Playoffs Play and Making the 07 Teams

by Titus Pullo on Oct 6, 2006 10:06 AM EDT Comment 17 comments

With respect to the question of who will be on next year's team, I can think of five players who are on the bubble right now, and I wonder whether strong playoff performances might convince management to stick with them.

I'll start with Belliard. ESPN is reporting that the Indians want him back next year. I can understand why. As he has shown repeatedly the past two games, the guy's range is unbelievably broad. He's like having one big ball vacuum stretching nearly the whole expanse from first to second base, except in this case the vacuum also can turn a pretty nifty DP. How could we let the guy get away?
Weaver. If he turns in games like yesterday's for the remainder of the playoffs (which are at least one and likely at least two more games), why would we give him up?
Suppan. Same question, as long as he doesn't pitch terribly in the playoffs.
Edmonds. What to do? I think Jed will need to turn in a Pujols-like performance to stay on the team next year. Management probably views him as they did Reggie Sanders: i.e., Thanks for the good play this year, but we don't think you're worth the risk of bad play next year. But what if he turns in heroic plays ala 2004 NLCS?
Wainwright. Is this guy cementing a spot as a closer? Chances are that Izzy doesn't come back. Given Wainwright's performance, why would we move him. Seems to me that it's much easier to find decent pitchers for the third or fourth spot in the rotation than finding a closer. If the market for closers is dry this off-season, don't the Cards have to leave him in the Pen?

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Weaver

As much as I liked yesterday's performance, how much do you think Boras is going to be asking for him? And which Weaver would you get, the one that stumbled through the season or the one we saw yesterday and over the last few games of the season. That L/R split still worries me in the long haul.

by Just Rope Ball on Oct 6, 2006 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

considering Weavers awful frontline

stats this year, I doubt he coudl demand all THAT much for a contract. I am curious how the 2007 rotation will look

by Valatan on Oct 6, 2006 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Set-up man

Weaver has the feel of a guy who could set-up, if he doesn't keep it together as a closer. Now whats that worth, and what is the risk involved is a question that will be answered this offseason.

by BigJawnMize on Oct 6, 2006 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as a starter

not a closer, i am an idiot...

by BigJawnMize on Oct 6, 2006 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Offseason

Belliard---he needs to hit better. I would like to see us make a run at Ray Durham if we don't bring Ronnie back.

Weaver--Great start aside, he has been average at best. Supp will be back. Mulder might be. Buerhle is an option because the Sox probably wont pick his option up. Reyes will be back. I wouldn't mind Narveson or Thompson getting the 5th spot. I doubt Weaver will be back next year.

Jimmy---Hopefully, we buy him out then resign him for a big discount. When he is healthy, he is still the best option in CF. Also, we need LH bats.

Wainwright---MUST be the closer. Nobody wants Izzy back. Wainwright has closer's stuff with 2 PLUS pitches. He can also blow 94-95 mph fastballs past hitters up in the zone. He's the closer IMO.

Come on You Redbirds--Mike Shannon

by BluesDrummer85 on Oct 6, 2006 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

The same Ray Durham who has missed at least 20 games the past 6 years?

Acquire Barry Zito!

by aet15 on Oct 6, 2006 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1...

Love the Belly, but I feel like Grudz is a similar player, and if you want to spend $5 mil over a couple years you can always go get one of those guys...

Weaver in 2003 put up a 6 era and a 1.62 WHIP... Lefties hit .342 that year off him... The stat lines are very similar aside from home runs allowed: 34 this year, 16 in 2003. He fled to the NL in 2004 and had a borderline excellent season, then had another good season in 2005 except he gave up 35 home runs. Maybe he can bounce back with the help of Duncan, but what do you pay for someone like this?
We need at least two Suppans for '07 one way or the other. Better the Suppan you know...
Madness not to pick up the option. A 260-350-450 line and above average defense in 130 games is worth $7mil... His range factor has come down over the past couple years, but I would still rather have him in center defensively than most anyone else.
If the kid can pitch effectively as a starter, he should be a starter for the simple fact that 200 well-pitched innings is better than 60 well-pitched innings.

That's the plan, dude

by guayzimi on Oct 6, 2006 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Belliard vs. Grudz

Interesting to compare Grudz and the Belly. Their salaries are exactly the same ($4M), though, I think Grudz is on a two-year contract. Their offensive production is similar, viz:

Belliard Age 31
SPLIT G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Season
147 544 63 148 30 1 13 67 2 .272 .322 .403
Career
1049 3812 528 1036 247 21 80 439 32 .272 .338 .411

Grudzielanek Age 36
SPLIT G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Season
134 548 85 163 32 4 7 52 3 .297 .331 .409
Career
1570 6158 830 1774 335 33 81 554 128 .288 .330 .393

Looking at bottom-lines, the Belly is younger, and has more pop. Also, and I can't prove this with these stats, I think the Belly has a bit more range. The Belly may cost more next year, but, since I thought we should have kept Grudz, I also think we should keep the Belly.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Oct 6, 2006 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rotation

1.Carp
2.Potential "ace-like"
3.Reyes
4.Wainwright
5.Weaver

Free up money for the big name. Drop all of the free agents. Go after somebody big. Use the Diamondback model (Schilling/Johnson/then who?)If that could happen, look at that rotation. Possibly devastating, plus Pujols on the offense. Wainwright would look good in the closer role, but we have too much money tied up in Izzy that I don't think it's feasible unless we can get Izzy traded. (Which I doubt will happen because he is damaged goods)We may be able to trade him before the deadline but then it would be too late to convert Adam back to the role without leaving a hole in the rotation.

We are the Cardinals, the Mighty Mighty Cardinals!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 6, 2006 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather see Suppan in the fifth spot

but if they sign Schmidt for the two spot, they could throw Jose Lima's ass on the mound every 5 days and I wouldn't bitch (much).

It's all about getting that second ace.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Oct 6, 2006 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would also

I'm just going with the best way to free up money for a push to a 2nd ace. Soup would be better, but I would sacrifice him for the Ace.

We are the Cardinals, the Mighty Mighty Cardinals!

by OKCardsfan on Oct 6, 2006 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

07 - What I'm hoping for

Carp
Schmidt/Buhrle
Soup
Reyes
Mulder/Thompson

Wainy
Kinney
Looper
TJ
Flores/Rincon
Hancock
Izzy/Filler till hes healty

Eck
Dunc
Apu
Rolen
Jed
Juan
Belly
Molina

Speez
Miles
Schu
Jrod
Backup Catcher

Mostly the same team...Basicly a big one two punch in the rotation would be huge. I don't think little dunc will regress much.. Molina's balls should drop in for a few more hits.. If JED gets hurt Speez gets the bulk of the PT. I dont think they let mulder walk but if they do i think Thompson could be good as a starter. You see the money izzy gets, and were going to have to replace him after next year anyway.. why wouldnt you keep WW as the closer. Hes cheap!

by El Hombre on Oct 6, 2006 8:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Buerhle scares me

he reminds me far too much of Mark Mulder circa 2004-2005. Not finished but flashing all the warning signs. I do not want him on this team next year...or really until his K/9 starts going in the right direction again.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Oct 7, 2006 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All the pundit chatter seems to indicate

that A-Rod is done in NY. If this is true, I would really love to see a run at him... maybe NYY would be willing to take their chances with a trade along the lines of Izzy + (Reyes or Duncan) = Rodriguez. Then, move Eck to 2B, put A-Rod at SS. Izzy's contract would help balance out A-Rod's, and then it would just be a matter of making a run at a top flight starter, and plug the rest of the team with cheap replacements. It's a risky move, but having Rodriguez batting second (remember that he's a great base stealer), and Pujols batting third would be pretty dangerous.

by Valatan on Oct 8, 2006 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if they can get the yanks

to eat $2m to $3m per annum for the remainder of the contract --- which would leave st louis on the hook for $12m to $14m per year --- i'd love to see it. alternatively, get the yanks to take rolen and his salary; would only add about $4m a year to cards' payroll.

i think other orgs are going to be more desperate for him though, and might be better positioned to absorb the payroll and/or give up prospects than stl.

interesting prospect -- i think a-rod would thrive in stl

by lboros on Oct 8, 2006 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but then again

thinking as i type . . . . would there be a pujols/rodriguez rivalry, much as there was a jeter/rodriguez rivalry in nyy? i like to think alberto would not be threatened by the acquisition and would in fact welcome it . . . .

by lboros on Oct 8, 2006 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also,

they aren't playing the same position, and St. Louis fans don't have the "Jeter won us a championship, what have you done, A-Rod?" attitude. I think I would have developed a Jan Brady attitude in that situation after a couple of years myself.

Now, A-Rod might resent being second bananna on yet another team, but who knows? It'd be a risk worth taking, IMO

by Valatan on Oct 8, 2006 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs