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before we get into this: it has been asked if VEB can be downloaded to a cellphone. the best answer i can give after various inquiries is that you can do it with a browser called Opera Mini, which is downloadable from this site. reader I Touched Mcgee was posting from busch III sunday night at the clincher via his cell; McGee, if you have any other advice about downloading to / posting from a cell, please clue the folks in.

alright, then: the mets.

in my nlds preview last week, i consulted voros mccracken's playoff crap-shoot matrix and a similar odds-making formula by baseball prospectus' james click; they estimated the cards' chances of winning the series at 40 to 45 percent, not terrible odds. but the two instruments are less sanguine about the possibility of a st louis upset over the mets --- likelihood's only about 1 in 3, per these formulae.

that forecast checks out with the empirical evidence. the cardinals won 14 fewer games than the mets this season, making this the 9th most lopsided matchup in lcs history (3d most lopsided if we consider the nlcs only). in the 8 matchups more lopsided than this one, the underdog won 2 times -- a 25 percent success rate. if we expand our sample size to include all lcs matchups with a spread of 10 wins or more, here's what we get:

win
differential
underdog
record
20+ games 1-3
15-19 games 1-3
10-14 games 3-8
total 5-14

common trait among the upset winners? four of the five had (duh) at least 2 dominant starters at the top of the rotation. (if you're keeping score at home, those four teams are the 2005 astros, 1987 twins, 1973 mets, and 2001 yankees.) if you ask me, a 1 in 4 shot at a world series berth is pretty good for an 83-win ballclub; those odds are about the same as the odds that juan encarnacion might get a basehit in a given at-bat. it's far from hopeless.

for the first time in recent memory, the cardinals have a real opportunity to win a series with their bats; no schmidts, schillings, or oswalts anywhere in sight. a couple of blitzkreig attacks against new york's feeble starters might set the kind of tone that can foster an upset. but the cards better score early, because the met bullpen is every bit the equal of the padres'; if the games are tight, new york will hold the edge. it went unnoticed, but st louis didn't score off the san diego pen until the final game, and both the runs were unearned. the cardinals' young relievers matched san diego's zero for zero, but i wouldn't bet on kinney johnson and wainwright pitching like aces forever. the mets have a tougher lineup, and the nlcs is a bigger stage; i hope the kids can keep posting 0s on the scoreboard, but i am not counting on it.

jeff suppan has a chance to make a name for himself in this series; a good start or two on this stage with the national media paying rapt attention, and he's like to drive up his asking price by $2m a year on the free-agent market. he's slated to pitch games 2 and 6 opposite new york rookie john maine, and those loom as pivotal matchups. on paper (for what little that's worth in a short series), the mets hold the advantage in games 1 and 5 (glavine vs weaver), and the cards hold it in 3 and 7 (carpenter vs trachsel); game 4 (perez vs marquis/reyes) is a tossup. maine and suppan appear to be pretty evenly matched; let's take a closer look:

w-l era avg obp slg hr/9 k/w
suppan 12-7 4.12 .277 .344 .440 1.0 1.5
maine 6-5 3.60 .212 .287 .399 1.5 2.2

supps does a better job of keeping the ball in the park, but the rookie appears to hold the advantage in ev'y other respect; we better start parsing things up if we want this to look better for our side. suppan pitched lights-out after the all-star break; surely that split's more encouraging:

w-l era avg obp slg hr/9 k/w
suppan 6-2 2.39 .253 .318 .370 0.7 1.8
maine 6-2 3.28 .203 .283 .368 1.3 2.0

that does indeed even things out a bit, although maine didn't pitch too shabby in the 2d half himself. but here's another bit of pertinent news: maine appears to have been more reliant upon luck than ol' supps. the stats below courtesy fangraphs:

BABIP LOB % FIP
suppan .301 72 4.76
maine .228 77 4.96

maine's .228 average on balls in play is unsustainably low; he can't expect to keep that up indefinitely. ditto his strand rate of 77 percent. their FIPs show them to be pretty evenly matched pitchers; if we could parse that figure by pre/post all-star (and i don't know where that data is available), suppan would doubtless hold an advantage. they both pitched poorly in the nlds -- maine held LA to 1 run, but only because of the dodgers' inept baserunning and 3d-base coaching; he is flyball/strikeout pitcher (0.85 go/ao ratio), so the cardinals need to exploit the kid's weakness and loft a couple over the fence.

i read something encouraging in the post-dispatch this morning:

Facing an allegedly superior opponent, La Russa is liberated to "push." He no longer feels constrained by "the book," he says, "because the book says you're going to lose."
attaboy tony; stay loose. i truly hope, in that spirit, he'll roll the dice on anthony reyes in game 4 of the series. the kid has already demonstrated an ability to pitch well under pressure; in his two penultimate starts down the stretch, he pitched toe-to-toe against chris capuano and the padres' chris young. reyes did get clobbered on the season's final day, but come on; the start came on short rest, and the rookie had no idea he'd be starting that crucial game until a couple of hours before the first pitch. he surely was no worse in that final start than jason marquis in his final game of 2006, where he got six outs and gave up six runs. jason posted era's in august and september of 6.75 and 7.25, respectively -- and we can't write those figures off to "take one for the team" outings, in which his stats got inflated by one or two gratuitous beatings. in two of jason's last 3 starts, he failed to get out of the 3d inning.

look at it this way: a starting pitcher who is guaranteed to draw boos from the hometown crowd -- a st louis crowd, no less -- when the PA guy announces his name during the pregame introductions? that's just not a pitcher you want to use in the playoffs. don't do it, tony . . . . . please?

maybe la russa's so fed up with his critics this year that he's considering giving marquis a start just to punish us all.

if i'm the mets, i don't want to face games 6/7 with maine/trachsel as my two starters; i'm hoping to close things out in a hurry. if the cards can just hang in there and win 2 of the first 5 games, i'd take my chances with supps and carp in the last two and feel as if st louis could still swipe the series. should the cardinals manage to win either of the glavine starts (games 1 and 5), i like their chances a lot; if they don't, it's still not a lost cause.

here's hoping for a long series.

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by _pistol_ on Oct 10, 2006 9:15 AM EDT   0 recs

good analysis by lb
As usual, careful analysis by lboros, but there's an element of "can't see the forest for the trees."
Each team's regular season record was compiled by a different lineup and rotation than will play in this series. Some NY success was earned by Pedro, who is gone. Much of our pitching trouble came from guys who were hurt and won't be pitching in this series. Plus, some of our kids have matured over the season.

So, sit back and root for the Redbirds.

by madridbend on Oct 10, 2006 9:41 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

For What it's worth ...
... I'm a Mets fan living in St. Louis.  Not here to instigate, but just to revel in the fun that this series should be.  I'm not gloating or here to be an ass, because I think it will be a close series.  I root for the Cards any other game, just not now.

But you should now that the Mets record when Pedro started was under .500 this year.  Would we rather have him?  Of course, but they were actually a better team this year without him than with him.

Your take on Maine is accurate - but don't discount the homerun thing as "the only thing he does worse than Suppan" because it is a big deal - as we saw when Pujols hit two off him in August - but it is also what makes him tough.  He's got a good heater (approx 93 - 95 with late movement) and he's not afraid to use it.  It may result in a dinger or two - but it also avoid the big innings (strand rate).

I also agree - and you never know actually how it works - but that the Maine - Supp starts are the keys.  Carpenter gives you guys the egde, Glavine for the Mets (although not as big - let's face it, if Pedro and El duque are healthy, Glavine most likely starts game 3 instead of 1 - so he's not scaring many guys).

I think whoever wins game 2 or game 6 or both will win the series.

Good luck!

by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 11:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow, didn't know that
Under .500 with your $14m pitcher on the mound.  Ouch.

by sdrone on Oct 10, 2006 12:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

See Clemens, Roger
in 2005
The '06 Cardinals- The New '96 Cardinals? (Sorry, but I have to be real about our chances)

by Zubin on Oct 10, 2006 2:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm with you lboros
Just say no to Marquis.  Send him back to NJ to wath the series.  I didn't notice marquis in any of the nlds celebration film.

Also, I'm encouraged by LaRussa'a loose approach to this postseason.  He seems to be less-inclined to stress the importance of the details. - and more inclined to be smiling and merely hopeful in his approach.

That being said, I still think the fans expectations are still pretty high.  If the Cards look like they are tight or un-prepared (i.e. bad base-running, defensive errors) Tony should expect the criticism to be hot and heavy.  However, if the rooks play well, and we end up losing several close games, I think the average fan will be more receptive to losing the lcs.  

by _pistol_ on Oct 10, 2006 9:31 AM EDT   0 recs

Go Cards
The big choke was on, so it seemed
The laughter in Bristol had us steamed
But the Friars are blushing
And we're headed to Flushing
Having accomplished much more than we'd dreamed
"He was a man, take him for all in all, I shall not look upon his like again."

by iron duke75 on Oct 10, 2006 9:37 AM EDT   0 recs

With
all of these lefties, I'd really like to see Narvey on the roster for this series. And maybe with the breakout performance of the Brat Pack, Tony will see that these youngsers can do no wrong and add him and Reyes. Maybe...
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 9:39 AM EDT   0 recs

The Brat Pack
was incredible vs the Pads. However, I'm anxious to see if they can continue that success against the likes of Beltran and Delgado, as opposed to Brian Giles and Adrian Gonzales. I really hope so, i'd love to have them all as young, cheap staples for our bullpen next year.
Bengie Molina for 2007 Cardinals Catcher!

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 10, 2006 9:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But who would you leave off?
I hope he replaces Marquis with Reyes, but who's spot does Narvie take?  Looper, Hancock, Thompson, Kinney.  I could see leaving Looper off with his previous troubles against lefties, but don't know.

by Just Rope Ball on Oct 10, 2006 9:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You can't take...
Narv and Reyes and Weaver. Only 2 of the 3 can go.

TLR could leave Looper off, but that leaves the pen a bit thin. I'd take Narveson, b/c of the Mets weakness against lefties and his ability to start and relieve, and Reyes for game 4.

Weaver threw enough curveballs to tie up Gonzalez and Roberts and Bard, but I wouldn't send him out to face Delgado-Beltran-Floyd etc...

by guayzimi on Oct 10, 2006 10:04 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Lots of back-to-back games
In this series. I've been thining of Narveson as a long-man or third lefthander out of the bullpen. For those three consecutive games in St. Louis, we could use a third lefty, especially one who could stay in the game for a few innings to give everyone else a rest.

I don't think the choice would be Narveson vs Reyes or Weaver, but Narveson vs. Thompson or Looper. Who gives us a better chance to win the series? I've got nothing against Braden Looper but he doesn't stand to contribute much in this series, except Veteran Presence—and he can do that without holding down a spot on the active roster.

The Mets fans would be happy to see him warming up in the 'pen, though.

by liam on Oct 10, 2006 10:24 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I know it would never happen
but I'd leave off Marquis for Reyes and Taguchi for Narveson.

I know he had the homerun in the NLDS, and he's one of my favorite "guys" on the team, but really, what does So bring to the table?

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 10:25 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i would love to see narveson
but i didn't even consider the possibility because . . . . . well, you know, tony and rookies.

that and the fact that narveson's only got 9 innings of big-league experience. it'd be bold bold bold . . . . but i can't see it happening.

but yeah, it makes a ton of sense. no need to have both looper and thompson vs this lineup; leave one of em off (probably BT --- they're identical pitchers, and the clubhouse repercussions are prob'y worse if you boot looper) and you still have 4 right-handers in the bullpen. you don't need more than that vs this lineup; only lo duca and wright (and franco off the bench) demand an rhp matchup.

by lboros on Oct 10, 2006 11:28 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thompson and rookies
Thompson has been pretty effective against lefties in his short career; his splits are very similar.  Plus, I really like the way he pitched down the stretch.  I think it would be madness to leave him off the roster in favor of a minor league journeyman who made only 4 relief appearances all year, especially one who wasn't all that effective against lefties at AAA.

If someone were to get the boot, I am pretty sure it would be Hancock.

As for Tony and rookies, did you not see him turn the bullpen over to three rookies in the NLDS?  Geez...

by Speedy G on Oct 10, 2006 12:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Problem with
your scenario, Alex, is that If you drop Taguchi, he has to be replaced by a position player, not a pitcher.

by cardsrul on Oct 10, 2006 5:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

technically, yes
but that rule is bent all of the time
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 9:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Great analysis lboros
There's a bit of bad luck for us regarding Suppan as well. Floyd's replacement will likely be Endy Chavez, who bats .357 against Suppan vs Floyd's .190.
Enough pessimism...on the plus side with Sups, all of the Mets' heavy hitters (Beltran, Wright, Delgado, and Green) are hitting a paltry .176 against him in 54 ABs with 1HR. Gotta like those numbers!!

by cmat on Oct 10, 2006 9:47 AM EDT   0 recs

actually meant 68ABs
even better! I really need to check before I post.

by cmat on Oct 10, 2006 9:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Of course....
...the first time we have no Oswalt, Schilling, Pedro or whoever else, our lineup is the weakest its been in years.

But, if Juan, Belli continue to get clutch hits and Jimmy can get a few extra base hits and Rolen can do ANYTHING at all. WE might be primed for a couple early inning explosions.

by cardsfaninmass on Oct 10, 2006 9:48 AM EDT   0 recs

This
wait is KILLING ME. I don't think my liver can handle another 24 hours of "Limbo Drinking." Damn TV schedules...

by rockin redbird on Oct 10, 2006 9:58 AM EDT   0 recs

The more rest the pitchers get, the happier I am
perhaps they can rain out a few games, too

by Valatan on Oct 10, 2006 12:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

my suspicion is that
the longer this series goes the better....the Mets definitely don't want to see it get to Game 7 for Carp, and if there are rainouts Carp moves up....two rainouts and maybe Carp pitches three games....

by nota bene on Oct 10, 2006 3:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed
Look at a few of our really bad games this year. Marquis had quite a few. If he is off of the roster, those 5 to 7 blowout loses are gone. Also look at an injured Mulder who got shelled in his last outings, GONE. Ponson, GONE. Then you look at the production of the guys that we have left.

Carp, enough said. Suppan, what a horse. I will take him to battle any day. Weaver, started slow, but has done a lot better job then what I was expecting, and is turning a lot of heads in the process.

Then you go to the bullpen. Sosa, 3-10, enough said, GONE. Izzy was hurt so take away half of his blown saves. Wainy looks terrific, so I feel he could close out better then what Izzy was doing this season for another 10 games or so.

We have reduced the the playing time of people who were not producing (Marquis, Izzy, So, Miles), have gotten back our work horses who were hurt (Eck and Edmonds), and now we can use people like Miles, J-Rod, and So in bench situations for which they were intended. We have gotten back to the CARDINALS in which had the best record up to June. The team that just beat up on the Padres and the team, I think, could put out a very good Mets team.

Get excited Card fans, this team is coming around. They can do it, we need to show them we believe they can. GO CARDS!!!!

Play hard, play to win, but make it fun!

by Edmonds is baseball on Oct 10, 2006 10:04 AM EDT   0 recs

That's a very optimistic,
and yet realistic way to look at this.  Keep the suckiest guys off the field and you really have a different team!

As we all wait in dread of Marquis being given that game 4 start, I'm curious to know what the other players think of him, and whether that will be a deciding factor for LaDuncan?  I'm betting the players know Jason's the worst choice, and are probably fed up with his attitude.  Let's hope a few veterans are making the case for Reyes behind the scenes.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 10, 2006 10:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Reading VEB on a Mobile
I made a little website reader where you can just enter the url (in this case "vivaelbirdos.com") and it will display the site to you formated for your phone.

Here's a direct link: http://hellyeahbitch.com/mobile/?site=vivaelbirdos.com

by mfflynn on Oct 10, 2006 10:29 AM EDT   0 recs

My Thoughts on the series...
A few quick thoughts on the series match up:

1.    I would agree with most that Narveson would be a nice addition to the pen, since the lefties Flores and Johnson should expect a lot of work in this series. Moreover, with the presence of Weaver and Suppan, the specter of a blowout is not out of the realm of possibility, and having a pen member who can come in during a blowout and pitch 3-5 innings to keep it close and preserve pen depth would be invaluable. Reyes showed on the last day of the season he is not made for that long-relief role and that stands as perhaps the biggest reason Tony would stay with Marquis on the roster, as someone who can pitch game 4 and step up in long relief. Given the options for the last 2 in the pen being Looper, Narveson, Marquis or Reyes I would go with Narveson and Reyes. I attended the infamous Izzy game in NYC and when Looper pitched in the 8th that crowd was joyous at the sight of Looper entering the game and that's something I think would be a huge negative in a high-pressure NLCS game.

2.    The biggest key for this series for the Cardinal is continued bullpen success. This round will be tougher, with fewer off days, making it likely that the Met offense will get many opportunities to adjust to the Brats and very likely that the pen will need quality innings from folks like Thompson, Looper (if he is on the roster), and Hancock. Lets hope they are all up to the task.

3.    I know that Larry already shoved off plate discipline as a boilerplate key to the series, but I really think it deserves a lot more focus. All of us know that the Mets staff threw only approximately 13 and a third innings in the 3 game Dodgers series, for an average of approximately 4.5 innings a start. The remainder of those innings were thrown by the deep Met bullpen. In a 7 game series, with back to back games occurring regularly, that bullpen usage rate is a positive for the Cardinals, ensuring that the longer the series the more opportunities for Cardinal hitters to familiarize themselves with the Met bullpen, and everyone knows that familiarity is a relievers worst enemy.

This is where plate discipline becomes key. It is important for the Cardinal offense to keep the Met pitchers from going deep in games, taking pitches and wearing them out. Moreover, that discipline must carryover when facing the Met relievers, forcing Met relievers to rack up high pitch counts in their limited exposure, with the long term goal being to both become familiar with the pitchers, and to wear out the Met bullpen, especially during the 3 games in St. Louis. The Cardinals goal should be to get the Mets calling for the bullpen as often as possible over the course of the series.

4.    Finally, just from a series perspective, the Cards really do need a split of the first two NYC games. Without such a win, asking the Cards to take 4 out of 5 games from the Mets is a tall task. Better to spread out that order.

So long as the team is competitive and not blown out and embarrassed, like in 2000 and 2002, I will be happy with the series outcome.

by JMedwick on Oct 10, 2006 10:51 AM EDT   0 recs

working the count
I really don't see plate discipline as a key for the Cards in this series.  The Mets bullpen looks much better than their rotation, so there is not that much to be gained by getting the starters out early.  Sure, it bodes well if we can force their relievers to throw more innings, but if the NLDS was any indication, the Mets pen is going to see a lot of action regardless.

by Speedy G on Oct 10, 2006 12:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The last time Tony used the term 'push'
was Game 7 NLCS 2004.  That's promising.

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 10, 2006 11:03 AM EDT   0 recs

2 of 5
I was thinking the exact samething.  We need to stretch this series out to get back to Carpenter.  Even if we go down 0-2 in New York, my feeling is that we still have a chance to make it.  Swiping one in New York is just a bonus.  

by BigJawnMize on Oct 10, 2006 11:15 AM EDT   0 recs

If we steal game 1
there is going to be a whole lot of MO shifted on our side.

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 10, 2006 11:18 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I have great deal of hope.....
that the boys will do just that. If Weaver can come close to his last performance, then we have a chance to really tee off on Glavine; personally I hope we do him just like Pittsburgh did in the playoffs many years ago....I think they scored 7 in the first, and put 9 on him in one and two-thirds. "wouldn't it be lovely"?

So, I have hope.......maybe not confidence, but hope.

by fuegophil on Oct 10, 2006 11:48 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Glavine has been rounding into form too....
Dating back to Sept. 7 and running through the Division Series, he's made six starts, going 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA.

Should make for a solid game 1 pitching matchup.

And our boy has a world series MVP in his pocket too but that wont make his pitches any harder to hit! lol

by PondScumFan on Oct 10, 2006 11:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Could make it harder to pitch
if he carries that trophy around in his pocket.

by Just Rope Ball on Oct 10, 2006 11:55 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Alright!
Another Mets fan.  Good to see you are aboard.  

by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 12:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd love for..
vintage Mulder.  The Mets blogger said they have trouble with LHP.  Could you imagine Carp, Vintage Mulder and Soups?  
Ahh...what might have been.
"Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer." - Ted Williams

by WiscCard on Oct 10, 2006 11:28 AM EDT   0 recs

But this is the series for injuries
Mets:

Pedro
El Duque
Floyd
Sanchez

Cards:

Mulder
Izzy
Edmonds / Rolen / Eckstein (we'll count as one since they can play at 75% strength or so)

I guess the one thing we know is that if these teams can advance so depleted, they definitely were the two best teams in a crappy NL.

by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 11:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not Quite
I was at that game - Izzy actually had to enter the game with the bases loaded and 1 out in the 9th.  Believe it or not, he got both outs without allowing anything.

Talk about an anomoly for the season - Mulder and Izzy dominating a tough offense in a 1-0 game.

by Robb on Oct 10, 2006 12:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You're right...
I forgot, Izzy struck out David Wright to end the game.
Bengie Molina for 2007 Cardinals Catcher!

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 10, 2006 12:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Key to Winning
I believe the key for the Cards to win is to get Pujols up w/ men on base.  If he gets up w/ no one it neutralizes the biggest weapon in the game.  Thus, Eckstein and Wilson/Duncan are key.

by nickmcg on Oct 10, 2006 11:34 AM EDT   0 recs

NLCS thoughts
Lots of good, interesting reading on here yesterday and today.  I'll add in my thoughts.

As many others have pointed out, it seems that we may have a slight edge in starting pitching.  If we could steal away game 1, I think our chances of winning would be pretty good.  I have been impressed with Weaver's progress from his first couple of starts for us.  He seems to be rounding back into the competent pitcher he was prior to his LAAA days.

Getting to the Mets bullpen is both good news and bad news.  They have been very good.  But they also got a ton of work in the LDS.  In, I think it was Maine's start, Randolph used up half his pen getting four outs in the 4/5 or maybe it was 5/6 innings.  I thought for a bit he was going to run out of pitchers before the game ended.  If our starters can continue to go 7, I think this may end up another edge for the Cards.

Of course, the Mets lineup is scary.  I was very encouraged by Suppan's line against them, however.  If he is on, and our batters aren't bumfuzzled by the kid Maine, we might just have two wins there.

Lastly, please, oh please, let Reyes start game 4.  The Mets have never seen him, which gives him an advantage (at least it would if the Cards were batting against him, they seem to never do well against an unfamiliar pitcher.)  HWWNBN starting in Busch III would completely take the crowd out of the game.  Not something you want.

All in all, the Mets, certainly, are the favorites, but I hope, and think, that it will be competitive and we just might pull it off if a couple of things fall our way.

BTW, any word on whether Rolen ever took that cortisone injection?  It would seem to have needed to happen Sunday for him to be available Wed.

by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 11:37 AM EDT   0 recs

Rolen getting injected today
Bengie Molina for 2007 Cardinals Catcher!

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 10, 2006 11:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Today!?!
I thought a player normally had to sit out a couple of days after an injection.  Why did they not do it yesterday?

Does that mean Speez will start games 1 & 2?

by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 12:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think...
...that is more for optimal performance.  You can play almost immediately with a cortizone shot, the problem is that you are just numb.  You really don't get enough feeling back in the area of a shot for a day to really know how it is going to act.  Rolen's shoulder could be starting right field by itself and Scott would have no clue.

by BigJawnMize on Oct 10, 2006 12:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Have you seen...
Rolen's numbers v Glavine?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/bvsp?playerId=1975&teamId=24

The rest of the starters hit him pretty well, as you can see.  Edmonds hasn't, but at least gets on base.

I hope Scott is well enough to start.  Spiezio should get the start in left.

 

youneverknow

by meat on Oct 10, 2006 2:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow,
some of those lines (Rolen, Enc, Pujols) look mighty impressive and not a real small sample size for those three either.

P-Dub shouldn't get the start, it appears, so either
Speez, as suggested, or, if Rolen is a no/go (I sure hope not with a shot + 3 days off & those #'s), go ahead and give lil' Dunc a shot?

by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 2:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd try Speez in left...
if he's not playing third... Glavine is exactly the kind of pitcher that gives Dunc probs... experienced, lots of breaking pitches, good control, lefty...

by guayzimi on Oct 10, 2006 2:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Right,
but what if Spezio has to play third, then do you put Wilson with his career .200 BA against Glavine out there or take a chance with Duncan (who, apparently doesn't have an offical AB against Glavine.)  (Also, I'm leaving So out of the mix for now, his career line is even worse than Wilson's at .111)

by ArkansasTravs on Oct 10, 2006 2:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe...
Looking at those stats a creative lineup might be:

Eck
Rolen
Albert
Edmonds
Juan
Belly
Spez/Willson/Duncan (pick which ever, I say Spez)
molina
Weaver

Rolen's shoulder might be hurt, but man, he draws a ton of walks off of Glavin, which would be a great fit infront of Albert.

by JMedwick on Oct 10, 2006 3:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

blog on a phone
I really would suggest going with something that uses palm software rather than windows mobile 5.0.  I have a treo 650 with a browser called blazer developed by palm. I tried a mobile with the windows format and it seems like the palm system pulls up the sites MUCH faster. It was taking about 10 min. to get VEB or any others but with the palm its about 30 second. I have followed every game that I've been to right from my seats in section 171 here on VEB. the pop-up blocker and virus protection is unmatched. And remember, these high dollar phones are NOT insurable through your cell provider because of the possibility of downloading a virus.  It seems to me that most of the bad things out there on the internets are formatted for a windows operating system, and palm IMHO has sidestepped that quite nicely. No I do not work for palm. Oh and Goooooooooooo  CARDS!

by snortyclaus on Oct 10, 2006 11:46 AM EDT   0 recs

re: viruses
The likelihood of you getting a virus on your cell phone is very very small.  So few people actually do web browsing on their phone that there's not really a significant enough population to spread that kind of virus.  Even though a phone runs "Windows" it's not running on the same kind of processor as a traditional PC, so executables will have no effect onit.

As far as the speed of rendering the pages, there could be any number of reasons for why the two phones differ.  Windows Mobile does have more overhead than Palm OS but it also has significantly richer media and application support.  If you use Opera on your Windows Mobile based phone it would probably work just as well as the Palm.

I don't own either phone (my cell phone is just a cell phone ...) but thought I should clear some of that up.

by dontEATnachos on Oct 10, 2006 12:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

phone
when I had the windows phone it came equipped with opera mini but for some reason I just couldn't get the speed to come close. Also the windows system would shoot you to mobile formatted sites whereas the palm takes me to the real deal just minus a little popup. Also I have no clue how an actual puter works so I may be completely wrong, but for a novice, the palm is for me. The only thing I can't do is paste links onto my posts & download more than 2 MB at a time directly from the phone. But if you try asking any of the guys at the retail store it's a lost cause cuz none of them have any of the upper end phones. I'm just going to wait until my kid turns 4 and then have it explained to me then.

by snortyclaus on Oct 10, 2006 1:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Too much to carry
Even if I had one of those phancy phones, I'd have to keep it in my pocket. It's hard enough juggling beers, nachos and a scorecard. I'm not coordinated enough to deal with phoneblogging too.

by 26thMan on Oct 10, 2006 2:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

from the sports guy
For some reason, some baseball managers mistakenly believe that they're playing chess, when they're really playing checkers most of the time. That's the Tony La Russa Syndrome, when a manager tries too many things in an effort to remind everyone that, "Hey, I'm a very important man performing a very important job here!"

pretty funny.

by PGeorge on Oct 10, 2006 11:47 AM EDT   0 recs

Taguchi homered off Linebrink
The Cards scored off the Padres' bullpen in game 3 on Taguchi's HR.  Also, while Meredith wasn't charged with any earned runs, he was on the mound when four runs scored in game 4.

While I agree that the Padres and Mets had the best bullpens during the regular season, that Mets bullpen gave up 8 runs in 13 1/3 innings against the Dodgers.

Glavine was the only Mets starter to qualify for a win.  If the Mets bullpen logs such heavy innings against the Cards for 6-7 games, I like our chances.

by Speedy G on Oct 10, 2006 11:50 AM EDT   0 recs

thanks for the analysis, lb
great as always

go cards!

by Jocephus on Oct 10, 2006 12:09 PM EDT   0 recs

NLCS
I'm going to eat this elephant one bite at a time.  I'm rooting for the Cards to split in New York, take 2 of 3 in St. Louis, and split in New York.  It's not going to be easy, but it's possible.  

Of those three mini-goals, the first one seems to be the toughest.  No Carpenter for us, no Oliver Perez for them.  

Of course, if Marquis is starting Game 4, the 2 of 3 at home challenge becomes much more difficult.

by Robb on Oct 10, 2006 12:21 PM EDT   0 recs

Lboros
Good work. Thanks for all the info. One question..when he asked your favorite Cardinal, how did you NOT say Anthony Reyes? ;)
SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Oct 10, 2006 12:34 PM EDT   0 recs

The Kid...
Ok all year wrong I have been waiting for the Kid to show me some consistency, or show me the hype is real. So if he goes in Game 4 I hope he'll step up like the others...My gut says this series could get ugly...My heart says go birds..make us believe...

Id love to See both NY teams out of it a small market world series...A's Cards or tigers cards would be great...

by punchinjudy on Oct 10, 2006 12:58 PM EDT   0 recs

Cards v. Tigers
would be a balls world Series.

Reyes getting a win in Game 4 would be the thing that Cardinals legends are made of. I'm getting goosebumps just thinking about it.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 1:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I have been
very skeptical of him..He got alot of hype more so than AW, but I have liked what I saw from AW since about mid season...Now AW is getting hype, but i think he has delievered...a Game 4 win out of reyes against NY would def ease my worries about him...Oh and i didnt use th elast game of the saeson against reyes..I feel for a rook going on 3 days thats tough, its tough for vets

by punchinjudy on Oct 10, 2006 1:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Are you serious?
Payrolls of playoff teams:

Yankees - 194 million
Mets -    101.0 million
Dodgers - 98.4 million
Cardinals - 88.9 million
Tigers - 82.6 million
Padres - 69.8 million
Twins -  63.3 million
A's -    62.2 million

The Cards are a lot closer to the Mets than they are to the A's (at #11 overall) and Cards fans have been complaining all year that Dewitt didn't spend any money or make any real trades at the deadline.  Please don't call any world series with the Cardinals in it a small market world series.  You are just embarrassing yourself.

by Nails on Oct 10, 2006 1:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

small market
but not small payroll
Cheers

by Alxfritz on Oct 10, 2006 1:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He said "small market" team.
..not "low payroll" team.

The Cardinals ARE in one of the smallest metro markets in MLB.

Oakland-StL WOULD be a "small market" Worl Series.

Please don't confuse "small market" and "low payroll"---often, the two have very little to do with each other.

Some teams are owned by billionaires (A's, Twins, etc.) who choose not to spend more on the team.

Other teams (Texas, Philly) in relatively large markets for whatever reason are unable (or unwilling) to capitalizexon the resources of the market---often a sign of poor management.

by salvomania on Oct 10, 2006 1:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What I don't get about this
How is Oakland not in San Fransisco's media market?  I've always thought of them as "large market, small payroll"

by Valatan on Oct 10, 2006 1:49 PM EDT to parent up