contreras on the market?
mlbtraderumors, citing a report on espn radio 1000 in chicago, says jon garland has signed an extension with the white sox -- 3 yrs / $29m. could have significant implications for the cardinals, insofar as the sox will probably now market jose contreras, who would make a much better addition to the cardinals rotation than garland would have. contreras throws harder than garland (i wrote about both pitchers at length here) and profiles more as the type of postseason stopper the cards have been seeking; but he also makes more money -- under contract for $8m this year, then a free agent. the sox were reportedly seeking prospects in exchange for garland (see here, scroll down) and presumably would seek same for contreras.
quite a few "ifs" in the foregoing, but if it all comes to pass i'd hope jocketty will go after this player. if he acquires contreras, walt can then proceed with what has been plan A all along, ie trade marquis for an outfielder of the kearns / mench / wilkerson ilk. such maneuvers would give the cards the rotation bump and outfield upside that have eluded them so far this winter.
contreras, you'll recall, defected from cuba and signed with the yankees in 2003, where he struggled badly because, among other things, his wife and kids were still stuck in cuba. their arrival in the states was considered one reason for his return to form; the other was the tutelage of ozzie guillen, a native spanish speaker with a latino-centric worldview. guillen's presence supposedly helped contreras feel settled and secure in a strange environment, putting the pitcher in a mental/emotional state that was conducive to getting batters out. . . . . to the extent all of that is true, the cardinal clubhouse would seem to provide a happy home for contreras. it has strong latin american leadership in pujols and molina, as well as a manger who (correct me if i'm wrong) is fluent in spanish.
i wouldn't want to get too excited about this, because a) we don't know how the cardinal scouts/statmen feel about contreras; b) we don't know how the white sox scouts/statmen feel about the prospects st louis can offer; and c) a lot of teams will be pursuing him. but what the hell, it's another opportunity; having whiffed on burnett and vazquez, perhaps the cards can make contact this time.
i certainly hope we don't hear that st louis, having committed all their dollars to encar'cion looper et al, no longer possesses the payroll flexibility to add contreras. it looks to me as if the payroll space is still there, even with the other signings. the cards are currently $3m below the $90m target payroll, and the marquis-for-outfielder transaction will probably net them another $2m-$3m --- and said acquisition would also enable them to shed bigbie's $900K salary. so it may be a tight fit, but from here it doesn't look like a deal breaker.
stay tuned ev'yone.
hey by the way, rotoworld cites a report in the baltimore sun that the o?s are close to signing j burnitz to a 2-year, $12m contract. ayeeesh. "what a remarkably bad idea," rotoworld says; major understatement. and here i was sure the dude would pull no more than $3.5m for one year . . . . if this is what it takes to get burnitz, then forget what i said about him being a better option than encarnacion. at these prices they're both lousy deals, but burnitz is lousier.
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You beat me to it
Also, I gotta figure SOMETHING is gonna happen involving Tampa Bay since Lugo was dangled and the REd Sox STILL don't have a starting shortstop.
Yes, TLR speaks fluent Spanish.
A wild guess but....
I think the team is really sold on Bigbie and a Marquis-for-OF trade will not happen. Just my uninformed opinion.
by flynn on Dec 28, 2005 2:29 PM EST reply actions
Makes sense
by Just Rope Ball on Dec 28, 2005 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Are they really sold on Anderson?
by elderj on Dec 28, 2005 2:39 PM EST reply actions
Well, first, they are
I've Been Saying This For Weeks
by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Dec 28, 2005 3:19 PM EST reply actions
i wouldn't trade
Are we sure
And how wise would it be to cash in Marquis, and our prospects (and buck up $3M more,) for a guy who has had only three really good months in the big leagues?
by flynn on Dec 28, 2005 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
No joke
Marquis is at the age where pitchers hit their prime and figure "it" out.
by wcheuk on Dec 28, 2005 3:47 PM EST reply actions
thank you
Catch 22
- Try this Contreras thing and look to win this season. OR
- Hold off, keep Marquis and prospects, hope Jed will be here in 2007, and go after that #2 in next years off season (which from what I read is going to be a good market for starting pitching).
next offseason
we have the opportunity now; gotta seize the moment.
from mlb4u.com, here are some free-agent starters for 2007 who might fit the profile we're looking for:
jason schmidt
mike mussina
jose contreras
adam eaton
andy pettite
barry zito
kerry wood
out of that group i'd most like to have schmidt, but so would fans (and gms) of ev'y other team . . . . it's always gonna be a huge bidding war for guys like this, and the cards have a track record of avoiding those kinds of bidding wars. so the same problem we saw this year, lowball bidding on the f.a. market, will prob'y keep them from signing anybody good in 2006-07.
dont forget
by cards4ever on Dec 28, 2005 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
That list
That list is NOT encouraging on the mid-season pick-up theory because you figure any in-division deals are out (negating Wood and Pettitte) and the rest of the guys play for teams that almost surely will be playoff contenders and not available at all. Exceptions - Schmidt (maybe), Eaton (maybe.)
by flynn on Dec 28, 2005 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
what's also not encouraging
power pitcher
career k/9 = 7.0
career k-w = 2.5:1
career h/9 = 8.5
ok w/ you?
Not sold on Schmidt
He could come back strong this year and I would be wrong, but I see him on the down side.
Also, the whisper around SF was it wasn't entirely coincidental that his velocity and performance fell off once MLB began steroid testing in earnest.
by BozCardsFanSF on Dec 29, 2005 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
I think
punch, i don't get it
wade miller was once a really good pitcher and may be again someday, but howya gonna keep him healthy?
can you name one pitcher with his type of health record who has made a big impact in any postseason over the last 20 years?
Lying about age
Oh...
by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
If that is the case...
Well...
by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
Hard to believe about...
A tell tell sign about his true age will come once the 2012/2013 seasons roll around. If his numbers start dipping when he is "32/33" then we know he more than likely is "36/37".
True...
by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
Have you
by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
post-9/11 age verification
That
by rockin redbird on Dec 28, 2005 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
IMO
Also, he does look older, but what does that prove? Many folks think I look 30 and I'm 40. Doesn't mean anything.
miller time
great situation
by johnstjc @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 28, 2005 8:40 PM EST reply actions
FYI ON KEARNS
according to mlbtraderumors.com
by cards4ever on Dec 29, 2005 12:51 AM EST reply actions
Funny Money
Its Funny Money! It's not real! None of the excess goes to world hunger, or even back to the fans. It will all be spent on overpaid players!
All this years deals will look cheap in 2008. All of 2002's deals look cheap now. OK, not counting Tino's. There are always going to be good deals and bad, but as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke would say, money is an illusion...
by socalcardsfan on Dec 29, 2005 1:11 AM EST reply actions
but socal
that's why the name of the game is "moneyball." unless you are the red sox or yankees and can spend without restraint, the trick to building a team is to allocate payroll dollars efficiently, move them around to where they can earn the greatest return.
some of the cards' acquisitions this year seem like low-yield investments, which is why some people are griping
Low Yeild Investments
I think most of the problem is the inflated FA market. The Juan'cion signing seemed like Tino Martinez II to me. But now I think the truth is that even a very average OF is worth $5M a year n the current market. As someone said "$5M is the new $3M."
We can criticize Jock for a few moves, or a lack thereof, but on the whole I think he did close to the best he could. Perhaps he could have gotten Loretta at 2nd and Lawton in left, but for all we know those guys had no interest in playing for StL.
================
Perhaps you could have some kind of 'contest' to see if anyone could have done better. I'd love to see you or someone else track the signings or deals cardinal nation thinks Jock should have done.
The cap isn't hard
Free agent acquisitions are always low yield. Geez, the A's gave Tino-money to Esteban Loaiza. Realistically the Cardinals have a choice, fill the holes with low yield players or don't fill them at all.
by Rob H on Dec 29, 2005 3:12 AM EST up reply actions
Did you guys...
by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
Unless I'm missing something...
by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
FA signings..
by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
flynn you and i agree here
the cards targeted an impact player --- burnett --- but they chickened out at the last minute. if they had signed him for 5 / $50, i would have applauded that move.
It's like....
by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Top dollar?
Yes, for some purchases- not all. For many (and probably most) things we buy there is a weak quality to price correlation. As you said before, he name of the game is Moneyball. You get value by going after comodities that are undervalued and avoiding those that are overvalued. I'd guess for every high priced FA signing that is sucessful, there have been three or four that have tanked.
i think the ratio
chan ho park
dreifort
kevin brown
mike hampton
denny neagle
mo vaughn
vs recent successes:
pettitte
clemens
pedro
schilling
big unit
vlad guerrero
and a lotta mixed-bag / jury still out
rolen
c delgado
thome
renteria
glavine
i'm sure i am leaving some guys out . . . . would make an interesting study, but i'm guessing 50-50 is closer to how it shakes out
Ouroboros
The nouveaux riches often look like clods when they flaunt their wealth, and I'm not surprised that a storied franchise like the Cards would disdain such practice. But deals that look horrible in November suddenly don't look so bad in late December, and deals that look stupid in a flat revenue world make sense when every team gets a $20m jog in funds.
I knew right from the beginning
That you would end up winnin'
I knew right from the start
You'd put an arrow through my heart
Round and round
With love we'll find a way just give it time, time, time, time
Round and round
What comes around goes around
I'll tell you why, why, why, why
Round and round
by socalcardsfan on Dec 29, 2005 2:33 AM EST reply actions
Sweet.
That's just tremendous.
by flynn on Dec 29, 2005 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Contreras
by I Bleed Cardinal Red on Dec 29, 2005 7:54 AM EST reply actions
if cubs get wilson
lee SO-109 85BBin 593 AB
wilson-140 SO 45BB in 520 AB
ya those guys had other numbers that were good, but to me thats a lot of K's to add..think if cards signed him
Jimmy 139 SO 91 BB in 467 AB
Rolen04 92 SO 72 BB 500 AB if you added wilsons to that to me is a big whole considering guys like Ramriez or Pujols don't k much



















