juan is the loneliest number

by lboros on Dec 23, 2005 12:31 PM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

encarnacion by the projections:

baseball primer's ZIPS system projects him to have a .761 ops in 2006. jc bradbury's new system at hardball times, based upon predicted ops (or prOPS), makes the truly alarming projection that encarnacion will post a ghastly .701 ops, with .749 representing an upper boundary . . . . they're only projections, so take `em for what they're worth. but even if encarnacion beats those projections by 50 points, he's still only a league avg corner outfielder. digest that for a second. he has to outperform these projections -- which are based on empirical evidence, ie how previous players of his age and ability performed as they moved forward -- by 50 points just to be average.

for the sake of comparison, ZIPS projects jacque jones to .752, and bradbury's prOPS pegs jacque at .761. if you think the cubs' signing of jones was a blunder, then you can't like this signing much either. . . . .

cardnilly has a nice post up comparing the relative values of jacque, juancion, and reggie sanders -- the latter of whom signed with kansas city today by the way for less money than juancion (2 yrs, $5m per). nilly shows pretty clearly that reggie's a better player than juancion, even at 38, and signed for less money . . . .

some happier news: the denver post makes it sound as if junior spivey will soon be a cardinal for one year at about $1.5m. if it happens, i will applaud; good bargain with real upside, might get on base enough to make a good #2 hitter . . .

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Not being a

Bill James cultist, I just can't get into all of these VORPs, ZIPs, WARTs, ASAPs, and the like. I prefer to take the more humanistic approach of "wait and see", despite my reservations on Ponson. Besides, you can crunch all the numbers you want, but no one can tell me they can project them into a ballpark that hasn't even been played in yet.
Re: Spivey...if he does sign, that would make 4 2B; who goes, Miles?

by cardsrul on Dec 23, 2005 12:40 PM EST reply actions

the SABR stuff isn't always right

but it's right more often than not. let's hope it is wrong on encarnacion.

past experience tell us, however, that we are probably going to be disappointed in this player

by lboros on Dec 23, 2005 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

i say miles goes

i heard florida was wanting him before we got him so trade him there for some middle prospect. i do not even want to see that guy put on a cardnals uni. and why is everyone criticizing every move the cards make especially you lboros, it seems like you hate every player the cards have signed, i dont get it. why dont you just let it play out and see what they do once they actually play a game.

bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Dec 23, 2005 12:44 PM EST reply actions

sorry you don't agree w me cards4

i've got reasons for my opinions. hope i'm wrong and all of these acquisitions work out, but i don't think they're going to.

if you think i'm wrong, state your case and back it up. but you have to do better than "wait and see." that's not an opinion.

by lboros on Dec 23, 2005 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

Agreeing with you

I hate to say it lboros, but you are taking on the grinch role this XMas. Everybody was mad that the Cards weren't spending money, and now you are mad at who they pick up.

Mark my words -- Enc. is going to flourish in STL. He finally has a strong team around him that won't put up with his attitude. The Cards gave him three years for okay money and he's comfortable in right field. Maybe we should be thankful that Walt pulled the trigger. It isn't like there were a lot of other options. Sanders may very well be a better player at 38, but I will always take a player with better upside who is younger first.

We need healthy players given our outfield depth. Enc is a baby compared to everyone else. Look at White, Lawton, etc...this is a good deal, and I couldn't be happier that at least our club is going in the right direction.

At least I never have to hear about the Red Sox and their stupid curse ever again.

by aprfool79 on Dec 23, 2005 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

i know, i'm a grinch

and that's just in print. you should hear what the people who actually know me say . . .

re spending money: they refused to spend it on good players, so now they have no choice to spend it on avg to below-avg players.

neither of those patterns inspires optimism. when they spend it on players who improve the team, i can stop grinchin' . . . .

by lboros on Dec 23, 2005 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

What upside?

By the time you're 29, you are what you are.

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 23, 2005 3:06 PM EST up reply actions

LB, Looking forward to your season preview:

"Cards break camp with eight regulars, a starting rotation, a six-man bullpen, and six bench players. No one knows for sure how well they'll do in 2006. We'll have to wait and see. Look for my update to this post sometime in October."

"As for the rest of the division, the other five teams teams each lost and gained players. As with the Birds, no one knows exactly how these moves will pan out. More on this to follow in October."

by salvomania on Dec 23, 2005 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

if you told me in November

that our winter would consist of additions of the likes of Bigbie, Miles, Cruz, Bennett,Rincon, Looper, Ponson, Encarnacion & Spivey, I would've scoffed. Or been tempted to punch you in the face.

But we've had some weird offseasons in recent memory and things still turned out well. I understand why some say wait and see, because we've been suprised so many times now, but from the cold, hard data this offseason doesn't have "smashing sucess" written all over it.

http://www.playahard9.blogspot.com/

by erik on Dec 23, 2005 12:56 PM EST reply actions

estes might mean

that they still deal marquis..if they sign estes..that would be a backload of #5's unless they uses one of them in the pen..but i doubt it..i could still see them dealing JM for mench..then what would we think of the OF...mench..juan,j-rod,biggbie,JEdmonds,so, i dunno i think it could work..

by punchinjudy on Dec 23, 2005 1:05 PM EST reply actions

Disagree on Sanders

$5 mill is the new $3 mill, but I would disagree that Sanders is a better deal than Encarnacion, specifically in their divergent health statuses. I really think Sanders is going to break down quickly, as much as I might not want that to happen, and that his best attributes will be sapped. The second season for the Royals, even in a hitters haven, will not be good for the cost. Encarnacion I see as being a guy getting more healthy (maybe that's optimistic, but tis the season), especially when spelled by the multitude of options on the roster. I like him at the bottom of the order as a vulture for a lot of men-on-base opportunities, and good use will put his OPS in the upper 700s. Everything is not lost!

"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time." - Jim Bouton

by WillieMcGeeModelingCompany on Dec 23, 2005 1:12 PM EST reply actions

Hitter's Haven

The Royals play in a hitter's heaven? Is this backed up by some kind of sabermetric analyis, because I find that hard to believe.

by Zubin on Dec 23, 2005 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

Love that line!

"$5 million is the new $3 million"!!

by sdrone on Dec 23, 2005 1:35 PM EST reply actions

Things are Looking Up

Spivey I'll take. I still give him a lot of credit for his play in Arizona. He was always peskey with the Brewcrew as well. Though, I don't know why he can't stay healthy . . .

Speaking of health, wasn't that the whole problem with Sanders? He's a great guy. He had a mammoth season last year. But he had that injury, a broken leg that really was based on a prior injury (a screw in his ankle) and generally was a sign of his age.

Last year, Sanders played a little more than half the season. While it's true that the Cards are paying twice as much for Encarnacion, they also are getting about twice as many games out of him, twice as many hits, twice as many everything, in fact, except for homeruns (and stolen bases if anyone cares) When Cardsnilly compares averages only, he only tells half the story.

In any event, this team is starting to come together, and the way things look, I think the Cards will continue to be the class of the National League, and poised to become a champion contender with a July acquisition.

Oh, and I'd still be happy to pick up Mench or Monroe. I'm not picky . . .

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Dec 23, 2005 1:40 PM EST reply actions

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

I wanted to throw up a big thanks to lboros before I headed out of town. I had searched a few times for Cardinals blogs and for whatever reason had never found one until a friend pointed me here in late summer.

It was like an early Christmas present, especially for someone who lives outside Chicago, deals with Cubs fanatics constantly, and could only get Cards news off the Post Dispatch website.

This is flat out one of the best baseball blogs I've read. There's new info every day even in the offseason, and each post is a pleasant surprise of in depth, creative, thorough analysis.

Thanks lboros!

by sdrone on Dec 23, 2005 1:41 PM EST reply actions

thank you sdrone

i appreciate that. and believe me, i appreciate dissent and debate. i'm glad that those who like how the team is shaping up are making their voices heard here; balances out me and the other grumps who don't like what we see.

thanks for reading and writing here, to you sdrone and ev'yone else. hope my glum opinions don't drive y'all away . . .

by lboros on Dec 23, 2005 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

I concur...

It's been a bit negative lately (though sometimes you have to be), but overall this is the best blog since Brian at Redbird Nation hung up his spikes. I look forward to your posts every day. Thank you for your witty writing and outstanding analysis!

"I see great things in baseball. It's our game - the American game. It will... Repair (our) losses, and be a blessing to us." Walt Whitman

by MRCARD on Dec 23, 2005 1:56 PM EST reply actions

lbros

i think the site is good...even if it does get negative, gives me something to look at during breaks, and also the latest gossip and rumors..so it's your site say what ya want

by punchinjudy on Dec 23, 2005 2:20 PM EST reply actions

a waste of money

I consider encarnacion and taguchi equal. taguchi makes 900k, encarnacion 5 mil. That means the cardinals just spent 4 million (minus the bench replacement cost of taguchi) for nothing. I don't know why everyone feels so much urgency in signing players now. Players will become available sooner or later.

If the cardinals want to accumulate money for a big name player the person they should be trying to move is izzy--even if they have to eat some cash.

by lerwin1 on Dec 23, 2005 2:23 PM EST reply actions

Taguchi

is a much better fielder than Encarnacion. Encarnacion has much more power than Gooch. Encarnacion is a better hitter than JRod, imho.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Dec 23, 2005 4:10 PM EST up reply actions

One more thanks to LBoros

To echo what others have said, this blog is a godsend. I found it during the Astros-Cards series after Pujols' Game 5 homer. A friend in the office, a SF Giants fan turned me on to the site (it's referenced on the Giants blog). I love it.

And the commentary is right on. Not too negative at all. I've been bitterly disappointed with the offseason. In fact, I felt you were too charitable with the Ponson signing. That is a disaster waiting to happen. I saw him in a Giants uniform. He has no head and no heart. Gutless and we don't need that.

I think TLR and DD do better with reclamation projects of down and out baseball guys. Eck, Welch, Stewart, Mike Moore and Ron Darling were baseball guys, as were Kile, etc. Ponson is not. He's a headcase. I don't see the upside.

Perhaps Looper is different, but if Busch is a launching pad, that's bad news for him.

I buy Cali and Flores as lefty options with Rincon in the mix as well, though I think he's on fumes these days.

I wanted Loretta and I'm not enamored with Spivey. I think 2002 was an aberration and 2006 would be a regression to the mean. Encarnacion is a weak addition, though maybe the Cards might be more aggressive on the bases with him. He's just not productive for all the pre-Dodger hype associated with him. His career OPS speaks for itself.

My concern is Edmonds is getting old - he seemed really old as the season and playoffs wore on last year. And Rolen is an injury risk (sad to say). And Mulder showed his true colors during a pressure situation during Game 6 (Nice throw to third on the bunt - oh wait...). Same thing when he was an Oakland A.

Maybe I'm too cynical, but the Cards will still win the division, but I want more. They were one step away from a World Championship in 2004 and they seem to be regressing. I can't be satisfied with a loss in teh 1st or second round of the playoffs. If you're that close, you have to try to get over the hump.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see the Cards going the other way.

by BozCardsFanSF on Dec 23, 2005 2:25 PM EST reply actions

Re: Spivey

Spivey's OPS over the years:

01... .779
02... .865
03... .759
04... .780
05... .693

It seems to me that his established OPS is at .760-plus, with 2002 being a career year and last year a down year---although he did suffer fractured wrist in July.

by salvomania on Dec 23, 2005 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

Enc's projected ops

I'm not an expert on SABR stats by any means, so please explain to me how encarnacion gets a projected ops 50 points below his career average...what is the basis for that calculation?

by farley503 on Dec 23, 2005 2:57 PM EST reply actions

fair question

part of the answer is that bradbury's system thinks encarnacion was lucky last year, and didn't really hit the ball as well as his statistics showed.

but you're right, that seems like a steep dropoff.

but let me ask you this: if encarnacion posts a .750 ops this year, are you going to feel he was a good addition to the team?

by lboros on Dec 23, 2005 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

Other Q

Is Encarnacion a good addition? No. But is he better than So Taguchi, John Rodriguez and the rest? I think so.

Bradbury's smarter than I am, but his system hasn't been tested all that thoroughly.

by Rob H on Dec 23, 2005 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

re-phrase that question

is juan encarnacion a good acquisition for what is out there? Yes, definitely. there is nothing but a bunch of crap out there. the only good trade candidate is craig monroe in my mind, and they are about even, but i think craiger is a little better than juancion.

bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Dec 23, 2005 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

Enc's projected ops

No, I probably wouldn't be happy with a corner OF at .750 ops...

However, the trend for Cardinals signing these marginal players seems to be that they tend outperform, rather than...inperform??...their expectations (i.e., womack, nunez, suppan, taguchi, other bench players, etc.). Enc's peak seems to be about .280-25-90 (sorry for the old timer's stats), and I think I could live with that. You mentioned Walker's ops last year, but that was very part time.
Put it this way...I would rather have Encarnacion at 3/15 than Johnny Damon at 4/52.

by farley503 on Dec 23, 2005 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

Jacque Jones versus Juan Encarnacion

LB:

Didn't Jacque Jones sign for about the same money with the Cubs? It seems to me that Jones would have been much better since he is a left handed hitter and a better feilder.

This remids me of the Tino Martinez signing. Jock had his back against a wall and was forced to pick up a very average guy at inflated cost just to fill a regular line-up spot.

Bahhh... it would have been better to resign Reggie Sanders for 2 years. Trust me, that dude isn't slowing down anytime soon.

by Zubin on Dec 23, 2005 4:37 PM EST reply actions