Blogs
| Final - 7.4.2009 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | X | 5 | 12 | 0 |
|
WP:
Micah Owings
(6 - 8)
SV: Francisco Cordero (20) LP: Brad Thompson (2 - 5) |
||||||||||||
Game 83 Open Thread -- July 4, 2009
by chuckb
on Jul 4, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
in News
410 comments
 |
 |
| Thompson | Owings |
| 4.77 FIP | 5.39 FIP |
On our side, it's a good thing that Thompson has a 56.5% GB% b/c a 2.81 K/9 is just unworkable in the majors. He just can't survive for long allowing everyone to put the ball in play. If the Reds don't hit the ball out of the ballpark, they could certainly single him to death. Thompson has 6 starts so far this season and has an above average game score in only 1 of them. He's been beaten around in his last 2 starts and it seems to be a race between he and Wellemeyer to see who loses his job when Lohse returns from the DL. Wellemeyer seemed to have a leg up before his impressive start a couple days ago so now Thompson's probably ahead by a nose. Here's hoping he pitches well enough today to fall behind Wellemeyer once again.
410 comments | 0 recs
Put me in, coach
by chuckb
on Jul 4, 2009 2:47 AM EDT
in News
158 comments
| PA | AB | H | HR | BB | K | BA | OBP | SLG | UZR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludwick | 116 | 103 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 22 | .204 | .278 | .330 | 2.0 |
| Ankiel | 118 | 111 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 26 | .225 | .271 | .396 | 2.5 |
| Duncan | 105 | 92 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 26 | .217 | .305 | .283 | -2.5 |
| Rasmus | 99 | 98 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 15 | .327 | .327 | .531 | 10.4 |
What’s wrong w/ this picture? Rasmus has the most hits and the fewest Ks and has the fewest PAs of the 4. His slugging % over the month-plus is nearly Ludwick’s and Duncan’s respective OPSes. Now, I’m a little disappointed and frustrated by the fact that he hasn’t walked since May 25 but his OPS is still over .850 over the time period. If the other 3 were hitting, there would be more reason to be concerned about Rasmus’s lack of walks but considering the OPS difference between he and #2 – Ankiel (191 points!) – harping on the lack of walks seems to be nitpicking. Rasmus though is a liability defensively, right? Wrong. He’s the best we’ve got and it’s not even close …AND he plays the toughest, and most important, of the 3 defensive positions. I understand that the guy needs a day off every now and then, but there is absolutely no reason for him NOT to be in the starting lineup every day. Sit him against lefties? Why? So Ankiel and Duncan can play in his stead? Look at the numbers? They’re both lefties as well who struggle against southpaws. Exactly what do we gain by sitting him? There’s no excuse or justification for him not to be in the lineup every day. What more needs to be said?
Good article over at fangraphs re: Pineiro’s metamorphosis this season. Is it sustainable? The article says "yes." It’s meaningful b/c Pineiro will be a free agent at the end of the season. I need to see more in order to be convinced but he’s been fantastic, by and large.
I was glad to see Jarrett Hoffpauir’s promotion and his success last night. Hoffpauir’s always been one of my pets – a guy I always wanted to see get a chance and thought he deserved more than he’s gotten. I even wrote a thread about him about a year and a half ago comparing his minor league numbers to Dustin Pedroia’s. Just to be clear, I never said he’d be the same as Pedroia, just that he had some of the same skills and, though it took him longer to succeed at every level than it did Pedroia, I thought he had a chance to become a solid big leaguer. I’ve since tempered my optimism and he may never get another major league hit, but his walk and hit last night were huge (WPA = .469; Albert’s = .459) and I’m happy for him. Hoffpauir:chuckb::Blake Hawksworth:DanUp.
Finally, I guess I should offer a bit of an explanation for my bizarre post last Sunday. I was clearly responding to the chatter that we were involved in talks for Matt Holliday but I was also preparing to leave on vacation Sunday morning. I put together that thread Saturday morning and never found out about the trade for DeRosa, which happened actually before my Holliday post went up, until Monday or Tuesday when I saw a snippet of someone playing LF for the Cards and wearing number 7. Joe Mather? Nope, he’s out for the year. WTF? Who is this masked man and please, God, don’t let it be Matt Holliday! Anyway, we likely paid a steep price for DeRosa. He’ll help, as I said last Sunday, and if trades are measured by what they do THIS SEASON, we’ll win. It seems, however, that we gave up Chris Perez and either Francisco Samuel or Jess Todd for DeRosa. That ain’t cheap! DeRosa’s probably a type-B free agent at the end of the year so he’s worth a supplemental draft pick but I feel it’s likely that the 2 pitchers will provide more wins, and probably several more, over the next 5-7 years than DeRosa and that supplemental pick will for the Cards. That said, if DeRosa’s win and a half gets us into the playoffs, might it be worth it anyway?
There are many who see trades as zero-sum games – that one team wins the trade and the other, necessarily, loses. I don’t agree, simply b/c the two teams often have different goals – as we and the Indians do now. Ours is to win today while still maintaining the ability to win next year and beyond. Theirs is to win in the future. DeRosa may help us win the division or Wild Card this year and the 2 pitchers may help the Indians be successful in the future and then we would have both gotten what we wanted. Still, I’d have much rather given up only Perez.
One of the trades that people often use as a cautionary tale about making trade deadline deals is one made in 1987 when the Atlanta Braves traded starting pitcher Doyle Alexander to the Detroit Tigers for a pitching prospect named John Smoltz. Alexander, for most of his career, was an OK starting pitcher and Smoltz was a star for a Braves team that won about 74 division championships in a row. He’ll be a Hall of Famer, in all likelihood, and people often point to that trade as a bad one for the Tigers and a great one for the Braves. It clearly was a great one for the Braves, who weren’t going anywhere in 1987. However, Alexander had a 1.53 in 11 starts for the Tigers in 1987. His FIP was 3.20 in those 11 starts – 2nd only to his 1972 season in a 19 year career. Over those 11 starts and 88 IP, he was worth 3.9 wins. The Tigers finished 98-64 that season, defeating the Blue Jays by just 2 games in the AL East. It’s not too much of a stretch to say that Alexander’s acquisition was the difference. Though he didn’t pitch well in the ALCS and they lost to the eventual World Champion Twins, you would have to say that this trade was a winner for the Tigers as well. The Braves and the Tigers had different goals at the time and both came out winners in this trade. Get to the postseason and take your chances.
I think this trade will be measured in much the same way. If the Cards make it to the postseason, both sides will be winners in the trade. If we don’t, however, the Indians win and the Cards overpaid. Wouldn't it be interesting if the outcome of this trade wasn't determined by how DeRosa plays or how the 2 pitchers pitch for the Indians, but rather by how much Rasmus plays over the last 3 months? Hmmm....
158 comments
| 0 recs
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Game 81 overflow thread
by DanUpBaby
on Jul 3, 2009 9:00 PM EDT
823 comments
823 comments | 1 recs
Game 82 Open Thread:
by DanUpBaby
on Jul 3, 2009 6:35 PM EDT
454 comments
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 |
| Pineiro | Bailey |
| 6-9, 3.44 | 1-0, 8.68 |
Homer Bailey just retired in my St. Louis Browns Baseball Mogul league—in the year 2032. At least half of his 4200 strikeouts had to have been my guys, because he was a member of my most nefarious divisional rivals, the Athletics. Here's hoping today is not the day he shows off a fastball/curveball combo that keeps him pitching until he's 45.
If I may be so indulged, an 80 games haiku:
First half surprises
Ankiel, Dunc ten homers
And Rasmus twelve walks
454 comments | 0 recs
Return of Goodemeyer
by DanUpBaby
on Jul 3, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
214 comments
Giving up that home run at the end lends a little realism to the outing—it's like killing off one of the secondary main characters in an action movie so that you can get the romantic leads through unscathed. So I applaud Todd Wellemeyer for his attention to plotting, particularly the way that he wrote in a happy ending.
The Colonel—always an interesting interview, inasmuch as he has probably never seen Bull Durham—is one of the few pitchers who I've seen regularly discuss his velocity in print. His most recent musings on the subject were in this Strauss article, in which he said he was down from "94-96" to the low-90s, but it's a recurring theme; in this MLB.com article from his Kansas City days he uses it as a proxy for his preparedness in Spring Training, noting that he's moved above "88-90" earlier than he usually does in an attempt to make the starting rotation (a preposterous notion.)
It's an interesting tic for a guy whose success last year was attributed to—well, Dan'n'Al 2008, can you take this?
Dan: You know, Al, in the past when we've seen Todd he's been more of a thrower. He just reared back and—but this year you can see him taking a little off so that it moves.
Al: He really is, Dan. He's become a pitcher, not a thrower.
Thanks, guys. For all that talk, then, Wellemeyer is, at the very least, a guy who self-identifies as a hard thrower.
214 comments
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Todd Goodemeyer Overflow Thread
by DanUpBaby
on Jul 2, 2009 9:15 PM EDT
265 comments
As Clay Mortensen rearranges the pin on his voodoo doll...
265 comments | 0 recs
Game 81 Open Thread -- July 2, 2009
by chuckb
on Jul 2, 2009 7:00 PM EDT
in News
597 comments
 |
 |
| Cain | Wellemeyer |
| 4.00 FIP | 4.84 FIP |
597 comments | 0 recs
The NL All-Star Team, according to chuck
by chuckb
on Jul 2, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
in News
327 comments
Catcher: Starter – Yadier Molina, Cardinals. Backups – Geovany Soto, Cubs and Bengie Molina, Giants. Yadi is 2nd in the NL in wRAA and leads the NL in fewest SBA/G. He also has caught 33% of potential base stealers. He’s first in the NL in overall value. Soto is first in the NL in wRAA and, this year, has a respectable CS%. He’s starting to come around after a very slow start. Bengie gets almost all of his value from his 10 HRs as he has walked just 3 times all year – a number that makes only Jeff Francoeur jealous.
First Base: Starter – Albert Pujols, Cardinals. Reserves – Adrian Gonzalez, Padres and Prince Fielder, Brewers. Duh! Is there any doubt? The best player in the game is having the best season of any position player in the game. There’s really not a lot of arguments to be had about the next 2 either, as both Fielder and Gonzalez have been worth more than 10 runs more than their closest competition – Todd Helton.
Second Base: Starter – Chase Utley, Phillies. Reserves – Brandon Phillips, Reds and Freddy Sanchez, Pirates. There’s a good argument for Orlando Hudson of the Dodgers here but, let’s face it, there’s gotta be a Pirate and there’s gotta be a Red. The 3 of them hover together – Phillips getting most of his value from his defense, Hudson losing some b/c of his, and Sanchez being pretty good at both. RAR has Sanchez and Hudson being nearly dead even, just slightly behind Phillips, due to Phillips’ outstanding defense, so the tie goes to the player on the team who needs a rep.
Shortstop: Starter – Hanley Ramirez, Marlins. Reserve – Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies. This is a blowout, and it almost doesn’t really matter who the reserve is but Tulowitzki gets a lot of value from his 12 homers and solid defense. Despite a .330 average, Miguel Tejada’s defense has been so bad so as not to justify his inclusion on the team. Ryan Theriot’s offense is slightly below average so Tulo gets the honor. For those who haven’t been paying attention, Ramirez is a stud!
Third base: Starter – David Wright, Mets. Reserves – Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals and Mark Reynolds, D-backs. Wright is an absolute stud; I don’t care that he just has 4 homers. He’s still sporting a .939 OPS and a .412 wOBA. He’s about 22 runs above average offensively, even w/ just the 4 homers. Zimmerman keeps it close b/c he’s played spectacular defense and Reynolds is right there b/c of his 21 dingers. I know his defense isn’t particularly good and that he strikes out about 114% of his PAs, but his wOBA is .393. He belongs…period. There are good arguments to be made for Casey Blake and Pablo Sandoval. Unfortunately, the keystone is loaded this year.
Outfield: Starters – Matt Kemp, Dodgers; Raul Ibanez, Phillies; and Justin Upton, D-backs. Reserves – Ryan Braun, Brewers; Carlos Beltran, Mets; and Hunter Pence, Astros. There’s little doubt that Ibanez and Upton deserve to start as they’ve been tremendous offensive players and above average (I know, I can’t believe it either w/ Ibanez) defensive players to this point. Kemp’s been very good offensively and an absolute Rasmus-esque stud defensively in CF and has been 35 RAR this season. He gets the nod, therefore, over Braun who, despite tremendous offensive numbers, has been slightly below average defensively this year. Pence is not just a token Astro representative. He deserves it based on being 16 RAA on offense and 3 RAA on defense. He’s been absolutely terrific and deserves to be on the team whether the Astros have 5 reps or whether he’s their lone rep.
Pitchers: Starter – Tim Lincecum, Giants; Reserves – Javier Vazquez, Braves; Josh Johnson, Marlins; Dan Haren, D-backs; Joel Pineiro, Cardinals; Chad Billingsley, Dodgers; Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies; Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers; Heath Bell, Padres; Brian Wilson, Giants; Francisco Rodriguez, Mets; and Rafael Soriano, Braves.
Among the starters, I looked at their value as determined by RAR and WAR b/c there’s a real delineation between those starters who have been great AND thrown a lot of innings and the pitchers who have either been good and thrown a lot of innings or been great and thrown fewer innings. The top 7 pitchers in terms of value have all been great and thrown at least 92.2 IP. They’ve all been worth at least 2.4 WAR whereas the next highest starters sit at 1.9 WAR. They’re all in the top 8 in the NL in terms of FIP and, again, there’s a big jump (.36 runs) to the #9 starter in the NL.
The 5 relievers were a little more difficult and many of you will doubtless note that I left Ryan Franklin, he of the 0.92 ERA off the list. That was tough to do. I again used FIP, RAR, and WAR as well as WPA to help me select this group. Franklin’s 3.20 FIP is solid, but distinctly higher than the 5 relievers who made the list. Franklin’s thrown fewer innings than the 5 who made it and, as a result, has been worth fewer RAR and WAR than the group who made it. The bottom line is that there have been a number of very good relievers in the NL during the first half but this seems to be the best of the lot.
My batting order would be as follows:
- Ramirez -- SS
- Utley -- 2B
- Wright -- 3B
- Pujols -- 1B
- Upton -- RF
- Kemp -- CF
- Ibanez -- LF
- Lincecum -- P
- Molina -- C
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Louis
|
44 | 39 | .530 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
43 | 38 | .530 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
Cincinnati
|
40 | 39 | .506 | 2 | Won 1 |
|
Chicago
|
39 | 39 | .500 | 2.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Houston
|
38 | 41 | .481 | 4 | Lost 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
37 | 44 | .456 | 6 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.4.2009 at 9:55 PM EDT)
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
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