sid's sims . . .

by lboros on Dec 22, 2005 7:27 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

the other day i wrote favorably about minnesota nontender candidate kyle lohse:

the thing that really intrigues me about this guy is his list of similar pitchers at baseball-reference. number one is chris carpenter; number 6 is jeff suppan. makes you think he might be the type of pitcher who'd thrive under dave duncan's tutelage. supps seems particularly apt for comparison; similar rates of strikeouts and hits allowed, ditto park-adjusted era+s. check out his record through age 27; very comparable to lohse.

so i go to check sidney ponson's comps, and who's sitting there at #2? jeff suppan. check out supp's career through age 28, ponson's current age; they're the same guy (data courtesy day-by-day database):

	w-l	era	whip	h/9	k/9	k/bb
suppan	62-75	4.90	1.42	9.9	5.0	1.73
ponson	76-91	4.81	1.44	9.9	5.4	1.80

it so happens that after his age-28 season suppan, like ponson, came under the supervision of duncan / la russa. and well we know that in their care supp has been an extremely valuable mid-rotation guy, turning in two career years in a row.

by sheer coincidence, sitting at #4 on ponson's comp list is another pitcher who struggled through age 28, then landed in la russa / duncan's rotation at age 29 and became a much better pitcher: mike moore. data:

	w-l	era	whip	h/9	k/9	k/bb
moore	66-96	4.38	1.40	9.3	5.8	1.75
ponson	76-91	4.81	1.44	9.9	5.4	1.80

the similarity is not quite as striking, but still very close. upon joining the tony / dunc athletics in 1989, moore went 19-11 with a 2.61 era. his record in four years under their management: 66-46 with a 3.54 era.

interesting stuff, and potentially meaningful -- but be careful not to put too much stock into these comps. ev'y case is a little bit diff'nt; neither suppan or moore posted a 6.20 era the year before they became tony / dunc projects, nor did either have serious alcohol and weight problems. . . . at the same time, the ponson signing seems a little less crazy (not a lot, just a little) when you know that there are some successful precedents to recommend it.

but let's not get carried away. if the cards were gonna gamble on a pitcher, they shoulda just gambled on aj burnett -- more chips on the table, but a bigger payday if you win. ponson is a wager strictly for the $2 tables; you might win the bet, but it still doesn't move you any closer to a jackpot.

by the way, sidney's other comps include jeff weaver, jim clancy, livan hernandez, and scott erickson, all of whom had or are having long careers. . . . .

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THERE'S NO DOUBT HE HAS TALENT

AND I REALLY LIKED THE COMPARISON BY THE BALTIMORE WRITER TO DENNY MARTINEZ...

I'M JUST AFRAID THAT HIS COMP IS GOING TO BE MORE COMPARABLE TO LA MARR HOYT!!!

(LA MARR'S MOST COMP LIST INCLUDES CHRIS CARPENTER, MATT MORRIS AND MARK MULDER... NO KIDDING!!!!)

by TOLAXOR on Dec 22, 2005 7:37 AM EST reply actions

all depends on how they use him

If he's gonna be a shot in the dark, let's sign him and see if he has anything left kinda guy, I don't mind it. If WJ and TLR are planning to plug him in and trade Marquis or Supp that's when I get a little queemish. I know WJ said that he's going to be insurance in case Reyes isn't ready, but we'll see how everything plays out

by seagoj on Dec 22, 2005 9:42 AM EST reply actions

all he has to be

is a 5th starter, not a world beater. And at $1M, even at $2.5M those are specialist reliever prices and a steal even for a 5th starter.

Cardinals Diaspora

by Ryan Van Bibber on Dec 22, 2005 9:59 AM EST reply actions

Who's really the most valuable person?

How many other franchises rely so heavily on the ability of their manager and pitching coach? It's phenomenal, really, that a major aspect of the team's financial approach is grounded in the sound belief that the TLR/DD combo can wring top-dollar performances out of bargain bin guys.

I live in Chicago and hear the griping all the time about "guys who suck then go to St. Louis and are good." Not many stop to consider that it's more than a coincidence, though. TLR and Dunc are masters at putting guys in a position to succeed. Not every guy can capitalize on that, but many do. There are very few, if any, other management teams that do what the Cardinals do. Most teams just try to collect talent, pull a few levers, and hope it all works out. Ever read Moneyball? Art Howe was not much more than a figurehead to those teams, according to the book.

All managers can affect a team with motivational ploys and clubhouse chemistry. Their in-game decisions and management of a pitching staff also have varying degrees of influence on a team. As far as affecting positive change in individual players, time and time again, though, I can't think of anyone even on the same level as TLR and Dunc, except perhaps Mazzone and Cox.

I'd love to hear what people think of this and if anyone has other examples of a management team that can claim the same level of success in maximizing player performance.

by flynn on Dec 22, 2005 10:27 AM EST reply actions

whitey herzog was pretty good at it too

especially re pitchers. jo-jo andujar was nothing before whitey, and nothin' after; guys like dave lapoint, greg mathews, jeff lahti, rickey horton, john stuper, and danny cox were champ'ship-worthy hurlers under his mgmnt, but they couldn't stay in the league after moving elsewhere.

i think tlr / dunc actually have a better reclamation record with position players than with pitchers. would make for an interesting study . . . .

by lboros on Dec 22, 2005 11:04 AM EST up reply actions

My first thoughts

Were what Tony Dungy's done with the Colts' defense, and Phil Jackson, which got me thinking about the core superstars.

With the A's, TLR/DD has McGwire & Canseco, here they (now) have Pujols & Edmonds. How much effect on a reclamation project comes from the fact that, for example, in Ponson's case, he knows he doesn't have to be "the guy" or even "the #4 guy" (in connection with having Carpenter & Mulder moreso than Pujols or Edmonds I suppose).

Sir Sidney can come to St. Louis, relax, focus on his rehab, and getting fit. The low price of his contract specifically frees him of the chains that hung around him in both stints in Baltimore.

I always wondered how much of the Braves' pitching success in the early '90s was attributable to the fact that those guys hung out and golfed together all the time. The same sort of pitching camraderie has definitely been here the past few years, I worry that some of it will be lost with MattMo gone though.

You know, in general, the fact that the clubhouse is losing Reggie, Larry & Matt is a pretty big deal. I know we're trying to get younger (and I've ben a big supporter of that trend), but we do need a grizzled funnyman around. I'll have to do some research on who's available that might fit that mold.

by STLEdge on Dec 22, 2005 11:17 AM EST up reply actions

Good points..

re: Carp and Mulder - expanding on your theory, one could say Carp benefitted from his first coupla Cardinal years where Woody Williams and Matt Morris were "the guys" and Woody in turn benefitted from Darryl Kile, who benefitted from perhaps Andy Benes (not sure on that one...)

re: Pujols and Edmonds - benefitted from ????? Who on that 2000 team could be said to have helped Jimmy? Lankford? Renteria? Matheny?

re: losing Sanders, Walker, Morris. Heard it last year about Matheny, Williams, and Renteria didn't we? Surely the leadership mantle has passed to Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, and Carpenter for this year, with Molina seemingly a capable lieutenant.

re: grizzled funnyman - if only the Cards could find a way to get Brett Hull involved.... he'd be perfect.

by flynn on Dec 22, 2005 12:10 PM EST up reply actions

how about

redd foxx

by lboros on Dec 22, 2005 12:19 PM EST up reply actions

John Elroy Sanford

known by his stage name of Redd Foxx (a name derived from his "ruddy complexion" and baseball star Jimmie Foxx). Born December 9, 1922, and died October 11, 1991 of a heart attack.

Not a bad idea, lboros!

by STLEdge on Dec 22, 2005 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

Leadership

Of course, I don't know Pujols, Rolen & Edmonds personally, so whatever I say can be taken with a grain of salt, but I felt like Reggie & Larry brought a peculiar brand of lightheartedness to the clubhouse which the more traditional "leader" guys don't necessarily have. There's no argument from me that Pujols is a Leader with a capital L, he's a cheerleader, first guy out of the dugout on walkoff plays, etc.

I just don't know who the practical joker is in the '06 clubhouse - that's not saying there isn't one, I just don't know who it is.

by STLEdge on Dec 22, 2005 12:21 PM EST up reply actions

re: helping JEd

Who on that 2000 team could be said to have helped Jimmy?

I think that would be the Big Redhead.

The 26th Man

by 26thMan on Dec 22, 2005 7:07 PM EST up reply actions

Good Call.

You got it.

by flynn on Dec 22, 2005 9:03 PM EST up reply actions

TLR/DD have been down this road before

Today's Post-Dispatch brought up an interesting point that TLR and DD had considerable success with Eck and Bob Welch after they underwent treatment for alcoholism.

by steve in georgia on Dec 22, 2005 11:23 AM EST reply actions

Since we're on the subject

of players who made mistakes... why don't the Cards call Matt Lawton? Some guys on ESPN Radio were talking about an interview he did with Sports Weekly. He admits he made a mistake with the 'roids... says he shot up to help his shoulder heal in time for the playoffs. He apologized to the Yankees... and said he can't get a phonecall from anyone. I would rather see him step to the plate than Larry Bigbie.

by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 22, 2005 11:35 AM EST reply actions

lawton

i wouldn't protest to seeing Lawton. He'd fit well in the 2 slot.

by erik on Dec 22, 2005 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

Re: Lawton

It's possible, and I'm just speculating here, that the whole McGwire "cloud" that hangs over the team is one reason they haven't given him a call.

by cardsrul on Dec 22, 2005 11:43 AM EST reply actions

TLR and Dunc have been

nothing but supportive of McGwire... and he won't even come clean.

by Matt @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 22, 2005 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

LaRussa and Duncan's influence

on pitchers has to be divided too. They have done wonders with older pitchers but not with youngsters.

in Oakland they had Ariel Prieto and Todd Van Poppel, both can't miss prospects who didn't pan out

In St. Louis - Alan Benes and Rick Ankiel are two examples who were young had the world at their feet but didnt' develop under Dunc/Larussa combo.

by wcheuk on Dec 22, 2005 11:51 AM EST reply actions

yeah

they also failed to develop jose rijo in oakland, and he came back to kill them in the 1990 world series

in stl, the failures have to include haren --- they didn't see him for what he really was, a confident and intelligent young pitcher with good enough stuff.

that's why i loved herzog so much. he'd stick a rookie in there and tell 'em, "throw strikes or i'll send your ass to double a." so they went out there and challenged hitters. whitey almost forced them to trust their own stuff, not get too cute.

by lboros on Dec 22, 2005 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

One thing

I'm glad to see is that folks are calming down a bit now that we're all starting to realize there is a plan and Walt isn't making these moves in a vacuum or from a position of panic. There is method to what many of us thought was utter madness. Yes, there are still holes to fill and lots of work to do if they want us to believe this will be an October-contending team, but little by little faith in that notion seems to be returning across Cardinal Nation. I'm not saying everthing is hunky-dory yet by any stretch--much of what we're banking on is still a gamble and the money hypocrisy is still maddening--but I do sense a change in attitude amongst many of the faithful in these last couple days. We haven't all been satisfied with what we've acquired, but I think we're figuring out what we have isn't so awful and that Walt is far from done.

by rockin redbird on Dec 22, 2005 12:00 PM EST reply actions

That was...

Well said. I concur.

by flynn on Dec 22, 2005 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

i don't think it was

only the faithful who were discombobulated. i think walter himself got knocked off balance by the burnett thing. immediately thereafter you had these half-assed overtures to grudzielanek and matt morris, which left both players almost pitying the organization. that prob'y wasn't walt's fault; it was the owners.

that in part explains why they overpaid for looper; having missed half a dozen or so opportunities, he was going to bring a player no matter what, even if it meant overpaying to outbid the phillies.

so i'm not really sure there's a plan here; still looks pretty seat-of-pants to me. but the stakes are lower. the opportunity we wanted them to seize --- pile on talent for a series push --- was basically lost when burnett and giles signed elsewhere. so what we're left with is a team with too many holes to win 100 again, but too strong a core to fall below 90 wins. i think your reaction to the ponson thing, rr --- shrug shoulders --- might apply to anything the cards are likely to do between now and july.

by lboros on Dec 22, 2005 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

Re: July

Yeah, I agree with that too. I will be truly surprised if anything major happens before then (and I do love surprises). But I find myself a lot more confident about this team for some reason lately. Mere acceptance? I dunno. I don't feel a fist tightening in my gut every time I think about Our Beloved Birds anymore, though. Sure hope that continues for awhile.

by rockin redbird on Dec 22, 2005 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

Bernie tends

to see it the same way.

by cardsrul on Dec 22, 2005 12:27 PM EST reply actions

And here's

Gordo's take:

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/jeffgordon/story/C491C8DA7D275DBD862570D20053 599E?OpenDocument

by rockin redbird on Dec 22, 2005 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

dan kolb

what do you guys think about taking a chance on dan kolb. he shouldnt command a lot of money even though his agent is scott boras. i really dont know if we should do it because he didnt even pitch well under leo mazzone and bobby cox.

bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Dec 22, 2005 1:24 PM EST reply actions

I thought

that he was a Brewer again already

by Valatan on Dec 22, 2005 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

they non-tendered him

but hope to re-sign him.

by cardsrul on Dec 22, 2005 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

I could not figure him out...

Anyone know why Dan had problems? He was the talk of the league at the end of 2004.

by sdrone on Dec 22, 2005 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

The working theory is

that he wilted under the pressure. In Milwaukee, the Brewers weren't contenders, so he could go about his business flying under the radar. That's the chance you take when you sign one of these one or two-year wonders. You bank on them performing as they did the year before, only to find out it was all a mirage.

by cardsrul on Dec 22, 2005 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

LAWTON...

NOT AS LONG AS MGL WORKS FOR THE TEAM (AND THANK GOODNESS FOR THAT)!!!!

LAWTON IN THE OUTFIELD IS COMPARABLE TO BEA ARTHUR, HIGH ON WHALE BLUBBER, PLAYING LEFT FIELD WITH A CAST IRON OVEN MITT....

by TOLAXOR on Dec 22, 2005 1:35 PM EST reply actions

Just in...

Cross Ron-DL White off the wish list. The Twins signed him...

by cardsrul on Dec 22, 2005 2:28 PM EST reply actions

cardinals salary

espn has the cards salary at $92.2M

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/salaries?team=stl

so that gives us a lot less room to work with than i thought and it is not even with marquis' salary arbitration upgrade. dewitt said the salary will be between $90M and $100M

bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Dec 22, 2005 2:52 PM EST reply actions

sorry

it is $92.9M

bring home a championship to STL

by cards4ever on Dec 22, 2005 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

2005 salary

I believe that is the 2005 total salary. If you add the numbers it totals 69.9 mil. Plus most of the number are the players salary from last year (Pujols has 11mil but is going to get 14mil this year). I would trust lb's numbers on the left bar.

by Just Rope Ball on Dec 22, 2005 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

I think

the only thinkg lboros hasn't factored in is a couple of non-tenders like Seabol.

by sdrone on Dec 22, 2005 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

Gambles

"but let's not get carried away. if the cards were gonna gamble on a pitcher, they shoulda just gambled on aj burnett"

LB:
I disagree 5 years and $60M was just too much for AJ, even in this market. And in some ways, the potential payout (a regular outfeilder for Marquis) is the same.

----------------------------------------------

Just a thought, with only one true regular outfeilder, will there be a guy more valuable to his team than JEd in 2006?

by Zubin on Dec 22, 2005 2:54 PM EST reply actions

Gambling analogy....

There's a big difference between gambling on Burnett and gambling on Ponson. I think LB wrote a couple days ago that Ponson is low risk, middle to high reward while Burnett is high risk, possible extremely high reward.

Its the difference between me ponying up my 50 bucks on the local casino to play some five dollar blackjack or the 20 K that it takes for a seat at the world series of poker. (Ok, so the odds of Burnett panning out to be an ace or better, but you get my drift.)

We have three guys for a FIVE slot: Ponson, Wainwright and Reyes. One of they guys turns out to be a world beater, and you can slot him as high as five.

by Brock20 on Dec 22, 2005 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

Michaels

Just noticed this in the rumors on ESPN:

"The Phillies need pitching, but they're not high on Boston's Bronson Arroyo. Philadelphia GM Pat Gillick is looking to acquire either a No. 4-5 starter or a setup man for Tom Gordon, and he'll probably use Michaels as part of the package to acquire that commodity."

It appears that he should be fairly easy to get. I like the idea of the current rotation and Sid in the Eldred role, but if he can be had easily I wouldn't mind getting Michaels.

by Just Rope Ball on Dec 22, 2005 3:30 PM EST reply actions

how many convicts do we need.

i'm all for forgiving ponson, and even michaels if he came over here, but that would be too weird. a guy who punched a cop and a guy who punched a judge on the same team?

Keep in mind that as great as michaels stats have been, he's only been a part timer.

by erik on Dec 22, 2005 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

Not Marquis..

I should clarify, I wouldn't trade Marquis for Michaels but if they would take Wainwright, Navreson, or Johnson or possible combo with another P it would take it. I don't know if Philly would ask for Marquis but I wouldn't offer him up.

I also like the conduct comment. Would the cards be a model franchise with players like these?

by Just Rope Ball on Dec 22, 2005 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

froget micheals

go for mench

by punchinjudy on Dec 22, 2005 4:28 PM EST reply actions

I like Mench

Texas is always hurting for pitching, and now they are thinking (well maybe not) of giving another pitcher a five-year deal. Anyone remember the last pitcher to get a 5-spot from the Rangers. Mr. Chan Ho didn't do so well, and Mr. Millwood isn't that much better.

It could help us though, since now we have more starting pitchers than we need. Mench would be a good fit for the right price.

At least I never have to hear about the Red Sox and their stupid curse ever again.

by aprfool79 on Dec 22, 2005 8:03 PM EST up reply actions

Lawton is gone

$400K with $1.25 in incentives. We missed the boat. We have no problelm signing ponson, but we pass on Lawton? Hmf. http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20051222&content_id=1286750& vkey=news_sea&fext=.jsp&c_id=sea

by erik on Dec 22, 2005 8:37 PM EST reply actions

If you're gonna miss a boat...

... I don't mind missing this one.

by sdrone on Dec 22, 2005 8:46 PM EST up reply actions

it's not that bad of a boat

400k for a guy with a lifetime .368OBP? IMO, that's missing the boat. Oh, well.

by erik on Dec 22, 2005 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

It's irrational

But I hate that guy. Almost as much as Zambrano.

by bellyscratcher on Dec 22, 2005 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

Off topic question

ANyone have any idea where I might get an AVI or MPEG or something of the Edmonds MLB "I live for this" commercial?

by sdrone on Dec 22, 2005 9:22 PM EST reply actions

How about Byrnes

I like his hustle. Last year was a down year, playing out of a suitcase, but i think he could fit in here and be a fan favorite. I didn't like the idea of jones, lawton, or white. I would also like to take chances on junior spivey and wade miller. To me aaron miles is triple A bound. Any news on Felix Rodriguez front?

by herr28 on Dec 22, 2005 9:36 PM EST reply actions