Now that we have basked in a great victory...

by Zack Morris on Oct 20, 2006 1:28 PM EDT Comment 8 comments

Who starts Game 1?

The only real options seem to be Weaver or Reyes. (Tony wouldn't bring Marquis back, would he?)

Personally, I vote Reyes. He wasn't outstanding in his NLCS start, but I'd like to see Tony show some faith in him. I think that would bolster his confidence and maybe we would see some real fire out of him. A Game 1 win with him pitching would be a HUGE bonus, and even if they lose, Weaver would be able to come back on regular rest and possibly get them a split of the road games in Game 2. If they flip them, then a loss in Game 1 puts Reyes out there in more of a back-to-the-wall situation, where I'd prefer to see someone like Weaver.

I guess the other possibility is to go Weaver on short rest in Game 1 and Reyes in Game 2, allowing Weaver to be ready to go again in Game 5. I'd like to see them roll the dice with the rookie in Game 1 and really try to get ahead with a solid performance from him and probably some bullpen help.

Any thoughts?

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I was going to post this in a diary...

I think the whole thing will come down to whether to how much it rains the next two days in Detroit.
With no rain, our rotation of fully rested starters is

Reyes
Weav
OFF
Supp
Carp
Reyes
OFF
Weav
Supp

Two Reyes, one Carp... Awful

With a rainout on Saturday:

Rainout
Weav
Carp
Supp
Reyes
Weav
OFF
Carp
Supp

The best possible outcome.

With a rainout on Sunday:

Reyes
Rainout
Carp
Supp
Weav
Reyes
OFF
Carp
Supp

Better than no rainout, but still Reyes twice.

Forecast is for rain. We can only hope.

I would definitely start Reyes in Game 1 with no rain, might as well give Weaver full rest.

by guayzimi on Oct 20, 2006 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Carps/Supp

Actually Carp would be in line for a start before Supps. So it would go

Gm1 at DET - Reyes
Gm2 at DET - Weaver
off
Gm3 at STL - Carpenter
Gm3 at STL - Suppan
Gm5 at STL - Reyes
off
Gm6 at DET - Weaver
Gm7 at DET - Carpenter

I like that alot. Sure Reyes pitching in game 1 is a ton of pressure for the kid but I'd take him over He Who Shall Not Be Named and Weaver on 3-days rest. Maybe we take our lumps in Gm1, or maybe not, but then the rotation is set up as good as you could hope for the rest of the way.

If we could steal one of the first two in DET and then come home with Carp/Supp/Reyes and then send Weaver/Carp to DET....I like it alot.

The way it could get ugly and out of hand early is if TLR panics and goes with Weaver in Gm1 on short rest and then being down 0-1 either puts a ton of pressure on Reyes or turns to Carpenter on short rest...that's why I think we gotta go Reyes game 1!

Pujols For MVP!

by TheFranchise9 on Oct 20, 2006 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Reyes in Game 1

But I would argue that Carp should go in Game 2 no matter what. He'd be on short rest, but he also got pulled after only 76 pitches on Wednesday so I gotta think he can bounce back quickly and come out strong. I just think having Carp and Suppan on the hill four times gives the Cards their best chance. The only real problem in my opinion is that it creates a longer layoff for Weaver, but to me that's just the price you have to pay to get your studs out there as often as possible. So basically, my rotation would be:

Game 1 - Reyes
Game 2 - Carp
Game 3 - Suppan
Game 4 - Weaver
Game 5 - Reyes
Game 6 - Carp
Game 7 - Suppan

I like the Cards chances with that. I think Reyes could win at least one of his two starts, with Carp and Supp taking care of the rest.

Luck O' The Redbirds

by stlnd on Oct 20, 2006 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

short rest

I want to avoid starting anyone on short rest. Carp DID only throw 76 pitches, but I'm not really sure it matters if you throw 110 or 70, the arm doesn't bounce back to 100% in 3 days.

Relief pitches can do it bc they only throw 20-30, but once you get over the 50 pitch mark I think its all the same.

I have no statistical or medical evidence of this, just personal experience from being a pitcher ... just my thoughts.

Pujols For MVP!

by TheFranchise9 on Oct 20, 2006 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

500 innings

I'm also concerned with Carp's huge workload over the past two seasons ... I think he really needs all the rest he can get. Again, not saying I'm right, you're wrong, just putting my thoughts into the mix.

Pujols For MVP!

by TheFranchise9 on Oct 20, 2006 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, his workload does scare me a bit

I just think if he says he can go, it gives the best alternative b/c it gives Suppan a chance to pitch twice as well. The only other way that happens is if both Carp and Supp come back on short rest in games 6 and 7, and I'd much rather only have one short rest game and get it out of the way early instead of this option. As great as Weaver has been lately, I'd just much rather see the two big guns on the mound as much as possible. But I definitely see the arguments against my idea as well. Like you said, I'm just trying to throw some thoughts out there.

Luck O' The Redbirds

by stlnd on Oct 20, 2006 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs