Off-season realistic expectations

by jomfa on Nov 21, 2006 9:51 AM EST Comment 11 comments

Jocketty appears to be in a decent position for someone with so many needs in the rotation and outfield. I say this because the bullpen is overloaded and this could be a source from which to make some decent deals. With relievers getting insane contracts, making a trade for some of that talent could bring in the necessary talent where we have needs.

Starting Rotation:
Chris Carpenter
Anthony Reyes
Jeff Weaver (believe he resigns)
Miguel Batista (splash free-agent signing)
J. Jennings (possible trade with CO from bullpen)
...possibly Narveson or even Woody Williams

Bullpen:
Ricardo Rincon (unless he's traded, but after injury, probably not)
Randy Flores
Tyler Johnson (either he or Flores will be traded)
Josh Hancock
Izzy
Braden Looper
Brad Thompson
Adam Wainwright
...but loaded with other talent which could make some of the above expendable - Kinney, Keisler and even Cate could step in

Starting Lineup:
C - Yadi Molina
1B - Albert Pujols
2B - Adam Kennedy (seems like destiny)
3B - Scott Rolen
SS - David Eckstein
LF - Chris Duncan (but seems like he will either be traded or platoon/reserve)
CF - Jim Edmonds
RF - Juan Encarnacion (could be traded for loss deemed acceptable)
...the questions are, will Dave Roberts be available once we get done finding the starting pitching we want first? Same with David Dellucci. Is Luis Gonzalez a foregone conclusion?

Bench:
Aaron Miles
Scott Spiezio
John Rodriguez
Skip Schumaker
A. Marti??? ...what about Rick Ankiel. This guy continues to stick around. Seems like he has to be penciled in every Spring whether we like it or not.

The bullpen is heavy and could help us with trading. Encarnacion's contract doesn't look as difficult to unload in trade, especially if combined with some bullpen player, when viewing the contracts being awarded now. Especially the existence of so many left-handed relievers, there will be teams interested and willing to give a bit more to fill a dire need.

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I Dont Know

Adam Kennedy might be asking for too much but i do agree with you our bullpen is loaded and we have some good guys to trade hopefully we can trade duncan for some starting pitching and sign Carlos Lee!!

by Calhoun on Nov 21, 2006 10:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't think...

...Carlos Lee is in our plans. The money guys like that are getting make them way out of our range when there's going to be plenty of 'overpaying' for starting pitching. If Adam Kennedy is asking too much, I know for a fact Carlos Lee is asking too much. Paying Kennedy a tad over market value has a different impact to the budget and ability to afford other players than paying a tad over market value for Lee.

by jomfa on Nov 21, 2006 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this is definitely realistic

and I don't think too many of us would really be unhappy with this roster on opening day.

Having said that, we're rabid fans looking for a hot stove victory to top off our World Series championship, so give us Carlos Lee and Jason Schmidt!

by mtalken on Nov 21, 2006 5:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kennedy

May be just me, but I'm not at all interested in locking any of these craptastic 2B FA's into long-term deals. I'd much rather pick up a 1-year stopgap and see how Brendan Ryan develops at AAA next year.

It would be expensive, but I'm thinking a trade for Marcus Giles would be ideal. The Padres look likely to sign Loretta, so we'd be the primary trade partners for Giles and the Braves need to dump his salary. His defense is solid and he'd make an ideal #2 hitter for us. (Look at his career splits batting #1 vs. #2 and judge whether his 2006 batting line represents decline or misuse.) On top of that, barring a terrible 2007 season, he'll be a Type-A FA next season, so we can keep our farm system well stocked.

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of overpaying at 2nd for one year to buy time to have Ryan playing there on the cheap for the next three afterwards...

by liam on Nov 21, 2006 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ryan

Not a bad idea - if the 2B out there sign quickly and we're still looking for pitchers, I would foresee something similar to what you suggest. A trade for a player, like Giles, where we have plans to keep them for 1 year. Perhaps it would take time though, waiting until Spring Training and seeing how he does, then pulling the trigger after verifying Ryan has talent, but is 1 year away.

by jomfa on Nov 22, 2006 7:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jennings

Would be the best trade since Rolen or Edmonds. He is an ace and would be great behind Carp. Question is, would they ask for? If it is Duncan and some relief, could Duncan hit 50 bombs in Coors as a home field?...mmmmm fantasy baseball question...

by riescher on Nov 21, 2006 7:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

couple of things

1) Ducan & Coors. Due to the humidor that waterlogs the baseballs Coors has become an effectively neutral baseball park. The days of thin air and inflated stats is probably over but it's hard to say with certainty until there is a few more years of data.

2)Jennings an ace. Nope. Not even close. Jennings is a servicable midrotation guy but not a whole lot more than that. He had a very good year next year but that's really about the max you can expect from him - a sub 4 ERA, 200-ish IP and 125 odd strikouts.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 21, 2006 9:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jennings

Jennings an ace - nope... I agree, however - Suppan was suggested as being the exact same type of pitcher when he was signed. I'd take a "Suppan look-a-like" at the price tag Jennings would come with. Being dependable (after Mulder) has to have some value to a budget conscious team.

That said, I could see Colorado trying a trade with the Cardinals one more time to aquire left-handed relief they're in dire need of. What they don't need are corner outfielders or a 1B, so don't expect to see Duncan on their wish list.

by jomfa on Nov 22, 2006 7:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bench

Id love to get either Jose Cruz or Craig Wilson for our bench and who can be platoon. Cruz is a greatd efensiveoutfielderand kills lefties, Wilson has some hreat power.

by gopher100 on Nov 21, 2006 8:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Restocking the farm

Craig Wilson is on the 'no compensation' list, so if the team were interested, signing him should take place fairly soon. However, it sure seems like the team wants to wait until guys like Gonzalez, Dellucci and Roberts clear and what terms it will take to get them before hitting up a Craig Wilson. The aforementioned are all Type A players, so the Cardinals are pretty much guaranteed to wait for clearance to make any moves. The stove will simmer for outfielders.

For infielders - sure seems as if we're daring other teams to go after Belliard early since he's a type A. This will be a last minute deal before he clears the deadline. Kennedy could be the plan B they're hoping for under the assumption someone takes Belliard early and garners some extra picks. However, a backup catcher is something they should consider early. Problem is, none of the free agents are worth a darn. Almost appears as though getting minor leaguer, Michel Hernandez to join the majors and learn under Yadi would be the better route to take.

Suppan is a Type A, so I know the team is letting him field some offers and daring other teams to provide some picks. Depending on the money, and everyone else is getting insane dollars, he might still be worth offering arbitration just to extend the period for capitalizing on the Rule. Worst case scenario, we get a known quantity you can't be disappointed in. No comp pitchers include Eaton, Kip Wells and Wolf and it appears Eaton is the one the Cardinals may want early.

Bottom line is very little activity is going to happen between now and mid-December. It's going to be a long, cold Winter.

by jomfa on Nov 22, 2006 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs