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Playoff Odds Part II

In follow up to my previous post, it's worth noting that, in the history of the Division Series (since 1995), there have been 24 teams to lose game one at home. Out of those 24, only seven have gone on to win the series (I mistakenly put down the 1999 Indians in a previous post, when it was in fact the Braves who overcame the odds that year).

In light of today's victory over the Padres I did a little more research - of those seven teams to come back from losing game one at home, six of them won game 2 at home. The only team to ever come back from losing games one and two at home was the 2001 New York Yankees - that's the series where Hudson and Mulder won games one and two, and then Zito, Lidle, and Mulder lost consecutively to choke away the advantage. (Reading those game summaries was kinda weird - Mulder winning over Clemens with Isringhausen getting the save).

Thus, the Padres have a 4.16% chance, based upon historical models, of coming back to win this series. So, to my Padres fans who say "it ain't over 'till it's over", I concede that they have a 4.16% chance of coming back.

0 recs  |  Comment 3 comments

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then again ...
... based on the 2006 regular season, i'd say the cards have more than a 4.16% chance of losing three games in a row.

but i'd take whatever odds those are as well.

matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Oct 6, 2006 12:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think I heard...
that 20 teams have gone up 2-0 in the current playoff format, ie the NLDS or ALDS.  Out of those 20, only 1 has dropped three straight.  That would be 5%.  

by Brock20 on Oct 6, 2006 10:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I heard
that in the NLDS, there have been 12 teams to go down 0-2, and 10 of those series ended up in sweeps. I didn't look this particular information up - but I did look up the numbers above - 24 teams have lost game one at home, only seven of those came back to win the series. Of those seven, six of them won game two at home. Only one team came back. I don't see the Padres doing that.

by lawman3842 on Oct 6, 2006 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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