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contreras on the market?

mlbtraderumors, citing a report on espn radio 1000 in chicago, says jon garland has signed an extension with the white sox -- 3 yrs / $29m. could have significant implications for the cardinals, insofar as the sox will probably now market jose contreras, who would make a much better addition to the cardinals rotation than garland would have. contreras throws harder than garland (i wrote about both pitchers at length here) and profiles more as the type of postseason stopper the cards have been seeking; but he also makes more money -- under contract for $8m this year, then a free agent. the sox were reportedly seeking prospects in exchange for garland (see here, scroll down) and presumably would seek same for contreras.

quite a few "ifs" in the foregoing, but if it all comes to pass i'd hope jocketty will go after this player. if he acquires contreras, walt can then proceed with what has been plan A all along, ie trade marquis for an outfielder of the kearns / mench / wilkerson ilk. such maneuvers would give the cards the rotation bump and outfield upside that have eluded them so far this winter.

contreras, you'll recall, defected from cuba and signed with the yankees in 2003, where he struggled badly because, among other things, his wife and kids were still stuck in cuba. their arrival in the states was considered one reason for his return to form; the other was the tutelage of ozzie guillen, a native spanish speaker with a latino-centric worldview. guillen's presence supposedly helped contreras feel settled and secure in a strange environment, putting the pitcher in a mental/emotional state that was conducive to getting batters out. . . . . to the extent all of that is true, the cardinal clubhouse would seem to provide a happy home for contreras. it has strong latin american leadership in pujols and molina, as well as a manger who (correct me if i'm wrong) is fluent in spanish.

i wouldn't want to get too excited about this, because a) we don't know how the cardinal scouts/statmen feel about contreras; b) we don't know how the white sox scouts/statmen feel about the prospects st louis can offer; and c) a lot of teams will be pursuing him. but what the hell, it's another opportunity; having whiffed on burnett and vazquez, perhaps the cards can make contact this time.

i certainly hope we don't hear that st louis, having committed all their dollars to encar'cion looper et al, no longer possesses the payroll flexibility to add contreras. it looks to me as if the payroll space is still there, even with the other signings. the cards are currently $3m below the $90m target payroll, and the marquis-for-outfielder transaction will probably net them another $2m-$3m --- and said acquisition would also enable them to shed bigbie's $900K salary. so it may be a tight fit, but from here it doesn't look like a deal breaker.

stay tuned ev'yone.

hey by the way, rotoworld cites a report in the baltimore sun that the o?s are close to signing j burnitz to a 2-year, $12m contract. ayeeesh. "what a remarkably bad idea," rotoworld says; major understatement. and here i was sure the dude would pull no more than $3.5m for one year . . . . if this is what it takes to get burnitz, then forget what i said about him being a better option than encarnacion. at these prices they're both lousy deals, but burnitz is lousier.

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You beat me to it
By apparently writing this article an hour in the future. hahah.

Also, I gotta figure SOMETHING is gonna happen involving Tampa Bay since Lugo was dangled and the REd Sox STILL don't have a starting shortstop.

by sdrone on Dec 28, 2005 2:23 PM EST reply actions  

Yes, TLR speaks fluent Spanish.
He grew up in a bilingual household as his mother is from Latin America.
matty fred is a web log.

by matty fred on Dec 28, 2005 2:28 PM EST reply actions  

A wild guess but....
I think the only way Contreras comes to STL is if a third team willing to trade prospects for Marquis gets invovled.  Marquis goes to third team for prospects, third team's prospects plus Cardinal prospects go to White Sox, Contreras comes to STL.  The Marquis/Contreras salary difference of $3M is just absorbed by STL and you're at $90M.  

I think the team is really sold on Bigbie and a Marquis-for-OF trade will not happen.  Just my uninformed opinion.

by flynn on Dec 28, 2005 2:29 PM EST reply actions  

Makes sense
Your proposed deal does make more sense than others.  While I would like to trade Maqruis for a proven OF (Mench, Wilkerson, et al) I don't know if the other teams believe he is worth it.  I wouldn't mind seeing Marquis & Wainwright/Narveson leave to bring Contreas to town.

by Just Rope Ball on Dec 28, 2005 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Are they really sold on Anderson?
Or are they in the market for a CF?  I sure hope the cards don't trade Jimmy for one of their pitchers.

by elderj on Dec 28, 2005 2:39 PM EST reply actions  

Well, first, they are
sold on ANderson.  2nd, they have a 2nd and possibly a 3rd prospect behind him, both of whom are probably capable of playing center.  

by sdrone on Dec 28, 2005 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I've Been Saying This For Weeks
I've been trumpeting the case for Contreras ever since Vasquez got dealt to the White Sox.  If only this could happen.  I agree with Flynn's comment above that it will most likely take a 3rd team since the White Sox have Garland, Buehrle, Garcia, Vasquez, Contreras and McCarthy fighting for 5 spots in their rotation.  Deal Marquis to a 3rd team, package the prospects we get from that deal plus what would most likely be Wainwright and Lambert or Pomerantz and do the deal.  Sign Contreras to an extension ASAP and work on Mulder's extension as well.  Contreras would give us a desperately needed power pitcher.  He pitched great in the postseason and had a pretty good regular season too.  

by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Dec 28, 2005 3:19 PM EST reply actions  

i wouldn't trade
for contreras..both him and marquis will be FA, but marquis is younger..how much do you want to give up for a 34 year old pitcher...I would rather go with what they have then make a move to make a move(which is what some would argue is what they have done with OF,2b RP)

by punchinjudy on Dec 28, 2005 3:21 PM EST reply actions  

Are we sure
Contreras is only 34?

And how wise would it be to cash in Marquis, and our prospects (and buck up $3M more,) for a guy who has had only three really good months in the big leagues?

by flynn on Dec 28, 2005 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

No joke
We have no idea how old Contreras is.  I believe him and El Duque are "age unknown" as they don't have birth certificates from Cuba.  

Marquis is at the age where pitchers hit their prime and figure "it" out.  

by wcheuk on Dec 28, 2005 3:47 PM EST reply actions  

thank you
flynn and wcheuk for not drinking the koolaid like everyone else...You can also throw furcal in the group with unknown age...just to fill a need you don't do what the mets did and give the ageless wonder Julio Franco(even though i like him) a 2 year deal

by punchinjudy on Dec 28, 2005 3:56 PM EST reply actions  

You could
also say the same thing about Pujols. Is he really 25, or is he older?

by cardsrul on Dec 28, 2005 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

No way...
Pujols is 25.  More like 28-30.
Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Dec 28, 2005 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Catch 22
We know we need at least a powerful 1-2 combination to be good in the post season, ie Martinez - Schilling, Clemens - Pettite (Oswalt), etc.  We have Carpenter.  We thought Mulder would be that #2 but that isn't panning out.  So we have a couple options:
  1.  Try this Contreras thing and look to win this season. OR
  2.  Hold off, keep Marquis and prospects, hope Jed will be here in 2007, and go after that #2 in next years off season (which from what I read is going to be a good market for starting pitching).
My opinion:  Attempt both.  
Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Dec 28, 2005 5:00 PM EST reply actions  

next offseason
wiscards, you're right, we gotta get that strong #2. but i don't think we can afford to wait until 2007, because by then we'll have to fill out 3/5 of the rotation. mulder supps and marquis will all be free agents; only reyes and carp will be under contract. so we'll have to pay free-agent money to three pitchers, or pick somebody up in a trade, or hope that lambert or wainwright is ready.

we have the opportunity now; gotta seize the moment.

from mlb4u.com, here are some free-agent starters for 2007 who might fit the profile we're looking for:

jason schmidt
mike mussina
jose contreras
adam eaton
andy pettite
barry zito
kerry wood

out of that group i'd most like to have schmidt, but so would fans (and gms) of ev'y other team . . . . it's always gonna be a huge bidding war for guys like this, and the cards have a track record of avoiding those kinds of bidding wars. so the same problem we saw this year, lowball bidding on the f.a. market, will prob'y keep them from signing anybody good in 2006-07.

by lboros on Dec 28, 2005 5:25 PM EST up reply actions  

dont forget
big john smoltz, id love to see him in the unie for a 2-year deal as long as he pitches well this upcoming season
bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Dec 28, 2005 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

That list
is encouraging in the fact that those guys might be available as mid-season pickups.  

That list is NOT encouraging on the mid-season pick-up theory because you figure any in-division deals are out (negating Wood and Pettitte) and the rest of the guys play for teams that almost surely will be playoff contenders and not available at all.  Exceptions - Schmidt (maybe), Eaton (maybe.)

by flynn on Dec 28, 2005 6:16 PM EST up reply actions  

what's also not encouraging
is that if any of those guys are available as midseason pickups, the competition is going to be fierce. given the cards' thin farm system and aversion to risk-taking, i wouldn't expect they could get a schmidt-type even if such a player were to come onto the market

by lboros on Dec 28, 2005 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Adam Eaton?
Am I missing something?

by Rob H on Dec 28, 2005 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

power pitcher
i didn't say he was good; just that he fits the profile

career k/9 = 7.0
career k-w = 2.5:1
career h/9 = 8.5

ok w/ you?

by lboros on Dec 28, 2005 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sold on Schmidt
As a SF Giants season ticket holder, I'm not sold on him any more.  The velocity was down 5 mph last year and he was hittable throughout the year.

He could come back strong this year and I would be wrong, but I see him on the down side.

Also, the whisper around SF was it wasn't entirely coincidental that his velocity and performance fell off once MLB began steroid testing in earnest.

by BozCardsFanSF on Dec 29, 2005 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

I think
pujols is 25...he loosk young especially when you look at contreras..the man looks old...Has anyone heard anything else about Wade Miller? I'd give him a ST invite if the dough was right

by punchinjudy on Dec 28, 2005 5:08 PM EST reply actions  

punch, i don't get it
contreras is healthy, he had an outstanding 2d half last year, and he held opponents to a .222 avg in the 2005 playoffs. his postseason k-w ratio was 7.0. other than your doubts about his age, what don't you like?

wade miller was once a really good pitcher and may be again someday, but howya gonna keep him healthy?

can you name one pitcher with his type of health record who has made a big impact in any postseason over the last 20 years?

by lboros on Dec 28, 2005 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Lying about age
I read a couple of years ago that the debate about this issue had been ended. After 9/11 the State Department required all foreign nationals, particularly professional athletes, to legally certify and provide proof of their birthdates. Fonzie Soriano, for example, was a player that had to add a few years to his "previously stated" age. Neither Pujols nor Contreras had to, thus they have either been stating their correct ages all along or have some kind of "in" at the State Department that allows them to continue lying (which I seriously doubt). Or perhaps their forged documents were of such quality that the State Department couldn't tell they were fake (which I also seriously doubt). Far as I can tell this is one of those rumors about Latino players that persists even though it has been proven false.

by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 5:50 PM EST reply actions  

Oh...
and YES to Contreras, whatever his age. I'd be thrilled to see him wear the Birds On Bat.

by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 5:56 PM EST up reply actions  

If that is the case...
...there aren't any baseball writers that seem to know about this.  Every one I read questions Contreras' age.

by sdrone on Dec 28, 2005 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Well...
They are paid to stir the pot. Besides, how many baseball writers' opinions and statements do you trust? In a time when many people still believe Iraq was responsible for 9/11, does this seem a surprise?

by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Hard to believe about...
Pujols being 25.  Albert is two months older than me by what they state.  I look old for 25 and am often mistaken for 30 and my wife thinks he looks older than me (we had this discussion at a game once).  
A tell tell sign about his true age will come once the 2012/2013 seasons roll around.  If his numbers start dipping when he is "32/33" then we know he more than likely is "36/37".
Freezing in Wisconsin.

by WiscCard on Dec 28, 2005 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

True...
but how a person "looks" isn't evidence of anything.

by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Have you
seen what Dick Clark looks like recently? I think his pact with Satan has come to an end :-)

by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Age
On he other end of the spectrum.

Look at So Tagucci.  He looks more like 26 than 36...

by Zubin on Dec 28, 2005 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually...
Taguchi is 38 now.  
Cards fan stuck in Chicago.

by dhaab on Dec 29, 2005 12:36 AM EST up reply actions  

38
Okay and the guy still looks 26...  Get my point?

by Zubin on Dec 31, 2005 3:27 AM EST up reply actions  

post-9/11 age verification
What I heard was that the new method of verification only applied when the player went back home and then re-entered the US, thus a guy like Pujols, who IIRC has most of his family in the US already, and thus has no need to leave the country, was never forced to verify his age.

by john vb on Dec 28, 2005 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

That
could very well be the case. And it would explain why the debate continues--guys like Albie do have a loophole. Thanks for bringing us up to speed.

by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 7:57 PM EST up reply actions  

IMO
this age thing with Pujols started because he became a great baseball player SO fast.  He wasn't a very high draft pick and many scouts and writers didn't know a whole lot about him.  Then he burst on the scene and many of them immediately assumed that he HAD to be older than his stated age.  

Also, he does look older, but what does that prove?  Many folks think I look 30 and I'm 40.  Doesn't mean anything.

Cards fan stuck in Chicago.

by dhaab on Dec 29, 2005 12:40 AM EST up reply actions  

miller time
would be a good st invite to fill in the bullpen..he could spot start if needed, and i would think the bullpen may help...look at former starters who have made the switch...gagne,izzy,hermanson..

by punchinjudy on Dec 28, 2005 7:07 PM EST reply actions  

I heard on the radio
that Wade won't be ready until midseason anyway

by Valatan on Dec 28, 2005 7:16 PM EST up reply actions  

same with
dotelo and they pursued him

by punchinjudy on Dec 28, 2005 7:39 PM EST reply actions  

great situation
if we could come in with a low ball offer due to his pending free agency and high salary

by johnstjc @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 28, 2005 8:40 PM EST reply actions  

FYI ON KEARNS
MGL, IN A POST ON PRIMER, MENTIONS THAT WE TRIED FOR KEARNS BUT THAT IT FELL THROUGH....

by TOLAXOR on Dec 28, 2005 8:44 PM EST reply actions  

according to mlbtraderumors.com
the tejada trade is dead for the cubs and they are about to sign preston wilson, and it also says that corey patterson is as good as gone. another good signing for us is the cubs getting preston wilson (hits .188 career vs. STL, also not good is he has 3 HR, 6 RBI, .432 avg in 16 ABs at wrigley field for his career)
bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Dec 29, 2005 12:51 AM EST reply actions  

Funny Money
I don't understand all the constant chivying on salaries.  Its like watching some friends play Monopoly (St Louis Version) and complaining that WJ paid too much for the Bowling Hall of Fame, when you wanted the Gateway Arch.

Its Funny Money!  It's not real!  None of the excess goes to world hunger, or even back to the fans.  It will all be spent on overpaid players!

All this years deals will look cheap in 2008.  All of 2002's deals look cheap now.  OK, not counting Tino's.  There are always going to be good deals and bad, but as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would say, money is an illusion...

by socalcardsfan on Dec 29, 2005 1:11 AM EST reply actions  

but socal
they have a self-imposed salary cap, which means that the dollars have to be spent wisely. if you waste $5m on a player who does not improve the team, the team suffers  --- because that wasted $5m is unavailable to spend on better players.

that's why the name of the game is "moneyball." unless you are the red sox or yankees and can spend without restraint, the trick to building a team is to allocate payroll dollars efficiently, move them around to where they can earn the greatest return.

some of the cards' acquisitions this year seem like low-yield investments, which is why some people are griping

by lboros on Dec 29, 2005 1:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Low Yeild Investments
But LB, could any of us have done much better?

I think most of the problem is the inflated FA market.  The Juan'cion signing seemed like Tino Martinez II to me.  But now I think the truth is that even a very average OF is worth $5M a year n the current market. As someone said "$5M is the new $3M."

We can criticize Jock for a few moves, or a lack thereof, but on the whole I think he did close to the best he could.  Perhaps he could have gotten Loretta at 2nd and Lawton in left, but for all we know those guys had no interest in playing for StL.

================

Perhaps you could have some kind of 'contest' to see if anyone could have done better.  I'd love to see you or someone else track the signings or deals cardinal nation thinks Jock should have done.

by Zubin on Dec 29, 2005 2:11 AM EST up reply actions  

The cap isn't hard
And they don't have anywhere else to spend it anyway.

Free agent acquisitions are always low yield. Geez, the A's gave Tino-money to Esteban Loaiza. Realistically the Cardinals have a choice, fill the holes with low yield players or don't fill them at all.

by Rob H on Dec 29, 2005 3:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Did you guys...
check out my "Bargains" diary?  Some of you seem to be hovering close to what I posited there.  Just wondering if anyone agreed with me or if, as usual, I'm full of it.

by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 10:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Bargains diary
Where is the diary Flynn?

by Zubin on Dec 29, 2005 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Unless I'm missing something...
It's over in the right sidebar under "Recent Diaries"  Most of this little tangent would probably make more sense placed under that post, in that it is all about FAs and "bargains," hence the name....

by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

FA signings..
aren't always low yield.  Ask the D-Backs how that Randy Johnson signing went.  Or the Astros about Pettitte and Clemens.  Or the Marlins about Pudge Rodriguez.  Or the Angels about Vladdie.  I'd say all of those guys earned their cash and their teams were/are glad to pay it.

 

by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

flynn you and i agree here
if you're gonna play the free-agent market, play to win. sign impact players ---- clemens, pettitte, pudge, vladdie. those guys are all-stars, and they're worth paying retail (or overpaying) for because they might help bring you a championship.

the cards targeted an impact player --- burnett --- but they chickened out at the last minute. if they had signed him for 5 / $50, i would have applauded that move.

by lboros on Dec 29, 2005 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

It's like....
shopping for anything.  For some purchases, it pays to shell out top dollar.  

by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Top dollar?
LB, Flynn:

Yes, for some purchases- not all.  For many (and probably most) things  we buy there is a weak quality to price correlation.  As you said before, he name of the game is Moneyball.  You get value by going after comodities that are undervalued and avoiding those that are overvalued.  I'd guess for every high priced FA signing that is sucessful, there have been three or four that have tanked.  

by Zubin on Dec 29, 2005 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

i think the ratio
is more like 50-50. it's just that the train wrecks get written and talked about so much, they seem much more numerous than they really are. how many complete disasters can you name?

chan ho park
dreifort
kevin brown
mike hampton
denny neagle
mo vaughn

vs recent successes:

pettitte
clemens
pedro
schilling
big unit
vlad guerrero

and a lotta mixed-bag / jury still out

rolen
c delgado
thome
renteria
glavine

i'm sure i am leaving some guys out . . . . would make an interesting study, but i'm guessing 50-50 is closer to how it shakes out

by lboros on Dec 29, 2005 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Ouroboros
I accept your reasoning with a fixed salary cap. Notwithstanding ownerships claims to the contrary, salaries will go up.  It's human nature to discount the uncertaintly associated with new income streams, but with all the new revenue sources, many teams are spending, and pre-spending the new money flows.

The nouveaux riches often look like clods when they flaunt their wealth, and I'm not surprised that a storied franchise like the Cards would disdain such practice.  But deals that look horrible in November suddenly don't look so bad in late December, and deals that look stupid in a flat revenue world make sense when every team gets a $20m jog in funds.

I knew right from the beginning
That you would end up winnin'
I knew right from the start
You'd put an arrow through my heart

Round and round
With love we'll find a way just give it time, time, time, time
Round and round
What comes around goes around
I'll tell you why, why, why, why
Round and round

by socalcardsfan on Dec 29, 2005 2:33 AM EST reply actions  

Sweet.
Are we actually posting Ratt lyrics now?

That's just tremendous.

by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Contreras
Maybe some of you aren't sold on Contreras but he has a W.S. ring and pitched well enough during the playoffs and W.S. to pique interest around these parts.  He fits the profile of a stopper and a power armed #2 in our rotation.  Shouldn't we be looking to win now since Edmonds may only have 2 or 3 good years left and as of today we don't have any can't miss OF prospects waiting in the minors?  Chicago probably wants prospects anyway, so we might be able to keep Marquis or deal him for another OF (although we already have a logjam there and don't need another OF unless it's a starter).

by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Dec 29, 2005 7:54 AM EST reply actions  

if cubs get wilson
Jones-SO-120 BB-51 in 523 AB
lee SO-109  85BBin 593 AB
wilson-140 SO 45BB in 520 AB

ya those guys had other numbers that were good, but to me thats a lot of K's to add..think if cards signed him

Jimmy 139 SO 91 BB in 467 AB
Rolen04 92 SO 72 BB 500 AB if you added wilsons to that to me is a big whole considering guys like Ramriez or Pujols don't k much

by punchinjudy on Dec 29, 2005 4:52 PM EST reply actions  

but he probably had better
numbers than juan, but for the cubs having signed jones i think your piling the k's..

by punchinjudy on Dec 29, 2005 4:54 PM EST reply actions  

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