Playoff Odds

Only three teams other than the Yankees have pulled off a win in the Division Series after dropping game one at home. Here's hoping the Padres aren't the fourth.

Here's an exerpt of my recent post over at The Cardinal Curmudgeon, the coolest-looking if the most-neglected Cardinal fan blog on the web. I thought it'd be interesting in light of the pessimism expressed in the messages posted on this site (including my own comments, by the way).

I know the Cardinals have not been the great team they were in '04 and '05, but they're not as bad as people think they are or expect them to be. lboros over at Viva El Birdos said, in his pre-playoff post, "my heart says the Cardinals, but my head says the Padres" (caps added for grammatical effect ;-). I can't say I disagreed, looking at the strengths of the San Diego Club. However, after St. Louis won the first game, I am calling the series for the Cardinals. Here's why:

Since the inception of the current playoff scheme, that is, the 8-team tournament system including a Division Series, there have been 44 first-round series played. Of those 44, the team that won the first game prevailed 61.37% of the time (27 times). It gets better: of those 44 series, the home team lost game one 24 times, a remarkable percentage. When the home team lost game one, it went on to win the series only seven times, the '96 Yankees, '99 Indians, '01 Mariners, '01, '03, and '04 Yankees, and the '05 Angels. That's only 29.17% of the time.

Further, the Cardinals have never blown a series once they've taken the first game. Incidentally, this series marks only the third time (out of seven) that the Cardinals have opened the Division Series on the road, and they've now won two of three. The only time they lost game one on the road was in 2001 when the fell to the soon-to-be World Champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

Do these numbers mean much? Well, probably not. They still have to play the games. But St. Louis has already neutralized the home field advantage and has swung it their own way. For the Padres to win this series they'll have to beat either Suppan or Carpenter (or both) in St. Louis, and if they only get one of those games, they'll have to win both of their home games. The Cards only have to split the remainder, which seems a lot more likely than winning three of five seemed only yesterday.

Only three teams other than the Yankees have pulled off a win in the Division Series after dropping game one at home. Here's hoping the Padres aren't the fourth.