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Low Nielsen Ratings

I'm tired of hearing about this being the lowest rated world series.  So was last year's.  And the 2000s have been lower than the 1990s.  That's not news.  But, to show this, I did a quick analysis using data from ESPN (see data below for years 1996-2006). I did a multiple regression regressing either Rating or Share on year (coded 1 = 1995 to 11 = 2005) and on # of games played. I deliberately excluded 2006 to pick up the trend by year to see where you'd expect 2006 to fall. The outcome is very simple:

Year is a highly significant predictor in both regressions despite the small sample.  # of games makes no difference.

Ratings are dropping 1/2 a point per year.

Share is dropping 1 point per year.

The upshot:  Thhe 2006 viewing results are right at what you'd expect given larger patterns in TV viewing (i.e., more shows, more use of the internet, etc.).

The aberrant World Series was 2004, which was well above the trend (technically, it's "residual error" is 1.6 standard deviations above what would be expected).  Thus, our Cardinals were in the most unexpectedly popular World Series in recent years; of course, credit for the level of interest is shared with a large Red Sox fan base and the mystique of an 80 year old curse. (It wasn't due to an exciting series.)

I'll go out on a limb and predict that next year's share will be about a point lower than this year's.  

The ESPN data are included below.

Year            Rating  Share   #Games
2006 (Fox)    10.1    17    5
2005 (Fox)    11.1    19    4
2004 (Fox)    15.8    25    4
2003 (Fox)    12.8    22    6
2002 (Fox)    11.9    20    7
2001 (Fox)    15.7    25    7
2000 (Fox)    12.4    21    5
1999 (NBC)    16    26    4
1998 (Fox)    14.1    24    4
1997 (NBC)    16.8    29    7
1996 (Fox)    17.4    29    6
1995 (Fox-ABC)    19.3    33    6

0 recs  |  Comment 3 comments

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Also note
that NBC gets higher ratings than FOX.

Can FOX please just get so discouraged at these ratings that they sell their rights to the series?

I heard a proposal to Deadspin that fans each contribute $100 to buy the rights from FOX, and to give them to NBC.  We could get some ad space, too.  Kill "This is Our Country" at the same time.

Ah, if only my personal fantasies could play out.

by Valatan on Oct 30, 2006 3:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

if NBC gets it...
It means Bob Costas could actually call a game again!
Redbirds Fun
The Kentucky Democrat
Win it for JB and DK57

by cardsfan84 on Oct 30, 2006 7:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well I can stan besiahd...
Am I not the only one that wishes someone would find a picture of "cougar" shaking hands with bin Laden or something equally as damning.

Using Rosa Parks and that Sh*tty song to sell trucks.  Gag me with a truck-sized spoon.

git 'em outa hur.

I've got $100 if you wanna lead the charge, Val.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Oct 30, 2006 3:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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