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The secret to Walt/Tony/Dunc's success

I am frantically trying to locate the secret that they know about Encarnacion (my brother-in-law had it somewhere from the past 2 years)...but let's review the secrets to our brain-trusts' success.  

Everyone knows that they find something in pitchers that they think they can work on and bring out.  The story of those successes are well-documented...and I am one of those that believes they will get at least #3 rotation results from Ponson. But how about those players at the plate and in the field that have had their secrets uncovered by the Cardinals.  Sure, some of it is the great StL atmosphere and mystique...like Big Mac and Larry Walker getting inspired by the best fans in the world and playing at a different level.  Let's don't kid ourselves, playing for our organization and fans makes a world of difference if you've been in Colorado recently.

Remember last year when we were worried about the downgrade from Renteria/Womack to Eck and Grudz.? Remember the talk of how Eck would hurt us with his lack of range and arm if we didn't move him to 2nd Base?  I know we have gone through different hitting and fielding coaches, but WaltTonyDunc have been the constant to see things they could improve in castaways and projects to make a difference.  Eck and Grudz both were asked to work on their conditioning...Grudz to stay healthy (his secret to success) and Eck to improve his range, footwork, and release.  Oquendo worked with him everyday (no wonder he was known as the SECRET weapon).  If the Cards had originally signed Grudz for more years we would still have him but we helped him have a good enough year to price him out of our plans (if he were 3 yrs younger...sigh).  Conversely, those who wouldn't work on certain things were sent along to someone else (kerry rob, lankford, and Marquis' stubbornness has him on the trading block).

When you combine this with my earlier diary entry about competition and flexibility you have the whole picture.  We have a whole group of guys competing for just a few spots and you work with them to bring out their secrets.  At least a couple of them will step up and make a difference...I'm betting one of them is JuanCarn.  

I haven't found the particular article yet but my bro-in-law is a big fantasy baseball guy and while researching in the last 2 years he found something about the Marlins getting JuanCarn back from the Dodgers because one of their coaches saw something he could do to fix some of his problems.  If you look at his stats since coming back from the Dodgers they were getting better.  The Marlins were just dumping salary and going way younger so they didn't keep him.  I'll bet you anything that Walt, Tony, and/or one of the other coaches knows the secret of what he has been working on to improve himself.  If they are offering him a multi-year deal I guarantee you they know something that causes them to believe he will improve his numbers.  I'd be tickled if he just ends up with an above avg. glove and an OPS somewhere in the .800's.  Plus, he's never hit in a line-up this good before so that should help him as well.

I know I had an entry about entering into the Manny/Orioles triangle with Marquis and Edmonds, but it sounds as if Walt is only going to concentrate on JuanCarn and Spivey for a while and see if anything else shakes out later.

Poll
Which of the former Cards will have better numbers with their new team than they did in '05?
Morris
20 votes
Sanders
7 votes
Grudz
5 votes
Nunez
6 votes
Mabry
13 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments

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One thing to look at
is his defense. Encarnacion is probably the best defensive corner outfielder in the league, worth about 15 runs above average according to UZR (whose creator works for the Cardinals.)

by DanUpBaby on Dec 23, 2005 3:56 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

did i read that right?
are u saying that encarnacion is the best defensive corner outfielder in the league? that is not the truth. jacque jones is even better than him defensively.
bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Dec 23, 2005 4:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How do you determine that?
DanUp is talking about defense according to UZR, which the Cardinals use!  Jones may indeed, as you say, be better defensively, but what rubric are you using to make that determination?  (Saying "I've seen both of them play" is a legitimate reason for one's opinion, but defense is often in the eye of the beholder.)

In terms of the poll, I don't believe ANY of the ex-cards will improve their numbers in '06 from '05.  Morris, pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, might come close... come August, Sanders and Grudz will REALLY have to "grind it out" with that Kansas City club.

by The Ol Goaler on Dec 23, 2005 5:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i have a tough time believing
that on a team whose entire pitching staff is built around the groundball, that a rightfielder's glove can be worth 2 games a year.

more to the point, encarnacion's outstanding rating in uzr is contradicted by every other defensive metric.

  • baseball prospectus' rate2 puts him at 97 (slightly below avg) for the last 2 years and for his career.
  • david gassko's new metric, Range, introduced here at hardball times, put encarnacion at negative 4 runs for 2004 (gassko hasn't run 2005 numbers yet). the same system placed jacque jones at +22 runs (ie, his defense saved his team 22 runs).
  • encarnacion logged just 1.6 defensive win shares, less than half as many as 7 other nl rightfielders (jeromy burnitz 4.6, geoff jenkins 4.2, shawn green 4.1, bob abreu 3.7, jose guillen 3.2, jason lane 3.2, brian giles 3.1). larry walker nearly equaled juancion in defensive win shares (1.4) in only half a season.
  • juancion's range factor/9 has been below the league avg for rightfielders two years in a row. in 2005 he was 8th in the national league among right fielders in range factor.

so uzr is the outlier here; all the other metrics suggest that encarnacion is at best an average right fielder (and that's charitable). uzr is a powerful tool, and perhaps it is right and all the other metrics are wrong . . .  but that takes a slight leap of faith.

ditto for mgl's 15-run argument. i hope like hell that isn't the reason stl signed this player

by lboros on Dec 24, 2005 1:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

But
All those other defensive metrics are built on the same foundation -- re-allocation of traditional fielding stats like putouts and assists -- and consequently they've got significant (and similar) flaws to them. Basically they're modified range factors and all you have to do is look at Eckstein's RFs from 2004 and 2005 to see the problem with starting from there.

It's worth noting that Gassko himself thinks highly of UZR and in fact one of his defenses of his new method was that it correlated well with UZR.

by Rob H on Dec 25, 2005 3:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

however, gassko's system is based
on batted-ball data, a la UZR --- and it still showed encarnacion to be a below average right fielder. even tho gassko's system correlates closely to UZR overall, it disagrees in the case of encarnacion.

another system based on batted-ball data, pinto's probabilistic model of range, puts encarnacion above average but far from the best outfield corner in the game -- he rated 10th among right fielders.

so we're still left with one system (UZR) claiming that encarnacion is an ace outfielder, the best corner in the game . . . . and two others using similar data that show other conclusions.

i'm not knocking UZR per se, by the way --- but it's only one tool among many, and it only shows one piece of the picture. the overall picture is a bit of a mixed bag.

by lboros on Dec 25, 2005 7:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Gassko's system
Isn't based on batted-ball data, or at least it doesn't use zone data. Or at least that's not how I'm reading his introduction to "Range". His intention was to use publicly available data and split it according to GB, FB and LD, which is a far cry from the zone data that MGL uses.

Pinto's system is better, but it's basically a weaker version of UZR.

by Rob H on Dec 27, 2005 11:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

you're right
i went back and read gassko's intro; misread him the 1st time.

but i'm still not convinced that en'cion's glove is worth the 15 runs UZR gives him. maybe i'll change my mind after i see him play

by lboros on Dec 27, 2005 2:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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