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busted blockbuster

well, so much for that rumor . . . . i think.

joe strauss's article this morning reports that the cards' efforts to acquire javier vazquez have crashed -- a sopping wet blanket on the rumor posted here last night that had jocketty offering marquis, suppan, and two prospects (prob'y wainwright and lambert) for vazquez and coveted outfield prospect carlos quentin. seems likely that pzonehitter, who posted the rumor, received information that was a few hours old -- hence no longer operative by the time he got it up at VEB. that might explain pzone's reference to re-signing grudzielanek, a viable intiative for most of the day but a defunct one by 10pm central, when pzone posted his diary.

but it's very possible that pzone's story was accurate -- just not timely. (i've got another inquiry pending with him to see what he thinks of the strauss story.) as i noted last night, the putative trade was consistent with numerous published reports about the cards' heavy interest in vazquez; it also gibed with whispers i'd heard on tuesday that the failure to sign burnett might force the cards to consider trading cherished prospects (specif., lambert and wainwright). and an early-edition version of strauss's article (posted here) stated this: "The Diamondbacks expressed interest in minor league pitching, including Memphis starter Adam Wainwright and former No. 1 draft pick Chris Lambert." that line got edited out later, when the p-d updated the article to reflect the king for bigbie and miles deal.

if you went to bed at a decent hour last night, you've got some catch-up reading to do. . . . .

anyway, that outtake-sentence lends some credence to pzone's story. it's possible that at 4 pm the cards and dbacks were discussing the vazquez-quentin deal, or something like it -- and maybe that's the hour at which pzone received his information. exit pzone; then, some time later, the cards ask the dbacks to kick a few million bucks into the deal, and the dbacks say nyooooooo. crash, burn.

all speculation. but we should hope that pzone's story had some truth to it. because if the trade he described was ever close to going down, that would be a sign that jocketty hasn't resigned himself to filling out the roster with cheap retreads. this would be a very bold move, and it would make sense on a number of levels:

  • the cards would be moving two players who are bound for free agency in 2007
  • they'd be getting one of the top 10 or 15 prospects in the game, quentin
  • they'd be adding the young outfielder they desperately need
  • they'd be adding a productive ev'yday player making the league minimum, providing several years of payroll relief
  • they'd be adding a power pitcher
heretofore i have not been enthusiastic about javy vazquez, who strikes me as matt morris at twice the price -- but if he comes attached to carlos quentin i'm a hell of a lot more interested. vazquez's career record is 89-93, his era a pedestrian 4.28. but he does strike guys out (career 7.8 per 9 innings), and he's durable -- at least 32 starts in each of the last 6 years, with innings totals ranging from 198 to 232. he's also the type of hurler duncan has had success with -- a veteran who already knows how to pitch and just needs a little fine-tuning (see woody williams, chris carpenter, darryl kile, etc etc.).

it was only a rumor, so believe it or don't. i can tell you that the putative trade did pass the payroll test, bringing the club in at right about the $90m limit:

2006 ROSTER MATRIX
SCENARIO #8: VAZQUEZ AND QUENTIN

STARTING 8 BENCH ROTATION PEN
molina c
$400K
bigbie of
$400K
carpenter rhp
$5m
is'hausen rhp
$8.5m
pujols 1b
$14m
rodriguez of
$350K
mulder lhp
$7.5m
looper rhp
$1.5m
jimenez 2b
$800K
luna if
$330K
vazquez rhp
$11.5m
flores lhp
$400K
rolen 3b
$11m
cruz if
$800K
morris rhp
$7.5m
dotel rhp
$1.5m
eckstein ss
$3.5m
bennett c
$600K
an reyes rhp
$320K
ty johnson lhp
$320K
quentin lf
$320K
gall 1b-of
memphis
thompson rhp
$350K
edmonds cf
$12m
schumaker of
memphis
warm body
$320k
taguchi rf
$1m
miles if
memphis
lincoln rhp
pumping gas
TOTAL
$43m
TOTAL
$2.5m
TOTAL
$31.8m
TOTAL
$13m
OVERALL PAYROLL: $90.3m

the batting order would likely be:

eckstein ss
quentin lf
pujols 1b
edmonds cf
rolen 3b
taguchi rf
molina c
jimenez 2b

if the strauss article is true, by the way, it's one more instance of the stl ownership's stinginess -- because strauss implies that the talks broke down over the cards' demand for a cash kick-in from the dbacks. when arizona refused, the cards walked away from the table -- just like they walked away from giles, burnett, grudzielanek, and others this offseason. miklasz has some some choice words for dewitt & co this morning. . . . .

will update as soon as i hear from pzonehitter . . . .

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Not to get political but...
Mr. Dewitt is an oil man, much in the mold of Mr. Bush.  Oil men and energy hawks (aka Mr. Cheney and Haliburton, Enron, etc) are interested in windfall profits and will do whatever it takes to get there.  This is mostly in response to the Miklasz article over at stltoday.com.  My point is, we should have known what we were getting with Mr. Dewitt the second we learned his background.
Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Dec 8, 2005 8:18 AM EST reply actions  

Well you did get political
And that's just ridiculous.  I guess the price of gasoline has gone down lately because oil men like Dewitt suddenly decided they weren't interested in profits, right?  Or maybe, just maybe, there's a marketplace at work.  And let's not forget exactly how much better Dewitt and company have been as stewards of the franchise than Anheuser Busch was in the early 90's.

by dccardsfan on Dec 8, 2005 1:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Better but...
are falling short when we need them to give Jock the cash to put the team over the top.
I was simply agreeing with Bernie's article, that Cardinals fans have had blind faith that the increases in revenues would lead to increased payroll, thus increasing our chances of winning a title.  I am saying it is a mind set that we should have expected.
Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Dec 8, 2005 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Well...
Now Wilkerson is gone too. Part of the Soriano to the Nationals deal. This suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks. Sucks like Larry Bigbie.

by WhackCuzzi on Dec 8, 2005 9:20 AM EST reply actions  

Well
Now that the Rangers have Wilkerson, maybe they would be willing to part with Dellucci? His OBP looks mighty tasty.

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 8, 2005 9:39 AM EST up reply actions  

They've
been shopping Mench, so he's a possibility.

by cardsrul on Dec 8, 2005 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

lboros
there is way too little time between your last post of last night and your first post this morning.  I, for one, am glad I slept through this rumor. I've had enough in the way of dashed expectations this week.
DCGreg

by DCGreg on Dec 8, 2005 9:40 AM EST reply actions  

I HAVE A QUENTIN, WHY IS DEWITT BEING SUCH A MENCH
I'M ALL FOR THE J.V. AND QUENTIN TRADE...

PROVIDED THAT WE SIGN A #3 PITCHER, AS WELL!!!

AS FOR MENCH, HIS ROAD NUMBERS MAKE ME VERY SUSPICIOUS, IN THE SAME VEIGN, SORIANO'S NUMBERS AT RFK WILL BE INTERSTING TO WATCH!!!!

by TOLAXOR on Dec 8, 2005 10:10 AM EST reply actions  

Bernie's column
is spot on. DeWitt and Co. are beginning to remind me of Carl Pohlad, which isn't a good thing.

by cardsrul on Dec 8, 2005 10:14 AM EST reply actions  

ditto that
the ownership is screwing jocketty and the rest of us.

by lboros on Dec 8, 2005 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Don't know how this deal is dead....
since they landed a cheap second baseman with a shorter last name.

by Oddjob on Dec 8, 2005 10:15 AM EST reply actions  

Here's why I don't buy it...
I would be floored if the D'Backs traded Carlos Quentin.  He's one of the very best hitting prospects in baseball and is Major League ready.  They're loaded down with dead weight salaries and dealing Quentin while keeping Green and Gonzalez would be ridiculous.

Then again, this is the team that signed Russ Ortiz.

by Tim Dierkes on Dec 8, 2005 10:25 AM EST reply actions  

Ortiz
was signed by a different GM.

There's no rule that says the money the Yankees are paying the D-backs for Vazquez has to be passed through.

by Rob H on Dec 8, 2005 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks Rob.
Thanks.  I was confused about the specifics of his contract, just that AZ wasn't paying the whole $11.5M.  Perhaps that $3M of Yankee money was "the cash" the Cardinals wanted in the deal.  Makes their demand seem a little more sensible.

But still, you'd hate to look back three years from now, when Quetin is the next Cabrera (speculation!), and know that he could be side-by-side with Pujols in the Cards' lineup but for $3M in the winter of 2005.   Or,if Quentin turns in to the next Carlos Pena, this is hailed as a good non-trade.

Me?  I'd love to plug him in in front of Pujols and see what happens.

by flynn on Dec 8, 2005 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

If my understanding is correct,, ...
Vasquez is due to make $11.5M in 2006 and $12.5M in 2007, but the Yankees are on the hook for $3M each year.  So, getting him for Suppan and Marquis is essentially a wash, payroll-wise for 2006 and actually looks pretty good for 2007 when you consider that Suppan is probably in line for at least Paul Byrd-type money, and probably more, after 2006, and who knows where Marquis' value will be.  Makes the owners' demands for cash in the deal seem less reasonable doesn't it?

Then again, they'd be opening up two holes in the rotation and only filling one of them.  They'd HAVE to get another arm somewhere to fill out the rotation, AND just totally rely on Reyes, which has it's own array of risks.  But, with the postseason the way it is, it doesn't make sense to try and go "4/5 strong" with your rotation.  Better to have a great "Big Three" with two low-cost rotation fillers and spend the money that would go to better #4 and #5 starters elsewhere, like the 'pen, or the OF, or 2b, or the bench (oh, the list goes on this year, doesn't it?)  

I'm with RotoAuthority here.  I'd be amazed if Quentin came our way for any package that didn't at least include Reyes and a lot more (or include Gonzo or Greenie in the role of Mike Lowell.)

But, independent of Quentin, I'd love to see Vasquez in the rotation.  

by flynn on Dec 8, 2005 10:56 AM EST reply actions  

I see......
Rondell White was non tendered.  id sign that guy to a one year deal for cheap in a heartbeat.  low risk high reward type.

by Mike1312 on Dec 8, 2005 11:06 AM EST reply actions  

Re:
Then again, they'd be opening up two holes in the rotation and only filling one of them.  They'd HAVE to get another arm somewhere to fill out the rotation, AND just totally rely on Reyes, which has it's own array of risks.

I was about to say the exact same thing last night here before I lost my Internet. It just didn't make sense when you looked at it. I'm glad it fell through.

by cardsrul on Dec 8, 2005 11:08 AM EST reply actions  

ESPN reporting
Red Sox trade of Renteria to Braves for Marte is a done deal with a press conference to be had within the hour...

by sdelek on Dec 8, 2005 11:44 AM EST reply actions  

That was a well-administered paddling
to the ownership by Miklasz.

I think he probably misses a few things, like the need for current returns, taxes, etc. But overall, he's right. Just as I said yesterday, if you have a weak farm system and few tradeable players, you have to step up and bid every now and then.

Anyway, I hope they heard him.

by Red in Chicago on Dec 8, 2005 11:50 AM EST reply actions  

I think I want to slit my wrists
This is utterly depressing. We needed to accomplish one of two things this offseason: (1) realize that the window was closing and go for broke -- add 1 or 2 impact players that might help us win it all (Giles/Burnett) while filling the other holes (2B, OF, bullpen) w/suitable stop-gaps; or (2) aim for longer-term, sustainable competitiveness by getting younger talent and dumping some big contracts via trade.  We have failed miserably to do either.

Ownership obviously deserves majority of the blame, but we shouldn't let Jock off the hook either. It's his job to have a clear understanding of what ownership will and won't accept before wasting time pursuing someone like Burnett while not moving aggressively on other fronts (e.g., trading Marquis for an OF or finding a decent solution at 2B). Perhaps he's become too confident in his ability to pull a rabbit out of the hat after his "Plan A" inevitably fails...

I guess I'm just venting frustration here ... but I see the '06 Cards shaping up as team that's significantly more vulnerable than the '04 or '05 versions, and with a much thinner margin for error.

by DCRedbird on Dec 8, 2005 12:00 PM EST reply actions  

Let's keep things in perspective:
The Birds in 2005 had the highest payroll in the Central, 3rd-highest payroll in the NL in (behind New York and Philly), and the 6th-highest in all of baseball (behind New York again, Boston, and the Angels).

They may or may not have more cash to spend, but as fans, we can't just assume that they "should" go out and spend millions of dollars on this player or that player if they don't feel it's worth it. Maybe they lose out on a coiuple of players who they feel are overvalued by the marketplace, maybe they then have available cash to make a better move at some point in the future. Of ocurse, they may just be misreading the market.

But I'm giving Jocketty & Co. the benefit of the doubt here while all the craziness spins on around us. Let's see how things have shaken out by the first week of April before we start shouting that the sky is falling.

by salvomania on Dec 8, 2005 12:12 PM EST reply actions  

It's definitely a seller's market at the moment
of these winter meetings, and perhaps the Cards won't make any big moves until later this winter when it's perhaps a little more favorable to buyers.  Then again, it could be even more of a seller's market as the winter goes on!
matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Dec 8, 2005 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

i'd have less problem with this
if the cards hadn't identified certain players/needs as priorities. they clearly made burnett a priority ---- walt/tony flew to florida to court him. and they have talked endlessly about starting pitching being the #1 priority.

the question is, are you willing to pay the market rate to achieve your self-proclaimed objective? from what we've seen so far, these owners aren't willing to fund walter's program.

nobody's saying the sky is falling --- yet. but the last 10 days have to leave you wondering how serious the owners are about winning a championship

by lboros on Dec 8, 2005 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

To worry or not to worry
I'm much more bothered by not getting involved in the Loretta or Castillo deals than I am by missing out on Burnett.  I think the ownership (and Walt - do you really think he is in complete disagreement with them?) is right to keep from shooting themselves in the foot with a bad contract that makes it difficult to re-sign Mulder.  This will all calm down in time - look at how the market cooled post-ARod/Chan Ho Park/Hampton/etc craziness several years ago.  We already have a large payroll and a team that can win.  Let's get the pieces we need, and reassess next summer.  We can always swing a mid-season pickup that puts us over the top.  Is anyone seriously worried that the Cubs are going to put it together next year?  And the Astros will be worse.

by dccardsfan on Dec 8, 2005 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

That's
exactly how I'm beginning to feel. Everytime I hear of another player going somewhere other than St. Louis, I have to ask, what the hell is going on? Speaking of...Sweeney went north to San Francisco. Cross another one off the list.

by cardsrul on Dec 8, 2005 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Jiminez not doing so hot in Dominican League
Baseball Prospectus' Winter League update has Jiminez's line at ".169/.311/.186 with one extra base hit (a double) in 59 at bats." Given his history (don't forget the neck injury early in his career), he may be kaput and not worthy of a spot in the matrix. In the spirit of trying to find any alternative to Aaron Miles at second base, how about a little somethin' to the A's for Ginter or Scutaro? Both were disappointing with the bats last year, but I know Scutaro satisfies the defense and Ginter must have his misplaced power stored somewhere ...
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time." - Jim Bouton

by WillieMcGeeModelingCompany on Dec 8, 2005 12:42 PM EST reply actions  

Nomar
I think it's time to go after the guy.  He is probably the only offensive player still on the open market who can make a difference, and they can find somewhere to play him, whether it is short, second or left field.  The Cubs non-arbitration offer means that he won't even cost draft picks.

by Valatan on Dec 8, 2005 12:42 PM EST reply actions  

One option out the window
Tony Womack dealt to the Reds. I am happy he's in our division... and even happier we didn't give him another try.

by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 8, 2005 12:50 PM EST reply actions  

Grud/Sanders

  I just don't get it. Team chemistry is HUGE. I don't care who you have on the team. Grud/Sanders
provided that. Especially Reggie. Didn't Grud & Eck have the most double plays in the NL. Didn't attendance top 3 million this year? I can't imagine the profits on concessions & merchandise. They're already charging 7 bucks a beer at Busch. Make it 8 & keep these guys that bring more value to the team the just earning their paycheck.
CliffNotes

by CliffNotes on Dec 8, 2005 1:01 PM EST reply actions  

Rule 5
Cards take Juan Mateo from the Cubs. According to Minorleaguebaseball.com, the soon-to-be 23-year-old was a swingman for Daytona, 3.21 ERA with 123 strikeouts and 27 walks in 109 innings. Maybe he will fill that "warm body" slot in the matrix.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time." - Jim Bouton

by WillieMcGeeModelingCompany on Dec 8, 2005 1:22 PM EST reply actions  

VIDRO
ANYONE ELSE NOTICE THAT THE NAT'LS ARE INSISTING THAT SORIANO WILL PLAY 2B???!!!

WONDER WHAT THAT MEANS FOR JOSE VIDRO...

by TOLAXOR on Dec 8, 2005 1:39 PM EST reply actions  

I read somewhere that
the Nats believe his effectiveness is gone... due to injury or falloff.

by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 8, 2005 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

MATEO, HUH???!!!
JEFF LUNHOW, I ASSUME YOU GUYS KNOW WHAT YOU'RE DOING, BUT WHY NOT:

ADAM BOEVE

OR

JAKE BLALOCK???!!

OR

KOUZMANOFF????

by TOLAXOR on Dec 8, 2005 1:45 PM EST reply actions  

Todd Jones
He's gone, according to AP -- Tigers signed him for $11 mln over two years.
DCGreg

by DCGreg on Dec 8, 2005 2:10 PM EST reply actions  

Outfielder
Why dont they go after Byrnes he is a nice bat with some power

by fxster on Dec 8, 2005 2:15 PM EST reply actions  

I've been thinking...
I was frustrated with the winter meetings ending with nothing being done, but really, maybe it is not our year to spend, and theres still alot of time to make moves, ill be happy either way because I just love the cardinals...

by alecoholics on Dec 8, 2005 2:51 PM EST reply actions  

Are you...
related to Bill DeWitt?

Just kidding.  I love the Cardinals too.  Let's hope they're just incrementally making salary room for a great acquisition we're not even talking about...

by flynn on Dec 8, 2005 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

three relievers
P-D story today (by strauss) mentions three new bullpen possibilities: Ricardo Rincon, Jason Grimsley and Roberto Hernandez (along with Looper and Dotel).  Here are their 2005 and career WHIPs:

               05    career
Dotel (R)     1.37    1.20
Rincon (L)    1.45    1.31  
Hernandez (R) 1.22    1.34
Looper (R)    1.47    1.37
Grimsley (R)  1.50    1.56    

Seems to me that Dotel (if ready to go or at least close to it in April) and Hernandez (even at age 41) are the best of the bunch. Rincon could be a useful LOOGY. Last year, right-handed hitters had a .901 OPS off him, left-handers .711. (Numbers comparable in previous years.) Can't understand why we'd even look at Grimsley.

Any other thoughts?

DCGreg

by DCGreg on Dec 10, 2005 8:47 AM EST reply actions  

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