Quick question - is this a statistic?

by SirVLCIV on Jul 20, 2005 9:38 PM EDT

Ok, my girlfriend and I were discussing the topic of earned runs while watching the Yankees' game - how the Yankees' starter left in the 6th with 1 out, man on 1st and 2nd. Reliever promptly allows a double and a walk before getting the other two outs (one earned run for the starter, none for the reliever).

Now, how about this idea: Starter gets 3 total bases (not 2 total bases for two walks, but 3 for man on second and man on third) and reliever gets tagged for 7 total bases (man from home, 1st and 2nd each advancing 2 bases, man from home advancing to 1st on a walk).

Any idea if this could be a beneficial stat? I know 'total bases' exists, in adding 1 for singles and walks, 2 for doubles, etc., but I was thinking a better way of negotiating this iffy topic of 'earned runs' might be better.

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That always bugged me too

seems like when an inherited runner scores from first, the reliever should suffer most of the penalty for that. One thing I kinda thought would be good to deal with this is to split up the ER's--so if an inherited runner scores from first, the pitcher leaving the game gets .25 of an ER, while the relieving pitcher gets .75 of it, half and half for a runner coming in from second, etc.

Of course, this would be complicated when a reliever allows a runner to advance, and then leaves the game, with a second reliever allowing the runner to score, but I think that could be fixed pretty well with another convention...

by Valatan on Jul 21, 2005 12:07 AM EDT reply actions

long ago

there was discussion of charging the run to the relief pitcher if he inherited a runner at 1st base who later scored. but they scrapped it for the very reason valatan mentioned --- parsing the responsibility could get very confusing. if mulder leaves with a man on 1st, and then reyes comes in and gets a groundout advancing the guy to 2d, and then king gives up a hit that scores the run, who gets charged? under the "reform" scenario, the run would get charged to reyes, since he inherited a runner at 1st base who later scored. but reyes is the only guy in this sequence who did his job . . . . . in the end they decided it was too complicated, and moreover starting pitchers' eras would take a sudden drop and screw up the record book.

but there is a stat out there which does the same basic thing you describe: win probability added, or wpa. in the yankee scenario that sir vlciv described, wpa would penalize the reliever for his sins, but the number is expressed not in bases or runs but probability --- ie, measuring how much the reliever subtracted from his team's probability of winning the game. the baseball prospectus web site tracks this throughout the year; here's a link to the current mlb leaders:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=52

the cardinals have three relievers in the top 30 in this category: izzy #6, tavarez #12, reyes #30.

by lboros on Jul 21, 2005 11:13 AM EDT reply actions

WPA

Suffers in a lot of scenarios from lack of sample size, however. But yeah, I get the idea. In that situation, I would have charged the starter .25, Reyes .25, and King .5 earned runs.

by SirVLCIV on Jul 21, 2005 9:36 PM EDT reply actions

but why does reyes

get charged anything? he kept his man off base and notched an out, both of which prevent runs. he shouldn't be penalized just because a baserunner happened to move up on the groundball.

by lboros on Jul 22, 2005 10:43 AM EDT reply actions

But...

If the starter allows a triple, and then a grounder, scoring the run, you could say the same thing - the batter didn't reach base, and he got an out, but the run still scored.

by SirVLCIV on Jul 22, 2005 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

but the starter

did allow the triple --- that's why the run counts against him. in the example above, al reyes comes in and makes a significant contribution toward run prevention, yet his era for that appearance would reflect the opposite. . . .

there's probably no perfect way to go --- under any scenario somebody probably gets charged with runs that are somebody else's fault

by lboros on Jul 22, 2005 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I've got a better scenario

Starter in, bottom of the 6th, nobody out. Bunt single by a speedy Juan Pierre. Steals second on a bad throw by Mahoney. Steals third on a bad throw by Mahoney. (Note, steals are usually on the pitcher, so we'll pretend the pitcher's doing the best of holding the runner as possible), groundout scores the runner.

That's an earned run that should be .50 earned runs in my new 'idea'.

by SirVLCIV on Jul 22, 2005 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions

hmm

I don't really see things as a 'punish the pitcher' situation - what this would allow, if you spread the earned runs around into component parts (and I also don't think it should be just earned runs, but potential earned runs also - you allow three straight singles to load the bases, that's 1.5 'potential earned runs' allowed.

Then one could break this down into component parts - what's the reliever's ability when he comes in with man on first, nobody out. Man on second, nobody out, etc., compared to other pitchers who have notched at least x like situations.

Just a random idea, and I doubt I'll pursue it, but it's interesting.

by SirVLCIV on Jul 22, 2005 11:31 AM EDT reply actions

ERAs

are a fair way to judge starting pitchers, but I tend to ignore them for relievers... Among the "standard" stats I look at for the bullpen is opponent's batting average, number of inherited runners allowed to score, and BB/K ratio.

I haven't quite got my mind wrapped around many of the "SABRmetric" stats for pitchers yet (What da heck is WHIP, anyway?) Oh, well, I finally figured out why OPS is a better metric for offensive production than the "Triple Crown" stats (BA, HR, RBI.) I think Prince Albert has the right idea... he wants to lead the league in runs scored, which is, after all, the ultimate desired result of any offense!

by The Ol Goaler on Jul 22, 2005 7:53 PM EDT reply actions

Ya

I never much liked "stats" that can't be simply calculated from a box score, and aren't defined with an equation. I never can get a handle on what VORP is, really. How does one obtain those numbers, or what a replacement player is in getting these numbers? Are they using some sort of statistical distribution?

Though I've always wanted to sit down and work out all the conditional probabilities for win percentages.

by Valatan on Jul 27, 2005 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions

WHIP....

I'm with you Goaler, don't quite understand many of the others. But I can help you with WHIP, which I think you will find is a good one for relievers, if you look at Opp BA.

Whip is Hits + walk / IP....

So if Izzy comes in and throws one inning and gives up two hits and a walk then he has a WHIP of a three.

Fantasy baseball stat.

by Brock20 on Jul 23, 2005 3:05 PM EDT reply actions