Explain the Gil Meche fascination
by blove121 on Nov 7, 2006 12:52 PM EST
13 comments
Gil Meche is a seemingly popular choice to be part of the Cardinals rotation in 2007. Maybe some of you who are smarter than me can explain why.
I see a guy who is 28, with 4 full big league seasons. He has never thrown as many as 200 innings. His ERA and WHIP are unremarkable, especially considering he pitched half his games in Safeco. He was third in the AL in BB with 84 in 2006.
And the trendlines aren't encouraging. His four-year numbers for
ERA: 4.59 5.01 5.09 4.48
K/BB: 2.06 2.11 1.15 1.86
K/9: 6.28 6.98 5.21 7.52
I will admit that I've only see him pitch a couple times, but on paper this isn't electric stuff. He made $3.7M in 2006, and this is his first big FA market. What justifies his likely $5-6M salary?
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check his comparables
click here and look at schmidt's line up to age 28. click here and look at carp through age 27. here's al leiter --- check him out thru age 28.
meche has what you can't teach -- first-rate stuff. he has struggled to get it under control, as a lot of young power pitchers do. when a guy like that finally gains command, he becomes a cy young candidate.
that's why people are so mesmerized by meche: potential. he has a very high ceiling.
of course, many great young talents never do gain command of their stuff. case in point, meche's #1 comp: (ulp) jason marquis . . .
by lboros on Nov 7, 2006 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
interesting comparisons
The real question: how much will a team have to risk to reap that potential reward? The Cardinals have had mixed results with up-and-coming guys with "potential". Carpenter and Morris, to be sure, were successes. Even Jeff Suppan. Marquis, and to a lesser extent Tomko and Stephenson, not so much.
The latter three, the problem often seems to have been a lack of teachability. Marquis, Stephenson and Tomko were all smarter than Dave Duncan. It would make me very interested, if I were the Cardinals and pursuing Meche, to find out what kind of person he is.
You say that you can't teach first-rate stuff. You are right, but only to a point. Obviously, the physical ability to throw 95 mph or to break off a wicked slider are physical gifts. But so much more of pitching has to do with what goes on in the player's head, than in his shoulder and elbow. Does Meche have the head to be successful? Obviously, that's something you can't glean from the statistics.
by blove121 on Nov 7, 2006 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's scary
by jimmybaseball42 on Nov 8, 2006 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
meche
by dmb60614 on Nov 7, 2006 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Meche has
and he has a sick (not matty mo or zito sick, but still sick) curve. I believe he has a low-mid 90's fastball as well. I think if he were around Dunc, he could really blossom, Look at the guys Dunc has been given with good curves. Carp, Matty Mo. Ok...wellll...
i hope both make my point....
I think I'd rather see him than schmidt. I know id rather see Meche than schmidt.
So says, DT
by Dttl89 on Nov 7, 2006 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
sounds like a good dunc project to me
by erik on Nov 7, 2006 6:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
check this out
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player_media.jsp?player_id=219194
also here's his game log for this year:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6266/gamelog;_ylt=AtfrkFWEMNMIZIkAnwKLGtiFCLcF
16 quality starts this year, not a bad performance, i would say that is similar to what Soup did before he became a Cardinal, but Soup flat out knows how to pitch, whereas it seems like Meche relies on his stuff way too much, ala Carpenter before he came to the Cards. I think the saying applies here that once a first round pick always a first round pick, in that this guy is talented, but as we have seen with a lot of Cardinals pitcher the last few years, talent does not transfer into awesomeness (Marquis, Ankiel, Weaver-excluding playoffs), but when you combine talent (even marginal talent-Soup) with proper execution you get results, and that is precisely what LaDunc deliver. So why not take a 2 year flyer on this guy with an option for the third. It's not like we haven't taken bigger risks in the past, see DK and Carp, that have paid off.
I was actually preparing a "sign Meche" post when this one came up, so sorry for the little soap box. I think this guy has a good body build to pitch deep into a lot of games, he just needs to figure out how to pitch effectively when he doesn't have his best stuff. One thing I noticed while watching his highlights, is that he can strike guys out with his fastball, consistently up in the zone. Kinda reminded me of Oswalt, and how he can go up the ladder after pounding you down and in. He also gets guys out with his fastball inside, which is impressive to do, especially in the AL. His curve isn't as pretty as AW's or Carp's, but it is effective, in that it has tight late action, which makes it less suseptible to flattening out, he doesn't seem to like using it as a get over pitch, which is something Dunc could work with him on.
Sorry for the soap box, hope you enjoy the highlights. Loving the discussion here with people that can't get enough Cardinal Red.
World Champs!
by jimmybaseball42 on Nov 8, 2006 2:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
How many
by Toddius396 on Nov 8, 2006 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
carp was the only one
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=stl&ym=200606
just scroll down to June 13, really had a good curve that day
by jimmybaseball42 on Nov 8, 2006 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
marquis did too
Oh wait. You said 10 strikeouts in a GAME. I thought you said month. (it was his best month, too, 4-2 with a 4.54 ERA...)
by SleepyCA on Nov 8, 2006 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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