FanPost

Assessing the Braves

I'd give us a 55% chance of seeing the Braves in the post-season. Assuming the Cards finish with the NL's best record, I'd put my money on the hot, hot Astros taking out the Braves in the NLDS (like last year), the Cards (like last year) smashing the Western Champ, and (unlike last year) making mincemeat of the 'Stros in this years' NLCS.

But because the Stros are a much less forbidding team than last year, in a rematch the Braves might be able to throw water on them, and we could have a Braves-Cards NLCS. With that situation in mind, I thought I'd share some observations about Ted's Team that I've absorbed by virtue of living around their fans.

(1) No True Closer: As last night showed, the Braves' foremost weakness is their closer, or rather their lack of one. Cards fans likely were more suprised at the 9th inning miracle come-back than were Braves fans, who have seen this kind of defeat-snatched-from-the-jaws-of-victory scenario many times before.

(2) Deceptively Effective Line-Up: The Braves don't have a lot of big mashers, and they are solidly middle-of-the-pack in terms of league batting statistics. Even so, they have a knack for timely hitting. K.Johnson and LaRoche bring down their average, but Francoeur (in place of Mondesi) and Betemit (in Chipper's slot) seem capable of putting up serious numbers for the remainder of the season. Add those unfamiliar names to Furcal, Giles, and, of course, A.Jones, and you've got enough gas to once again motor off with the NL East, even without Chipper.

(3) Question Marks in the Rotation: Hampton is apparently out for season, and who knows about Thomson. That leaves the Braves relying on Sosa, Davies, and Ramirez to round out their rotation. With his 7-1, 2.36 ERA record, Sosa has filled in nicely. Although the other two have winning records, they have ERAs above 4, similar to Suppan and Marquis.

In sum, the Braves' offense has performed above the expectations I had for them in March, while their pitching is well beneath them. With the apparently strong Smoltz, Sosa, Hudson triumverate, it's also a much tougher team in a best-of-five than a best-of-seven series.

I think a Houston/Atlanta NLDS would be very interesting, but I only can conjecture since the Braves completed all of their games with Houston in early May. I give Houston the edge due to superior power (Biggio-Berkman-Ensberg) and a superior pen (Lidge). I like our chances against both, but next time, how about a better job against Sosa, eh?