Playoff Odds Part II

In follow up to my previous post, it's worth noting that, in the history of the Division Series (since 1995), there have been 24 teams to lose game one at home. Out of those 24, only seven have gone on to win the series (I mistakenly put down the 1999 Indians in a previous post, when it was in fact the Braves who overcame the odds that year).

In light of today's victory over the Padres I did a little more research - of those seven teams to come back from losing game one at home, six of them won game 2 at home. The only team to ever come back from losing games one and two at home was the 2001 New York Yankees - that's the series where Hudson and Mulder won games one and two, and then Zito, Lidle, and Mulder lost consecutively to choke away the advantage. (Reading those game summaries was kinda weird - Mulder winning over Clemens with Isringhausen getting the save).

Thus, the Padres have a 4.16% chance, based upon historical models, of coming back to win this series. So, to my Padres fans who say "it ain't over 'till it's over", I concede that they have a 4.16% chance of coming back.