Game 82 Open Thread: July 4, 2005

by lboros on Jul 4, 2005 9:55 AM EDT in News Comment 22 comments

typing in enormous haste --- my cyberbots let me down, so i'm writing this at a hotel-reservations computer. and the desk clerk will be back any second, so here goes. couple quick thoughts:

mulder: didn't see him throw, but as i said last time --- sometimes 10 runners in 6 innings is 1 run, and sometimes it's 4 or 5. and either way, i'll take it. he got deep into the game, kept the cards in it; not "ace" like but i for one have let go of that. he ain't an ace, and the trade was a bad one; water under the bridge. i'll take this sort of outing from him every five days and he'll be contributing to the team. come october, we expose him as little as possible and rely on matty mo, carp, and the pen.
the trade market: per joe strauss's article in the post day before last, the cards will be active and daring in the market. bravo. a starting pitcher may go --- as long as it isn't morris, i'm fine w that --- and an outfielder or reliever may arrive. the 10.5-game lead is irrelevant; we need to tool up for the postseason, and jock sees it and is on the case. should be very interesting. personally i love trade rumors and trade discussion --- the idler, the better --- and am soliciting any and all ideas from you re: which rumored trades do you like? which do you think are madness? also some your own trade ideas, who you'd like to see in stl for the stretch/postseason.

today's matchup: morris (9-1, 3.31) vs brandon webb (8-4, 3.24). webb has been a fine pitcher for three years or so and nobody's noticed. be interesting to see if we can get to him for 4 or 5 runs.

ok here's the desk clerk ---- oh shit, and the hotel detective's with him! hey wait, i'm not done fellas, just lemme have a few mo fsdlkasdi

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The Kentuckian in me

really wants to see a trade made for Austin Kearns. I don't think he's ever been properly used by the Reds... especially now when he's in AAA here in Louisville.
On the flip side... he has been extremely unlucky with a variety of injuries in his career.

As much as I loved watching him in AAA... I would rather not trade for Adam Dunn. His defense could be a huge liability when it matters most. He is also going to require some fairly large money... whereas Kearns could be had for much less.

Bullpen wise... there's always Joey Table. The Pirates can usually be had for less than we want to give.

by Matt on Jul 4, 2005 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the reds are

being run by a bunch of idiots these days. they apparently are looking for some major value in any trade for him, despite the fact they've devalued the guy by basically saying he's not a major-leaguer . . . . if you could get him on the cheap, great pickup. but if he costs you anything, i dunno . . . .

by lboros on Jul 5, 2005 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

Unless they think he's fixable, I'd rather get rid of Mulder than Marquis or Suppan - they've been much more consistent.

by SirVLCIV on Jul 4, 2005 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

how can you

give up on Mulder after only 3 months into the season? has he lived up to the hype? no, but that doesn't necessarily mean you dump him. if he doesn't pan out by the end of the season, do what they did with pat hentgen...say thx for the effort, but your services are no longer required. sup has been the subject of numerous trade rumors over the last year(but then what else is new?), marquis...i think he just needs a swift kick in the ass, like maybe have him miss a start. tlr can always have one of his infamous bullpen starts. would i be surprised to see either of these two traded? not at all, but that means they'll have to get a starter in return, right? unless they think wainwright is ready to pitch. there's no question they need another OF, but who can they go after that would be willing to be a part-timer for 2+ months? i'm not all that enamored with kearns in all honesty. i think preston wilson would want to play everyday, so is he really a viable candidate? do they go after someone like aubrey huff, maybe? he might be an option.

by cardsrul on Jul 4, 2005 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

bring on the red menace

i'm very bullish on both dunn and kearns. as much as we need to start eyeing october, we also have to start thinking about 2006 without walker, sanders, and a jedmonds who may miss 15-40 games a year. yes, kearns has been disappointing the last couple years, and no, you don't really love a guy who seems to have grown flabby and unmotivated. however... where else is jocketty going to find talent with that big of an upside who isn't prohibitively expensive? i think the guy just needs a change of scenery, and then he'll start thumping to the tune of a .550 SLG. it's a gamble, but pennants are won on the strength of prudent gambles.

and dunn? well, i'd give up anthony reyes for him, and then some. dunn will hit 500 homers in his career, and reyes -- well, he might be a future #1. and then again he might not.

Brian Gunn

by briangunn on Jul 4, 2005 2:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

picture this with Dunn:

What if we can get Dunn and then sign him long term? I'd like the look of this:

2006 St. Louis Cardinals Opening Day Lineup

Eckstein
Edmonds
Pujols
Dunn
Rolen
Sanders (assuming he's resigned)
Grudzielanek (ditto)
Molina
Carpenter

by matty fred on Jul 4, 2005 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

put me in the

anti-dunn camp. to my eye he's got all the signs of a flameout player who came into the league with a limited skill set and will age quickly. he's getting paid $4.6m this year; what will it take to sign him going forward, and will he be worth it? i'm leery

by lboros on Jul 5, 2005 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and another thing

the yankees, dodgers, and cubs are all inquiring about dunn ---- the cubs with a fair degree of desperation. that may drive the exchange rate up into pretty high-risk territory.

by lboros on Jul 5, 2005 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm...

yes, dunn has a limited skill set, but that skill set -- tremendous patience, tremendous power -- usually ages quite nicely. besides, the guy's only 24 years old and he's been a productive major leaguer for years. when exactly will he start showing his age? it certainly won't be any sooner than some of the other names mentioned: matsui (32 yrs old), encarnacion (29), huff (28), mench (27), or dellucci (31).

lance nix and wily mo pena are both quite young, and possibly redundant on their teams. but nix's OBP is womackian, and pena simpy isn't the player that dunn is. among the so-called "available" players i just can't think of one who would age better than dunn.

Brian Gunn

by briangunn on Jul 5, 2005 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

brian we could both

support our opinions by going to baseball reference.com's list of similar hitters for dunn. scroll down and look at similar hitters thru age 24 --- #1 is reggie jackson, #2 daryl strawberry. the list also includes mvp winners boog powell, jose canseco, and jeff burroughs. that's to your side.

to my side: check out how short all these careers were. strawberry's last good season came at age 29. canseco's last good year came at age 31, and he was out of the league by 36. powell never slugged .500 after 28 and was out of the league at 34; ben greive's last good season was age 24; he's now 29 and at the fringes of the league. burroughs and incaviglia were relegated to platoon status in their late 20s, supposedly the peak years for most players.

which is exactly my concern about dunn --- the normal trajectory of career development doesn't apply to players like him. his body is 25 years old, but the player inside is more like 32. when the body ages to 29, the player inside is 36 --- a sunsetting player.

by lboros on Jul 5, 2005 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

point granted

i think we've been looking at this slightly differently. i think it's eminently possible that dunn will hit a wall around age 30, as you say. but that's 5 years away, by which point most of our huge stars will be broken down or gone (pujols being the notable exception). i don't want the cards to completely mortgage the farm, but i'd take 5 years from a great player, surrounded by this great cast, and take advantage of this window of opportunity to win a championship.

contrast that thinking with, say, the minnesota twins, who always have good teams, but never do anything splashy or risky to really upgrade their team and flat-out go for it. even if dunn follows the career trajectory of guys like strawberry and powell, i still think he's a valuable asset.

Brian Gunn

by briangunn on Jul 5, 2005 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bill james used to

call this "eating the cake" --- ie, the team that develops the player "bakes" the cake, and the team that gets stuck with the outlandish salary in the player's declining years "pays for" the cake --- but the team that gets the player in his prime "eats" the cake. so whoever has dunn for the next 3-5 years may get a nice big fat slice of some damn good cake.

i'd probably be more interested in acquiring him if the deal occurred in the offseason, as opposed to midseason. he solves a long-term problem, and my own bias in a year like this is toward the short-term (ie october). you never know, dunn may slip through the trade season this year without moving.

the red reporter does an excellent job of covering the reds and their roster machinations.

by lboros on Jul 5, 2005 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mench

Two words: Kevin Mench

by VanRam on Jul 4, 2005 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i like

your thinking ryan. mench is an up and comer whose name i have seen in trade rumors.

by cardsrul on Jul 4, 2005 4:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i like this guy

too. don't know what tx would want for him; can't find diddly about him in pro sports daily's trade rumors section. anybody know what it would take to free this guy up?

by lboros on Jul 5, 2005 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why would Texas be selling?

They are relatively close in the playoff hunt? If I were them, I would think that Hidalgo would be the albatross that they're trying to sell... that outfield doesn't look too good after they are rid of mench or delucci.

My guess is that a trade with the rangers would require Marquis at the minimum, and I don't think having a fourth outfielder is worth Marquis unless we're getting someone better than Sanders/Walker back

by Valatan on Jul 5, 2005 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my impression

is that texas views itself as at best a fringe playoff team, and they have a lot of payroll issues moving forward --- hence want to get younger and cheaper. kenny rogers' name has been bandied about in trade rumors, even before he went batty on cameramen, and alfonso soriano is also being shopped. or so the finest scribes in this land have reported . . . .

and speaking of hidalgo --- what in heaven's name happened to that player? he has gone from being a dangerous lineup anchor into an utterly worthless roster dingleberry in two years' time

by lboros on Jul 5, 2005 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

okey dokey

just got back from weekend festivities in enemy territory (Chicago--I lived there from 85-90 and have friends there who put on a humdinger 4th party every year--though it was last night this year). most of my old pals there are Flub fans, acourse, and boy, are they a buncha sad sacks--I think they'd tear Dusty Baker limb from limb if they could get aholda him. anyway, today is also my 45th birthday, and I got just what I wanted--a Bird win and a Flub loss resulting in an 11.5 game lead. just when I (and their own fans) think the Flubs are getting dangerous, they oblige us by losing 5 in a row. c'mon Birds, keep the heat on now and you might come back from AS break with a 15 game lead or better. THAT would certainly calm a lot of our fear-driven cynicism. we'll see, but it can be done. for today, thank you Matty and thank you Kerry Wood.

by rockin redbird on Jul 4, 2005 10:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs