What to make of Chris Duncan?

by erik on Nov 12, 2006 1:03 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

How many of us saw the emergence of Chris Duncan this season? With the constant rotation of #2 hitters in the lineup which included the likes of Juan Encarnacion, So Taguchi and John Rodriguez, Chris Duncan was a stabilizing force hitting in front of Pujols upon his call up in July, and played well enough to be considered a viable NL ROY candidate. If this year didn't yield such a bumper crop of great young talent, Duncan may have been able to win the ROY without a contest. Some have gone so far as to make comparisons with last season's ROY and current MVP candidate Ryan Howard. Sounds absurd, but when you consider the numbers they are not that far off from one another.

Duncan '06: 90 games, 280 AB, 22 HR, 43 RBI, .293/.363/.589 Age 25
Howard '05: 88 games, 312 AB, 22 HR, 63 RBI, .288/.356/.567 Age 25.

Dunc was arguably every bit as good at the plate as the previous Rookie of the Year. But while scouts and statheads alike are not completely suprised at Ryan Howard, they are suprised with Chris Duncan. Howard has long been regarded as a B+/A- prospect, while Dunc hovered around C/C- grade his entire minor league career. Should Duncan be considered for real? Here's a quick comparison of Howard and Duncan peripherals-

Career Minor league:

Duncan: ISO: .148, K%: 25%, BB%: 10%, BB/K: .45 1 HR in every 34 AB.
Howard ISO .248, K% 31.5% , BB% 12%, BB/K .42, 1 HR in every 17 AB.

Career MLB:

Duncan ISO .300, K% 25%, BB% 9.3%, BB/K .40, 1 HR in every 12.6 AB.
Howard ISO .320, K% 31%, BB% 13%, BB/K .48, 1 HR in every 11.3 AB.

Ok, so I'm sure most of us know Dunc ain't turning into Ryan Howard anytime soon, but it's interesting that both players have carried over the same peripherals as far as plate discipline is concerned, and both saw boosts in their power since getting called up. That's not unusual to see that sort increase in power production in players their age and size, but Duncan's power took an alarming and unusual jump forward. Howard had hit 46 HR's between AA and AAA in '04, Dunc hit more homeruns in half a season in the Show then he ever did in a full minor league season.

Okay, so for the few crazies that hoped Dunc would start smashing 50+ HR's next season towards an MVP bid, keep dreaming. So who does Dunc more closely compare with? John Sickels recently did a prospect retro on Dunc and pointed out the more accurate comparison is possibly Brian Daubach. You know, the Brian Daubach who had a few decent years in Boston and is more recently known by Cardinal fans as a 34 year old Memphis Redbird.

Daubach's career minor league peripherals:

ISO .183, K% 24%, BB% 12.8%, BB/K .60, 1 HR every 27 AB.

That's pretty close to Dunc. And their "break-through" major league debuts?

Chris Duncan, 2006: 280 at-bats, 22 homers, .293/.363/.589, 30 walks, 69 strikeouts
Brian Daubach, 1999: 381 at-bats, 21 homers, .294/.360/.562, 36 walks, 92 strikeouts

The difference is Daubach was 27 then, Dunc was 25, so there's more room for growth. I sure hope he continues to mature, as Daubach posted just 3 seasons of above league average OPS and has been toiling in the minors ever since. But nothing I've seen suggests that Dunc is a .296 hitter. His peripherals suggest he'll hit around league average or worse. His plate discipline is a bit above average, and while his power has always been one of his better tools, it's hard to imagine he's gonna hit 35-40 HRs a year considering his minor league track record.

With youth still on his side, who knows what he can become? It's entirely possible he can be a solid everyday regular or a little better then that. But with all this in mind, I don't see a huge problem with the Cards' joining in the Alfonso Soriano sweepstakes, or kicking tires on the Carlos Lees of the world. Both those players have their red flags attached to them, and I'm not saying the Cards should sign either of them. But I'm just not sold yet that Chris Duncan is the everyday answer in left field. It's more of a "we'll see, I hope so" proposition for now. So I don't see any problems with the Cardinals continuing to seek that "big bat" we read Jocketty talking about. It'll have to be a left fielder or a 2nd baseman. And unless you consider Ray Durham a big bat, it will be an outfielder, and I hope they don't consider that to be the currently rumored Luis Gonzalez. I have no problem with the team giving Gonzo an inexpensive 1 year deal, LaRussa is great at spotting role players. But Gonzo's big bat days are over.

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Comments

A big bat

How about trying to work a deal with Philly, they need to shed payroll for the Soriano sweepstakes, and Burrell could be a good fit for us. Besides his RISP, his numbers were good last year, even though he had some injuries in the second half. The question: do we have something to deal, and will Philly eat enough of his contract to make it workable.

go crazy folks..........

by wwbd on Nov 12, 2006 1:14 AM EST reply actions

I actually like the idea of getting Burrell

if the Phillies are just looking for a salary dump with fringe prospects in return, I think we should go for it. They will have to eat some of the contract but it's another short term deal (the kind of which I like with aging players).

I also don't buy the cancer thing. Philly ran Scott Rolen out of town as well. And if you are playing with a club that publicly says they are looking to move you...well I wouldn't feel very wanted there. I'm not sure what Philly would look for in return but if it's anything not named Reyes, Rasmus or Wainwright, i'd be ok with the trade.

re RISP - look at his 2005 RISP stats. He batted like .300+ that year. It's just a fluxuation. He's a good hitter but I'm not sure his power numbers are enough for the 4/5 slot. It seems like we have several guys who could hit 20-ish homers but outside of AP we don't have any serious 30+ threats.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 12, 2006 1:53 AM EST up reply actions

a la Scott Rolen - JD Drew

If Burrell were to come over here, and he were to have a good attitude, and he were to realize his potential while in a Cardinals uniform, and Philly were to pay some of his salary, and Soriano were to begin a decline phase of his career -- well, those Phils fans would burn that city to the ground.

Hopefully we pick up Randy Wolf and he wins 17 games next year while we're at it.

Those crazy bastards would burn that city to the ground and crucify Gillick.

Poor Philadelphia sports fans, BWAAAAAHAHAHAH!

by plh903 on Nov 12, 2006 9:24 AM EST up reply actions

Burrell

On a more serious note, given that they are about to spend all there money in an ill-advised move for a big stick.

I can't see them moving Burrell's annual .890 OPS for anything less than a ML ready SP. Even if it is a salary dump.

However, I could see them putting him on right and moving Aaron Rowand, with Victorino in CF. (I am pretty sure I read this from a credible journalist - doesn't exist, right?)

Aaron Rowand is a guy that could be a real good fit with the Birds next year, given their obvious coughcough "platoon needs."

by plh903 on Nov 12, 2006 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

Philly is a tough crowd...

the fans there may be as brutal as any in baseball. From what I've read, Burrell is not a cancer, but the fans are taking out their frustration on whomever is a good target, ie. the guy with the big contract. His numbers in our line-up would definetely put some more bite into it. I really think it puts Soriano/Lee style numbers on the team, for only two years, not 5+ years at 15mill per year. I've read that Philly may be inclined to dump for more salary room.

go crazy folks..........

by wwbd on Nov 12, 2006 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

Dunc

Erik-nice article. I appreciate the stats and all.

One thing I don't believe you mentioned completely was the 'reverse' protecting of Pujols in the lineup i.e. sitting on fastballs as a fastball hitter. I love Dunc, who doesn't like the 8 foot tall wigger that can thunderstrike a ball 8502820 feet?

Seriously, we should look at his stats when he was batting in front of Poo vs. when he wasn't in the greatest place to hit in baseball.

"Seeing a great catch is like watching girls walk by, the last one you see is always the prettiest." Bob Gibson

by SchwabbaMoose on Nov 12, 2006 1:17 AM EST reply actions

i assume

you mean that chris duncan makes and sells wigs, right?

Rabid Redbird

by gthedamned on Nov 12, 2006 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah I caught that too

WTF?

by Zubin on Nov 12, 2006 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

patty b

Burrell? Not funny.

Currently Steve Walsh is in the fight of his life with a certain Pat Burrell.

P.S.

Cancer/Pat Burrell, same difference

"Seeing a great catch is like watching girls walk by, the last one you see is always the prettiest." Bob Gibson

by SchwabbaMoose on Nov 12, 2006 1:19 AM EST reply actions

Perhaps a simpler explanation may be

Young Dunc discovered some kind of performance enhanceners?

by Zubin on Nov 12, 2006 1:29 AM EST reply actions

it has to be the facial hair

As soon as he shaves, he's done for.

2006 stl cardinals - all of the glory, none of the goat hair.

by SleepyCA on Nov 12, 2006 1:37 AM EST up reply actions

it's the

chew

"Go Crazy, Folks! Go Crazy!"

by erik on Nov 12, 2006 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

wow.....you're going to get beat up over that

i think if you're a 25 yo rookie in the year of the greatest scrutiny of performance enhancing drugs in history, and your dad's a prominent coach on the team- you'd probably think twice.

It happened on a Sunday afternoon, August 22, 1982.

by Glenn Brummer stole home on Nov 12, 2006 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

I think thats a

completely legit concern now-a-days.

by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Nov 12, 2006 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

Zubin...dude..

Things I try to avoid:

Being boring
"Women" with big hands and Adam's Apples
Woven Belts
Brown Shoes with a Black Belt
Exgirlfriends
Crack cocain
MAKING ALLEGATIONS WITHOUT PROOF/EVIDENCE/PLAUSIBLE ARGUMENT. (Sorry for the caps but there's no BOLD key here)

Seriously, Salem witch trials all over again.

"Seeing a great catch is like watching girls walk by, the last one you see is always the prettiest." Bob Gibson

by SchwabbaMoose on Nov 12, 2006 1:42 AM EST reply actions

haha

How about an 'e' on 'crack cocaine' there. I guess that I haven't avoided all of those things on my list at all.

"Seeing a great catch is like watching girls walk by, the last one you see is always the prettiest." Bob Gibson

by SchwabbaMoose on Nov 12, 2006 1:45 AM EST up reply actions

I didn't mean to single out

Young Dunc. To me a lot of baseball players are suspect. Besides that I am not accusing him of anything (or amking any allegations), I am throwing it out as a possibility.

by Zubin on Nov 12, 2006 2:51 AM EST up reply actions

And to me...

it seems like all baseball players that weigh over 200 pounds and improve at all are under suspicion.

O well.

I wasn't pissed..honest.

"Seeing a great catch is like watching girls walk by, the last one you see is always the prettiest." Bob Gibson

by SchwabbaMoose on Nov 12, 2006 4:28 AM EST up reply actions

it's irresponsible

and I don't think it should be done unless you have something more concrete than, "boy, he sure found his power stroke this year." Duncan always projected as a power hitter, but hadn't found it yet. This is the same thing that got people accusing Albert of doing steroids when the whole Jason Grimsley thing hit. It's irresponsible. Gossipping and rumor-mongering when it comes to steroid allegations or any other drug allegations w/o the slightest bit of proof is wholly irresponsible.

by chuckb on Nov 12, 2006 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

I understand it is a touchy subject,

and I definately am not accusing anyone, but I will throw it out as a possibility. In any case it seems likely to me, somehow the kid has gotten stronger. Performance enhancers are a very real possibility today.

by Zubin on Nov 12, 2006 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

have you seen

That "chris duncan with his shirt off" picture at fyc? No way in the world is someone that flabby getting any benefit from steroids.

http://thefyc.blogspot.com/

He might have taken them, but he isn't physically built at all, the way you would expect. He's just a tall scrawny type with long arms who has found a way to make better contact than expected.

2006 stl cardinals - all of the glory, none of the goat hair.

by SleepyCA on Nov 12, 2006 8:48 PM EST up reply actions

Do you

always find the gray cloud around the silver lining, too, Zubin?

by cardsrul on Nov 12, 2006 10:41 PM EST up reply actions

Actually I see the silver lining

Young Dunc will improve to league average on defense, hit 33 homeruns and it will cost Walt less than $1M

by Zubin on Nov 13, 2006 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

Ugh.

Two 30-year-old free agent outfielders. One is looking for a circus contract, six or seven years and $12-$15M per. The other will probably get three or four years at a similar price.

Alfie's career numbers: .280 .325 .510
Mystery Player's career numbers: .286 .393 .512

Soriano's a great baserunner, and he's been healthier, but I'll take the shorter contract and the seventy points of OBP, thanks.

by DanUpBaby on Nov 12, 2006 5:05 AM EST reply actions

the next mickey mantle

jd drew - he has the talent to be a premier player, but never quite puts it together

soriano has some advantages. he doesn't seem injury prone, and he could possibly play second base.

drew draws more walks and is considered a much better outfielder than soriano.

i'd be pretty happy, but surprised, if the cards sign either of them

by mattlo on Nov 12, 2006 7:15 AM EST up reply actions

LF, 2B, SP

I WOULD NORMALLY LIKE BURRELL, BUT GIVEN HIS GLOVE, I'D JUST AS SOON GIVE 550 ABS TO DUNCAN!!!

ALSO, I WAS RELIEVED THAT ARTICLE FINALLY CONFIRMED THE REDBIRD PARTY LINE IS WAINWRIGHT AS CLOSER FOR '07...

I'D LOVE TO SEE:

CARPENTER
LILLY/WOLF
MECHE/EATON/SOUP/WEAVER
BATISTA/OHKA/ARMAS/THOMSON/WOODY
REYES

AS A ROTATION... DEPENDING ON MONEY, I'LL BE HAPPY WITH ANY ONE OF THOSE PITCHERS IN THOSE ROLES!!!

I'D ALSO LIKE TO SEE US SPEND MONEY ON CHAD BRADFORD - HE AND LOOPER WOULD KEEP RH AT AN OBP UNDER .25, ALL WE NEED TO DO IS FIND A COUPLE OF LEFTY KILLERS AND WE'RE SET!!!

I WAS DISAPPOINTED THAT GREG ZAUN WANTS A STARTING JOB AND 3/$9 - I THOUGHT HE'D HAVE BEEN A PERFECT BACK UP FOR YADDLES!!! AS IT SITS, I'M PREPARED FOR THE RETURN OF EINAR...

by TOLAXOR on Nov 12, 2006 9:08 AM EST reply actions

easy there, elaine benes

Pretty excited about all that, eh?

GREGG ZAUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by plh903 on Nov 12, 2006 9:33 AM EST up reply actions

although true

Gonzo's HR numbers have gone down, he hammered out 50 doubles last year

I'm a Jenius!

by gibbons on Nov 12, 2006 9:24 AM EST reply actions

Duncan/Lee/Soriano

I'd prefer the Cards do all they can to develop Duncan to the best of his ability over the next two seasons rather than pay pay gobs of money for a Carlos Lee. Yet it seems Duncan is made for the American League. Soriano I feel is a classic National League player and would love to see him in St. Louis, but can't imagine the Cardinals paying the kind of salary it would take to land him.

Also, there should be a rule against posting in all caps here. I need an aspirin after seeing that thing (I do not dare read it).

Baily

by Baily on Nov 12, 2006 9:30 AM EST reply actions

Get to know, and to love..

...TOLAXOR!!!!!!

Johnny Cash always wore black, and TOLAXOR always posts caps.

by salvomania on Nov 12, 2006 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

ALL CAPS

It's hard to take somebody seriously who won't stop screaming at you. Some guy wearing an aviator helmet and filthy overalls might be a fantastic lawyer, but I'll never know...

by Archaeopteryx on Nov 12, 2006 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Evident the wash!

by Jhusk on Nov 12, 2006 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

did someone say

Jimmy Edwards?

by effin fisk on Nov 12, 2006 11:01 PM EST up reply actions

Duncan's line next year

Not to prematurely steal any of lb's thunder re: community-wide stat projections, but thought the James projection for Duncan 07 was...intriguing:

273/351/511 with 33/90/90 and 66BB vs. 135K

This would be assuming full-time left field "duties"-554 AB.

Regrettably, James provides no projection data for errors, pulled hair, or beer cans thrown at television...

by farley503 on Nov 12, 2006 9:57 AM EST reply actions

regrettably he doesn't

but thanks for posting that. i didn't see that the Handbook was out already. I am now going to run to the nearest Barnes and Nobles and sit there until they open.

"Go Crazy, Folks! Go Crazy!"

by erik on Nov 12, 2006 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

Man, that's not a bad projection

and at min salary, too.

by sdrone on Nov 12, 2006 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

an .850 OPS

for minimum? Shoot, sign me up for that!

I think that's a little optomistic in the power column but still I like.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 12, 2006 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

There's a lot more...

Daubachs out there than Howards... The obvious answer is to move Dunc for a starting pitcher and sign Gonzo. Not terribly excited about Gonzo, but in 3 years the Soriano and Lee contracts will be suffocating some team. Hope it's not the Cardinals!

Also, Erik, the Sickels link goes to Daubach's page...

by guayzimi on Nov 12, 2006 10:32 AM EST reply actions

thanks guayzimi

fixed

"Go Crazy, Folks! Go Crazy!"

by erik on Nov 12, 2006 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

Powers Levels

I understand his power levels don't match up very well with his minor league numbers. But a lot of players really start to develop power numbers around the age of 25. One player that immeditely jumps into my mind is Jim Thome.

Jim Thome always had a good average but never showed good power numbers in the minors. He averaged a home run every 28 Ab's in the minors. Than win he hit 25 he averaged a hr every 18 abs in his first full season in the majors. Than at 26 he took off hitting 13.2 hr per ab.

I think his power is for real. Its not like his home runs were barely going over the wall. Duncan was crushing those balls.

Its his ability to lay off the outside breaking ball/slider that worries me. He can't lay off it yet. So I imagine his avg to drop but if he can keep a good OBP and great slugging than he will be the next Adam Dunn.

As much as I like Gonzo as a person his arm is pathetic now. He needs to be a DH somewhere.

by DimitroffVodka on Nov 12, 2006 10:56 AM EST reply actions

Big power jumps are not rare...

at Duncan's age. That said, half-a-season isn't enough of a resume to judge where Duncan will go. He's a real wild card. I'd judge that there is the same probability he turns into a poor-man's Adam Dunn about equal to that in which he tanks next season (and thus becomes a Brian D. type player). He's not going to lead the league in homeruns next season. But it is entirely possible that this surge in power is for real (people forget that Duncan was expected to have this kind of power...that's why he was drafted...his minor league numbers up until the last year or so had been quite disappointing). As such the Cards should give him a chance next year. Let's see if he can establish his value. D.GOOCH

by GOOCH24 on Nov 12, 2006 11:53 AM EST reply actions

Laying off the oustide pitch...

One reason I'm bullish on Duncan is that I think he was doing a pretty good job of laying off the outside pitch and the breaking stuff for a young guy. He was seeing alot of pitches every at bat. Note, Juan E. is much worse at laying off the outside pitch...and Juan E. hit .280 this season. D.GOOCH

by GOOCH24 on Nov 12, 2006 11:56 AM EST reply actions

Re: Soriano

Does anyone really think that the team would pay Soriano(or anyone for that matter) more than what they're paying Albert?

by cardsrul on Nov 12, 2006 12:45 PM EST reply actions

No way.

by Zubin on Nov 12, 2006 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

Duncan will hit enough

to justify being in the lineup most days. It would be good to sit him vs. tough lefties and, considering he'll make close to the minimum, he'll hit somewhere in the neighborhood of what we'll get from Encarnacion, at least. A good offensive value.

I do, however, think he's better in the 6 hole than the 2 hole and I'm genuinely concerned about his defense. I think he'll get better and if he can get to league average, I'll be OK w/ that. But if he plays defense next year the way he did in the playoffs, he's a liability and he'd have to be great offensively to justify it.

by chuckb on Nov 12, 2006 1:29 PM EST reply actions

I am mystified

as to why Duncan says he's more comfortable in right field. Isn't almost all of his experience in the outfield in left field?

He's not a great outfielder, but I seriously think part of his problem was that he was in right and not left field.

Of course, as a manager, when your choice for right field is between Wilson and Duncan.... sigh.

by sdrone on Nov 12, 2006 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

Cause

He said right field because he was used to playing first base. So that is the view he is used to seeing the ball come off the bat.

People need to remember this is his first year playing OF before.

by DimitroffVodka on Nov 12, 2006 2:06 PM EST up reply actions

I'd still perfer him in left.

He is a smart kid, he'll learn quick enough.

by Zubin on Nov 12, 2006 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Doesn't BP...

...say that the second best comp to Duncan is D. Lee?

And I thought that they also said earlier that he was a comp of Adam Dunn. I can see the Dunn comp more than Lee.

I could see:
.249/.350/.525 and really would that be that bad?

by Harknights on Nov 12, 2006 1:57 PM EST reply actions

i hope you are right

but with his current walk rate staying at a solid 10%, that OBP ain't happening. Not that he can't still develop an eye a bit, but he ain't gonna start taking 100 walks a season like Dunn. Nor could i see a .250 ISO. I see more of a .265/.330/.465ish...

"Go Crazy, Folks! Go Crazy!"

by erik on Nov 12, 2006 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

What I like is...

...that he started to walk more and more as the season went on. Now that could be a function of hitting well and so they were trying to get him out with junk and he didn't bite...but doesn't that apply to everyone.

This reminds me of Soapdish with the great line.

"This is one of the toughest decisions of my career and that's why I get paid $1.2M to make these kinds of decisions."

That applies to Walt. If he goes with Duncan and he turns into Phil Plantier that could ruin the team. If he trades him and he turns into Ryan Howard it will be hard to live that down.

Good luck...because we will only remember if it doesn't work out.

by Harknights on Nov 12, 2006 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

I will take some small

encouragement from the fact that his 2006 playoff walk rate was .15. Sample size, yada yada I know, but he hung in there pretty well against better pitching than he was used to.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Nov 12, 2006 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

I remain convinced...

that part of the reason for Young Dunc's improvement in batting average viz-a-viz his minor league numbers is a change in his swing! He appeared to have shortened his swing during the 2006 season, as opposed to the way he swung the bat during 2005. I recall (but cannot provide a link, alas) that Hal McRae was quoted in the P-D saying something to that effect.

I'll admit it is entirely possible that Dunc will "regress to the mean" of his minor-league projections... but I also think it's entirely possible that Dunc has improved enough as a hitter that he won't "regress" that much.

No, I don't see him as another Ryan Howard... but I believe he'll be a better hitter than Brian Daubach.

As for his playing RF rather than LF, Duncan says he's more comfortable in right, since he was "used to" the flight of the ball on that side of the field as a 1B. Regardless, Dunc should use spring training as an opportunity to take as many extra fly balls in the OF as possible.

"A man should live forever, or die trying." -- Mike Callahan

by The Ol Goaler on Nov 12, 2006 2:04 PM EST reply actions

Shorter swings

That would greatly explain his plate discipline.

by Zubin on Nov 12, 2006 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

yep

good call Goaler. the P-D did say to the effect that dunc was working at keeping the bat in the zone a bit more. i was also impressed with the number of close pitches he started to take. it's very possible that something has clicked, but until we see more it's hard to tell. i too think he'll be better then Daubach, but the resemblance is sure there.

"Go Crazy, Folks! Go Crazy!"

by erik on Nov 12, 2006 2:31 PM EST up reply actions

Aramis Ramirez signs a $72M contract with the cubs

This just in...
Aramis Ramirez agrees to a $73 million, five-year contract with the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs also signed Kerry Wood to a $1.75 million, one-year deal that could be worth up to $6 million.

Almost $15M/ year for Ramirez... wow. J'Ed's contract doesn't seem bad, does it?

by Zubin on Nov 12, 2006 7:49 PM EST reply actions

That Ramirez deal doesn't sound bad at all

He's been consistent, durable and improving ever since he's joined the Cubs. He's had a .900+ OPS at 3B for each of those years, while hitting over 30 HR a year. They didn't get a steal, but that's about the guy's market value.

by Valatan on Nov 12, 2006 8:59 PM EST up reply actions

And he, once in a while

he runs to 1st base.

by sdrone on Nov 12, 2006 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

another duncan/howard similarity/difference

both have limited defensive value and were blocked at first base by top sluggers. but the difference is, as things worked out in philly, thome was traded after howard proved he could hit. there's no way the cards would trade pujols, so duncan has to play elsewhere in the field.

before he won the ROY in thome's place, there was a lot of talk of the phillies trading howard because the didn't have a place for him. the same logic may apply to the cardinals now.

duncan doesn't really look like he belongs in the outfield. i like duncan but it seems like he would be a better fit on a team that could use him at first or DH, and i wouldn't be too upset if jocketty used him as bait in a trade. i wonder how much his family ties would influence possible trade discussions

by mattlo on Nov 12, 2006 7:55 PM EST reply actions

Defensive liabilities

For the most part clubs can afford a defensive liability in left, see Rameriz, Manny or Bonds, Barry. Personnaly I don't know what kind of left feilder Duncan could be with more practice. I know he is kind of lumbering- just 'cause he's big- but I am not exactly sure how fast or slow he is.

On the otherhand apparantly Howard is a defensive liability at first base. In his full season, he collected a Stone Glove "award." But then again, despite Bill James' defensive spectrum, I am not entirely convinced 1st is an easier position than left feild.

by Zubin on Nov 12, 2006 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

A thought on right field...

What would everyone think about signing Jose Guillen to a two year deal to play right field. If indeed Encarnacion is on his way out, Guillen seems like a great fit to me. The guy, when healthy, is capable of giving you 25-30 homers, an .850 OPS, and plays great defense with a real cannon. He seems like a guy who will be undervalued in this years free agent market, and I can't imagine him costing much more than Juan will over the next two years.

by El Schweenador on Nov 12, 2006 8:42 PM EST reply actions

would guillen be an improvement?

i don't see guillen as a significant upgrade over encarnacion. they are the same age, baseball-reference.com rates them as similar batters, and encarnacion has been better the past year or two.

guillen is coming off of an injury and very poor performance this year. yes, there's a chance that guillen will rebound well from the injury and have a strong season - but there's also a decent chance that his elbow continues to hamper his play.

guillen's career average season (.272 avg, 21 hr, 83 rbi per 162 games) is virtually identical to what encarnacion did for the birds this year (.278 avg, 19 hr, 79 rbi in 153 games). encarnacion's career average is essentially the same (.269/20/85), and that is the type of year you should expect from either player next year. their career OPS numbers are also very close (jose: .766, juan: .757)

i know encarnacion has been criticized by a lot of cards fans for not playing hard, but remember that guillen has a reputation for getting into trouble

so the only reason i can see to prefer guillen would be his defensive reputation. is encarnacion really so bad in the field?

by mattlo on Nov 12, 2006 9:50 PM EST up reply actions

I like Guillen too

Simlpy because I saw him with the reds, and he was a better player than Jaun. Then he went to oakland, and helped them get to the playoffs.

But there is that "cancer" tag that has followed him. and thats what scares me about him. he is one of those guys that wants to win so badly, that he almost looses his mind. he gets so into it,he looses his temper. and he is almost uncontrolable. remember what he did to the angels at the end of 04? mike pulled him, jose starts yelling at him in the dugout. they have this big blowup. jose had to be held back. In my humble opinion, if you go after mike scioscia, you need to get your head checked. that dude is HUGE. and then mike kicks him off the team for the playoffs.

thats the only thing that scares me about jose. can he keep it together? dude can rake. has a cannon for a right arm. but can he hold his emotions in check if Tony pulled him late in the game? if he challenged scioscia, I personaly think not. the Cardinals would have to put something in his contract about him keeping his cool. making it nul&void if he loses it.

he might be worth a look. but I think Walt will look the other direction. just my take.

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD.

by gdm426 on Nov 12, 2006 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

Guillen's career line

.272/.321/.445

not exactly raking, imo

He was hurt last year but frankly I don't find his numbers very impressive at all. He has some serious problems staying healthy having only topped 100 games 5 times in 13 years. He doesn't walk enough for my tastes and his power seems very erratic (his SLG from year to year has some odd, seemingly random spikes). I don't think he augments the OF beyond what we get from Juan. And Juan stays healthier.

PECOTA's not as down on him as I would have expected but w/ another injury plagued season that could change.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 12, 2006 11:27 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not saying that...

we should ditch Juan in favor of Guillen. I'm simply suggesting it if somehow Juan is thrown in on some deal. As long as we get another decent bat, I can tolerate another year of Juan.

by El Schweenador on Nov 13, 2006 12:37 AM EST up reply actions

I'm saying Guillen isn't really a decent

bat. And with Jimmy in the outfield, I think it would be unwise to take on an injury risk candidate whose career numbers aren't that good.

I think that unless it's a Bonds/Burrell type bat (i.e. post a near or above .900 OPS) then they can't afford to take on any more injury risks. If nothing else Juan stays healthy.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Nov 13, 2006 1:53 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not saying get Guillen eather

I just like him better than Juan. Always have. personal preferance I guess. Biggest knock on Juan is that us fans cannont tell if he cares or not. Like when he turns a double down the right field line into a inside-the-park-homerun. You would think he just woke from a mid summer afternoon nap up by the way he acts in the outfield. And that makes him look bad. Albert says he cares, so I belive that he does. But you sure cannot tell it. At least with Jose you would deffinatly know if he was sad, happy, angry, hungry, sleepy, or constipated.

Unlike most on this site, I don't get to caught up in numbers. I know, I know. Baseball is all about the digits. But there is deffinatly a "human" element to the game as well. Sure Jose may be more prone to get hurt. Sure Juan stays healthy. But just because Juan is healthy, does not stop him from looking silly at the plate for months at a time. At least when I saw Jose play, when he is healthy, he maked the most of his at bats.

This is all a moot point anyway. Jose will never be a Cardinal. Now watch Walt sigh him to a minor league non-guaranteed deal just to prove me wrong. Juan just fustrates me to no end, because like JD, Juan has all the talent in the world. And it seams like to me, that if he would just focus more, and put it all together. He would be one of the best outfielders in the game. I never had the talent to play in the majors. It was always my dream to. And I hate to watch players who do have that talent waste it. And just cruise out there, going through the motions. They have no idea how lucky they are that they have the greatest job in the world. And they waste it. They settle for average or good, when if they worked harder, or focused more, they could be great. Thats what I am talking about comparing Jose to Juan. From this fans perspective, Jose does not waste his talent. Juan does.

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD.

by gdm426 on Nov 13, 2006 3:54 AM EST up reply actions

Aramis signed a big contract....

Now he'll probably get hurt like D-lee did, unfortunately.

by TNFan32 on Nov 12, 2006 9:10 PM EST reply actions

huh?

by 'unfortunately', you mean 'hopefully', right?

by Fitz on Nov 12, 2006 9:20 PM EST up reply actions

Perhaps a ball could

bounce off the top of his head.

by sdrone on Nov 12, 2006 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

He's not...

Jose Canseco.

Obsessions of a Cardinal Fan
Redbirds Fun

by Quietude on Nov 12, 2006 11:25 PM EST up reply actions

It's already happened to Error-miss once...

could happen to him again.

by Big Red on Nov 12, 2006 11:58 PM EST up reply actions

Duncan and the numbers

I like Duncan but he is still a platoon player to me. He put up big numbers on fastball counts hitting almost solely against righties with Albert Pujols looming on deck. Oops! The pitchers will adjust. Drew did much of the same thing in his rookie season. He has to learn to hit the junk and he needs to face a whole lot more lefties before I consider him an everyday player. I'd be very happy saving money with him and Skip on the team with some lefty killer... ugh how bad does Bernie want to play?

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Nov 12, 2006 10:24 PM EST reply actions

Baby Dunc

nice to see a lot of you coming around about keeping Duncan. as I said last week, cheep, lefty power hitters don't fall into your lap every day. keep him. keep delveloping his defence. hear me now, believe me later, he will get better. keep developing his hitting. he really did a good job in the second half of laying off the down and away pitch. but he still swings at it sometimes. and the down and in pitch too. but he is young, willing to learn, and has shown great improvement recently. no reason to trade him unless you get something a lot more valuable in return.

no offence to daubach, but if I am Duncan, and people are comparing me to him, I am pissed off. I know, the numbers are very similar. but come on people, do any of you honestly think Chris Duncan is the next daubach? I think not.

so, who is more valuable than Duncan, that the Cardinals can get in trade for Duncan?

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD.

by gdm426 on Nov 12, 2006 11:24 PM EST reply actions

The guy...

has been "developing his defense" as a professional player for, what, 6-8 years now and he still can't catch a fly ball if Jim Edmonds is standing 15 feet away because its too distracting. He's not going to become a decent defender over the winter if he hasn't become one already. He could get better, but the most likely eventuality is that his value will only go down from here.

Deal him for pitching.

by guayzimi on Nov 12, 2006 11:37 PM EST up reply actions

Dunc

He's also played first base for those 6-8 years you have been saying. Anyways, IF we get the RIGHT pitcher, I'd deal him.

I can distincly remember duncan laying out and catching a ball he shouldn't have caught during the end of the regular season. He can do it, just needs more time and practice out there. He seems like the kind of guy that wants to improve and be a better overall player. He will work hard this off season to be better next year, I have faith in the guy! :D

by lynx on Nov 13, 2006 12:09 AM EST up reply actions

diving..

2 that I remember. I remember two errors in the WS too. However, I do like him, he's worth keeping around, as opposed to the nothing that we'd get back for him.

"Seeing a great catch is like watching girls walk by, the last one you see is always the prettiest." Bob Gibson

by SchwabbaMoose on Nov 13, 2006 12:35 AM EST up reply actions

Now, I could be wrong

But didn't he just move to left and right field in 2005 when he was in Springfield? so thats two years in the outfield, after all his life at first or DH'ing. The last one spent mostly with the big boys in STL. Dude you and a lot of other fans need to cut him some major slack. He did a pretty dang good job out there for us this season. He did make at least two amazing diving catches. One robbing jose reyes of a inside-the-park-homerun in august in nyc. not easy at all.

with a full winter of practice he will improve. he is not adam dunn. next year in the outfield Duncan will more than hold his own. Hear me now, belive me later.

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD. My Blog: And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Nov 13, 2006 4:04 AM EST up reply actions