answer man
another travel day for me; back out to denver. i'll be away from the internet all day and hence can almost guarantee a number of big moves involving the cardinals will go down today . . . .
a few quick items from over the holiday. first, dave roberts is apparently ready to sign with the giants for 3 yr / $5.5m --- more than the amount i postulated a couple of weeks ago, but still an incredible bargain in this market. the giants remain bereft of position players; it's too bad they have nothing they can give jocketty in return for chris duncan, because they have openings at 1st base and left field. but they aren't going to be offering noah lowry or matt cain for dunc, and the players they probably would make available (brad hennesey?) aren't nearly enough in exchange for duncan . . .
second, david pinto has posted his defensive rankings at two more positions, shortstop and right field. eckstein rates as a solidly average shortstop with the glove; encarnacion, as an above-average right fielder. i found it interesting that pinto listed brian giles as the very worst fielder at s position in 2006; chris dial (using his zone-rating-based system) named him the nl gold-glover in right field . . .
you VEBbers did an impressive job on the quiz about trades/signings of off-seasons past. nearly every question got answered correctly somewhere in the thread. here are all the questions again, with answers:
- only two st louis free-agent signees have made the all-star team in their 1st year as a cardinal. only 1 started the game. name both players, and the one who started the game. ANS: eckstein started the game in 2005; tom henke made the team in 1995.
- during the years they played in busch stadium ii (1966-2005), only two players the cardinals acquired via trade started the all-star game in their 1st year with st louis. name them. ANS: edmonds in 2000 and richie allen in 1970. rick wise came close --- he started the all-star game in 1973, his second year as a cardinal.
- name all the pitchers the cardinals have signed during the free-agent era (1976-2006) who made 30 starts in their first year as a cardinal. ANS: there are only two: jeff suppan in 2004 and andy benes in 1996. kent mercker came close in 1998, starting 29 games; bryn smith made 25 starts in 1990. a cautionary note, insofar as the team will likely ask three free-agent pitchers to hold down rotation spots in 2007. . . .
- which free-agent signee holds the record for rbis in his first year as a cardinal? ANS: ron gant, with 82 rbi in 1996. juan encarnacion, with 79 rbi last season, is second.
- since world war II, he holds the cardinal record for wins by a newly acquired pitcher (either via trade or free agency) in his first season with the organization. ANS: john tudor, 21 wins in 1985.
- one of key members of the 1964 cardinals was acquired as a free agent --- a three-time all-star, he'd been released by his former team at the age of 30. name him. ANS: curt simmons won 115 games for the phillies in his teens and 20s but was considered washed up at the age of 31. released a month into the 1960 season, he latched on with the cardinals and stayed with them for 6+ seasons, winning 69 games.
- name the first free agent the cardinals signed during the free-agent era. ANS: perennially short of left-handed pitching help in the 1970s, the cardinals kicked off the 1980s by signing the immortal don hood. in that innocent pre-sabermetric era, nobody looked at k/bb ratio --- hood's was a god-awful 29-44 in 1979 (ie, 1.5 walks per strikeout) and 73-77 in 1978. he went 4-6 with a 3.39 era for the cards in 1980.
- name the first african-american player the cardinals ever acquired in a trade. ANS: as musial6 pointed out in the thread, the cards' first-ever african american player, tom alston, was in fact a trade acquisition --- i did not realize that. it was a minor-league transaction, which is how i missed it. the answer i had in mind --- the first player the cards acquired in a big-league transaction --- was pitcher sam jones, acquired before the 1957 season for a buncha nobodies. in the second of his two years with the cardinals (ie, 1958), jones won a strikeout title and nearly won an era title. they traded him in 1959 to san francisco for 1st baseman bill white; jones won the era title that year, led the nl in wins, and finished 2d in the cy young voting.
- what player did the cardinals have to trade for twice in a single off-season (within a span of about 6 weeks), and what were the circumstances? ANS: the day after losing the 1968 world series to the detroit tigers, the cardinals traded backup catcher johnny edwards to houston for relief pitcher dave giusti. giusti was supposed to take the place of wayne granger, traded along with bobby tolan earlier that day to cincinnati in exchange for vada pinson. but three days after the trade, the san diego padres made giusti their 2d pick (3d overall) in the expansion draft. the cardinals also lost their #5 starter, larry jaster, in that draft (the expos made him their 24th pick), and middle reliever dick hughes retired. suddenly short of innings, the cardinals got giusti back from san diego on december 3 --- gave up four players to get him, including ed spiezio (scott's dad). so, all in all, they traded five guys for giusti, who threw 100 innings in 1969 and went 3-7; they dealt him away one year later and he became one of the nl's top relief aces. (p.s.: check out the dedication at giusti's baseball-reference.com page.)
- during calendar year 1973, bing devine included a certain player in four separate trades --- acquired him, dealt him away, re-acquired him, and dealt him away again. name the player. ANS: the player is mike nagy. the cards acquired him on january 24, then lost him as a PTBNL in a trade they made a week later; apparently they hadn't meant to include him in the PTBNL pool, because in june the cards got him back for jim bibby. all this for an injured pitcher --- he'd thrown just 38 innings in 1971 and 2 in 1972, and wouldn't make his first 1973 appearance until august 8 . . . . . he made 7 starts for the cardinals down the stretch, went 0-2 with a 4.20 era, and got traded on december 9 for a player whose big-league career lasted just 3 at-bats.
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Good article....
In regards to Pinto...
As good/ better than Roberts, IMO....
I though this deal would've at least been worth considering for the Cards.
by ilillillli on Nov 27, 2006 10:19 AM EST reply actions
No credit to this(that I know of)....
Cards Get:
Andruw Jones
Jake Peavy
San Diego gets:
Marcus Giles
Anthony Reyes
and another minor league pitcher from the cardinals didnt catch the name
Atlanta gets:
Colby Rasmus
Tyler Johnson
Scott Linebrink
Juan Encarnacion
a minor leaguer for SD
sounds like a STL rumor
by TheFranchise9 on Nov 27, 2006 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
That sounds more plausible than a lot of these dea
But interesting...
Which CF would swallow their pride...
That trade is pretty bogus sounding :P
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Nov 27, 2006 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
That was my thoughts when I heard it....
by BleacherBum on Nov 27, 2006 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
That was my thoughts when I heard it....
by BleacherBum on Nov 27, 2006 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
sorry I clicked twice..
by BleacherBum on Nov 27, 2006 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
It's insane
I don't see this trade happening, but I could see something along the lines of it happening (in particular, I see StL having to give up more than is listed), as all three teams satisfy needs that they have.
A. Jones is a 10-5 player
Peavy interests me but I'd rather just hold onto Reyes and Rasmus and Johnson. Its an interesting trade but an awfully complicated one imo.
Free Agents
According to MSNBC Drew is ready to sign a 4 year deal with the Sox. At $12M/ year he may be an east coast bargain based on his production, but I have to imagine he will whither is the heat of the east coast press. My guess is either way this takes Drew to retirement. Given his history, I can't imagine him playing past his age 34 or 35 season.
Nervous
The only thing we have heard is Kennedy (unlikely IMO) and that they are talking to the same 6 middle of the road starters as everyone else, but are not the front-runner on any except Weaver...and with Boras, that too is unlikely IMO.
I like the 3 team trade idea because it at least gives us something to speculate about.
What I think
- Every FA SP that is not signed by us, is one more step closer to Adam Wainwright being a starter. Which IMHO is a good thing.
- Don't sign sh*t if you don't have to. Listen, these guys are okay pitchers, but to spend crazy money on them is ridiculous. You are not going to get the production for the price. We sign any of these guys, and I'm sure a few posts during the season will go something like this...
- Our pitching will be aquired by trade. Everybody will be pissed too because we will hurt the farm again. (EX. HarenCalero for Mulder)
- Our rotation will look like this.
b. Wainwright
c. Reyes
d. Awesome trade (J. santana*)
e. Scrap heap sh*t (trachsel*)
*=examples
THese are a few things that have been running in my head. But right now I'm going to watch the WS DVD because "I forgot" to watch it yesterday.
I would relax
Chone Figgins
interesting thought
Chone Figgins
Jose Cruz Jr., Jose Guillen, Spiezio, Wilson, Payton, or whoever, provide you with a platoon and defensive replacement for Duncan.
Neither Duncan or Edmonds ever needs to start against a lefty, and Edmonds gets plenty of rest.
How sweet would that be?
(he posted a five run positive RAR in 42 games at 2B in 2005, someone who knows more about his defense can comment there)
I was looking at his stats
:D
eh...
by ilillillli on Nov 27, 2006 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
i hear ya...
by ilillillli on Nov 27, 2006 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
Mark Mulder is our type of FA
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 27, 2006 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
$8M/yr
I will
Come on
Who would you have signed last winter, since Enc was such a horrible, enormous dud?
It is an albatross
Who would I have signed?
The Nationals sent Church down to AA.
Mench was thrown on a deal as icing.
Dellucci was had for less.
All would have been great in our plattoon driven outfield.
Juan Million Dollars
There's a big difference between league average and replacement level. Juan was much closer to league average (when considering the defensive metrics) and this has value.
BP puts him slightly under two wins( I don't know how much weight they put into defense). By Cardinals standards (2m/win), that's right around the 3.5m we payed him. Considering today's market, where marginal wins cost much more than 2m, he's a relative bargain. Considering the back-load on his contract, he's probably right around fair-price.
Does this mean there aren't better options? No, clearly John Rodriguez should have been given the chance to start, and his marginal value would have been much higher. But Juan isn't the black-hole everyone labels him. Just do your best not to think of him gathering the ball in the right-field corner, or his Lee Trevino-esque swing.
(side note: After the card torrid 17-8 April, the team struggled. Yet Juan put up a line around .290/.330/.470 after May 1 and he put up a .367/.385/.551 in June, when Pujols went down [arguably when we needed Juan's help the most]. He was a somewhat stabilizing force in a injury plagued, inconsistent line-up)
by Jonathan23 on Nov 27, 2006 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
Wow
mlbtraderumors.com...
so Wolf, Eaton, Williams are all off the table. the Cards need three guys, or two + bullpen help (start Wainwright).
Padilla, Wells, Weaver. it's starting to look like we'll need all three of them, and that's still not a very strong rotation. especially for what we'd have to pay for it.
unless Jock pulls out some amazingly awesome trade, i've got a feeling that Cardinal Nation isn't going to be very happy with this off-season.
they just need to face it
The last thing we need is bullpen help
RHP:
Looper
Kinney
Thompson
Hancock
Cavazos
Dove
Falkenborg
Sosa (if offered arbitration)
Izzy (DL)
Hawksworth
LHP:
Rincon (DL)
Flores
Johnson
Keisler
Starters(?)
Wainwright
Narveson
That's just what's sitting on our 40 man roster that probably won't be a starter. I really don't think the team is short on relievers and that many of these guys could be eased into bullpen roles in low pressure situations. The core group (Looper, Kinney, Thompson, Hancock, Flores, Johnson) is all there. They just need to decide on a closer and fill in some low pressure spots.
i don't disagree...
i'm not saying there's a viable option out there. i certainly wouldn't want the Cards paying the kind of money that Baez got for someone of his value. but what i am saying is that the decision to move Wainwright to the rotation is made much harder without an obvious replacement for him.
let's not forget that the prior to the playoffs, the Cards' bullpen in '06 was a weakness... not a strength.
Before looking at second-tier pitchers
Either a big-time pitcher, free agent or trade.
Or an "impact" bat, playing either second or OF.
Based upon the matrix numbers from before, they have roughly $35-40 million to play with. Depending upon Wainwright's status, that money has to acquire three to four players.
I can't see them paying up for a slugger AND a starter, but I suspect they know they need an upgrade at one of two positions and in the rotation.
I have to agree
trade...
Jock will just have to sign some guys. it almost doesn't even matter what they cost. at a certain point, if you want to compete, you have to get players, even if you are over-paying. and we've got the money to do it. we primarily need 4 players: 3 SP, 1 2B. and we've got 35 million to get them. that's an average of 9 million per player, which should be plenty.
then we spend a few million getting a platoon partner for Dunc and we're pretty set. the players are available, and the money is there. there won't be any sweetheart deals in this market, so just bite the bullet and get some guys... before they're all gone.
as azruavatar said
everybody...
plus, i wouldn't expect Jock to pull a Brock-for-Broglio deal. for one thing, that deal was (obviously) a complete anamoly; those deals aren't routine. in addition, this is the free agent era... teams don't give up on young talent so easily. lastly, teams are much better at evaluating talent now that they were then. can you name a similarly lop-sided trade in the past 5-10 years?
didn't think so.
i really don't see the sort of impact deal that we fans would like to see. there will be something relatively minor, and that's probably it.
Lopsided deal of young talent?
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 28, 2006 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
you mean Victor Zambrano
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Nov 28, 2006 8:14 AM EST up reply actions
worst deal in years
none of those guys...
the Giants were making a run at the title, and they got an opportunity in 2002. Pierzynski was a fairly big part of that. the Twins haven't even made it to the ALCS in that time.
it certainly wasn't a good trade for the Giants, but i don't think it's in the same class as the Brock/Broglio swap. the Cardinals won a World Series with Brock, and made it to two other game 7s, in large part because of his contributions. he also broke all sorts of records.
I haven't heard anyone mention
by Big Red on Nov 27, 2006 6:37 PM EST reply actions
Pettite won't come to StL...
Petitte would be great!!!
by Cylix3341 on Nov 27, 2006 6:44 PM EST reply actions
Petitte is a dream
Rumor on mlbtraderumors.com
If Manny is moved to the Cubs, Walt better pull a rabbit out of that hat of his.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 28, 2006 12:27 AM EST reply actions
how many outfielders?
soriano, jones, ramirez, they're still talking to lugo...murton...sheesh.
by ilillillli on Nov 28, 2006 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
i would assume...
also, looks like the BoSox are closest to signing Lugo, and have him play in the IF.
re: Pinto and PMR
Grrr
per mlbtraderumor.com...
think it's enough? Sackmann doesn't. neither do i. but if the BoSox can sign both Lugo and Drew, that might not matter; Manny would be (sort of) expendable, and they'd get at least some value and insurance out of the deal.
if this happens... well, i don't want to think about it.
Yeah
If they got a full season out of Prior, that team would project to be tops in the NL.
Then agan...
by Big Red on Nov 28, 2006 8:37 AM EST up reply actions
Besides...
by Big Red on Nov 28, 2006 8:37 AM EST up reply actions
You know why I am not scared
No one gets on base in front of all these sluggers. They need to get OBP guys more than anything. Plus, they are the Cubs.
That doesn't seem like enough stuff for Manny. His contract has just become more reasonable. Plus, that just seems like throwing everything in a Trash bag and offering it up.
by DimitroffVodka on Nov 28, 2006 8:40 AM EST up reply actions
They'll get on base for each other
A. Ramirez - .352
A. Soriano - .351
D. Lee - .368
M. Ramriez - .439
All of them at or above league average OBP, and aside from Manny not having Ortiz to protect him, each of them batting in a significantly better lineup means that each of them gets better pitches to hit. If that lineup doesn't scare you, you're crazy



















