Have you ever misplaced something? I do it all the time.  My hands seem to have thoughts and a will all their own.  I tend to be a very fastidious person; everything has a place and everything should be in said place.  Not being able to find something bothers the hell out of me. 

Where did I put it?  It should be in this drawer.  I had it earlier today.  Retrace your steps.  I came home.  I walked over to my desk.  I was on the internet.  I. . . hell, I don't remember where I put it.  O wait.  Yes, it is in my pocket.

My short term memory is less than exemplary so keeping everything in it's designated area is very helpful for me.  The problem is shiny things distract me.  That may make me sound like a twit, which I'm not, but I do have a very short attention span.  If I don't watch myself put something away and mentally check that off my list, I'll quickly hop to the next item on my to-do list without resolving the previous task. 

Despite the last two games, the Cardinals are pretty damn shiny right now aren't they.  They're fun to watch.  I haven't sat down for a game yet where I thought, "OK, tonight we get pummeled." They've the best record in the NL Central.  Before the season, I thought they'd win about 70 games.  I'd like my crow medium well, please. 

That outfield that looked so iffy and unsure before the season, they've given prognosticators the middle finger, metaphorically speaking, of course.  From left to right, the outfield positions have OPS marks of .789, .882 and 1.026 -- little better than anyone expected.  The rotation that we were all concerned about has the 5th best ERA in the bigs with a 3.51 and a 130:58 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Can I get some humble pie on the side. 

Everything is going so well.  It's so. . . shiny. . .

Wait, I kinda glazed over there.  Where was I?  No, no this wasn't all supposed to be about how the Cardinals are coalescing as a team.  It was about distractions.  Well, not the distractions themselves so much as the things they've distracted from.

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come on you cardinals, score some more runs . . . . . see you back in st. louis later on, team.

Lohse	De La Rosa
3-1, 3.79	0-1, 20.25

good chance of a rain delay today, but little chance of a rainout; it's cloudburst weather. whatever precipitation we get will be brief.

overflow thread programmed to open automatically about 2 hours into the game. i should be close to the field; look for me behind the cards' dugout.

heads up from will carroll: he’ll have an interview today with cards’ assistant gm john abbamondi on Baseball Prospecus radio. you can download the show here.

last night’s game . . . . . where to start? they squandered too many scoring chances; that pattern continues. for the second time this year, pujols made a fielding misplay that cost the cardinals a late lead. above all, isringhausen blew another save and took another loss. i’m not trying to downplay the concern over the bullpen, because it’s serious; they need to get that problem under control before it starts costing them bushels of games. but it hasn’t cost them bushels so far; it only seems that way. i can really only fault the pen for 2 losses: last night’s, and the april 25 loss to the astros. in both games, the cards’ win expectancy was above 90 percent until the bullpen got involved. have there been other blown saves? sure, but no bullpen is perfect; you can’t hold every lead or preserve every tie. the cards have played a lot of close games this year, and they’ve won more than their share.

we tend to lose sight of that fact when we witness maddening failure as we did last night; we tend to forget how often the bullpen has come through and sealed a win --- as it did just a couple nights previous, on monday, when four relievers pitched 6 innings of 1-run ball and enabled the cards to steal a very tenuous win. or the night before that, in the sunday night ESPN game, when the relievers held the cubs to 1 run over 4 innings and brought home a 5-3 victory. last night’s defeat left the bullpen with a net WPA of about +0.23 for the season ---- not great, but far from terrible. and Baseball Prospectus’s win-expectancy metric, WXRL, has the pen at about +1 win for the year after last night. and both metrics look prettier when you eliminate brad thompson’s stats (0-1, 7.71 era as a reliever) from the equation. does the bullpen have issues? absolutely. but let’s keep them in perspective; the pen isn’t killing the team.

yet.

i might be telling a different story in a week or two, however, if they don’t get izzy out of the closer’s role. here’s the statistic that scares me about him: only 11 percent of his strikes have been swing / misses this year. throughout his career, that figure has been at 18 or 19 percent; even in 2006, 16 percent of his strikes came on whiffs. he’s just not missing bats anymore. here’s how it breaks down on a per-pitch basis:

his offerings are running into bats nearly 50 percent more often than they did last year, and 33 percent more often than they did even during izzy’s peg-legged 2006 season. the league whiff-per-pitch average is 9.9 percent, meaning izzy is well below average this season. it's not just a case of a few off games, or a few unlucky hits that have fallen in. isringhausen isn't the same pitcher he used to be, not by a longshot --- he can’t throw it past hitters anymore. and for that reason, the cardinals can’t keep sending him out there to protect leads.

before i go on: i don’t share the impassioned and unhealthy hatred for is’hausen that is so regrettably common among cardinal fans. he’s the most dependable closer in franchise history; his failure rate has been lower than hrabosky’s, sutter’s, or worrell’s and about even with lee smith’s. he’s appeared in 19 postseason games for the cards and only cost them one --- the kent walkoff homer in game 5 of the 2004 nlcs. the guy’s a great pitcher and a class act; sure it’s frustrating to see him blow games, but he doesn’t deserve the personal abuse that gets heaped on him. spew venom if it makes you feel better; i can’t stop you. but it says more about you than it does about izzy. to me, that guy’s a winner in every respect.

unfortunately, he’s no longer getting the job done; for the team’s sake, he’s got to be replaced. it will take a while (maybe weeks, maybe months) before la russa comes around to that conclusion; when he finally does, what options will he have? a quick look:

• chris perez. after last night’s game he has a 1.72 era at memphis, with twice as many strikeouts (20) as hits allowed (10). he’s got a dominating combo of pitches (fastball-slider) and a mean streak. perez still walks too many guys, but if duncan can get todd wellemeyer to throw strikes than he ought to be able to do the same with this rookie. he’d be my first choice; get him on up here. but hey, speaking of wellemeyer . . . . .
• todd wellemeyer. think outside the box w/ me here. welley has been unhittable in the first inning of his starts in 2008 --- 26 batters faced, 2 hits, 2 walks, 9 ks, no runs allowed. in the one-inning closer’s role, he could be fearsome. there’s also the fact that, pitching out of the cardinal bullpen last year, wellemeyer posted a 1.26 era and held opposing hitters to a .174 average (albeit in a tiny sample of only 14.1 innings). if the team decides that perez still isn’t ready because of his control issues, my second choice would be wellemeyer. has he been good in the rotation? sure --- but let’s not act as if he’s irreplaceable. in 7 outings to date he has 2 quality starts; the cardinals have a pitcher at triple A (reyes) who can pitch at the back of a big-league rotation and another on the current roster (parisi) who probably can, too. this is my second choice. 
• kyle mcclellan. he didn’t exactly cover himself in glory last night; in fact, his line was nearly identical to izzy’s (one single, one triple, one out). the league is still just getting to know mcclellan, and there’s a pretty good chance he will start losing effectiveness once the hitters have a book on him. and let’s not forget, we’re talking about a guy who as of this time last year was in class A. but his k / bb data are great, he has only yielded 2 extra-base hits so far, and he’s kept 8 of 10 inherited runners from scoring. he’d be risky, but what the hell; they stuck a rookie out there (wainwright) last time izzy went down, and it worked out ok. my 3d choice.
• braden looper. he has experience in the job but was never particularly good at it; too valuable now as an innings eater in the rotation. leave him where he is.
• anthony reyes. no way. he’s not suited to it, and the manager doesn’t trust him.
• ryan franklin. if an when isringhausen gets replaced, franklin is probably going to get the first crack at the job by default. it’ll make a lot of folks foam at the mouth; i won’t like the decision either, though i’ll try to keep my outrage in check. there's a decent chance franklin can do a passable job in the short term. if dave weathers can close in the big leagues (he converted 33 of 39 opportunities last year), i reckon ryan franklin might be capable of it too. understand, i’m not endorsing this option; i think it’s a terrible idea. but i’m preparing myself to live with it.
• jason motte. like perez, he has twice as many strikeouts (24) as hits allowed (11) at triple A; he has walked just 4 men in 15 innings. but he’s got less than 2 years’ experience as a pitcher and hasn’t yet developed a quality second pitch to play off his scorching fastball. i love what i’ve seen so far, but i need to see more before i entrust him w/ a high-leverage role.
• mark worrell. only 4 saves last year at memphis, none this year. vulnerable vs left-handed hitters. not an option.
• al hrabosky. madness never dies.

so how would you handle it? vote below. i'll be at the game this afternoon, cheerfully neglecting my responsibilities; a win would give 'em three series in a row and sweep away last night's frustration. temporarily, at least. . . .

bullpen's having a tough series ---- aside from villone and parisi, that is  . . . .  rockies lead it 4-3 and are still batting.

cards lead it 3-0, halfway through; couple more runs would be nice. not that i'm greedy or anything . . . .

Wainwright	Francis
3-1, 2.60	0-3, 5.26

here's a rematch of the opening day that wasn't; rained after 3 or 4 innings. it might rain again tonight, but they should be able to get it in.

ankiel's throw in the first inning was more than just a pretty exhibition of throwing prowess; it got looper out of a 1st-inning jam. the first two men had reached against looper in that inning with the cards leading only 1-0; the next hitter would have been garrett atkins, the rocks' leader in HR and RBI, with looper already up around 20 pitches for the inning. ankiel got looper out of that confrontation. by the time he took the mound again, he led 4-0.

Morning, folks.  I don't really know what to say about the game last night.  Rick made two of the greatest throws you'll ever witness in your life, Looper was great, Tony probably should have told him to hit the showers after the eighth, rather than sending him back out there, and Ryan Franklin scares the living hell out of me. 

Okay.  That about covers it.  I haven't been keeping up with my draft writing, (some of you may have minded, others, not so much) so I wanted to put up a little bit of an update on how some of the chips are beginning to fall.  We're just about a month out from the draft, and we can look now and see pretty well how things are shaping up.  So, without further ado: 

Gordon Beckham has been the story of the college season.  He's pretty much a shoo in for Player of the Year honours, and now has no chance of falling anywhere near the Cardinals' drafting position.  Some have projected him as going as high as the Royals at #3, but it would surprise me a bit if Kansas City took him.  I think the Royals will be hard pressed to pass over Aaron Crow.  He's an in state product, and despite his recent struggles, he's still shown exactly how dominant he can be at times this year.  Beckham could go anywhere between 4 and 8, though.  He makes sense anywhere in there. 

Pedro Alvarez, the #1 talent coming into the season, suffered a broken hand early in the year, and looked to possibly be losing some money as a result.  It doesn't appear, however, that that's really the case, as he's still looked at as being a top 3 sort of pick.  He's been solid but not great this season, with less power than in the past, but that's to be expected with the type of injury he sustained. 

Probably the biggest surprises to this point has been the fall off of two top high school prospects.  Two of the three players I wrote about as "home run" picks, have really struggled and seen their stocks fall. 

Tim Melville, the right handed pitcher from Wentzville, has had a rough spring, although he's turned it around a bit lately.  He has been very inconsistent, with his velocity fluctuating significantly, at times dipping down into the mid 80s, whereas he had previously been solidly in the low 90s, and reaching even higher.  The velocity has come back a bit recently, and personally, I'm not shocked at a high school senior having difficulty finding consistent mechanics and feel.  There's a good chance he's around at 13 now, and I would still like to see the Cards take a chance on him. 

The other player that's fallen off, and much more dramatically, is Harold Martinez, the high school shortstop out of Miami.  He's been absolutely brutal this spring, and has fallen almost completely out of consideration as a first round pick.  He still has the picture perfect swing that made him such a well thought of prospect in the first place, but has looked at times this season as if he's only trying to make a perfect swing, rather than trying to actually hit a ball.  Most pundits now think his stock has fallen so far he's almost guaranteed to got to Miami U. and try to build his stock in college.  I must say, though, that if he were sitting around in the, say third or even maybe second round, I would be sorely tempted to take the kid and buy him out of his college commitment.  No later than the third, because you want to use a protected pick, in case he doesn't sign, but I can think of much worse risks.  He still profiles as a dynamic third baseman down the line, and you very well might be able to pick him up with a value pick now, rather than where he was originally slated to go. 

Among high schoolers who are climbing, rather than falling, two names really stand out: Kyle Skipworth and Casey Kelly.  Skipworth is a left handed hitting, legitimately five tool catcher from California.  He entered the season as one of the more intriguing prospects in the draft, and has really solidified that standing this year.  He's being projected to go in the top 7-8 picks, and there have been murmurs of him going really, really high, like top three.  Kelly is probably the second best prep shortstop in the draft this year, behind Tim Beckham.  There are still some questions about Kelly's bat, specifically his ability to make consistent contact, but the tools are very real.  He's a polished, above average defender, and has at least average, and maybe better, raw power.  The Reds, a team known for taking high schoolers in the draft, appear to be a pretty solid destination for Kelly at #7, although it's still tough to say Kelly has risen that high, given that he came in as a late first round/ supplemental guy. 

The biggest riser of all has been Buster Posey, the catcher out of Florida State.  Posey, you may recall, is the player who was previously a shortstop and converted to catcher during the 2007 season.  He's had a monster year, and has improved in all facets of his game, to the point that it's actually possible the Rays may take him #1 overall.  They're certainly considering it, and he would be a pretty decent fit there, as catcher is one of the very few positions that the Rays' farm system isn't very well stocked. 

One of the guys I really liked for the Cardinals in the supplemental round, Zach Putnam, RHP University of Michigan, has improved his stock nicely this spring.  He's shown the same good velocity and plus sink on his fastball that he's always had, but his splitter has improved all out of measure, becoming a truly dominant out pitch.  He may still be a reach at 13, but definitely not as much as he previously was.  The more I look at what he's accomplished this season, the more I like Putnam.  With his improved splitter, he now has two plus pitches and a third that grades about solid average, in his slider.  He had a very good repertoire before, and it's only gotten better.  Again, I don't know if he would be a good value at 13, and I'm always hoping for more of a home run, usually high school, pick, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear the Cards call his name in June. 

Another pitcher I like, Tanner Scheppers, RHP Fresno State, has also moved up the draft boards this year.  He now looks as if he'll most likely go before 13, possibly to Oakland or Texas.  Scheppers has shown good command of his power repertoire this season, while other, similar pitchers, such as Shooter Hunt and Ryan Perry, have struggled significantly to find the plate.  Scheppers is now seen as being probably about the third or fourth best overall pitcher on the board, after guys like Crow and Matusz. 

A couple of other risers:

Jemile Weeks, 2b, Miami- Back when I covered college position players, I thought Weeks was a back end of the first round/ supplemental guy.  He's improved his standing a bit, to where he'll probably go in the 17-21 range.  I'm not sure if he's still a reach at 13; probably a little bit.  Still, he plays a premium position on the defensive spectrum, and he would move very quickly.  The Cards could do worse than to try and fill their hole at second long term with Rickie's younger brother. 

Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky U- Friedrich's tough to get a handle on; he came into the year looking as if he could go anywhere from 10 to 25, and there's still a ton of debate on the kid.  Teams really like the strikeouts, and he isn't walking a ton this year, but he still doesn't have great velocity, and he has been a bit inconsistent this season.  However, very few pitchers are performing very well at the moment, and Friedrich is, so you almost have to think his stock is rising, just due to the fact that he's pitching better than most others right now.  I think he might be a nice fit for Oakland at 12, but I still can't really tell where he's going to go. 

Aaron Shafer, RHP, Wichita State- Shafer has pitched very well this season, particularly of late, and he has some of the best stuff in the draft.  He still scares the hell out of me, though.  Why, you ask?  Shafer's delivery has always been described as 'clean', and 'effortless', and yet he's had a tough time staying healthy.  Guys with that profile worry me; I tend to think there's an injury just around every corner.  I will say, though, that Shafer does have big time stuff, and the best name in the draft. 

Overall, most of the big risers this year have been collegians, while a lot of the prepsters have fallen off.  Actually, it's tough to say the big risers, because this has been kind of an odd year.  There have been a couple of truly outstanding performances, (see Beckham, Gordon and Posey,) but it's mostly been a few players performing decently, while a whole bunch of others have played themselves back into the middle of the pack. 

For whatever it may be worth, here are few players I'd like to see the Cards target: 

Tim Melville- I still think he's a huge talent.  He's neither the first, nor the last, 18 year old to struggle with his physicality and the stress of a draft hanging over his head. 

Zach Putnam- He certainly fits the bill, and I think he's better than he got credit for. 

Jemile Weeks- Locking up second base for awhile doesn't sound too bad...

Ryan Perry- Perry, a RHP from Arizona State, I believe, has huge stuff, but has had a tough time finding the plate this year.  If he falls, he could be a great value pick in the second round. 

Harold Martinez- He's been awful, but could be a steal in the third round.  I don't think talent just evaporates.  Again, not the first high school senior to struggle going into the draft. 

Kyle Skipworth- if he falls, which he won't, he's too unique a talent to ever pass up, no matter how deep you are at catcher.  He won't fall, though. 

Aaron Hicks- The two way star from high school in Florida, Hicks is definitely raw, but has freakish, Jose Reyes like tools.  Awfully tempting. 

Crap.  I've got to go.  sorry to just cut off like this, but I really should have been done with this quite a while ago.  I do love listening to myself ramble, though. 

G'bye.

into the late innings we go; right side of the pen is well rested tonight. but who pitches to helton?

i skimped on the overflow threads last night; one more coming in a few innings. pour it on, cards . . . .