $7.3 million savings.
- Carlos Lee, Astros: $27.2 million overspend.
- Gil Meche, Royals: $19.4 million overspend.
- Adam Eaton, Phillies: $12.8 million overspend.
by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 12, 2006 9:45 AM EST reply actions
or maybe...
by ilillillli on Dec 12, 2006 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
Other non-tenders
by itsalemmon1019 on Dec 12, 2006 10:44 AM EST reply actions
I think Herdrickson's name will come up...
I think its inevitable that Josh Fogg's name comes up this week.
by ilillillli on Dec 12, 2006 10:46 AM EST reply actions
What about Redman?
what about...
by Ryan Van Bibber on Dec 12, 2006 12:20 PM EST reply actions
LB
Comp: Carp & Pavano
If health reports on Pavano are good, maybe get the Yanks to pay half the freight (10.5MM of the 21MM left, over 2 years) and see what they want in return.
meat
Like Ohka.
However, Brewers not even offering him arbitration worries me a bit. I thought they were happy with his performance. I'll head over to Brew Crew Ball and see what they have to say about that. I'll let you know what I find out.
Brew Crew Ball
Besides Cirillo, not offered arbitration were Tomo Ohka, Dan Kolb, Rick Helling and David Bell. Unlike Cirillo, the team probably isn't looking to bring any of those guys back. As has been pointed out elsewhere, it seems a bit strange that Ohka wasn't offered, considering that, as a Type B free agent, the signing team wouldn't have to surrender anything in his case. It's only a supplemental pick, but then again, David Wright was a supplemental pick.
What about
I'd still prefer Redman or Weaver, depending on the cost.
by Toddius396 on Dec 12, 2006 1:59 PM EST reply actions
Barmes rumor
Clint Barmes' plummeting average and Jason Jennings' soaring price tag have made them attractive trade targets. The Cardinals, Rangers and Brewers have explored deals for Barmes, with Milwaukee offering center fielder Brady Clark.
Ummm, why? Wonder who we are offering?
makes even less sense
But he got on base more than Barmes last year (.317 OBP vs. .264 OBP), as he has over their respective careers 9.316 vs. .295)
And he hit for more power than Barmes last year (.760 OPS vs. .599 OPS), as he has over their respective careers (.757 vs. .677)
Not to mention the fact that with Barmes, you'd have a middle infielder playing RF
Aaron Miles
I think
by Toddius396 on Dec 12, 2006 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Brendan Ryan
Yadier Molina, as per Baseball Prospectus
Player Team EqA VORP
Yadier Molina SLN .210 -19.7
Brad Ausmus HOU .216 -17.5
Humberto Cota PIT .148 -10.4
Danny Ardoin COL .173 -8.8
Chad Moeller MIL .166 -8.4
Whoa. He didn't stack up well at all.
Roughly
BP has him as 40 fielding runs above replacement.
VORP measures how many runs above replacement a player is offensively.
So, depending on your choice of defensive assessment...Yadi either breaks even or comes out ahead in the big picture. Either way, a value at nearly the league min.
None of the systems can acct for how many guys DON'T run simply based on fear of Yadi.
Yadi!
Then at the end of the season or beginning of the playoffs Oquendo started working with him on his offense and that is what helped him in the playoffs. If that is true I hope that it continues into next season.
Molina
I'm not sure that VORP calculation really takes defense into account. Yadi was the second-best defender in major leagues, barely behind Pudge.
Also in Molina's Favor
Yadi was our
I hate his regular-season offensive performance (if you can call it that), but I think the lad has earned a pass on criticism for the time being.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 12, 2006 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
Potential Colorado Trade
Cardinals Get: Jason Jennings, Clint Barmus
Cardinals sign Shannon Stewart to play Left Field move Duncan to RF. Barmus backs up at SS/2B making the STL bench much stronger.
by Born in 82 on Dec 12, 2006 4:42 PM EST reply actions
I honestly
by Toddius396 on Dec 12, 2006 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, sounds great but Duncan
Wow
Who is going to play CF for the Stros, Burke?
Please Walt sign Weaver, Suppan, or Redman (and 2 of 3 wouldn't be bad).
Wow
by Toddius396 on Dec 12, 2006 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Holy Smokes
Colorado fans must be awfully happy today.
really bad trade by the 'stros
Jennings
by wannabeGedman on Dec 12, 2006 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
Miguel Asencio
Still a head-scratcher.
I think he plays Left
by Big Red on Dec 12, 2006 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
link????
by Born in 82 on Dec 12, 2006 4:46 PM EST reply actions
link
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6265388
worst timing for a Jennings to STL proposed trade post ever.
by Born in 82 on Dec 12, 2006 4:47 PM EST reply actions
Is anyone else
Lock into years of mediocrity with Carlos Lee wrapping up a big portion of your budget, lose 2/3 of your best starting pitchers, get fleeced on a trade..
WJ's secret game plan: sit back and watch as other NL Central teams self-destruct.
LOL
by itsalemmon1019 on Dec 12, 2006 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Or, to be fair...
by itsalemmon1019 on Dec 12, 2006 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Harang...
Buchholz is a far more promising prospect than Narveson, and though Enc is more valuable than Tavaras, he also costs a bunch more.
Clemens
by wannabeGedman on Dec 12, 2006 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
I am absolutely...
Those guys had pretty rough stats in '06, but there were definite signs of good things to come. Hirsh had a nice run of quality starts in September, and Buchholz, when he wasn't giving up 10 ers in the first, was tough to hit.
There must be more to this than we know...
absolutely right
Even if they sign Jennings, it'll cost them, what 5 years, $50 M or close to it? Considering they could have kept Hirsh for the next 5 years and it cost them a TOTAL of about $15-16 M it's a terrible trade.
The Astros have made 1 bad deal after another this offseason.
Injury prone pitchers
I really think Weaver wants to sign with us, and I hope we don't ignore him too long. His problems are by no means over, but he has a lot of potential under Duncan.
by Fred McTaggart on Dec 12, 2006 4:53 PM EST reply actions
How hard
by Toddius396 on Dec 12, 2006 5:12 PM EST reply actions
The signing of mediocrity
Reggie's Available - Let's get him back
I think given our current starting three (Jed, Enc, and Dunc) it makes a ton of sense to have a 4th OF who can play around 100 games. I am hoping Walt adds someone who can provide a bit more of an offensive boost than So as this 4th OF. Reggie would seem to be a great fit. At one year and $5 million, he seems to be a little overpriced as a 4OF, but given the savings of Dunc in left, I think the Cards could afford it and the lineup needs a strong RH bat to take some of the ABs versus tough lefties.
Haren
All I've seen wrt Haren is that other teams have asked about him. The A's are shopping Blanton and some other teams have asked about Harden and Haren. I wouldn't call that available.
Reggie Sanders
by Toddius396 on Dec 12, 2006 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
Haren?
Reggie you can keep. The guy's ready for retirement, IMHO.
Gabe Kapler
Red Sox announced the retirement of outfielder Gabe Kapler.
Kapler will take over as the manager at Single-A Greenville, Boston's affiliate in the South Atlantic League. We're not convinced Kapler is done, but if this is it, he batted .270/.331/.418 with 64 homers and 302 RBI in 2,425 at-bats over nine seasons. More was expected after he hit .322 with 28 homers and 146 at Double-A Jacksonville in 1998, but he wasn't a bad regular in his first couple of years in Texas and he likely would have done more if not for injuries.
Yeah...thanks for the warning...NOT
Kapler v Ruth
Ruth: .342/.474/.690, 714 RBI, 2217 RBI
Kapler: .270/.331/.418, 64 HR, 302 RBI
duh.....
Or you just work out on a regular basis??
I imagine none of you were ever avid weightlifters?
i don't know if this has
Pickles
Take it with a substantial serving of salt, but flip through these graphs comparing Carp to Claussen through age 27. Scary.
Putting in a claim is a no-brainer, but I'm sure someone else will land him. Such is the fate of world series champions... NL Central GM's are doing some stupid stuff today.
Lets do it
Waiver Claims
They paid the Cubs to pick Josh Hamilton from the D-Rays in the Rule 5 draft, now they paid the D-Rays to claim Bobby Livingston off waivers from the Mariners. That's an interesting way to spend your profit-sharing cash, I guess.
I can't figure out how Livingston was out of options with the Mariners, either.
Astros
I'm not convinced Jennings is really a number 2/3 pitcher but even for the sake of argument, Hirsh projects to be the same thing and he was under their control for six more years. That is an awful move. Even if Jennings performs at the same level as last year, there is a good chance Hirsh could perform just as well. This is a bad 'go-get-a-veteran" signing if I've ever seen one.
Moving Taveras is actually a plus in my opinion. He's not a very good offensive player and certainly not a good leadoff hitter which is where Garner felt the need to slot him in the lineup. Burke should provide defense that is only a slight step below Taveras and have better (although not monstrously better) offensive contributions. (Per VORP Burke was 3 times as valuable as Taveras with 150 fewer plate appearaces).
Buchholz and Asencio both seem like replacement level pitchers. could be wrong here but neither strikes me as anything special.
Clear win for Colorado. I'm not sure I'd move Hirsh for Jennings straight up...but with Taveras...not sure what Timmy Pupura was thinking...
Taveras
Kind of funny... On the Astros' website, they're spinning it as Jennings for Taveras, with a few minor pieces thrown in. Give the writer credit, that's a difficult trade to explain to the fans.
you're right
Terrible deal for the 'stros. At least Taveras's defense would have helped w/ their weakened pitching staff. Woody is, after all, a fly ball pitcher and they'll have Carlos Lee in LF. Burke's a 2B by trade. Their defensive outfield will probably cost them a couple of wins by itself.
But Hirsh for Jennings -- absolutely awful. Could you imagine if we traded Reyes for Jennings? Yuck!
Did you watch...
An Astros blogger mentioned he's got a big curve ball that's going to flatten like a pancake at altitude (dunno if that's actually true anymore). It'd be fun to get the guy and see what he could under Dunc...
Saw him pitch a couple times
He's part of the reason I like this deal so much for the Rockies. He didn't put up great numbers last year, but showed flashes of brilliance. Everyone knows the potential Hirsh has, but if Buchholz can find some consistency he could turn into a steal for the Rocks.
by Baseball addict on Dec 12, 2006 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
Mulder...
I'm convinced Mulder is really a number 2/3 pitcher but Haren projects to be the same thing and he was under their control for five more years. That is an awful move. Even if Mulder performs at the same level as last year, there is a good chance Haren could perform just as well. This is a bad 'go-get-a-veteran" signing if I've ever seen one.
Just saw the irony...though Mulder had a better pedigree than Jennings.
Non tendered guys
Lackey's the starter,
I remember
Watching him pitch is pretty fun, though. He's getting up there in age, and his walk rate spiked last year; his HR rate over the last three.
hahaha
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2695473
the trade
If the Stros want to salvage this deal at all, they should get working on an extension for Jennings right now. I like him, but he's a 3-4 starter on a good team. Still, next offseason he will command at least Adam Eaton money, and possibly Gil Meche money depending on his season. If they lock him up now they can get more than one year of his service, and won't have to pay what he could make next offseason.
by Baseball addict on Dec 12, 2006 7:35 PM EST reply actions
list of non-tenders so far
by cards4ever on Dec 12, 2006 9:03 PM EST reply actions
From Rotoworld
Jon Knott
Victor Zambrano
Joel Pineiro
Jason Bulger
Chin-Hui Tsao
Aaron Guiel
Marcus Giles
Chris Reitsma
Alexis Gomez
I think that's all of them so far. Cardinals are supposed to announce a deal with (at least) Miles sometime tonight...
Reitsma might be interesting
jon knott
by cards4ever on Dec 12, 2006 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
Knott
More non-tenders
Jayson Werth - OF (A converted catcher recovering from two wrist surgeries. Slugged .624 vs. lefties in 2004, his last healthy season and hit 2 HR against the Cards in the LDS that year. Knott or even Marrero look better.)
That link posted above isn't any good, either.
This one goes to the updated list.
Giles
Congrats to the Astros
It wasn't really a racist comment . . .
On the other hand, there was a P-Dispatch article last year on how few American blacks (as opposed to Latino) still play in the MLB. On this score, the Cardinals are just as impoverished as the 'Stros, especially if we aren't keeping Wilson (which it appears we ain't). My point is that these trends are fair game for commenting. It'd be better, however, if the comments were better substantiated, rather than off-the-cuff . . .
Aaron Miles
Good for him. Here's hoping he thrives in the utility infielder role.
Per Derrick Goold
couldn't care less
Just For Fun....
Absolutely no basis, just for fun
No.
by Red in Chicago on Dec 13, 2006 11:37 AM EST reply actions
Little slow
I was talking to a friend and fellow Cards fan about the next manager and of course we both like Jose "the secret weapon" for the job. But then he mentioned something interesting.
He said that with Mike Matheny retiring, how cool would it be if we brought him into the organization to help in the bullpen so that when LaDuncan leaves, we have Oquendo as the manager and Matheny as the pitching coach.
Personally I think that would be freakin' awesome. I like Jose's style of play and we all know that Matheny knows how to handle a pitching staff.
What ya think?
by Edmonds is baseball on Dec 13, 2006 12:14 PM EST reply actions
great idea
Fun Game
Getting ready for a final, but will check back after and see if you guys keep playing this one.
Dan Szymborksi on Marquis
Cubs - Signed Marquis
Chicago Cubs - Signed P Jason Marquis to a 3-year contract worth $20 million.
Is there an emoticon for projectile vomiting? Maybe something like :-d~o~o~o~?
Marquis was a serviceable, though overrated pitcher for two years. As with Mark Mulder, the sudden drop in strikeouts should have been a warning sign - ZiPS say it as a warning sign but only bumped Marquis' projection last year to a 4.68, miles away from the 6.02 he actually managed to put up in a pitchers' park with a good defense. Marquis should immediately report to Dr. Andrews for Tommy John Surgery. After all, though we have no indication that he actually needs the surgery, it's clear that his factory-installed ulnar collateral ligament isn't getting the job done. It's time to give tendons in his foot or hamstring a chance. I'm sure one of them would allow less than 35 home runs or walk less than 75 batters or at least strike out 100.
I can understand someone giving Marquis this contract after his 2005 season. I would've complained about it because of the strikeout issue, but it would've been defensible on some level. But giving this contract to Marquis after 2006? Cubs fans better hope Marquis is actually damaged goods because if 2006 (and honestly, 2005) represent a healthy Marquis, then there's no hope of this working out well. The Marquis de Bad can't even blame BABIP as he had a .283 this year.
The one thing Marquis had going for him is that he generally didn't leave you in suspense and if he was having a bad day, it was bad enough that you know you could go home early. Despite an average Game Score of 43, only 1 of Marquis' starts had a Game Score between 40 and 50.
Do I really need to say which way my thumb's pointing? I'd rather watch a movie entitled "A Homoerotic Evening with Don Zimmer" than be paying Marquis $7 million a year.
hahahahaha
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/cubs_signed_marquis/
No doubt...
by rockin redbird on Dec 13, 2006 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
any takers on
How much?
I think a gamble on a $50k minor league contract would be more than werth the risk on Worth, but I would bet most other teams would be all over the risk on that one also.
We already have a stockpile of outfielder options in Tags, Dunc, JRod, JEnc, Jimmy and Speizer...So, is Worth really werth it?
I feel Worth is werthy of a chance at least. In a very small sample size in 2004, he hit lefties pretty well...that can't be totally werthless.
Werth is worthy...
Just like Marrero...
Not sure about the Memphis OF this year. Gorecki, Schu, Stav or Haerther, Marti maybe...who else? Is there room for Werth?
It is
My day just isn't the same....
BTW: Daisuke and the Red Sox have reached a preliminary agreement.
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Dec 13, 2006 1:17 PM EST reply actions
SIGN JEFF WEAVER
Weaver, on the other hand, is good. His career WHIP is 1.34, he's younger than Suppan, and he's got stuff that Suppan could only dream of having. He's got stuff that a bunch of chumps who have already gotten signed and/or traded for--e.g. Jason Marquis, Miguel Batista, Jason Jennings--don't have, and never will have. His control is also good. How anyone could suggest focusing energies and finances on Suppan as opposed to Weaver is completely beyond me. IMO Weaver will be nearly as good over the life of a 3-5 year contract as Zito, and he'll come roughly $10 million a year cheaper.
DON'T LET HIM GET AWAY, YOU FOOLS! 3 years, between $8-$9 million per. Bite the bullet and get it done. Add an extra year if you need to. Jeff Weaver could be a #2 starter.
Don't try to sell me on Tomo Okha being anything better than a #3, even on his best possible day...
Enamored of Weaver?
Good stuff? Yes.
Upside potential? Yes.
Came through bigtime in post-season? Emphatic yes.
Worth a serous bid in an overheated market? Yes.
Worth 8-9 mill for 3-4 years? Not so sure.
Remember toward the end of the regular season when, in the immortal words of another poster on this site, he "looked so depressed that you expected him to take the field in a bathrobe"?
His emotional stability was then, and should be now, a concern to be addressed before offering a longterm deal.
and
by Toddius396 on Dec 13, 2006 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Weaver!
Jeff Suppan "sucks"?
I can certainly understand being underwhelmed by Suppan's "stuff" or aghast at how the money being thrown at him seems unreasonably high for a league average pitcher (many of us are), but "dude sucks"? Incorrect.
More like "dude is average". Also, you trot out his career numbers in justification of your assertion, whereas it is far more helpful to look at his last three years, all of which were with the Cardinals:
2004 2005 2006 04-06
IP: 188 194 190 191
W: 16 16 12 15
L: 9 10 7 9
H: 192 206 207 202
SO/BB: 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7
ERA: 4.17 3.57 4.12 3.95
WHIP: 1.37 1.39 1.45 1.40
The guy is a model of consistency, reliability, and predictability. He will regularly get you 200 "solid" innings every year, with a majority of "quality starts", a decent ERA, and a remarkable lack of glaring weaknesses (take a look at all of his splits and marvel at their consistency).
He also has shown an amazing facility for coming up HUGE in clutch games (did you even WATCH the NLCS?), and consistently does better in the 2nd half of the year, which is certainly a good trait for a pitcher to have seeing as how (the last time I checked), October was always in the second half of the season...
Granted, his projections for the next 3 or so years are likely to show a slight decline since he is currently 31, and whether that's worth as much as $10M per year is certainly debatable, but the dude does NOT suck.
Personally, I'd be pleased to have Suppan back, although $10M/yr seems like a tad too much. But you ALWAYS know what you're going to get with Soup, and with Schmidt and Zito no longer an option for 2007, it seems to me that an incredibly reliable innings-eater that nearly always gives your team a good chance to win day in and day out is exactly what we NEED right now...
Rumor City
http://cnnsi.com/2006/baseball/mlb/12/13/matsuzaka.signs/index.html
I'm not surprised that this deal got done, as both sides would have looked pretty bad if they screwed this up.
by Baseball addict on Dec 13, 2006 2:21 PM EST reply actions



















